PRE-ELECTION TEST FOR ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN
Vardan Grigoryan
Hayots Ashkharh Daily
Dec 1 2007
Armenia
On November 29, within the frameworks of the 15th Session of the
Council of the OSCE Foreign Ministers (held in Madrid), the Co-Chairs
of the Minsk Group introduced the basic principles discussed in
the Prague process with regard to the settlement of the Karabakh
conflict. The principles were submitted to the Foreign Ministers in
written form.
This was both a surprise and an expected event. The surprising
thing was that, as far back as quite recently, anticipating serious
negotiations based on the basic principles submitted by the OSCE Minsk
Group Co-Chairs and agreed upon by the parties for the settlement
of the Karabakh conflict seemed possible only after the presidential
elections expected in Armenia and Azerbaijan, i.e. at the beginning
of 2009.
Now, in quite solemn conditions, i.e. in the presence of the Russian
and French Foreign Ministers and the US Under-Secretary of State on
Political Affairs, the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group submitted
to the parties the clear-cut formulations of the basic principles in
written form, anticipating the answers of the Armenian and Azerbaijani
leaderships in the near future.
The Foreign Ministers have, for now, made essentially different
assessments on the basic principles submitted. As it is common to say,
they are under the influence of the first impressions. Vardan Oskanyan
considered the document fair and balanced; whereas his Azerbaijani
counterpart announced that there were still disagreements around a
couple of fundamental issues and "if there are common points with
regard to those issues, there will be a progress in the process of
resolving the problem."
The following question comes up: what disagreements are possible now
that the basic principles have been formulated and submitted by the
OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs themselves. E. Mamedyarov’s words lead to
the conclusion that the submitted document is not uniform and separate
principles are formulated in more than one variant, something that
is almost improbable. Or else, the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister is,
nonetheless, trying to conceal something when he simultaneously
declares that the document does not contain any discussion with
regard to the status of Nagorno Karabakh. But in response to that,
V. Karappetyan, Press Secretary of the RA Foreign Minister insists
on the just the contrary, "The status of Karabakh has, naturally,
been included in the document."
However, there will be absolutely no exaggeration if we insist that
the details of the contents of the given document enshrining the
basic principles are not quite important for the time being. What is
important is the choice of the time and the form of the document.
The reason is obvious. The tactics chosen by the parties for achieving
a breakthrough in the negotiations before the February 19 elections of
Armenia is more like a specific kind of test rather than mediation. And
the Armenian and Azerbaijani authorities are obliged to give an answer
to that test.
The question is: who needs such oral promise which is still to be
approved after the signature of a document enshrining the settlement
principles and be concretized during the upcoming negotiations aiming
to call it to life.
It is clear that the step has been undertaken by the OSCE, which plays
a pivotal role in supervising the presidential elections of Armenia and
Azerbaijan, as well as by the United States and its allies involved
in the process by the former. Interested in the issue of recognizing
the legitimacy of the elections to be held in their countries, the
Armenian and Azerbaijani authorities are now facing a complex dilemma,
since they will hardly manage to avoid the OSCE’s post-electoral
"rough" assessments in case the document is rejected.
It turns out that the OSCE is making hints that it will recognize the
legitimacy of the elections only in case the given country adopts
the basic principles elaborated by the Minsk Group with regard to
the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. That’s to say, the formula
"legitimacy in return for basic principles" is being put to practice.