Author: Toneyan Mark

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Feb 21 2008

KOSOVA AND THE `FROZEN’ CONFLICTS OF THE FORMER USSR

By Pavel Felgenhauer

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Rally in Abkhazia The leaders of the breakaway mini-states of
Transnistria in Moldova, Karabakh in Azerbaijan, as well as Abkhazia
and South Ossetia in Georgia welcomed Kosova’s unilateral declaration
of independence this week and its subsequent recognition by the
international community. At a joint press conference this week in
Moscow, the presidents of self-proclaimed South Ossetia and Abkhazia
Eduard Kokoiti and Sergei Bagapsh, announced they will `address
Russia, other CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] countries, and
international organizations to defend and approve our rights to
independence.’ The Transnistria foreign ministry issued a statement
announcing, `The declaration and consecutive recognition of Kosova
are of principal importance since they create a new model of conflict
settlement based on the priority of the right for self-determination’
(Interfax, February 18; RIA-Novosti, February 19).

Transnistria , Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Karabakh proclaimed their
sovereignty in the early 1990s as the USSR collapsed, but no
international actor has recognized them. Only Abkhazia is seeking
outright independence; Transnistria and South Ossetia have expressed
a desire to join Russia, while Karabakh wants to join Armenia. The
Abkhaz people still vividly remember the terrible massacre and ethnic
cleansing committed by Russian imperial troops and authorities in the
1860s and 1870s, which left 90% of the Abkhaz population either dead
or forced into permanent exile in Turkey and the Middle East. As the
Russian Empire completed the conquest of the North Caucasus in the
1860s and 1870s, some half a million Muslim Caucasian mountain people
were forcibly expelled to the Ottoman Empire. The Caucasian Black Sea
coast from Taman in the north to Sochi in the south was entirely
depopulated and resettled by Russians. The Abkhaz became a minority
in their own land.

Russian officials have strongly denounced Kosova’s independence and
have threatened retaliation without stating what it will be. It now
seems that Moscow’s reaction will be diplomatic and verbal. The
Kremlin will not use gas or oil supplies to Europe as a weapon, nor
will it use Kosovar independence as a pretext to immediately
recognize any of the self-proclaimed states.

Russia’s decision to not back its harsh words with action is not
surprising. Moscow never truly intended to use Kosovar independence
to somehow revenge Russia’s humiliation during the 1999 NATO bombing
of Yugoslavia that evicted Serbian troops from Kosova. Speaking at a
press conference in the Kremlin last week, President Vladimir Putin
announced, `We think that to support a unilateral declaration of
independence by Kosova is immoral and against the law.’ At the same
time Putin stated that if the West makes an `incorrect decision’ to
recognize Kosova’s independence, Russia will not do the same with
Abkhazia and the others, but will `ensure that our interests are
protected’ (, February 14).

Kremlin insiders have personal reasons to keep selling oil and gas to
the West at the highest possible volume and the best possible price.
Last week Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told journalists that Russia
has no intention of imposing any sanctions whatsoever on the EU for
recognizing Kosova (Interfax, February 13).

The Kremlin unilaterally withdrew all Russian peacekeepers from
Yugoslavia in 2003 and has no intention to dispatch solders to the
Balkans to help the Serbs in any way. During a farewell press
conference in Moscow last month before going to Brussels as Russia’s
permanent representative to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin (see EDM, January
31) was asked by a Serbian journalist if Russia would, please, return
the several thousand solders it has the right to deploy in Kosova
under a 1999 agreement with the United States as part of a NATO-led
force to `defend the Serbs?’ Rogozin, the flamboyant anti-Western
nationalist politician turned diplomat, replied, `The withdrawal of
our troops from Kosova was a correct move, and I believe they must
not return. We are defending not Serbia, but international law. The
Serbs must defend themselves.’ It was clear that Rogozin was
expressing not just his personal opinion, but the Kremlin line as
well. Russia still has political and economic interests in the
Balkans, but military action in Kosova is a line it will not cross.

