Author: Tambiyan Samvel

"Armenia failed to prove Baku’s involvement in the protest on the Lachin road."

Tambiyan Samvel

Feb 24 2023

  • JAMnews
  • Baku

Armenia-Azerbaijan in the Hague

The International Court of Justice weighed the respective claims of Azerbaijan and Armenia against each other. The heavy language of jurisprudence and the lack of intelligible comments in the first hours after the announcement of the court’s verdict led to disagreements both in Baku and Yerevan. According to Armenian sources, the court ordered Azerbaijan to stop the protest on the Lachin road. In Baku, they think quite the opposite.

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For comments on the decisions of the International Court of Justice, JAMnews turned to an Azerbaijani lawyer living in France, Sayad Yusifli.

“Proceeding of counterclaims of Azerbaijan and Armenia against each other in the International Court of Justice continues. The day before yesterday, the court announced verdicts demanding the implementation of interim measures against both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan, in its lawsuit, stated that there is new evidence that in 2021 and after, Armenia, violating its submissions to the International Court of Justice in 2021, deliberately mined the territories to which Azeris were expected to return.

The applicant’s side noted that until August 2022 more than 2,700 mines produced in Armenia in 2021 were found, and more than half of these mines were found in the territories to which the refugees were supposed to return.

At the same time, Azerbaijan added in its statement information about the detection of booby traps that were discovered in October 2022 and deployed by the Armenian armed forces, or these forces actively participated in their deployment. Azerbaijan noted that so far Armenia refuses to communicate information it has on the territories where mines and booby traps are located. Azerbaijan asked the court to make a decision on the provision by Armenia of information on the territories where mines and other explosive installations are located, the number, type and characteristics, as well as to oblige Armenia to stop the installation of new mines and explosive installations in these territories, including the Lachin corridor, and refrain from supporting such actions.

Azerbaijan has appealed to the International Court of Justice against Armenia with regard to environmental damage

Armenia, in response, stated that it was carrying out mining operations on the sovereign territory of Armenia in order to protect itself. Armenia added that according to the trilateral agreement, in November-December 2020, the Kalbajar, Aghdam and Lachin regions were returned to Azerbaijan and since then these territories have been under the control of Azerbaijan. According to Armenia, even if mines were found in those territories, this can be explained by the fact that at the end of the conflict there was still a line of contact inside Nagorno-Karabakh, and in the tripartite statement there are no demands that the strengthening of their positions by the armed forces is unacceptable.

Regarding explosive installations, Armenia stated that these installations were found in settlements located on the “old Lachin corridor” and these territories are under the control of Russian peacekeepers. The Armenian side added that the Armenian armed forces could not enter these territories without being detected by Russian peacekeepers and there is not a single fact pointing to the opposite. Armenia also added that the mines may have been placed by those who were forced to leave their homes.

The court repeated its position, voiced in the decision of December 7, 2021 (Azerbaijan made similar demands at that time) and did not satisfy Azerbaijan’s demands due to lack of evidence.

Quarantine extended in Azerbaijan until May 1; land borders still closed except for Nakhichevan, which requires a permit

Armenia’s appeal to the court states that on December 12, Azerbaijan organized a blockade of the only road connecting 120,000 ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh with the outside world. Armenia asked the court to decide on the unhindered movement of people, vehicles and goods along the Lachin road, as well as an end to the protests blocking movement in both directions.

Armenia claims that the blockade continued by Azerbaijan is part of the policy of ethnic cleansing, and the purpose of this blockade is to bring the living conditions of ethnic Armenians to the impossible, thereby ensuring that they leave these territories.

Armenia added that the blockade was organized by a group of people who call themselves eco-activists, many of whom are known for “hate speech against Armenia on social networks” and “have direct ties to the government of Azerbaijan,” and are even supported by the government.

The tense situation continues for the second day in Karabakh due to the blocking of the road connecting Khankendi (Stepanakert) with Armenia.

In response, Azerbaijan stated that the Lachin corridor is under the control of Russian peacekeeping forces. It added that since the beginning of the protests, over 1,000 vehicles have passed through the Lachin corridor and no cases of use of force between Azerbaijani protesters, corridor users and Russian peacekeepers have been recorded. Azerbaijan claims that there is no evidence in favor of protesters blocking the access of medical care from Armenia, as well as the transportation of food, medicines and other necessary goods to Nagorno-Karabakh.

