Expert: To exit CSTO Armenia needs ‘strong security guarantees’ from West

MSN
Dec 25 2023
Armenia may decide to withdraw from the CSTO when they receive strong security guarantees from the West. However, this is also linked to Russia's war against Ukraine, says the expert on the South Caucasus at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (Warsaw), Wojciech Wojtasiewicz.

Armenia looks towards the USA

According to Wojtasiewicz, the Armenian authorities have not yet decided how to shape their foreign policy.

"In Yerevan, I often heard that the decision to review relations with Russia is not theirs but Russia's. After Armenians were left face-to-face with Azerbaijan in the Karabakh situation, they wanted to look towards the U.S. and European countries, not participating in the CSTO and CIS meetings. However, they have not explicitly stated an intention to leave these organizations," he noted.

Unofficially, it is said in Yerevan that about a year ago, they talked to American and European politicians about the desire to leave the CSTO. However, the response was that the time had not yet come, and there was a threat of Russia launching a military operation in Armenia.

Armenia has de facto left the CSTO

Similar hints were made in November by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Specifically, when asked about Armenia's continued membership in the CSTO, he said that they would be guided by national interests.

"Our partners in the CSTO must also understand us. If being CSTO members, we cannot receive the necessary assistance and support, and membership is an insurmountable obstacle to receiving assistance from other parties, then we must make decisions based on our interests," he said.

However, many analysts in Armenia emphasize that de facto the country has already left the CSTO, says Wojtasiewicz.

Under what conditions Armenia will leave the CSTO

"For them, reality is more important than official status. I think the Armenian government will decide to leave the CSTO when they receive strong security guarantees from the West. And the West can provide such guarantees only when Russia suffers a defeat in Ukraine. Before that, both the West and Armenia will be very cautious. Most likely, relations with Russia in 2024 will be the same as this year, within the framework of the so-called 'two steps forward, one step back' policy," the expert notes.

This formulation is valid for Armenia's relations with the West as well. Multivectorality is explained, in part, by the Georgian example. When under Mikheil Saakashvili, the course towards Eurointegration was taken, and in 2008, there was Russian aggression in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Currently, Russia plays a significant role in Armenia's foreign policy. Although they do not share common borders, there is a threat that if Yerevan refuses cooperation, Moscow may contribute to the overthrow of the government.

"After the Azerbaijani operation in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, anti-government protests took place in Yerevan. There were concerns that if the demonstrations turned into something more significant, Russia would use them to change the government," Wojtasiewicz added.

For more details on what is happening in the Armenia-West-Russia triangle, read the material by RBC-Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/expert-to-exit-csto-armenia-needs-strong-security-guarantees-from-west/ar-AA1m16kh



AW: Mary Asatryan on finding her roots in Artsakh and seeking revenge through hope

“Every piece of this place is Armenian. You will never build happiness on our blood, pain and tears. If I don’t come back, then my son will. If not my son, then my grandson will. Artsakh—this is the name of my revenge.” 

Mary Asatryan pasted this note on her fridge on September 27, 2023. Asatryan, the assistant to the Artsakh Ombudsman, left the message for the future Azerbaijani occupiers of her home. “A couple of days before the forced exodus, I had so many thoughts and feelings. Before leaving my home at 6 a.m., I delved deep into my heart and wrote that note. I had to see a light at the end of the tunnel to stay sane. I had to feel that we would return. My revenge could be hope. I don’t have the right to throw my arms up. I will fight till my last breath, and maybe I won’t see it, but my descendants will,” Asatryan told the Weekly.

Mary Asatryan in front of a sign welcoming visitors to a Free Artsakh

Asatryan’s roots are from Moush in historic Armenia. She spent her very first paycheck on a trip with her grandmother to her ancestral Moush. She was born in Armenia but grew up in Russia. Asatryan clearly remembers her trips to Armenia and Artsakh growing up and how she would anxiously wait for the summer so she could be in the homeland. She obtained two master’s degrees, one in Belgium and the other in Armenia.

Growing up in the diaspora, Asatrayan was afraid of losing the homeland and made a conscious effort on the path of repatriation. In 2020, Asatryan was in Moscow and remembers feeling survivor’s guilt while sleeping in a warm bed while her brothers and sisters faced a war in Artsakh. When the 2020 Artsakh War ended, Asatryan decided to move to Artsakh. Her family was very concerned since she did not know anyone there. Nevertheless, her family knew that moving to Artsakh was the right thing for her to do, as an Armenian. 

Artsakh was her heart’s calling. She wanted to personally experience the homeland and build her knowledge. She knew that Artsakh was in a constant state of war and that the war never ended, but she felt that it was her personal responsibility to assist however she could. “We have this naïve expectation that the world is going to help us, but we are the only formula,” Asatryan said.