Russia’s future policy on Kosova will be to a large degree decided in
the coming months by the pace of Kosova’s international recognition.
There never was any internal unity within the Kremlin on the Kosova
issue. The Foreign Ministry swayed Putin to take a public stand to
defend `international law’ against U.S. jingoism. Russian UN
ambassador Vitaly Churkin has voiced the hope that the majority of UN
states will not support the Western position on Kosova (Itar-Tass,
February 18). If Churkin and the Foreign Ministry are proven wrong,
if Third World countries, both Muslim and non-Muslim, recognize
Kosova en masse, or if by the time Putin’s successor is inaugurated
in May there are over a hundred recognitions, Moscow’s position may
change. Standing up to the United States as a leader of the emerging
multipolar world is one thing, becoming isolated alongside Serbia is
another. It may be seen as an appropriate time for Dmitry Medvedev,
Putin’s heir apparent, to send a positive signal to the West at the
expense of Serb nationalists. Russia might, for example, decide not
to block Kosova’s admission to the UN and other international bodies.

The Kremlin would like to increase its influence within the
post-Soviet space, but that does not mean it particularly wants to
proceed by adding geographical tidbits like Transnistria or South
Ossetia to its imperial crown. Moscow wants much more, but, as with
the Kosova issue, the multiple views on how to achieve the goal
translate into frequently inconsistent policies.

OPPOSITION HOLDS BIG RALLY IN ARMENIA, SEEKING RERUN OF PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

Associated Press
February 24th, 2008

YEREVAN, Armenia – Thousands of opposition supporters protested
in Armenia’s capital Sunday, demanding a rerun of the disputed
presidential vote and denouncing the detention of several allies in
their confrontation with the government.

More than 20,000 people protested for a fifth day in a central
square where the opposition has maintained a round-the-clock vigil,
and hundreds broke away to march through the streets in the early
evening. A tough warning from the outgoing president raised concerns
that police could seek to disperse the demonstrators.

Supporters of opposition candidate Levon Ter-Petrosian claim Tuesday’s
election was rigged and are demanding a new vote. The government
says Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian won the presidency fairly and
has urged the protesters to disperse.

The standoff has raised concerns about potential violence in a poor
and volatile country that is strategically located at the junction of
the energy-rich Caspian Sea region and southern Europe, with Russia
and Iran nearby.

Announcing final election results Sunday that were in line with a
preliminary count, Central Election Commission chief Garegin Azarian
said Sarkisian, Kocharian’s favoured successor, received nearly 53
per cent of the vote in the country of 3.2 million – enough to win
outright and avoid a run-off.

He said Ter-Petrosian won 21.5 per cent. The opposition claims
that Ter-Petrosian won but that the vote was marred by vote-buying,
ballot-stuffing and violence.

A few officials have joined the opposition since the vote.

One of them, former deputy prosecutor General Gagik Dzhangirian, was
detained along with his brother and another man late Saturday, police
spokesman Sayat Shirinian said. An exchange of gunfire erupted when
officers blocked a highway to search the car they were travelling in,
Shirinian said.

Dzhangirian’s brother and two police officers were injured, police
said.

Kocharian on Saturday dismissed several Armenian diplomats who
expressed support for the opposition, including the ambassadors to
Italy and Kyrgyzstan and a deputy foreign minister.

PM SERGE SARGSYAN RECEIVES A CONGRATULATION FROM THE MAYOR OF MOSCOW

armradio.am
25.02.2008 18:02

The Mayor of Moscow Yuri Luzhkov congratulated RA Prime Minister Serge
Sargsyan on his victory in the presidential elections of February
19. The congratulatory message says, in part:

"I’m deeply assured that your political experience, the distinct
civic position, the high human and business features will serve for
the multifaceted development of the Republic of Armenia, reinforcement
of its international reputation.

I want to us the opportunity to confirm Moscow’s aspirations and
willingness to expand and deepen the mutually beneficial economic,
social and cultural ties with the Republic of Armenia. I wish you
success and new achievements in your work for the benefit of the
Republic of Armenia."

EU CONGRATULATED ARMENIANS

Panorama.am
13:33 23/02/2008

The European Union made an announcement on the Armenian presidential
elections scheduled on 19 February. According to the press and public
relations department of the Government, it is particularly written:

"The European Union congratulates the Armenian people for the conduct
of a competitive presidential election in Armenia. The European Union
notes the statement of preliminary findings and conclusions of the
International Election Observation Mission which concluded that the
presidential election in Armenia, an important test for democracy
in this country, was conducted mostly in line with OSCE and Council
of Europe commitments and standards. The European Union welcomes
the genuine efforts that were made to address the shortcomings in
previous elections.

