Author: Toneyan Mark

DID OBAMA SUCCEED IN WINNING THE HEARTS OF THE TURKISH PEOPLE?
Mehmet Yegin, Columnist, JTW

Journal of Turkish Weekly
/did-obama-succeed-in-winning-the-hearts-of-the-tu rkish-people.html
Jan 12 2010
Turkey

Why the Turkish People?

The public influence on foreign policy began to increase after
Turgut Ozal’s term and accelerated with the Justice and Development
Party (AKP) government in Turkey. Nowadays Turkish people are more
interested in foreign policy. The increase in the number of newspaper
pages and the minutes in newscasts allocated to foreign policy is
the manifest evident of such interest. Thus, Turkish people are quite
different from the Americans about their perceived importance level
of foreign policy. Opposing to the American people[i], the foreign
policy influence the incumbent evaluations, so the voting preferences.

This is the reason why the incumbent prime minister takes the public
opinion polls so seriously. Moreover, these polls are used more to be
in accordance with than to manipulate or lead the public opinion.In
addition, having nearly half of the votes of the population pushed
the government to represent ordinary citizens’ preferences for the
upcoming elections. The public predispositions and expectations on
foreign policy will also influence the government. Therefore, the
public has a major influence on foreign policy in Turkey.

Did Obama Win the Hearts of the Turkish People?

Obama gathered the sympathies of the Turkish people personally.

Turkish people generated compassion toward Obama as an unprivileged
African American. Thus, the excitement toward an African American
president all around the world was applicable to Turkey too. Moreover,
being a successor of notorious George W. Bush administration increased
the expectations of Turkish people. That is the reason for their
thrillto sacrifice 44 sheep for his election.[ii]

In addition, the Turkish journalists often overemphasized his middle
name "Hussein",which gave the impression of being related to Islam
if not implying being a secret Muslim as a conspiracy. Not only as a
Muslim name but also as a Turkish name, "Hussein" gives the impression
of familiarity to Obama. Moreover, his visit to Turkey boosted his
image not because it was his first official visit to an overseas
country but because the trip received a lot of media coverage with
his well studied movements.

For his administration, Hillary Clinton as a familiar face in cabinet
made a positive impact. Hillary Clinton’s visit to Turkey as the
Secretary of State should not be underestimated. The Clintons are quite
popular in Turkey. Hillary and Bill Clinton’s visit to Turkey in 1999
and the photo of the baby holding his nose has created an affinity
towards the couple. Thus, Hillary Clinton is another positive impact
on Obama’s image.

Why Does Anti-Americanism Linger in Turkey?

However, this personal popularity does not significantly improve
the US’ image. The Bush administration’s damage does not seem to be
rectifiable in a short time. According to Pew Research Center Polls
the US favorability rate decreased to 9% in Bush’s term (2007) from
52% in 1999-2000.A May 2007 Gallup Poll indicated that 64% of Turkish
people perceive the US as hostile to Turkey while only 5% see the US
as friendly. The percentage viewing the US as friendly increased to 12%
in 2008 and to 14% in 2009. Thus, it seems that Obama’s presidency did
not significantly change the perceptions in Turkey. The favorability
rates in Turkey are the lowest among 25 countries, most of which
changed drastically after the Obama administration. For example,
in France, one of the countries with high anti-American sentiments,
the rates jumped to 75% from 42%.

Obama’s first visit to Turkey and warm welcome to the Turkish PM in
December may attract the attention of the pundit, and moreover, may
influence high ranking bureaucrats. Yet, ordinary Turkish citizens
will not change their minds about a country with small tricks such as
stroking a cat or ceasing the speech during the call to prayer. Thus,
on a personal level Obama may enjoy popularity in Turkey. But this
popularity did not directly increase the favorability ratings of the
US. There is still a lingering distrust of the US government.

There are two approaches for this split between the president and the
country. First is the idea that Obama is incapable of changing the
country’s direction, and the second and worse approach is that this
is a deliberate policy.Turkish people attach enormous power to the
US if not see it as omnipotent. Notwithstanding the negative image,
Turkish people point to the US as the first county that would help
Turkey in an emergency. According to USAK (International Strategic
Research Organization) Foreign Policy Perception Polls in 2004(with
27.50%), in 2005 (with 24.00%) and in 2009(with 25.45%) the US remains
at the top of the list because people see the US as capable. Thus,
the stagnancy of the US on the PKK, Armenia and Cyprus issues create
negative impressions about the US. The public interprets this inertia
as hostility.