The court demanded that Azerbaijan ensure the uninterrupted operation of the Lachin corridor until a final decision is made. At the same time, the court rejected Armenia’s demand to stop the protest.

Thus, the court demanded Azerbaijan ensure traffic along the Lachin corridor, but did not put forward any demands to stop the protest.”

https://jam-news.net/armenia-azerbaijan-in-the-hague/



Armenian cultural museum reopens after years of renovation near Old City’s Damascus Gate in Jerusalem

Tambiyan Samvel
Milwaukee Independent
Feb 18 2023

Posted by Reporter | Feb 18, 2023


A hundred years after taking in scores of children whose parents were killed in the Armenian genocide, a 19th-century orphanage in Jerusalem’s Armenian Quarter has reopened its doors as a museum documenting the community’s rich, if pained, history.

The Mardigian Museum showcases Armenian culture and tells of the community’s centuries-long connection to the holy city. At the same time, it is a memorial to around 1.5 million Armenians killed by the Ottoman Turks around World War I, in what many scholars consider the 20th century’s first genocide.

Turkey denies the deaths constituted genocide, saying the toll has been inflated and that those killed were victims of civil war and unrest.

Director Tzoghig Karakashian said the museum is meant to serve as “a passport for people to know about the Armenians” and to understand their part of Jerusalem’s history.

The museum reopened in late 2022 after a more than five-year renovation project. Before that, the building — originally a pilgrim guesthouse built in the 1850s — served as a monastery, an orphanage for children who survived the genocide, a seminary and ultimately a small museum and library.

Jerusalem is home to a community of around 6,000 Armenians, many of them descendants of people who fled the genocide. Many inhabit one of the historic Old City’s main quarters, a mostly enclosed compound abutting the 12th-century Armenian cathedral of St. James.

But the Armenians’ link to the holy city stretches back centuries, from monks and pilgrims during the late Roman Empire to Armenian queens of Crusader Jerusalem.

The museum’s centerpiece, filling the sunlit courtyard, is an exquisite 5th or 6th century mosaic adorned with exotic birds and vines discovered in 1894 on the grounds of an ancient Armenian monastery complex. It bears an inscription in Armenian dedicated to “the memorial and salvation of all Armenians whose names the Lord knows.”

For decades, the mosaic remained in a small museum near the Old City’s Damascus Gate. In 2019, the Israeli Antiquities Authority and the Armenian Patriarchate undertook the laborious task of removing the mosaic floor and transporting it across town to the newly refurbished museum.

From elaborately carved stone crosses known as “khachkars” to iconic painted tiles and priestly vestments, the museum showcases Armenian material art, while also excelling in telling the Armenian story of survival. While Jerusalem changed hands as empires rose and fell, the Armenians remained.

“Surviving means to not be seen,” said Arek Kahkedjian, a museum tour guide. “We survived without people knowing what or who we are, and today we feel ready to show you and teach about the history and heritage, about the culture, and to show you how we advance and modernize with the times.”

http://www.milwaukeeindependent.com/newswire/armenian-cultural-museum-reopens-years-renovation-near-old-citys-damascus-gate-jerusalem/


Armenian Soldier Injured from Azerbaijani Shooting

Tambiyan Samvel
by Asbarez Staff

 

 February 14, 2023

 

in Armenia, Artsakh, Featured Story, Latest, News, Top Stories

A soldier on the frontline


A soldier of the Armenian Armed Forces was injured Tuesday when Azerbaijani forces opened fire on Armenian positions.

According to Armenia’s Defense Ministry, at around 6:06 p.m. local time, Azerbaijani soldiers began firing on Armenian military positions in the Norabek village in the Gegharkunik Province.

The soldier is in stable condition and his injuries are not life threatening, the defense ministry said, adding that an investigation was underway to pinpoint the circumstances of the incident.

Could the New EU Mission Sideline Russia in Armenia-Azerbaijan Settlement?

Tambiyan Samvel

Feb 16 2023

If the Europeans end up securing relative peace for Armenia and corroborate Azerbaijan’s border encroachments, it will be undeniable that Russia is not the only force Yerevan can rely on.
Kirill
Krivosheev

The international presence in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict zone is once again expanding, with an EU monitoring mission set to join Russian peacekeepers there. Since the Europeans were invited by Armenia, they will only be able to work on the Armenian side of the border: they won’t be permitted to enter Azerbaijan, including the Armenian-controlled part of the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region.