Artsakh was her heart’s calling. She wanted to personally experience the homeland and build her knowledge. She knew that Artsakh was in a constant state of war and that the war never ended, but she felt that it was her personal responsibility to assist however she could. “We have this naïve expectation that the world is going to help us, but we are the only formula,” Asatryan said.

Asatryan applied to iGorts, a program that invites diaspora professionals to serve in the public sector in Armenia and Artsakh, and became the assistant to Artsakh Ombudsman Gegham Stepanyan, moving to Artsakh in September 2022. While her contribution felt like a drop in the ocean, she had to do what she could. “If every Armenian did what they could in their sphere, we wouldn’t be where we are today,” Asatryan said.

Shortly after Asatryan moved to Artsakh, Azerbaijan launched a brutal nine-month blockade on the region in December 2022, restricting all movement and trade between Artsakh and the outside world. Asatryan struggled with not seeing her family, living alone and enduring the blockade with immense deprivations. She documented her personal and professional experiences under blockade, sharing daily updates of the challenges on social media in hopes of raising awareness of the severely underreported crisis. “Our life was invisible, with no gas, no electricity, and I had to bring that reality to people. I felt like I was preaching to the choir, since most of my followers already knew about the blockade. But I had to document. I did the best to utilize my pivotal role,” Asatryan said.

While Asatrayan lived far from her family in Artsakh, she was never alone. “The story with the toothpaste: In one of my interviews I said that I no longer had toothpaste, and as there was nothing to be found in the shops of Stepanakert anymore due to the 10-month-long blockade, I was trying to find other solutions to organize my normal life. Apparently, someone watched that interview and decided to surprise me by bringing toothpaste and leaving it at the reception desk of our office with a small candy. I hadn’t had candy for ages! This is the way we survived during the blockade—helping each other, sharing everything we had left,” Asatryan said.

Toothpaste generosity

On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched a full-scale assault on Artsakh, with the aim to ethnically cleanse its Armenian population and conquer the region. That morning, Asatryan had come home for her lunch break. All of a sudden, there was an explosion. She saw people running down to the shelters and followed them since this was her first experience in a war. Her neighbors had already lived through four wars. 

People expected that Armenia would save Artsakh, and when reality hit that it wouldn’t be the case, the situation became even more painful. In their darkest times, the locals prayed and hoped that Armenia would come to their aid, but this ended in disappointment. In the final days in Artsakh before the forced exodus, there was intense fear that the local Armenian population would not be able to enter Armenia. 

After the attack, public officials were detained. and journalism was shut down. Asatryan continued to share information on her Instagram page. She believed she wouldn’t be able to post once Azerbaijan installed its own internet towers. 

Asatryan believes that Artsakh is not a territorial issue, but rather is deeply rooted in ethnic hatred and the desire to evict the Armenian nation. “We need to take them more seriously. We must be vigilant, because they are arrogant and daring, because they have impunity. We need to mobilize like we did before. We have the spirit, and nothing is impossible. They get away with their blatant aggression, because there is no punishment,” Asatryan said. “We can’t make peace with a side that doesn’t want our existence. The enemy didn’t change, because there was no punishment for 1915, for the Shushi Massacre of 1920, for the Baku, Sumgait, Kirovabad pogroms. We can’t be naive about the enemy’s intent.”

Forced exodus

Over the week following Azerbaijan’s attack, over 100,000 people, virtually the entire Armenian population of Artsakh, fled to Armenia. Some residents, especially the elderly and people with physical or mental illnesses, could not leave Artsakh. There are no clear numbers as to how many Armenians are still in Artsakh, but Asatryan said a couple of dozen were brought to Armenia with the help of the international Committee of the Red Cross. 

Through its attack, Azerbaijan destroyed Artsakh’s infrastructure. Water was not safe to drink, and people could not maintain a normal life. Besides leaving, the only other option was slaughter. “People knew there would be no protection for the Armenians once Azerbaijan took over. Despite our love for the homeland, we knew that we had to save the people so that we could mobilize in the future,” Asatryan said.

Asatryan was one of the last people to leave Artsakh. She was isolated, the only person left in her apartment building, in a ghost town that was now Stepanakert. Asatryan did not want to see her city like that but faced conflicting feelings of not wanting to leave. She decided to stay alive to bring awareness, which built her resolve. “Every day that passed became harder to say goodbye. Our office was one of the last ones to leave, because we had to make sure that the Armenians who were forcibly displaced from the villages were able to get to Armenia,” she said.

