Author: Torgomian Varazdat

ON TURKEY’S NEW UNDERTAKING IN SOUTH CAUCASUS
Ruben Safrastyan

"Noravank" Foundation
29 September 2008

The five day long war in August between Russia and Georgia have
resulted important changes in South Caucasus. It is still early
to speak about the final results; however, it is already known the
main tendency – strengthening of Russia’s geopolitical position in
the region.

Displaying its political will and decisiveness and winning the war
Russia has reestablished its role in South Caucasus as the main power
center which it had lost at the end of the last century. It has not
only succeeded in furthering the establishment of the two new states –
South Ossetia and Abkhazia – in the region, but also in "legitimating"
deployment of its troops in their territories. Georgia, which in the
period of M. Sahakashvili’s presidency has became the main ally of
the west, namely the US, not only suffered irreversible loses in the
region, but also lost fighting capability of its armed forces and
efficiency of the military infrastructures.

Among the closest neighbor states of South Caucasus Turkey was the
first to respond the geopolitical changes in the region. That respond
appeared in the form of establishing South Caucasus Stability and
Cooperation Platform (SCP). The author of the undertaking is Professor,
Racep Tayyip Erdoghan’s closest advisor, chief architect of the=2
0Justice and Development party’s governing circle’s foreign policy
course who is also considered to be one of the leading geopoliticians
and strategists of Turkey. In particular, he is the author of
a distinctive geopolitical conception called "Turkey’s strategic
depth" which aims at theoretically grounding the necessity to develop
geostrategy directed at creating spheres of influence around Turkey so
reestablishing its privileges over its neighbors due to its favorable
geography and magnificent imperial history.

In the beginning stage Turkey’s suggestion was envisaging to include
the US into the structure, besides the three South Caucasian countries,
Turkey and Rusia, however, later on, as a result of discussions among
the leaders of Russia and Turkey in Moscow, was elected 3+2 format –
Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Russia and Turkey.

In this case the situation was quite different: Turkey was responded
positively by all the possible participants of the Platform, besides
Georgia. The later one refused to take part in any undertaking
together with Russia, as Russian troops were on its territory, which
is politically quite perceptible. It is noteworthy that Azerbaijan has
not officially appeared with any suchlike objections in connection with
Armenia. It is clear that it is the result of Turkey’s tough pressure.

However, from the geopolitical standpoint it is much more important
that Turkey=E 2s undertaking is supported by Russia. As a matter of
fact, this circumstance is conditioned by Turkey’s readiness to exclude
the US from the Platform participants. We think that Russia positive
approach to SCP is only of tactical character as it is difficult to
imagine that country’s geostrategic prospective involving another
active player in South Caucasus beside itself. This circumstance
makes a ground to characterize SCP’s plan as hardly realizable.

We suppose that if Turkey and Russia being well aware of that
circumstance, nevertheless actively further preliminary works of
founding SCP, they have an objective to use that process in favor of
their tactic interests. Turkey tries to assure its neighbors and the
world that the foreign policy it carries out is based on active and
multi-polar world order perceptions, just like it befits the successor
state of the Ottoman Empire. At the same time SCP processes provide
a chance for Turkey to have "privilege" in the centuries-old struggle
with its regional and historical rival Iran – wakening its positions
in Caucasus. Russia spares no efforts to hinder the US entrance into
South Caucasus.

As for us, our involvement into SCP processes will raise Armenia’s
geopolitical "value" in the region. Accordingly, Turkey will get
more interested in settling its relations with Armenia which will
further mollifying "enforcement" po licy implemented by Turkey. As
it is known, the expression of that "enforcement" policy is the three
preconditions put forward by Turkey and for it settlement of diplomatic
relations and opening of borders are conditioned by realization of
these preconditions. By the way, the visit of Turkey’s president
to Armenian provided a favorable chance to develop dialogues over
normalizing the relations.

SERZH SARGSYAN AND CONDOLEEZZA RICE MET

A1+
[01:47 pm] 25 September, 2008

On September 24 Serzh Sargsyan had a series of meetings on the
sidelines of the 63rd UN General Assembly in New York. During his
meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice the sides
discussed a wide range of issues concerning U.S.-Armenia relations
and regional developments.