Unfortunately Obama has not made a significant move that would get the
attention of Turkish people on these delicate issues. The PKK issue is
the most important issue that influences the US’ image. The trauma of
putting sacks over the heads of Turkish soldiers in Sulaymaniyah still
lingers. And the US weapons in the hands of PKK militants exacerbated
the situation. These two solid incidents caused a threat perception
from the US. After November 5, 2007 the cooperation and intelligence
sharing changed the hostile image. Yet, other than minor improvements
such as a trilateral committee to fight against terrorism-which
will not get public attention- the Obama administration has not
taken visible steps on the PKK issue. As SedatLaciner puts it, the
US may help Turkey to capture high-ranking PKK militants through
joint operations.[iii]Such operations would balance the impact of
Suleymaniyah and boost the US’ image.

As another point, the Turkish public did not get the expected
support about the Cyprus and Armenia issues. There is no significant
improvement about Cyprus case and the isolation of the Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) still remains. On the other hand,
there have been significant happenings on the Armenian case, but it
is hard to see significant US support. Obama did not use the term
"genocide" to address the 1915 incidents, despite the pressure of
the Armenian lobby, but he used a similar word in Armenian[iv]. The
agreement between Turkey and Armenia is an important step. Yet,
it is questionable to be perceived positively by Turkish people in
order to credit the US for the incident.

Conclusion

This does not mean there is no way to change the situation. Actually,
Turkish people want to believe Obama and his sincerity. Yet, they
could not see a substantial step to support their expectations.

According to the 2005 USAK Turkey-USA Relations survey the thorniest
obstacle in Turkish-American relations for 75% of Turkish peoplewas
the existence of PKK in Northern Iraq. I think the PKK issue is still
at the top of the list. Yet, the Turkish public has not seen the Obama
administration take a substantial step about the PKK issue. For the
Turkish public it seems that literally nothing has changed after the
November 5 negotiations.Thus, Obama needs to reveal his sincerity
about substantial issues, especially regarding the PKK.

Mehmet Yegin is a Researcher at USAK Center for Transatlantic Studies

PROTOCOLS SENSITIVE ISSUE FOR ARMENIAN NATION

PanARMENIAN.Net
12.01.2010 12:49 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ A public hearing on the protocols on normalization
of Armenian-Turkish relations would be advisable, according to ARF
Dashnaktsutyun representative Armen Rustamyan.

"Unfortunately, the RA Constitutional Court is entitled to consider
cases submitted in written form only. Anyway, we issued a juridical
conclusion on the documents and do believe that it will be taken
into account during the secret discussion of the CC members," he
said. "I’m hopeful that the CC will reach a decision not conflicting
with Armenia’s national interests."

The protocols aimed at normalization of bilateral ties and opening of
the common border between Armenia and Turkey were signed in Zurich
by Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian and his Turkish
counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu on October 10, 2009, after a series of
diplomatic talks held through Swiss mediation.

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutyun is an Armenian
political party founded in Tiflis (Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia)
in 1890 by Christapor Mikaelian, Stepan Zorian, and Simon Zavarian
The ARF has the largest number of members from the political parties
present in the Armenian Diaspora, having established affiliates in
more than 200 countries.

The ARF Dashnaktsutyun led the effort toward the establishment of
the first Armenian Republic in 1918 and was the party in power for
the duration of its existence. Following the Sovietization of Armenia
in 1920, the ARF-Dashnaktsutyun was banned by the Communists and its
leadership exiled.

In the Diaspora, the ARF Dashnaktsutyun fought Soviet rule over
Armenia and championed the cause of Armenian rights and independence;
it played a leading role in organizing a social and cultural framework
aimed at preserving the Armenian identity.

The ARF Dashnaktsutyun officially re-emerged in Armenia during the
dissolution of the USSR, in 1990.

On December 28, 1994, the activities of the ARF-Dashnaktsutyun were
"temporarily suspended" by the Armenian authorities. In view of
the political nature of the anti-ARF interdictions by the Armenian
authorities, the ARF continued to operate in Armenia. On February 9,
1998, less than a week after the resignation of the then president
Ter-Petrossian, the Justice Ministry lifted the ban on the ARF
Dashnaktsutyun.

DEMONSTRATORS TO REMAIN IN FRONT OF COURT BUILDING UNTIL FINAL DECISION IS MADE

Tert.am
13:20 ~U 12.01.10

Protestors gathered in front of the Constitutional Court building
today have said they will remain until a final decision is reached
by the court. This opinion was expressed by one such protestor,
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) MP Artsvik Minasyan.

As previously reported, the discussion on the Armenian-Turkish
Protocols began today in Armenia’s Constitutional Court, in which
it will be decided whether the Protocols are in accordance with –
or in contradiction to – the country’s constitution.

Manasyan reassured journalists that demonstrators wouldn’t disperse
even in the case that the decision is announced tomorrow.

"People were affected also by yesterday’s rally, [where] handed over
to the Constitutional Court was a clear legal, political approach,
and the not only political, but also legal solution explained [in the
document], allows one to say that the Constitutional Court has all of
the opportunities to recognize, at the very least, that these Protocols
don’t correspond with the Constitution in part," noted Minasyan.