Unbelievable pain

Asatryan believes she must carry the identity of the people of Artsakh, revive her community, preserve the Artsakh dialect, save its cuisine and make sure that the Artsakh Armenians do not leave Armenia. She vividly described Artsakh’s spirit as containing pure Armenian values and the best qualities of the Armenian people. She recalled the spirit of the people and their resolve never to forget their heroes like Vazgen Sarkisyan, Monte Melkonian and Dushman Vartan. 

“The melon story: A couple of days before the war of September 19, I was working late in the office, giving an interview on air. As our office had an open-door policy, and generally it was very safe in Artsakh, we never locked our doors. At some point, someone just walked into my room and left a melon on my desk. I couldn’t get distracted from the conversation, and I didn’t manage to see who that was. But then, I searched for that person and figured out it was a young mother, a local journalist, who followed my activities online and decided to thank me for my work this way. Back then, it was almost impossible to find any fruits or vegetables for sale, so she found two small melons for her child, and on her way home she saw that my light was on and I was still working in the office, decided to leave one of them for me, saying, ‘You are a child, too’,” Asatryan said.

Kindness of Artsakhtsis

Most villagers from Artsakh had never been to Armenia. Armenia was the safe haven, but the hopes of a good reception from the government were quickly snuffed. There was a very warm and caring reception from ordinary people and charity organizations that volunteered during the days of the exodus on the border of Armenia and Artsakh. Artsakh Armenians were surprised by this, because during the 10-month-long blockade and isolation, it seemed that nobody cared about them

However, people’s expectations vis-à-vis the government were not met. The Armenian government only gave some financial help. Psychological services were very limited. Preserving the communities and keeping the villagers together became a daunting task. Artsakh Armenians did not know if they were refugees or citizens. 

“My entire time in Artsakh, I never felt alone or abandoned because of the Artsakh people. I wish Armenians treated Artsakhtsis with the same hospitality and warmth that the Artsakh Armenians deserved. When the Artsakhtsis came to register at the refugee centers, the government was placing the forcibly displaced Armenians near the border villages. This was leading to more trauma, since there would be threats of war again. The forcibly displaced Artsakh people wanted to settle in safer places like Yerevan, but they couldn’t afford it. Half of the people didn’t accept the government’s offer,” Asatryan said.

“We shed so much blood, but justice will prevail, and we will be on the right path,” Asatryan said. “War is the other side of peace, but the price paid for peace has been the highest. We must analyze and reflect on our mistakes so that history doesn’t repeat itself. We have a moral duty to our ancestors and to our coming generations. They have a right to have a homeland.”

“I was in a national dance group called Tnjre. The dance group was named after an Artsakh historical tree. It was established in Shushi. We lost people in the 2020 war. Some left. We held classes during the blockade and danced at the Charles Aznavour hall in darkness, but we used dance as resistance. We even gave a performance at the end of May. Now, we are all in Armenia, but we are logistically so far apart from one another,” she continued.

Every family from Artsakh has lost at least one member. More than 20,000 people have perished over the course of four wars in Artsakh in the past 30 years. People have lost homes, lives and loved ones. They have rebuilt homes and livelihoods, but grief is still evident in every family. 

“Speaking, documenting, posting has unlocked thoughts and feelings and has had a therapeutic effect,” Asatryan said. “Artsakh is life and love, never pain. Even losing Artsakh doesn’t change this for me. My love for my homeland was more than anything else. I found my roots. The blockade showed me real values, friends, family and culture. I thought I was strong before in the comforts of the diaspora, where I lived with no deprivation and hadn’t experienced hardships. Artsakh is my happy place, and it’s been the place where I have been the happiest ever,” Asatryan said.

“We shed so much blood, but justice will prevail, and we will be on the right path,” Asatryan said. “War is the other side of peace, but the price paid for peace has been the highest. We must analyze and reflect on our mistakes so that history doesn’t repeat itself. We have a moral duty to our ancestors and to our coming generations. They have a right to have a homeland.”

Asatryan invoked three pillars: Armenia, Artsakh and the diaspora. She said, “One of the pillars is temporarily destroyed, and this should be seen as a threat to all Armenians. An existential threat means we are all threatened. The diaspora has a huge role to play, and the only thing that will save us is human capital. We have done it before, and we can do it again. Our future deserves effort. Our answers and solutions are in our roots.”