Serzh Sargsyan expressed gratitude to the U.S. government for
the show of support to Armenia. In response the Secretary of
State noted that Armenia is progressing in political reforms and
that serves as a good basis for further contributions. The sides
touched upon the Nagorno-Karabakh peace settlement process in the
format of the OSCE Minsk Group. Serzh Sargsyan reaffirmed Armenia’s
readiness to peacefully solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through
negotiations. Condoleezza Rice stressed the importance of the
peaceful solution to the Karabakh conflict and underlined that the
peaceful settlement will contribute to the establishment of peace
and cooperation in the region. Rice congratulated Sargsyan for his
initiative aimed at regulating ties with Turkey and expressed hope
that the visit of the Turkish president to Armenia and the recent
meetings of Armenian and Turkish officials will set grounds for
future cooperation.

Before his meeting with Condoleezza Rice, Serzh Sargsyan had a meeting
with Dutch premier Yan Peter Balkenende during which the premier
touched upon the recent discussions regarding Armenian Genocide in
the Dutch parliament.

Serzh Sargsyan also met with the OSCE Minsk Group copresidents. The
sides discussed the Nagorno-Karabakh peace settlement, as well as
issues concerning the possibility of the next meeting of the presidents
of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In his meeting with president of Serbia Boris Tadich, the sides
mentioned the many common historical-cultural ties between Armenians
and Serbs, the cordial ties between the peoples of both countries and
touched upon the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. After that, Serzh
Sargsyan had a meeting with Latvian president Valdis Zatlers. The
presidents expressed content with the level of bilateral relations
and underlined the importance of realizing direct flights between
the capitals of both countries.

COURT SUSPENDS EXAMINATION OF VARDAN JHANGIRIAN’S CASE

Noyan Tapan

Se p 22, 2008

YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 22, NOYAN TAPAN. The court examination of the case
of Vardan Jhangirian, brother of the former prosecutor general of
Armenia Gagik Jhangirian, has been suspended because of V. Jhangirian’s
health problems.

The Yerevan Criminal Court presided over by Judge Mnatsakan Martirosian
took this decision on September 22, thus granting a petition of the
defence, NT correspondent was informed by the press service of the
RA Cassation Court.

V. Jhangirian did not attend the court sitting scheduled for the same
day due to deterioration of his health.

To recap, V. Jhangirian is charged under Article 316 part 2 of the
RA Criminal Code: commiting violence (dangerous for life and health)
against a representative of the authorities.

Georgiandaily, NY

Paul Goble’s Window on Eurasia Shorts for September 20 – Georgian Events

September 20, 2008

Some news items about events in and around Georgia during the last
week which have attracted less attention than they deserve:

RUSSIAN BANK RESERVES HIT FIRST BY GEORGIA, THEN BY WORLD FINANCIAL
CRISIS. Prior to the war in Georgia, the Russian Central Bank’s hard
currency reserves had been growing approximately five billion
U.S. dollars a week in 2008. In the six weeks since the conflict
began, they have declined more than 40 billion, initially because of
the war and more recently because of the world financial crisis.

TWO GEORGIANS IN FIV E THINK TBILISI COULD HAVE AVOIDED CONFLICT.
According to a telephone poll conducted by Georgian IPResearch in
early September, 42.4 percent of 450 Georgians surveyed said that
Tbilisi could have avoided the conflict if the Georgian government had
acted differently. Three out of four said the international community
had played a key role in stopping Russian aggression, more than 70
percent said the United States is the "most friendly" to Georgia or
any foreign country, and more than four out of five said they expect
NATO to extend a membership action plan (MAP) to Georgia in the near
future.

MEDVEDEV SAYS GEORGIAN WAR SHOWS NEED FOR MILITARY UPGRADES. President
Dmitry Medvedev said that the performance of the Russian military in
Georgia shows that the Russian army must be significantly upgraded
both in terms of equipment and frequency of e exercises. His statement
comes on the heels of a series of articles by military commentators
who have been sharply critical of the Russian army’s performance
( 51134340.html and
).

RUSSIANS, GEORGIANS DISPUTE WAR LOSSES. As is the case in almost all
military conflicts, each of the sides says the other is understating
its losses and overstating the number of casualties it inflicted. In
this case, some Russian articles have suggested that as many as 3,000
Georgian soldiers died in South Ossetia, a number that is 20 times
more than Tbilisi acknowledges, and Georgian sources say that the real
losses of Russian forces were as much as five times greater than
Moscow has said. For a survey of the debate and the various figures
being offered, see

GEORGIA PLANS TO BUY MORE FROM UKRAINE, LESS FROM RUSSIA. Valery
Chchelashvili, the secretary general of GUAM, said that Georgia will
purchase less from Russia and more from Ukraine, with the latter
country moving from third or fourth place in terms of bilateral trade
to first.