New Times party leader Aram Karapetyan, for his part, confidently, and
with regret, stated that the court will not recognize the Protocols as
contradicting the Constitution, despite all evidence to the contrary.

YEREVAN DISTRICT ELECTORAL COMMISSION N 10 RECEIVES APPLICATIONS ON RECOUNTING PRELIMINARY RESULTS AT 12 OF 34 POLLING STATIONS

Noyan Tapan
Jan 11, 2010

YEREVAN, JANUARY 11, NOYAN TAPAN. Yerevan district electoral
commission N 10 in the established term, by January 11, 14:00,
received applications on recounting the preliminary results at 12 of
34 polling stations of RA NA deputy’s by-elections by majority system
held the day before at the electoral district. According to the time
constraints established by the Electoral Code, the district electoral
commission will carry out the recounting by January 15, 14:00.

As Noyan Tapan correspondent was informed by Chairwoman of district
electoral commission N 10 Silva Markosian, candidate for deputy,
National Unity party member Ara Simonian introduced a demand of
recounting the voting results at 11 polling stations and proxies of
Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper’s editor-in-chief Nikol Pashinian at 2
polling stations. At that, one of the polling stations is mentioned
in the applications introduced by both candidates.

news.am, Armenia
Jan 8 2010

No new swine flu cases in Armenia

11:48 / 01/08/2010As of January 8, 2010, a total of 111 swine flu
cases are registered in Armenia, including three death cases.
Presently, two patients undergo treatment in the hospitals, the rest
160 are already discharged.

The daily monitoring of respiratory diseases continues in the
republic, RA Health Ministry press service told NEWS.am. According to
the monitoring results, the number of infected reduced.

To date, a pregnant woman, 28-aged man and 80-years old woman died of
swine flu in Armenia.

A.G.

news.az, Azerbaijan
Jan 8 2010

Armenia faces demographic disaster
Fri 08 January 2010 | 07:15 GMT Text size:

Eldar Sabiroghlu "Some mass media associate President Serzh Sargsyan’s
meeting with servicemen with Armenia’s preparations to war. But the
thing is not that.

Probably, if not for the concerns, it would have been possible to hold
a meeting in such a format after the holidays. It seems that the state
is not too good. Exchange of views with servicemen was needed to curb
the army and overcome problems in this sphere", said Eldar Sabiroghlu,
spokesman for Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry.

He said there is a crisis in the armed forces of Armenia and it is not
the first year that this crisis is worsening.

The state measures are not effective because there are such delicate
issues which are difficult and sometimes problematic to overcome by
bureaucratic means. Today, the relations between local and Karabakh
Armenians have become disastrous in Armenia. The history of this issue
goes into a remote past. Karabakh Armenians were almost not appointed
to the state positions when Armenia was headed by Karen Demirchyan.

The leadership of the Defense Ministry, a greater part of chiefs of
departments are Armenians from Nagorno Karabakh. The same can be
applied to most commanders of the military unit. This tendency is
obviously demonstrated towards soldiers. Parents in Armenia spend all
that they have for their children not to serve in Nagorno Karabakh.
The attitude to alien soldiers is too bad there. Most of the recently
captured Armenian soldiers are from Armenia and they admit that they
surrendered voluntarily as they could not bear violence,
discrimination and inhuman treatment. This is a brief picture", he
said.

Sabiroghlu also added that Armenia is facing a demographic disaster.

"The country is currently facing serious problems in the sphere of
military conscription. The Defense Ministry failed to form several
military units on the front line due to the lack of human resources.
Tensions grew in the result of army confrontation with the population
on 1 March of 2009 when some 30 civilians were killed and hundreds of
protests participants were wounded. For these and other reasons the
hatred to army among the Armenian people has grown.

1 news.az

news.az, Azerbaijan
Jan 7 2010

Armenian community has a fear, expert
Thu 07 January 2010 | 10:04 GMT Text size:

Uzeir Jafarov The Armenian political and military leadership sometimes
makes specific statements to distract attention of their community.

This statement was made by military expert Uzeir Jafarov commenting on
the statement by Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan that the
armed forces of this country are ready to resist any attempt of
military aggression.

According to Jafarov, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Defense
Minister Seyran Ohanyan sometimes voice abnormal statements.

"They often voice abnormal statements. For example, they said that
Armenia is the strongest and the most developed country in the South
Caucasus. It is intended for the inner audience. And the fact that
Seyran Ohanyan makes such statements too often shows that the Armenian
community fears that Azerbaijan may start hostilities. Meanwhile, the
Armenian authorities fear that if Azerbaijan starts hostilities, it
will cease their reign".

1 news.az

News.az, Azerbaijan
Jan 6 2010

Progress in Karabakh conflict urgent for Ankara, political scientist
Wed 06 January 2010 | 10:12 GMT Text size:

Alexei Vlasov There are no special differences between Moscow and
Ankara in the liberation of the occupied lands around Nagorno
Karabakh.