Talar Keoseyan is a mother, educator and writer. Talar’s books "Mom and Dad, Why Do I Need to Know My Armenian Heritage?", "Tigran’s Song and "Our Tigran" are available on Amazon. She has been an educator for 26 years and resides in Los Angeles, CA. She can be reached at .


https://armenianweekly.com/2023/12/13/mary-asatryan-on-finding-her-roots-in-artsakh-and-seeking-revenge-through-hope/?fbclid=IwAR1WoGRYELVy9gRVgW31KASPl9Wbioemhj-6PvakoJGyKWPnCncQkZ3jdtg

An Armenian preschool shows how the state used COVID funds to spark innovation

Colorado – Dec 12 2023
METRO

“Once again, we are seeing that folks that are closest to the problems have the best solutions,” said Jennifer Stedron, executive director of Early Milestones Colorado, which distributed the CIRCLE grants.

DENVER | Much of the federal relief aid sent to Colorado’s child care providers during the pandemic helped keep doors open and businesses solvent.

But one small stream of federal COVID funding — $23 million — was used for innovation in the sector rather than its survival. That money was distributed through the CIRCLE Grant program and helped fund more than 200 projects around the state. The projects included weekly bilingual preschool classes for Armenian-American children, a training program for Head Start parents working as classroom aides, and a loan program to help child care employees cover emergency expenses.

While the grant funding represents a fraction of the $678 million in federal COVID relief sent to Colorado’s early childhood sector, program leaders are proud of the grassroots efforts it sparked.

“Once again, we are seeing that folks that are closest to the problems have the best solutions,” said Jennifer Stedron, executive director of Early Milestones Colorado, which distributed the CIRCLE grants.

The yearlong grants ranged from $10,000 to $300,000. Many of them focused on making child care more accessible to families. In some cases, that meant creating new infant and toddler classrooms or sending mobile preschools to underserved neighborhoods. In others, the goal was to better meet specific needs, say, by adding programs for bilingual students or children with disabilities.

The nonprofit Armenians of Colorado Inc. used its $35,000 CIRCLE grant to pilot a free Saturday preschool class that incorporated both English and Armenian. A dozen children attended the program last spring at the First Baptist Church of Denver, some who didn’t know a word of Armenian and some who spoke only Armenian. They listened to poems and stories in Armenian and also did activities in English, including one on the Easter bunny.

The idea was to “show the kids you can use both languages to have academic and social interactions,” said Simon Maghakyan, an activist in the Armenian community and a CIRCLE Grant consultant for Armenians of Colorado. “It’s important they see value in both.”

Some of the children, who ranged in age from 2 to 5, had never attended any kind of preschool, he said. For most, it was “their first introduction to either language in the written form.” The two languages have different alphabets.

The Armenian community has deep roots in Colorado, with some of the earliest immigrants arriving in the late 1800s. Statewide, there are about 5,000 people of Armenian descent. The Armenian Genocide during the World War I era, as well as more recent displacements, have gradually brought more Armenians to the United States and Colorado.

But it’s still a relatively small group, and because of assimilation pressures and the dominance of English globally, it can be a struggle to maintain the Armenian language, Maghakyan said. That’s why the Saturday preschool program is important. The CIRCLE grant supplied only enough money to plan and run a three-month pilot, but leaders with the organization hope to find a way to keep it going in the future.

Besides funding new programming for children, many CIRCLE grant projects focused on supporting the chronically underpaid early childhood workforce with increased wages, training, or other benefits.

The Denver nonprofit WorkLife Partnership used its CIRCLE grant to offer a program that’s usually available to employers for a fee to child care providers free of charge. The program helps employees quickly access small loans at a lower interest rate than payday lenders would charge.

The process is simple: Employees struggling with a large or unexpected expense, such as a security deposit, utility bill, or car repair, can request a $1,000 loan through WorkLife with no credit check or collateral requirement. The money lands in their bank account in as little as 24 hours. They then pay back the loan through monthly payroll deductions over the course of a year. With interest and a $20 administrative fee, the total repayment on a $1,000 loan is $1,116.

Logan Jones, financial services manager for WorkLife, said, “it’s really designed to be an anti-payday loan.” It helps employees, especially those with bad credit, avoid exorbitant interest rates when they’re in crisis.

He said about 15 employees at two participating Denver area child care centers have taken advantage of the loans, most often for housing costs. Borrowers don’t have to say why they’re seeking the loan, but many do later in voluntary surveys, he said.

Jones said that although the loan benefit was offered free to child care providers through the CIRCLE grant, many didn’t take advantage of it because there were so many CIRCLE grant opportunities and offers at the same time.

“It needs to be staggered out longer,” Jones said.

Stedron, of Early Milestones, agreed that the one-year grant timeline was too short.

“I wish they could have gone on forever, certainly more than one year,” she said.

https://sentinelcolorado.com/metro/an-armenian-preschool-shows-how-the-state-used-covid-funds-to-spark-innovation/


Armenia, Azerbaijan breakthrough signals end of Russia’s South Caucasus influence

Dec 9 2023
Armenia and Azerbaijan’s milestone conciliatory announcement caught Russia flat-footed, threatening to end Moscow’s long-held influence as the key power broker in the strategic South Caucasus region.