CIS DEFENSE GROUP CAN’T INCLUDE ABKHAZIA, SOUTH OSSETIA UNTIL ALL
MEMBERS RECOGNIZE THEM. Moscow may want to include the two states it
has recognized to be included in the CIS Collective Security Group,
but it cannot do so until all the current members of that organization
extend diplomatic recognition to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, according
to Nikolai Bordyuzha, the secretary general of that
organization. Bordyuzha’s statement raises questions about some of the
provisions of the bilateral accords the Russian government has signed
with these two republics.

TURKEY, IRAN EXPAND DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS IN CAUCASUS. Both Turkey and
Iran have sought to expand their diplomatic presence and political
leadership in the southern Caucasus in the wake of the conflict in
Georgia, with Ankara presenting a new "stability platform" include
most states in the region and Iran reaching out to the three states in
the region and to Muslim republics within Russia
( 7962 and
).

GE ORGIA’S AZERBAIJANIS DON’T SEEK AUTONOMY. Azerbaijanis represent the
largest ethnic minority in Georgia, but they have been overwhelmingly
loyal to Tbilisi. During and after the conflict with Russia, the
leaders of this community repeatedly stressed that they, unlike other
groups such as the Armenians of Georgia, do not have any interest in
an autonomous formation.

‘KOMMERSANT’ SAYS NATO DEFENDS SAAKASHVILI FROM INTERNAL ENEMIES. An
article in Moscow’s "Kommersant" says that NATO is doing more to
protect Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili from his domestic
enemies than from his foreign opponents, a suggestion that appears
intended to provoke discussions in NATO capitals about the Western
alliance’s involvement with Tbilisi. Meanwhile, Vladimir Zhirinovsky,
the flamboyant leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
told Prime Minister Vladimir Putin that Washington has already decided
to replace Saakashvili with Irakli Alasania, who, Zhirinovsky said,
has been working for the CIA for a decade.

CAUCASUS DIASPORA GROUPS IN TURKEY CONDEMN GEORGIA. Eighteen Caucasus
diaspora groups in Turkey, which represent communities numbering some
five million people in all, have denounced Georgia’s actions and
welcomed Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Their
declaration suggests they view Moscow’s move as a step toward the
independence of their own homelands.

ITAR-TASS, Russia

Armenia marks 17th independence anniversary

21.09.2008, 20.22

YEREVAN, September 21 (Itar-Tass) — Armenia has managed to defend
itself, develop the state system, lay down the foundation of the
national economy and give a fresh impetus to culture, education and
health care in the 17 years of independence, President Serzh Sargsyan
said at the Sunday event that marked the national Independence Day.

`Our country is developing,’ he said. `Our fellow citizens, their
labor and loyalty are the backbone of this process.’

`We are forming new traditions of the Armenian state,’ Sargsyan
said. `We are a mature country, which must eradicate the phenomena
hindering our progress and encourage the values gained through the
effort of generations ` freedom, democracy and everyone’s equality in
the eyes of the law.’

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev congratulated Sargsyan on
Independence Day, the Kremlin said earlier in the day.

`I cordially congratulate all citizens of the friendly Armenia and you
personally on the national holiday, Independence Day,’ the message
runs. `Over recent years Armenia has achieved impressive results in
the consolidation of statehood and the economic development and has
built up its authority on the international scene.’

`Russia values high the traditional friendship with Armenia. I am sure
that mutual confidence, dynamic political dialog and efficient
business cooperation will promote further development of the allied
relations between Russia and Armenia. This course fully meets the
interests of out states, as well as the goals of peace, stability and
security in the South Caucasus,’ the message runs.

Medvedev wished health and success to the Armenian president and
prosperity to the people of Armenia.

L’ANCIEN ESPACE SOVIETIQUE SOUS LE CHOC GEORGIEN
Laure Mandeville

Le Figaro
18/09/2008
France

Les anciens satellites de l’URSS, reunis dans la Communaute des Etats
independants, ont observe avec effarement l’entree des chars russes
sur le territoire georgien.