"The situation in Nagorno Karabakh issue is that any contact in the
Ankara-Washington-Moscow axe is considered both in Azerbaijan and
Armenia via the prism of the Karabakh issue. Therefore, I do not rule
out that this issue will be on the agenda of talks during the upcoming
visit of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Moscow", said
political scientist and general director of the Center for Post-Soviet
area studies Alexei Vlasov.

He noted that though he does not hope for the public declaration of
agreements on the Karabakh issue by the leaders of Russia and Turkey
but adoption of any roadmap regarding the settlement of this issue is
not ruled out.
"Ankara may ask Moscow to do it a favor in this issue, as April is
coming and Obama may recognize the "Armenian genocide". To avoid this
and for the calm ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols in the
parliament, the progress in Karabakh issue is urgent for Ankara. I
think Moscow will promise Ankara to do everything possible to
accelerate the settlement of this issue. I think there are no
differences between Moscow and Ankara in the issue of the liberation
of lands around Nagorno Karabakh. I think Washington will also take
such a decision", Vlasov said.

Meanwhile, the political scientist noted that the complete settlement
of the Karabakh conflict will take time. "The positions of the parties
including the moderators of this process are too different. Washington
will want to keep its right to settle this conflict. Moscow is also
not against being a dominating force in this issue. Brussels and Paris
also have their interests apart from the interests of the regional
superpowers, including Turkey and Iran. Therefore, the parties will
have to pass a long process here. But I think it is possible to reach
a consensus in the issue of liberation of occupied lands around
Nagorno Karabakh", he said.

1news.az

news.am, Armenia
Jan 1 2010

No crucial changes in Nagorno-Karabakh peace process next year, expert says

09:01 / 01/01/2010The initialing of an Armenian-Turkish roadmap, as
well as the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols, has been the
most significant event of this year. This brought about serious
changes not only in the to states’ political life, but also in the way
of thinking. This has also been the axis of further domestic and
foreign political developments this year and will play this role next
year, the political analyst Artak Shakaryan told NEWS.am.

Armenia’s foreign policy can be considered successful next year if the
Armenian-Turkish protocols are ratified before next April. It will
have most favorable consequences for Armenia, particularly for its
international role. `The ratification of the protocols after next
April may have unfavorable consequences,’ Shakaryan said. He pointed
out that every day postponing the ratification is of crucial
importance for the Armenian-Turkish protocols. It is not only that the
95th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide will be marked on April 24.
Rather, 2010 is a pre-election year in Turkey, and every day that
brings the election date closer puts off the ratification of the
protocols, he said. `If Turkey refuses to ratify the protocols, it
will find itself under pressure in the form of Yerevan’s pulling out
of the process. On the other hand, the process of international
recognition of the Armenian Genocide will hardly be intensified as a
means of pressure,’ Shakaryan said.

As regards the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, he does not rule out
that next year, under Turkey’s pressure, the resolution will be linked
to the Armenian-Turkish normalization process. `Resorting to a
compromise, the international community may influence the parties to
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict toward signing a symbolic document, just
to show some progress. But no radical changes in the Nagorno-Karabakh
peace process should be expected next year,’ Shakaryan said.

T.P.

RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan’s congratulatory message on New Year
and Christmas

armradio.am
30.12.2009 21:07

Dear compatriots,
Our State faced many challenges and hardships in 2009.
We managed to defy most serious economic, financial and social threats
amid global crisis.

The Government’s large-scale anti-crisis measures mitigated the
adverse impact of the global crisis for several thousands of Armenian
households.

Pensions were raised by 16%, wages – by 11%, with the rise in wages
recorded in both the public and private sectors.

Thousands of new jobs were made available thanks to the efforts of the
Operative Staff. Sizeable construction work was realized in the
disaster zone which will be continued in 2010-2011.

Motor roads were built to a total length of 415 km.

300km-long irrigation pipelines were installed to be complemented with
500 km-long extra network in 2010.

The new thermal power plant project is nearing completion in Yerevan.
Efforts are underway for the construction of the new nuclear reactor.
We succeeded in substituting imports with domestic products in a
number of fields.

Outstanding are the achievements in he spheres of information
technologies, agriculture, SME.

We had several important achievements in culture and sport during the year.

To my great satisfaction, the public has been appreciating our
fundamental reform action.

Nevertheless, we must remember that still much has to be done in public life.

I am convinced that together we will be able to defy any new
challenges ahead and state that all major problems have been met in
the New Year.
Dear compatriots,

As we are in for the New Year, I am formulating my best wishes for a
prevailing peace, justice and mutual confidence, solidarity and love
in our homes.

May God be with us.
I wish all of us a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.