However, the EU also notes that the report raised concerns about
the electoral process and that further improvements are necessary
to address the remaining challenges. It notes in particular that,
according to ODIHR, improvements and additional political will are
necessary to tackle concerns such as the lack of public confidence
in the electoral process, the absence of clear separation between
state and party functions and ensuring equal treatment of candidates.

The European Union looks forward to the final results of the
presidential election and calls on the competent authorities to
ensure that complaints are adequately investigated and shortcomings
addressed."

KOCHARIAN: PEOPLE SHOULD UNDERSTAND THAT PRESIDENT CAN’T DIVIDE SOCIETY INTO "FRIENDS" AND "FOES"

PanARMENIAN.Net
20.02.2008 19:49 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Armenian President Robert Kocharian issued a
statement on occasion of the presidential election, the leader’s
press office reported.

"The Republic of Armenia held presidential election on February 19. The
election was free and fair and met the RA legislation and Armenia’s
international commitments. I express my gratitude to all members of
election commissions, empowered persons and the voters for conduction
of the election on the proper level. It was a serious ordeal for our
developing democracy.

"Elections always cause political discrepancies, tensions and splits in
the society. But a just defeat in political struggle is an important
constituent of democracy. Each citizen should understand that the
President of Armenia can’t divide society into "friends" and "foes". I
am confident that President-elect Serzh Sargsyan can unite the society
and create the atmosphere of mutual understanding and tolerance.

"Despite serious achievements, Armenia faces challenges. Our people
possess unused potential. The Republic of Armenia should become one of
the most competitive and rapidly developing states in the world. But
this process requires unification and consistent work."

CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT ARTUR BAGDASARYAN’S ELECTION HEADQUARTERS INSISTS ON REVISING THE VOTING RESULTS

arminfo
2008-02-20 13:53:00

ArmInfo. Candidate for president, leader of Orinats Yerkir party
Artur Bagdasaryan’s election headquarters insists on revising the
results of the presidential election in Armenia.

The statement of Bagdasaryan’s headquarters says that the election was
held with mass violations of Electoral Code. They were accompanied with
intimidating of campaign agents and members of electoral commissions,
blackmail, beating up and mass ballot stuffing. All above mentioned
cast doubt on freedom, legality and fairness of the election. ‘We
declare about starting the process of recalculation of the voting
results in more than 200 election precincts, as a result of which
the votes for Artur Bagdasaryan will grow much’, – the statement
says. Authors of the statement apply to the authorities to take
measures and not to hinder the process.

Hindu, India
Feb 20 2008

Early results show Sarkisian leading in Armenian presidential poll

YEREVAN, Armenia (AP): Early preliminary results showed Prime
Minister Serge Sarkisian ahead in Armenia’s presidential election and
on track to win the first round of voting outright, election
officials said Tuesday.

With ballots from more than 10 percent of precincts counted,
Sarkisian had received 53 percent of the vote, the Central Election
Commission said, while his main opponent, Levon Ter-Petrosian, had
received just 11 percent.

Election officials were expected to continue counting ballots through
the night and full preliminary results were not expected before
Wednesday evening.

The election was marred by allegations from Ter-Petrosian that
authorities had rigged the vote. The former president asserted that
he was in fact the victor and called on supporters to rally in the
Armenian capital, Yerevan, Wednesday, to protest the results and
celebrate his win.

Sarkisian and Ter-Petrosian _ Armenia’s first president after the
Soviet collapse _ were the two top contenders vying to lead the South
Caucasus nation, where more than a quarter of the population lives in
poverty despite some economic progress in recent years.

With a population of about 3.2 million, Armenia is at the juncture of
the energy-rich Caspian Sea region and southern Europe. That and its
proximity to Iran, make it of strategic importance for the West and
Russia.

Sarksyan set to become Armenia’s next president

info&article=470911&lng=1
19/02 19:41 CET

Prime Minister Serzh Sarksyan has won Armenia’s presidential election
according to exit polls. His main rival opposition leader Levon
Ter-Petrosyan has denounced voting irregularities and called for mass
protests in the capital Yerevan on Wednesday.

An ally of outgoing president Robert Kocharyan, Sarksyan is expected to
continue in his footsteps. Kocharyan’s decade in power has been marked
by economic growth and a firm stance towards neighbours Azerbaijan
and Turkey.