In a dramatic development, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan issued a surprise joint statement on 7 December, outlining a prisoner exchange and mutual confidence-building measures, while committing to continue negotiations on normalizing relations and reaching a long-elusive peace treaty.

The joint statement by the offices of the Armenian Prime Minister and Azerbaijani President opens the path to a full-fledged peace treaty, as European and American diplomats have indicated.

Most notably, “for humanitarian reasons” and as a “gesture of goodwill,” Azerbaijan agreed to release 32 Armenian military personnel, while Armenia will free two Azerbaijanis. This will be the first mass prisoner-of-war exchange in years, especially on terms so favorable to Armenia.

The countries also concurred on reciprocal symbolic gestures. Yerevan will withdraw its bid to host the next UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) in favor of Baku, and even calls on other Eastern European states to back Azerbaijan’s application. In return, Baku endorses Armenia’s candidacy for membership in the COP Eastern European States Bureau.

This agreement was a sensation, as just days prior there was no indication of such a breakthrough in relations. On the contrary, there were good reasons to expect a sharp deterioration of relations and intensified fighting on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The “one-day war” of 19 September that allowed Baku to regain control of Nagorno-Karabakh had nearly buried peace talks between the countries, according to European Pravda editor Yuriy Panchenko.

For years since the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, a region with a predominantly ethnic Armenian population but located within Azerbaijan, ended in a precarious ceasefire in 1994, negotiations occurred simultaneously in two formats: Western and Russian.

The Western dialogue was important for Baku since Yerevan, which gained control of Nagorno- Karabakh, had to recognize Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. It was also important for Yerevan as security guarantees for Karabakh Armenians were discussed.

Russia, meanwhile, proposed postponing Karabakh status issues (ideal for Armenia but unacceptable to Azerbaijan) while raising the issue of a transport corridor through Armenia (favorable to Baku but completely unacceptable to Yerevan).

Regaining Karabakh completely changed these dynamics.

Now, the Russian track lost all value for Yerevan – one reason for the current freeze in Armenia-Russia relations. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan lost interest in Western mediation, especially amidst accusations of “ethnic cleansing in Karabakh.” As a result, Baku’s statements became increasingly aggressive, raising the likelihood of a new regional conflict.

So why did Baku pivot from bellicose rhetoric towards conciliation? American pressure seems the impetus. Recent weeks saw multiple forceful warnings from Washington about the unacceptability of coercion toward Armenia. Significantly, US State Department sanctions coordinator Jim O’Brien visited Baku the very day this statement emerged, later tweeting about resumed Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks.

The text itself also spotlights “discussions regarding the implementation of more confidence building measures.” Both sides call for international backing to build “mutual trust” and “positively impact the entire South Caucasus region.”

This likely constitutes the key passage, with adversaries confirming readiness to restart dialogue. The immediate result is drastically reduced regional war risks.

But the omission of Moscow from this significant process, despite decades of Russian mediation attempts, constitutes the developments’ sharpest rebuke for the Kremlin. Perhaps consequently, initial official Russian reactions to the agreed statement proved remarkably restrained and understated, with Foreign Ministry representative Maria Zakharova offering routine approval of progress while insisting upon Russia’s past useless “assistance” contributions regarding negotiations.

“We are ready to continue providing all possible assistance in unblocking transport communications, border delimitation, conclusion of a peace treaty, and contacts along the line of civil society,” she claimed.

However, Russia’s mediation appears no longer necessary – further peace talks will occur under EU and US auspices. A signed peace agreement will end Russia’s South Caucasus influence.

Theoretically, the Kremlin can still sabotage talks, given its military presence in both countries. But without political backing in either Armenia or Azerbaijan this is clearly insufficient to change the course of the countries, Panchenko stresses.

“So, if the West is persistent, signing a peace agreement in the coming months-by the middle of next year-is a very realistic scenario, snd this will be a foreign policy disaster for Russia. Hopefully, not the last,” Panchenko sums up.

Do not forget Armenia: Why has an act of blatant ethnic cleansing been widely ignored?

The Critic
Dec 9 2023

Why has an act of blatant ethnic cleansing been widely ignored?

“Who, after all, speaks today of the annihilation of the Armenians?”
— Adolf Hitler, 22 August 1939

December 9th is the International Day of the Convention for the Prevention and Punishment of Genocide. Article II of that Convention defines the crime of genocide as “the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group”. Unfortunately, defining it has not prevented a single genocide since 1948.