But following the hostilities of 2020, the internationally recognized Armenia-Azerbaijan border also deserves close attention. Several serious clashes resulting in numerous casualties have occurred there as Baku seeks to demonstrate what could be in store for Yerevan if Armenia doesn’t sign a peace agreement on Azerbaijan’s terms.

The EU mission scheduled to be deployed in the next month is modest in size and powers, consisting of just 100 unarmed monitors. That said, they are to stay for two years, which will likely prove decisive for the future of the region. The EU mission will be winding down in 2025, at about the same time the fate of the 2,000-strong Russian peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh will be decided. 

Yerevan considers the EU involvement a major diplomatic victory, since if the situation at the border escalates again and Azerbaijan attacks internationally recognized Armenian territory, it will need an independent party to corroborate that.

Yerevan needs outside monitors because despite their alliance obligations to Armenia, Russia and the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have repeatedly refused to take on this role, taking a demonstratively neutral stance on the border conflict and refusing to confirm or deny the occupation of Armenian territory. 

At the same time, pro-government analysts in Azerbaijan make no bones about the real reasons behind these escalations: Baku needs them to force Yerevan to sign a peace agreement on Azerbaijan’s terms. The Azerbaijani authorities and public see nothing wrong with such tactics: after all, Armenia previously occupied far more of its enemy’s territory than Azerbaijan is doing right now.

In this context, cooperation with the EU is a rare opportunity for Yerevan to strengthen its positions. The first, almost symbolic European mission arrived in the conflict zone after the Armenia-Azerbaijan summit in Prague last October. More of a consolation prize for the Armenian side, it consisted of just forty monitors and lasted for two months.

Back then, Yerevan and Baku were discussing the possibility of formulating a peace agreement by the end of 2022, and the presence of European monitors was meant to give more confidence to the Armenians. But with no quick agreement in sight and the European monitors leaving in December that year, Yerevan began to worry that border skirmishes that left 197 troops dead last September might be repeated.

Despite Azerbaijan’s disagreement, Armenia managed to convince the EU to deploy another monitoring mission to the region, this time consisting of 100 monitors for two years. The Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin Corridor from Armenia to Karabakh that has been in place since the end of last year was likely an additional factor in Brussels’ decision. 

Turning two months of breathing space into two years is a considerable success for the Armenians. After all, it is Baku that is urging the signing of a peace agreement, while Yerevan has always tried to postpone any decision in the hope of getting better terms in the future.

While Moscow is losing Armenia’s trust through its unwillingness to pressure Azerbaijan, it makes sense for the European Union to increase its presence in the region. The new mission of 100 monitors is not the boldest move Brussels could make, but it’s sufficient to fuel pro-Western sentiment in Armenia. The EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell has openly called the mission “a new phase of EU engagement in the South Caucasus.”

Moscow’s reaction was predictable. The Russian Foreign Ministry accused the EU of carrying out U.S. policy that “can only bring geopolitical confrontation and escalate existing disagreements in the region.” Moscow’s statement also contained a veiled threat that the Russian border troops deployed to the Armenian border since 1992 “will react to the behavior of the EU monitors considering the developments on the ground.”

In fact, Russian border troops had plenty of chances to react to the situation on the ground last September, but they chose not to. The Armenian Defense Ministry claims that a Russian border post was damaged in the shooting, and media published photos appearing to prove those claims, but the Russian authorities deny the allegations. 

Like Moscow, the EU cannot be completely unbiased in its dealings in the South Caucasus. The Europeans will keep in mind the volatility of their gas and oil markets following reduced shipments from Russia. If the need arises, Azerbaijan could supply the required volumes (in fact, it could even be Russian gas that Baku would resell, or Russian oil products refined in Azerbaijan: a scheme recently exempted from sanctions).

Nevertheless, the EU could become a more reliable advocate for Armenia, and not just out of humanitarian and legal considerations. The EU mission is yet another opportunity to sideline Moscow in the South Caucasus. At the end of last year, Russia and the West each put forward their own peace agreement proposal to the parties to the conflict. Armenia preferred the Russian draft, since it postponed the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh question, while Azerbaijan gravitated toward the West’s proposal. If the EU ends up securing relative peace for Armenia and corroborates Azerbaijan’s border encroachments, it will be undeniable that Russia is not the only force Yerevan can rely on.