C’est une veritable onde de choc qui parcourt l’ancien espace
sovietique depuis le debut de la crise russo-georgienne du
mois d’août. De la Bielorussie a l’Asie centrale, en passant par
l’Azerbaïdjan et l’Armenie, pays directement voisins de la zone de
conflit, tous ces anciens satellites de Moscou se sont mis a trembler
en observant avec effarement l’entree des chars russes sur le sol
georgien au nom de la defense de l’Ossetie du Sud et des minorites
russophones qui y habitent. La transformation de l’operation russe
destinee a "forcer la Georgie a la paix" après son attaque contre
la capitale ossète, Tskhinvali, en occupation d’une large partie du
territoire georgien et en destruction de son potentiel economique et
militaire, represente une lecon que les pays de la CEI ne sont pas
près d’oublier. "Ils sont paniques", resumait recemment un diplomate
europeen base a Bakou.

Profonde inquietude en Moldavie

L’inquietude est particulièrement vive en Azerbaïdjan, pays en première
ligne dans la fameuse route energetique alternative de sortie des
hydrocarbures d’Asie centrale – Bakou, Tbilissi, Ceyhan – que les
Occidentaux se sont ingenies a construire dans le but de reduire leur
trop grande dependance vis-a-vis de la Russie. Ayant perdu, comme les
Georgiens en Ossetie et Abkhazie, le contrôle de la region separatiste
du Haut-Karabakh au terme d’un conflit particulièrement meurtrier,
les Azeris se sentent concernes par la crise. Le president Aliev
"va devoir naviguer entre les echeances electorales d’octobre et
les pressions russes. Mais il maintiendra sa volonte de creation
d’un axe sud, car il sait que dans la region, face aux Russes et
aux Iraniens, sa chance tient a sa relation avec les Occidentaux",
confie une source diplomatique francaise. L’inquietude est egalement
profonde en Moldavie, dont le destin est entrave depuis des annees
par le conflit gele de Transnistrie, province russophone separatiste
soutenue par Moscou. Le discours poutinien sur la necessaire
defense des russophones eparpilles a travers l’ex-empire, suscite
aussi bien des questions en Ukraine, où la crise georgienne a fait
voler en eclats la coalition orange Timochenko-Iouchtchenko. Avec son
importante communaute russe, concentree au nord du pays, le Kazakhstan
se sent aussi vulnerable. Meme les Baltes, pourtant proteges par
le parapluie de l’Otan, s’inquiètent des consequences. Lors d’une
conference de l’association Grande Europe a Paris, vendredi dernier,
un depute lituanien affirmait d’ailleurs que dès le debut du conflit,
les trois ambassadeurs de Russie en terre balte avaient menace les
trois capitales de "sanctions, s’ils plaidaient la cause georgienne
au sein de l’UE".

–Boundary_(ID_qllIMa4xkLdOEg62AMnT8A )–

SECRETARY OF NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL UNDER THE PRESIDENT: TURKEY CANNOT COME FORWARD AS INTERMEDIARY IN THE KARABAKH CONFLICT SETTLEMENT

ArmInfo
2008-09-18 16:54:00

ArmInfo. Turkey cannot come forward as an intermediary in the Karabakh
conflict settlement, Secretary of National Security Council under the
Armenian president Artur Bagdasaryan said at today’s press-conference.

He also added Armenia has always supported Karabakh conflict settlement
within the frames of the OSCE MG.

Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul just expressed wish to support
settlement of the conflict and Armenia is ready to receive any support,
but supporting and mediation are different missions, Bagdasaryan said.

He positively assessed the fact of the American and French co-chairs of
the OSCE MG to Karabakh. ‘This is a new accent and direct reflection
of the reality that the NKR is becoming an active participant in the
process’, – Bagdasaryan said and added that Armenia is for establishing
normal dialogue with Turkey.

ELEVEN TAKEN INTO CUSTODY FOR ERGENEKON INVESTIGATION

BIA
Sept 19 2008
Turkey

Eleven people have been taken into custody in Ankara and Istanbul in
connection with the Ergenekon investigation. Nurseli Ä°diz, Seyhan
Soylu and Levent Temiz, who had threatened Hrant Dink, were among
those taken into custody.

Eleven people have been taken into custody in operations conducted
in connection with the Ergenekon investigation today. Some of those
taken into custody are actress Nurseli Ä°diz, former president of Ulku
Ocakları (Hearths of the Ideal, an organization associated with the
Grey Wolves) and lawyer Levent Temiz and Seyhan Soylu.

Police went to Temiz’s house early in the morning and searched it
with a lawyer present. He was taken into custody after the search.

Likewise, the houses of actress Idiz and organizer Soylu were
searched as well. Ä°diz had played Ataturk in Soylu’s "Republican
Women Project".