The Article in international law that matters for current victims of genocidal projects in Europe (Armenia and Ukraine) is Article 5 of NATO membership — “each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state…to be an armed attack against them all” and not Article II of the Genocide Convention. 

When Hitler evoked the memory of the Turkish “atrocities” against the Armenians in his 1939 speech (the word genocide was not coined until 1944), he was highlighting that massacres in the East in times of war could be committed with impunity and the perpetrators would escape justice. 

Raphael Lemkin helped create the Genocide Convention to remove that impunity and so prevent acts of genocide. Since  some hopeful developments at the turn of the 21st century, this legal project to end genocide has entirely failed. The only thing that prevents genocide is collective security. 

The international human rights industry will use the 9th December to celebrate the elaborate legal processes that have grown up since 1948. There will rightly be much debate about if the Hamas attack on Israel was or was not part of an overall genocidal project: the annihilation of the state of Israel and the Jewish people that live from the River to the Sea. Short answer: it is and should be treated as such, but non-state actors are not covered by the Convention. 

There will be even more focus on if Israel’s response constitutes a programme of genocide against the Palestinian people of Gaza. Short answer: it doesn’t but the IDF is inevitably committing crimes against humanity and war crimes in the manner of its operations given the density of population and the way Hamas is embedded in civilian infrastructure, exactly as Hamas intended.

There will be little discussion of the most blatant genocidal acts committed over the last two years: the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the many crimes that occurred consequently, including the forced transferring of up to 20,000 Ukrainian Children to Russia from Ukraine, and the destruction “in whole or in part” of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh by the Azerbaijani state. 

Given the Crime of Aggression perpetrated in the original 2014 invasion, repeated in February 2022, states that are party to the convention have clearly not done what they can to defend Ukraine from Russian genocide as it has unfolded over nine years. Moreover, these acts have been accompanied by actions that meet the 5 Ds framework of incitement to acts of genocide — dehumanisation, demonisation, delegitimisation, disinformation, and the denial of past atrocities perpetrated against the target.

A similar case can be made for Nagorno-Karabakh. It has been a project that has taken place in stages, with military dimensions, cultural dimensions and finally the ethnic cleansing of 120,000 Armenians from their homes in September 2023. It is a war against the Armenian people in revenge for Armenia’s original seizure of contested territory. 

The origin of the conflict is hotly debated. There is little to debate about the actions of Azerbaijan in the war of 2020, the subsequent and previous destruction of Christian sites and the ethnic cleansing of 2023. Together they constitute genocide. The speeches of Aliyev and surrounding propaganda meet the test of the 5 Ds. 

Armenia’s ratification of the Rome Statute demonstrates its intention to make a referral of Azerbaijan to the ICC. 39 states have made that referral on behalf of Ukraine against Putin. The ICC and the Convention on Genocide having done nothing to prevent Aliyev or Putin, the purpose must now be punishment. The chances of punishment are less than zero. The most that might be achieved is that judgment will provide some kind of symbolic justice.

Both the perpetrating states and their dictators must be found guilty of the Crime of Aggression (for stating wars) and the Crimes of Genocide (Article II and the 5 Ds) so that the international legal judgment is unambiguous. Judgment matters to history but also shapes that which is possible in terms of collective and individual redress, supports the enactment of the ICC files already open and provides ballast to international political support for judicial processes. It is not therefore irrelevant. 

The recurrence of Genocide since 1948, with ever greater regularity, shows that the reality is that the Convention on the Prevention on Genocide does not prevent Genocide. The record of prosecution by courts and tribunals shows that it will not punish any sitting Head of State, though it might facilitate them being judged, and it will only ever bring to justice a fraction of the perpetrators who escape state level judicial processes. 

The fact is: the only thing that can prevent Genocide is collective security. The only guarantee of collective security in Europe is full NATO membership. The only thing that can punish Heads of State that perpetrate wars of aggression accompanied by acts of Genocide, is defeat.

https://thecritic.co.uk/do-not-forget-armenia/

Re-exportation amounts to nearly 80% of growth of Armenian exports to Russia

 11:06,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 27, ARMENPRESS. Re-exportation significantly contributed to the growth in exports from Armenia to Russia in the nine months of 2023, Deputy Finance Minister Vahan Sirunyan has said.

“The big inflow of people and capital from Russia to Armenia continues in conditions of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Re-exportation significantly contributed to the approximately 85% dollar growth in exports to Russia in the nine months of 2023 compared to the same period of last year, it contributed by around 80,6 percentage points, whereas the exports of products of Armenian origin contributed by 4,4 percentage points,” Sirunyan told lawmakers during a parliamentary committee hearing on the state budget performance.

