NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT BETWEEN HAMMER AND ANVIL: TRENDNEWS COMMENTATOR
Trend News Agency
23.09.08 18:15
Azerbaijan
Elmira Tariverdiyeva, commentator of European Department of Trend News
Russia’s recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
played the role of the catalyst, which warmed up and provided
motion for the unresolved territorial disputes in the post-Soviet
territory. So, good chance appears for Azerbaijan to solve the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
The issue with whose help Azerbaijan will resolve the problem is the
key item of the agenda.
Today several countries experience the need to strengthen their
positions in South Caucasus. Azerbaijan is the strategic place of
intersection of the energy and transport interests of Russia, Turkey
and the USA. And each of the countries makes efforts in order to
demonstrate themselves as the main mediator in the lingered conflict
between Armenia and Azerbaijan, of course, pursuing its own interests.
Serious competition is expected in order to become a mediator. The
country who proposes effective solution will win. A number of visits
demonstrated certain political line in the region and probably caused
the concerns of Bush Administration.
For the first time in the history, the Turkish President visited
Armenia. Russian foreign minister visited Turkey. The Azerbaijani
foreign minister arrived in Moscow. And finally, the President of
Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, made an official visit to Russia, holding a
number of meetings with his Russian counterpart Dmitri Medvedev. During
these visits, numerous discussions were organized on the solution of
the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. These developments took place without
direct participation of the United States.
The reasons of every side are clear. Russia tries to smooth the
impression of international community from "the coercion to peace"
of Georgia and achieve certain progress in regulating conflicts,
including in the territory of Azerbaijan.
At the same time Turkey actively carries out work to develop a draft
Platform on co-operation in Caucasus jointly with Russia. In case
Turkish project is successful, the problems in Caucasus will be solved
through the forces of regional players, without interference of the
outer sides – such as the United States and the European Union. Turkey
and Russia can obtain significant dividends from this co-operation. In
future these countries would be able to go to the mutual recognitions:
we recognize North Cyprus, they – South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And
already on the basis of Turkey’s initiatives, the problems in the
Caucasus will be solved.
Furthermore, Turkey and Russia are exactly those countries, which are
capable to "convince" Armenia that it can only gain from releasing
the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. Possibly, Armenia will be
promised to host a pipeline route, or participate in the energy
projects. Indeed the economic situation in Armenia directly depends
on the re-establishment of transport communication and opening of
borders with Turkey and the Russian assistance.
Turkish Foreign Minister confirmed such possibility in his interview
with Reuters. Armenia could have gained economic dividends from
opening of borders and restoration of railway communication with
a big neighbor – Turkey, he said. " Armenia can also serve as an
alternative for a gas pipeline that runs to West through Georgia’s
territory from the Caspian Sea," Babacan added.
Originality of this political milestone is that the new format of
solution to Caucasus problems emerges due to the Turkey’s ‘Platform’
initiative which promises to be more successful than OSCE Minsk Group
who failed to reach an acceptable resolution over 16 year.
However, the United States is not going to hand over mediation in
such crucial problem for oil-rich Azerbaijan.
Matthew Bryza, co-chairman of OSCE Minsk Group visited Azerbaijan at
the order of Condoleezza Rice on 17 September.
Bryza held consultations with the Azerbaijani government, putting
every effort so that the European and American mediators did not
lose significance. "The United States is going to work harder to
solve twenty-year-old conflict between two former Soviet republics –
Azerbaijan and Armenia that broke out because of Nagorno-Karabakh. The
United States fully supports sovereignty and territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan and is prepared to help solve the problem. The agreement
must be reached on the basis of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan,"
he said to journalists in Baku.
However, another Minsk Group co-chairman Bernard Fassier noted
carefully during his visit to Baku on 19 September that "interim
resolution" is proposed in Nagorno-Karabakh "until future
self-determination of Nagorno-Karabakh population". But, the
co-chairman did not clarify what he meant by "interim resolution".
Undoubtedly, the wish of the opposite side is also significant in the
resolution of a land dispute. Many called into question the success
of Turkey’s initiative because of bad relations between Ankara and
Yerevan. However, rejecting Turkey’s mediation, Minsk group would be
without alternative in the resolution of the conflict between Armenia
and Azerbaijan.
Foreign Minister of Armenia shattered hopes of sole mediation in the
resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by stating that " Turkey can
help resolve Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, everything should
be solved within the framework of Minsk Group".
It is not so important who will contribute to the liberation of
Azerbaijani lands in the long run. If joint efforts of all interested
parties can yield a positive result, perhaps it would be worth for
Turkey, Russia and the United States to give up their own interests
and sit at talks table for the sake of peace in Caucasus region.
The correspondent can be contacted at: [email protected]