In Ankara, eight people were apprehended in connection with the
investigation. The suspects will be sent to Istanbul after their
medical exam. Six computers, one laptop, CD’s and documents were
seized with these people.

Temiz had stormed an exhibition and threatened Hrant Dink Together with
a group including Ramazan Kırkık of the Union of Non-Governmental
Organizations of Turkey, former president of Ulku Ocakları (Hearths
of the Ideal) Temiz had stormed an exhibition titled "September
6-7 Incidents" and organized by ‘KarÅ~_ı Sanat CalıÅ~_maları’
(Anti Art Works) together with the History Foundation of Turkey in
Galatasaray, Istanbul.

The attackers had tried to destroy the pictures in the exhibition
by throwing eggs at them. Not satisfied with the damage, they had
also thrown some of the pictures from the balcony to the street,
to be stepped on by their friends waiting there.

Temiz had also threatened Hrant Dink, murdered founder and chief
editor of Agos, weekly Armenian Turkish newspaper, after Dink had
written an article claiming that Ataturk’s adopted daughter and the
first woman pilot of Turkey Sabiha Gökcen was really an Armenian,
a survivor of 1915.

The discussions that had started after the article had quickly turned
into provocations and a group of Hearths of the Ideal members had
marched from the Å~^iÅ~_li Branch office of the Nationalist Movement
Party (MHP) to the Agos building at Pangaltı, just a hundred meters
away, while chanting slogans such as "Either love it or leave it",
"Down with Asala".

Speaking on behalf of the group in front of the Agos building, Temiz
had threatened Hrant Dink and told the crowd that he was the target
of their hate.

However, the authorities had decided to prosecute Temiz not for
"dangerous provocation leading to hatred and hostility", but for
"opposing the Law for Meetings and Demonstrations.

–Boundary_(ID_yhmkR0gkiLI0bWl3qd SHaw)–

VYING FOR A COMEBACK, TURKEY TALKS TO OLD FOE
by Judy Dempsey

The International Herald Tribune
September 18, 2008 Thursday
France

When Russian tanks rolled deep into Georgia last month, the security
architecture of this volatile part of the Caucasus changed. By using
force, Russia made a bid to reassert its power in a region it regards
as its backyard.

But it has a competitor: Turkey. Once the major player in the Caucasus
during the 19th century, when the Ottoman Empire stretched across
a vast area, Turkey today is using quiet diplomacy to re-establish
its influence.

This process could remake Turkey’s ties with Europe, and re-order the
complex energy and strategic equations of an increasingly important
region.

Turkey’s president, Abdullah Gul, Enhanced Coverage LinkingAbdullah
Gul, -Search using: Biographies Plus News News, Most Recent 60 Days
has reversed the policies of previous administrations by engaging
Iran, much to the annoyance of the United States and Israel. Iran’s
president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was given full honors when he recently
visited Ankara. In the Middle East, Turkey has taken on the role as
mediator between Syria and Israel.

But Ankara is also involved in another, even more ambitious diplomatic
endeavor. It has started to talk to its neighbor Armenia, with
whom Turkey cut all diplomatic relations in 1993 and closed the
border. Then, Turkey had supported Azerbaijan, a Turkic-speaking
nation, in its brutal war with Armenia over the enclave of
Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian region deep in Azerbaijan’s territory.

Despite the immense damage caused by the border closure for Armenian
businesses, the authorities in the capital, Yerevan, will not restore
diplomatic relations until Turkey acknowledges that crimes committed
in 1915 against Armenians in the Ottoman Empire were genocide.

So far, Turkey has refused to do so. Remarkably, that has not stopped
Gul and his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsian, from trying to
repair relations.

If they succeed, it could have profound repercussions for the Caucasus,
said Zeyno Baran, director of the Center for Eurasian Policy at the
Hudson Institute in Washington.

It could, for example, set in motion a diplomatic track to resolve
the status of Nagorno-Karabakh which until now has prevented Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Turkey from forging otherwise logical economic, trade,
transport and political links. The future of hundreds of thousands
of refugees caught up in the war could be resolved. Above all, this
part of the Caucasus could become stable.

"The region is already changing because of the Georgia-Russia crisis,"
said Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute in
Yerevan. "Just think what would happen if Turkey and Armenia had
normal relations."

Turkish and Armenian diplomats started exploring such possibilities
when they secretly met in the Swiss capital, Bern, in July. As a
result of those talks, Gul, who belongs to the pro-Islamist governing
Justice and Development Party, made several overtures to Armenia,
a predominantly Christian country.