Previous elections in Armenia have been followed by mass opposition
protests over alleged fraud.

East-West divide over Kosovo move
By Paul Reynolds
World affairs correspondent, BBC News website

Story from BBC NEWS:
europe/7249317.stm

Published: 2008/02/17 15:34:15 GMT

The diplomatic gulf between Russia and many Western governments is
widening with the declaration of independence by Kosovo.

What the United States and many EU countries see as the inevitable
result of war and history is regarded as "immoral and illegal" in the
words of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Most EU governments, certainly the British, see the move as a one-off,
the final piece of the shattered jigsaw that was Yugoslavia being put
into its new place.

Russia will try to block the move in the Security Council. This will
fail because of the support for Kosovo from three permanent members
with a veto on Security Council decisions – the US, France and Britain.

Russia itself last summer blocked a Security Council decision to
approve Kosovo’s limited independence.

The mandate

At issue is the separation of the province from Serbia without a clear
mandate from the Security Council.

Russia supports the view of Serbia that a province cannot break away
like this. Serbia has offered autonomy not independence.

Russia says the principles of international law and custom, especially
those governing diplomacy in Europe, demand that agreement is made
first.

The US and countries supporting Kosovo say that the existing UN
Security Council resolution 1244 authorised an "international presence"
in Kosovo after the war waged by Nato in 1999 and does not prevent the
move to independence.

In the final analysis, though, the Western argument is about politics
not law.

The alienation of Kosovo from Serbia, it is felt, has gone too far and
the status quo is no longer sustainable or acceptable.

The result is another issue that is added to the growing list of
differences between the West and Russia.

The re-emergence of the word West, with its Cold War implications of an
almost permanent division with Russia, is a sign of how badly relations
have deteriorated over the past few years.

EU recognition

Many EU governments, including the UK, France and Germany, are expected
to recognise the limited and supervised form of independence
recommended for Kosovo by the UN.

They will do so after a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels on
Monday.

The EU is leaving actual recognition to individual governments.
Diplomatic sources say that three member states – Cyprus, Romania and
Slovakia – have told EU partners that they will not recognise the
breakaway province.

Others might be slow to do so. But there will be substantial support
for Kosovo.

Recognition by the United States is not in doubt and is also expected
on Monday. The moves have all been coordinated with the Kosovan
leadership. The idea is to minimise the expected diplomatic discord.

‘Pandora’s box’

That there will be discord is certain.

Serbia is not expected to launch an military moves but will certainly
do its best to boycott Kosovo while trying to support the Serb minority
there. Russia will ensure that Kosovo cannot join the UN.

The stand-off has serious implications for Serbia’s future membership
of the EU. This could well be delayed and, if relations get much worse,
could be put on hold for some years at least.

There is also the possibility that the Serb population in
Bosnia-Herzegovina might call for a referendum on their secession.

Whether Russia will use the Kosovo precedent as an argument that
Abkhazia and South Ossetia deserve independence or secession from
Georgia remains to be seen.

At a recent security conference in Munich, the former Russian defence
minister, Sergei Ivanov, spoke of Kosovo "opening a Pandora’s box".

At the moment, there is such a gap between the West and Russia that it
cannot be bridged. Russia regards itself as under threat (not just from
the US anti-missile system, but from a deep hostility) and has taken
what it feels are defensive measures.

But those measures (including the threat to target countries helping
the US missile shield) are seen in the West as aggressive.

East and West are still divided.

[email protected]

PACE observers to arrive in Armenia on February 18

armradio.am
16.02.2008 15:10

A 27-member delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of
Europe (PACE), headed by John Prescott (United Kingdom, SOC), will
visit Armenia from 18 to 20 February 2008 to observe the presidential
election together with observers from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly,
the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR)
and the European Parliament.

The delegation members will meet the candidates in the election, the
Chairman of the Central Election Commission and representatives of NGOs
and the media; they will then travel to various parts of the country to
observe the conduct of the poll on 19 February.

A PACE pre-election delegation which visited Yerevan from 29 to 31
January 2008 said that it was "heartened by the clearly expressed will
of the authorities to hold fully democratic elections in line with
Armenia’s commitments to the Council of Europe". But it felt that
continued efforts were needed in organising the elections so as to
ensure public confidence in the electoral process.

The observers will present their conclusions at a joint press
conference at on Wednesday 20 February.