The number of tourists continued to grow in the nine months of 2023, growing 48,4%, which was mostly contributed to by tourists from Russia (29,1 percentage points).

The total number of tourists who visited Armenia in the nine month this year was 1 million 839 thousand.

Pashinyan specifies the condition impeding 7 percent economic growth in 2024

 19:18,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 24, ARMENPRESS. The government will not be able to provide 7 percent economic growth in 2024, unless significant changes are made in the capital expenditures of the state budget, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has stated.

''We have tripled capital expenditures as compared to 2018. In 2024, we will not be able to achieve 7 percent economic growth if we do not make significant changes in the quality of our capital expenditures,'' said Pashinyan, urging the entire state apparatus to follow his instructions precisely in that matter.

Zangezur Copper Molybdenum Combine is not under any sanctions – statement

 12:11,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 23, ARMENPRESS. The Zangezur Copper Molybdenum Combine has issued a statement stating that neither the company nor its shareholders are included in any sanctions list.

Below is the full statement:

"Zangezur Copper-Molybdenum Combine" CJSC (hereinafter referred to as the "Company"), established and existing under the laws of the Republic of Armenia, hereby declares that neither the Company nor its shareholders or ultimate beneficial owners are included in any sanctions lists issued by relevant sanctions authorities as of the date of this statement, and no international sanctions are applicable to the Company.

“Mr. Gleb Trotsenko, who formerly held a beneficial ownership position in the Company, no longer retains such status due to the alienation of all his indirect shares in the Company on October 27, 2023. Currently, there is no relationship between Mr. Trotsenko and the Company.

“Comprehensive information regarding the ultimate beneficial owners of the Company is accessible on the official website of the State Register of Legal Entities of the Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Armenia and can be found at the following link: https://www.e-register.am/am/companies/1501219/declaration/09d58b41-5083-4abd-86c6-179b7740531d.

“Zangezur Copper Molybdenum Combine” CJSC remains steadfast in its commitment to transparent corporate governance, and periodic publication of UBOs declarations according to the Armenian legislation underscores the Company's continuous efforts to uphold the highest standards of business conduct.”

Armenia didn’t veto CSTO decisions at Belarus summit despite not attending

 17:05,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 23, ARMENPRESS. Armenia did not veto the documents that were adopted during the CSTO summit in Belarus which it did not attend, Belarus State Secretary of the Security Council Alexander Volfovich has said.

He said that the documents were agreed upon beforehand.

The Belarusian foreign minister, Sergei Aleinik, confirmed that CSTO decisions are made by consensus. “I have had a telephone conversation with my Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan. We discussed, among other things, these issues and decision-making mechanisms. All decisions that will be made today will be absolutely legitimate. In accordance with the rules and procedures of the organization, all decisions are made by consensus of all member countries. We agreed that following the summit, the CSTO secretary general will visit Yerevan. And, naturally, we will forward all the decisions finalized here within the framework of the conciliation commission to our Armenian partners. And we will count on them to join these decisions,” BelTA quoted him as saying.

The impact of the Israeli conflict on the situation in the region. Will Azerbaijan start a war?

Nov 23 2023
  • Armine Martirosyan
  • Yerevan

Will there be a war

Overlapping conflicts are increasingly complicating and aggravating the world situation. New conflicts divert the attention of the international community from the old ones. And all countries are watching processes seemingly distant from them. Political analysts consider the Arab-Israeli conflict, which flared up again on the background of the Ukrainian conflict, and the last one – on the background of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, as links in the chain of world processes.

Armenian analysts comment on how the Palestinian-Israeli conflict may affect the South Caucasus region and whether Baku will use this situation to invade Armenia.


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“I do not see any special opportunities for the influence of another round of the Arab-Israeli conflict on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. This is evidenced by the statements made from Washington, Brussels and now also from London. The agenda of the collective West as the main moderator of the settlement of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan does not change in connection with the Arab-Israeli war.

The situation in the Gaza Strip, first of all, affects Iran as a country directly involved in this conflict. But still not to the extent that it makes Tehran completely distract from the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, which poses a threat to itself as well.

And Israel is actively using Azerbaijan as an observation, reconnaissance and, in the future, possibly even military bridgehead. So Iran cannot lose sight of the development of the situation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict”.

“Baku can attack Armenia always and at any moment, but the situation in the Gaza Strip is not the kind of conflict that can make international actors ignore it.

In global politics, regional boundaries have long been blurred, and the same US considers the South Caucasus as part of the Middle East. But the issue is not geography, but the essence of this conflict.

The conflict that is unfolding today between Israel and Hamas is elaborate. It is based on the far-reaching calculations of Israel, as well as the U.S. that supports it. It is the destruction of Hamas.