Work on the peace agreement has now slowed. The Armenians believe—not without reason—that it would be imprudent to make such a critical decision while the world is preoccupied with Ukraine. The West and Russia may offer the South Caucasus something new once they free up their resources.

Armenia hopes that the world will be more predictable in two years’ time: that the Ukraine conflict may have deescalated, and that Turkey may have entered a period of greater stability, regardless of whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wins the upcoming elections.

Of course, these hopes can hardly be described as a well thought-out strategy, but Armenia has long learned not to make far-reaching plans. In November and December, the presence of just forty European observers helped to reduce shooting and avoid the need to make new concessions. The chances are that that might just work again.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89060

FM urges int’l community to support Armenian democracy, including through condemning and preventing aggression

Tambiyan Samvel

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 16:36,

YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 21, ARMENPRESS. On September 20, on the margins of the 77th session of the UN General Assembly in New York, Foreign Minister of Armenia Ararat Mirzoyan participated and delivered remarks at the "Democracy Delivers" event organized by the US Agency for International Development (USAID), attended by a number of heads of state and high-level officials, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, heads of private corporations and foundations.

In his remarks, Ararat Mirzoyan noted that in recent years, the Armenian people have voted for democracy twice through free and fair elections, the foreign ministry said.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia noted that democratic reforms are being largely implemented in Armenia, the rule of law is ensured, human rights and fundamental freedoms are protected and the unyielding fight against corruption is one of the government's priorities. In this context, Minister Mirzoyan emphasized that Armenia is continuously improving its positions in reputable international rankings for indicators such as democracy, economic freedom, fight against corruption, thus becoming more attractive to the world.

The Foreign Minister of Armenia noted that democratic values and principles cannot be compromised for Armenia and urged the international community to support Armenian democracy, including through condemnation and prevention of the aggression against Armenia.

Putin calls for calm as Azerbaijan and Armenia engage in deadliest clashes since 2020

Tambiyan Samvel
Sept 13 2022
Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber

By Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber

TBILISI (Reuters) -At least 49 Armenian soldiers and an undisclosed number of Azeris were killed on Tuesday in the deadliest fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia since a 2020 war, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to appeal for calm.

Armenia and Azerbaijan, neighbouring former Soviet states, blamed each other for the renewed fighting which began overnight at several points along their border, raising fears of another major armed conflict in the former Soviet Union while Russia's military is tied up in Ukraine.

Russia has peacekeeping troops in the Azeri-Armenian conflict zone as guarantor of an agreement that ended a six-week war over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh two years ago.

Yerevan said Azerbaijan had shelled towns near the border including Jermuk, Goris and Kapan, forcing it to respond. Baku said Armenian sabotage units had sought to mine Azeri positions and began the shooting.

It also accused Armenian troops of firing heavy weapons in violation of a ceasefire reached earlier on Tuesday.

Reuters was unable to immediately verify battlefield accounts from either side.

"It is difficult to overestimate the role of the Russian Federation, the role of Putin personally," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

"The president is naturally is making every effort to help de-escalate tensions at the border."

UKRAINE AND CAUCASUS

Russia's war in Ukraine has undermined its status as a regional security guarantor, leaving room for Azerbaijan to make more claims, said Laurence Broers, associate fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Programme of Chatham House think tank.

Azerbaijan, which is politically and culturally linked to Turkey, made significant territorial gains in 2020, reclaiming land lost to ethnic Armenians in an earlier war over Nagorno-Karabakh 30 years before.

"Since February, we also have been seeing the collapse of Russia's reputation as a security patron and a provider of security in the region," Broers said. "That has created a window of opportunity for Azerbaijan, recalling that the outcome of the second war in 2020 left unfinished business."

The CSTO, a Russian-led military alliance of former Soviet states that includes Armenia but not Azerbaijan, met on Tuesday to discuss the situation.

Turkey reiterated its support for its ally Azerbaijan, with Defence Minister Hulusi Akar quoted by his ministry as saying that Turkey "will continue to stand by it in its just causes."