In late July, he made a symbolic visit to medieval Armenian
church ruins in the Turkish province of Kars, on the border with
Armenia. After repeated requests by Yerevan, the Turks have begun
restoration works.

Then this month, Gul made a historic journey to Yerevan, where he
attended the qualifying match for the World Cup between Turkey and
Armenia (which Turkey won 2-0). There, the presidents and foreign
ministers of both countries held talks.

While it is too early to speak of any successful rapprochement,
the talks prove that Turkey, a leading member of the NATO military
alliance and candidate member of the EU, is not prepared to leave
the Caucasus to fester.

Nor does it want a new "Great Game," this time with American and
Russian domination that would replay the 19th century rivalries between
the Russian, British and Ottoman Empires. But Ankara’s attempts to
reach out to Armenia will test the skills and staying power of its
leaders – and Russia’s intentions.

Russia has substantial economic and political interests in Armenia –
interests fostered by Yerevan in order to alleviate the effects of
Turkey’s blockade and the standoff with Azerbaijan.

Russia gained control of pipelines, energy distribution networks and
other lucrative assets, pre-empting Western, especially American,
companies in the process.

In addition, Russia, adept at playing off sides in ethnic and
regional conflicts, has tacitly supported Armenia’s claims to
Nagorno-Karabakh, adding to any wariness on Azerbaijan’s part about
using its well-equipped army to regain that territory.

But with Turkey now making overtures to Armenia, analysts say Russia
is looking at developments very carefully. "Russia still has all
the cards in its hands," said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the
International Energy Agency in Paris. "Over 76 per cent of Turkey’s
trade with Russia is mostly oil and gas. Turkey must diversify its
energy sources. It would give it more room for maneuver."

For now, Russia still relies on Turkey as a transit country for its gas
exports to Europe. It is trying to weaken that dependence by building
the South Stream pipeline under the Black Sea that would link Russia
to Bulgaria and bypass Turkey. That would mean Turkey losing much
of its power as a transit country to negotiate with Russia over gas
supplies and costs, while remaining dependent on Russia for its energy.

So as Turkey tries to become a player in the Caucasus, alongside
Russia, Birol says that the EU must start understanding the
geopolitical importance of Turkey and Russia’s role in the security
of Turkey’s energy supply.

"The EU must help Turkey diversify its energy supplies by building
Nabucco," Birol said, referring to the EU’s much-delayed plans to build
a gas pipeline that would bypass Russia and so help reduce Europe’s,
and Turkey’s dependence on Russia.

The delays in Nabucco are not going to deter Ankara from pursuing a
rapprochement with Armenia. But sooner or later, if those talks are
to move ahead, both sides will have to confront the Armenian massacres.

Armenian and Turkish analysts say that dealing with this highly charged
issue will require the utmost diplomatic skills. "We can’t ignore the
genocide," said Iskandaryan from the Caucasus Institute. "It is part
of our history. But it does not mean you cannot have normal relations
with Turkey once your neighbor recognizes your past."

Nationalists in both countries and the powerful Armenian diaspora in
America already oppose the Gul-Sargsian talks and are waiting for an
opportunity to sabotage them. "Any reconciliation would undermine
the hard-liners and ultranationalists," said Bahadir Kaleagasi,
European director of the Turkish Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s
Association in Brussels. Nevertheless, both leaders continue to walk
a tightrope. So far, they have kept their nerve.

CAUCASE: UN NOUVEAU SYSTEME DE SECURITE NECESSAIRE

RIA Novosti
18 Sept 2008
Russie

EREVAN, 18 septembre – RIA Novosti. Le Caucase a besoin d’un nouveau
systeme de securite, a annonce jeudi a Erevan le president de la
commission parlementaire armenienne pour les relations exterieures
Armen Roustamian lors d’une rencontre avec le president de l’Assemblee
parlementaire de l’OTAN Jose Lello.

"Suite aux derniers evenements dans le Caucase, une nouvelle situation
geopolitique a vu le jour dans la region, qui a desormais besoin
d’un nouveau systeme de securite", a declare M. Roustamian cite par
le service de presse du parlement armenien.

"La securite dans le Caucase dans son ensemble depend de la stabilite
dans le Caucase du Sud. Il faut trouver un format permettant de
creer un nouveau systeme de securite reunissant trois Etats caucasiens
(Russie, Turquie, Iran), ainsi que des puissances qui reconnaissent que
cette region peut se developper sans nouvelles lignes de demarcation",
a-t-il resume.