Hamas is a Palestinian Islamist movement and political party. Controls the Gaza Strip in Palestine.

This conflict is manageable. The same Iran – even at the level of Hezbollah – limits itself to diplomacy and statements, and in reality does nothing to prevent Israel from gradually and methodically destroying Hamas.

Hezbollah is a Lebanese paramilitary organization and political party advocating the establishment of an Islamic state in Lebanon modeled on Iran.

Iran understands the risks of the war going beyond the Gaza Strip, given the possible intervention of the United States, which has already sent its aircraft carriers to the Mediterranean Sea to the shores of Israel and Lebanon.

Any conflict is manageable, including ours. The other day, US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien said very clearly that the US is closely monitoring all military movements of Azerbaijani equipment on the border.

So at this stage, attacking Armenia would be a shot in the foot for Aliyev. Aliyev will simply take the path of Saddam Hussein. He understands this perfectly well and is trying to build his claims against Armenia on other possibilities, along other lines. In particular, Aliyev has started making claims against France, accuses Armenia of revanchism, etc.”.

“Any conflict can make adjustments in other regions. Say, the ongoing Ukrainian conflict has affected the situation around the world, especially in the post-Soviet space.

For example, preparations for the war in Ukraine included a 44-day war in Artsakh, which Russia calls a “successfully conducted operation.”

Moscow wanted to act according to the same scenario in Ukraine, but the first stage of this, as they call it, “operation” failed, and much in their plans has changed.

Russia partially ceded its positions in the South Caucasus to Turkey on the condition that Ankara would remain neutral in Ukraine. Which it is doing. Turkey’s actions do not go further than rare condemnations of Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.

But the failure of the first stage of the war in Ukraine, when Russian troops had to retreat from under Kiev and withdraw from the central regions to the south and east, accelerated Russia’s withdrawal from the South Caucasus as well. This automatically increased Turkey’s influence in the region. Turkey, by continuing to cooperate with Russia in various areas, including gas re-export, is gradually squeezing Russia out of the South Caucasus”.

“The attitude towards Armenia in the world has changed. If Armenia in 2020 was perceived as an ally of Russia, even a satellite, dependent on Moscow and not a sovereign state, today the West’s attitude towards Armenia is changing before our eyes. Today, the West considers Yerevan a partner and possible ally in future stages, and this is stated directly.

The adoption of the “Armenia Protection Act of 2023″ by the U.S. Senate speaks volumes. Supportive statements were made by the European Parliament and the European Commission. France, India and a number of other states have started military-technical cooperation”.

“Israel is a state in which incredible resources have been invested over the years. And the position of the U.S. political elite as the main player in the region is well known – the destruction of the closest ally of the United States cannot be allowed.

At some point, the West shifted its attention to the Israeli conflict, which caused some confusion among the political leadership of Ukraine. But today the Biden administration is trying to be present in solving both problems. It is providing military-technical as well as financial assistance to both at the same time.

The expansion of the Israeli war may have risks for us. But I see no possibility of that with the presence and presence of American aircraft carriers and ballistic missile submarines in the Mediterranean.

This is an absolutely clear signal to all players in the region that the involvement of third forces will not be tolerated and there should be no expansion of the war.

Of course, Baku could take advantage of the fact that the attention of the international community is focused on other conflicts and attack Armenia. For the decision to attack has already been made, it is only a question of timing and details.

However, the actions of the U.S., EU and France have made it very clear to Aliyev that in case of such a development of events Azerbaijan will find itself in the status of a state hostile to the West.

I do not think that Aliyev’s regime at this stage is ready to pay such a price, to become a country hostile to the Western world, to ally itself with Russia, North Korea, Belarus. The elite formed around Aliyev should reflect and realize the consequences of their actions”.

“As long as the Aliyev regime exists and as long as its backbone has not been broken, the threat of war will always be there. But Armenia, which lags behind Azerbaijan in terms of military-political balance, must also rebuild its forces.

From the moment Azerbaijan realizes that an attack on Armenia will cost it enormously, we can say that the threat of war is negligible. Today this price does not seem to them to be incredible.

The actions of the US, EU, France, India are aimed at buying time and restoring this balance of power in the region.

We are given time to restore the military-political balance in the region with the help of the West and other friendly countries.

Exactly military-political, because issues are decided not only by the number of weapons, but also by alliances, ties, pacts in which you participate, participation in international economic projects, etc.

And we only have two or three years to do that. Two or three years to do our homework. So that later on, even if the world switches to other problems, we will be able to resist Azerbaijan’s aggression, because it will always have plans to attack Armenia. This is such a country.

https://jam-news.net/will-azerbaijan-armenia-war-start/