"Responsibility for the provocation, clashes and losses lies with the military-political leadership of Armenia," Azerbaijan's foreign ministry said. "Any actions against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Azerbaijan will be resolutely prevented."

BORDER FIGHTING

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan accused Azerbaijan of attacking Armenian towns because it did not want to negotiate over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave which is inside Azerbaijan but populated mainly by ethnic Armenians.

He said the intensity of hostilities had decreased although attacks from Azerbaijan continued.

Azerbaijan, which accused Armenian troops of carrying out intelligence activity and moving weapons along the border, said its military positions came under attack by Armenia. It said it sustained losses but did not disclose the number of casualties.

Both Russia and the United States called on Baku and Yerevan to observe restraint.

"Whether Russia tries in some fashion to stir the pot, to create a distraction from Ukraine, is something we're always concerned about," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters, adding Russia could also use its influence to help "calm the waters."

Russia's foreign ministry said the conflict "should be resolved exclusively through political and diplomatic means".

The Azeri and Russian defence ministers spoke on Tuesday and agreed to take steps to stabilise the situation on the border. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu held talks with his Azeri counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov and called for Armenia to "cease its provocations".

Charles Michel, president of the European Council, also urged the sides to de-escalate. Michel met with Pashinyan and Azerbaijaini President Ilham Aliyev last month in Brussels for talks on the normalisation of ties, humanitarian issues and the prospect of a peace treaty over Nagorno-Karabakh.

EU Special Representative Toivo Klaar was set to travel to both countries to support efforts to curb the violence.

France will raise the clashes at the U.N. Security Council, the office of President Emmanuel Macron said.

(Additional reporting by Nailia Bagirova, Jake Cordell, Maxim Rodionov and Sabine Seibold; Editing by Andrew Heavens, Guy Faulconbridge, Ed Osmond, Peter Graff and Jonathan Oatis)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/armenian-russian-defence-ministers-discuss-064126558.html

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Artsakh Security Council: There is organized campaign against Vitali Balasanyan

Tambiyan Samvel
NEWS.am
Armenia – Aug 26 2022
19:37, 26.08.2022

An organized campaign is held against Vitali Balasanyan in order to try to discredit the good name of the figure who has an indispensable contribution to the defense and strengthening of the Artsakhi statehood, the Security Council of Artsakh stated in regard with the photo which is publicized in the social networks and in which the Secretary of the Security Council of Karabakh Vitaly Balasanyan is allegedly shaking hands with an Azerbaijani official.

The statement reads in part:

"In recent days, some social networks, as well as resources carrying out information activities, "spin" one of the photos of the Secretary of the Artsakh Security Council Vitaly Balasanyan, as well as publish false information that, allegedly, "Vitaly Balasanyan holds a handshake Berdzor."

Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic of Artsakh by his profession constantly visits different settlements of the republic, deals with security issues and performs official functions.

This photo was taken under unknown circumstances when Vitaly Balasanyan was on a regular working visit to one of the Russian peacekeeping forces bases on the section of Stepanakert-Artsakh-Goris interstate highway close to Shushi city where he was engaged, in particular, in the security issues connected with the launch of the new route connecting Artsakh and Armenia.

Analyzing the "comments" to the photo spread on the Internet, we came to the conclusion that an organized campaign is held against Vitaly Balasanyan in order to try to discredit the good name of the figure, who has an indispensable contribution in the defense and strengthening of the statehood of Artsakh.

In this connection, we responsibly declare that the Secretary of the Artsakh Security Council Vitaly Balasanyan has never engaged in activities contradicting the interests of the Armenian people during his entire biography. Since Balasanyan took office as the Secretary of the Security Council on December 5, 2020, he has devoted himself to the mission of restoring Karabakh's security positions, the results of which we can all feel in our daily lives.

We urge everyone to stop dishonest attempts to produce and spread irresponsible rumors, and we urge our compatriots not to believe slander.

At the same time, we assure that the authorities of the Republic of Artsakh are doing everything possible to ensure a proper security environment in the Republic.

After Armenians set their houses on fire, Azeri fire-fighters arrived in Lachin

Tambiyan Samvel
The Caucasian Knot
Aug 22 2022
After at least two villagers in the Lachin Corridor have burned down their houses before evacuation, Azerbaijani fire-fighters, escorted by Russian peacemakers, arrived in the town of Lachin (Berdzor).

