DOWNSIZED COMMONWEALTH
by Arkady Dubnov
WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
October 9, 2009 Friday
Russia
CIS LEADERS THEMSELVES DISMISS THE COMMONWEALTH AS SOMETHING
IMMATERIAL; Central Asian presidents will miss the CIS summit.
The CIS summit opening in Kishinev tomorrow will be
downsized. Presidents of European CIS countries (Russia, Ukraine,
Belarus, and Moldova) and two republics of the Caucasus (Armenia
and Azerbaijan) are expected. Central Asian leaders (Kazakh, Tajik,
Kyrgyz, and Turkmen) meanwhile decided against making a trip to faraway
Moldova for the questionable pleasure of attending a ritualistic
event. These countries will be represented by prime ministers and
deputy premiers. It is fair to add that status of Turkmenistan in
the Commonwealth is not clear. Never exactly a full-fledged CIS
member, Turkmenistan decided to quit the structure altogether in
the Turkmenbashi’s days and even started going through the motions
of withdrawal. The whole process quietly came to a halt after 2006
when "the father of all Turkmens" passed away and was replaced with
Gurbankuly Berdymuhammedov.
Downsized or not, the CIS summit will remain in the focus of
attention. To a certain extent, the publicity is all but assured by the
scandal caused by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s refusal to meet
with his Ukrainian counterpart Victor Yuschenko in Kishinev. Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov returned from the talks with his Ukrainian
opposite number in Kharkov and confirmed that there would be no
bilateral meetings between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents
within the framework of the summit. Asked by Ukrainian journalists
for comment on Moscow’s persistent refusal to arrange a tete-a-tete
meeting between Medvedev and Yuschenko, Lavrov shrugged. "What can
I say? Consider it absence of response. We are friends with the
Ukrainians, but this is how things are."
The state of affairs with the Russian-Ukrainian bilateral relations
is truly unprecedented. Foreign ministers do meet, but the Kremlin
boycotts the head of the Ukrainian state. On the other hand, there are
lots of unprecedented things about the Commonwealth in general. It is
probably the only alliance in the world whose members have remained
in the state of war for over 15 years already. Is the CIS being kept
together just because imitation of peacekeeping processes between
Azerbaijan and Armenia is more convenient (at least, less troublesome)
within its framework? It is clear after all that were it not for the
planned meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in
Kishinev, and another one where Medvedev will join Ilham Aliyev and
Serj Sargsjan, the summit in Kishinev would have seen neither the
Azerbaijani nor the Armenian leader.
Central Asian leaders’ absence from the summit is a different matter
altogether. Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was still pondering
the matter last night but as things stand, there is no pressing
necessity for him to attend the Kishinev summit. Save, probably,
for an opportunity to meet with Medvedev. On the other hand, Bakiyev
met with Sergei Naryshkin of Medvedev’s Presidential Administration
in Bishkek on October 6, so that it could obviate the necessity of
seeking a rendezvous with the Russian president himself.
Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan has just seen Nicholas Sarkozy off
and there is nothing to compel him to go to Kishinev either. Besides,
Nazarbayev discussed "cooperation with CIS countries" with Russian
president’s advisor Victor Chernomyrdin yesterday. As for a meeting
with the Russian president, the two leaders are scheduled to meet on
a shooting range in Kazakhstan on October 16 where a joint exercise
of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization will culminate. In
fact, other CSTO leaders are expected there too so that there is no
need for Nazarbayev to subject himself to inconveniences of travelling.
All of that also applies to Emomali Rakhmon of Tajikistan. First,
he will also meet with his CIS opposite numbers in Kazakhstan on
October 16. Second, he already discussed everything he thought
had to be discussed with Sergei Stepashin of the Russian Auditing
Commission in Dushanbe last week. (Rakhmon and Stepashin go back to
the period of the Tajik civil war in the 1990s.) Third, his state
visit to Russia is scheduled for a few weeks from now. Last but not
the least, Rakhmon is expected in Ashkhabad these days where energy
cooperation with Turkmenistan will be discussed. That energy is more
interesting – and potentially rewarding – than boring CIS matters
need not be said. Also importantly, there is the subject of water
to be remembered. Barely days ago the Turkmen president dropped a
bombshell on its Central Asian neighbors (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and
Kyrgyzstan) and said that they should start paying Turkmenistan for
the water they used for irrigation purposes. Central Asian countries
are still catching their breath and formulating a response. Kyrgyzstan
for one is a country supplying water to its neighbors too.
What really counts, however, is that what we are witnessing is a
demonstration that the Commonwealth is dismissed by its members as
something immaterial. CIS leaders do not regard it as a structure
existing to facilitate political coordination. Already demoted to the
status of a "presidential club", CIS summits seem to be losing even it.