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that by August 20, all residents had left the Nerkin Sus community; and a few families still remained in Berdzor (the Azerbaijani name is Lachin) and the village of Akhavno (Zabukh), the head of the Kashatag District of Nagorno-Karabakh has informed, adding that the territories would be handed over to Azerbaijan on August 25. Local residents complained that they were given very little time to find new housing and evacuate.

Earlier it was reported that at least two houses were burned down by residents of the village of Akhavno. Another house was burned down in Lachin, the "Turan" Mews Agency has reported.

"Russian soldiers will stop attempts to set fire to houses and objects; and Azerbaijani fire-fighters will extinguish the fire. Armenians have burned down two residential houses in the village of Zabukh and one house in the town of Lachin," wrote the author of the "Wind from Apsheron" blog run on the "Caucasian Knot".

On August 12, the President of Azerbaijan stated that people who "had illegally settled" in Lachin (Berdzor) and the villages of Zabukh (Akhavno) and Sus should leave there "of their own free will"; and the families from Azerbaijan who had left these places in the 1990s would settle there.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on at 02:54 pm MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.

See earlier reports:
Over 90% of Berdzor and Akhavno residents evacuated, Karabakh: all Akhavno villagers decide to leave their houses, Realtors assess chances of forced migrants from Berdzor to acquire housing in Armenia.

Source: Caucasian Knot
Источник:
© Кавказский Узел

Man, 42, calls, threatens to blow up police building of Armenia’s Ashtarak

Tambiyan Samvel
NEWS.am
Armenia – Aug 22 2022
15:26, 22.08.2022

At 10:25pm on Sunday, a person called the Police of Armenia, and stated that if his acquaintance is not released by the Ashtarak city police in ten minutes, he will blow up the Ashtarak police building and harm this police department's management, the police informed.

Within minutes, the Ashtarak police determined the identity and location of this caller.

This 42-year-old man was found on an Ashtarak street and detained 25 minutes after the aforesaid call.

Criminal proceedings have been launched.

This man was taken to the Ashtarak police detention facility.

An investigation is underway.

Forecast: With the surrender of Berdzor, Azerbaijani military blackmail will not stop

Tambiyan Samvel
ARMINFO
Armenia – Aug 5 2022
David Stepanyan

ArmInfo.The purpose of the latest Azerbaijani attacks on the positions of the Artsakh Defense Army is to force Armenia to build a road bypassing Berdzor in order to  surrender it. Political scientist Armen Vardanyan expressed a similar  opinion to ArmInfo. 

"And I absolutely do not expect such a policy of military blackmail  to stop after the construction of this road.  Baku's recent military  provocations were just a warning and ultimatum. And they will  continue until they come across either a symmetrical response or  diplomatic agreements. One way or another , but Aliyev clearly does  not intend to make concessions on the issue of Berdzor. So the  surrender of the city is only a matter of time," he said.

In making this forecast, the political scientist relies on the fact  of the inaction of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Artsakh,  which is absolutely not going to somehow interfere in the hostilities  in the territory under its control. And after the withdrawal of the  last units from Armenia, the Artsakh Defense Army will obviously not  be able to resist the large-scale Azerbaijani aggression.

"The inaction of the peacekeepers is explained simply – their goal is  not at all to protect the people of Artsakh at the cost of their own  lives. Moscow's goal is monopoly control over the  Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict through its own military. In other  words, their goal is not peacekeeping, but geopolitics. And the  results of the clashes in the corridor in this sense are not new at  all. We have already encountered a similar situation in Khtsaberd and  Parukh," Vardanyan recalled.

According to the political scientist, against such a background, the  only possible step for Armenia is to contain the militant impulses of  Baku by military means. Since the possibility of a serious  counteraction to Azerbaijani aggression by the Russian Federation, at  best, may be  in 2025, after the end of the term of deployment of the  Russian military in Artsakh.  And this is only if Baku demands their  immediate withdrawal. Commenting on the second, "corridor" vector of  Azerbaijani pressure on Armenia, Vardanyan noted that Baku's attempts  to break through an extraterritorial corridor through Syunik are  unlikely to succeed. According to him, such a scenario is a red line  for Armenia. And any attempts by Aliyev to break through the corridor  by force will run into opposition from Iran, the West, and possibly  Russia," the political scientist summed up.