Iran warns of turning Caucasus into battlefield

Al-Mayadeen
Dec 21 2023

The Iranian and Armenian presidents speak over the phone regarding political developments in the region, as well as regional cooperation.

During a phone call with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi warned against attempts by countries outside the Caucasus to gain a foothold in the region, and also warned against making the region a battleground. 

“The Islamic Republic’s policy toward the Caucasus is fixed,” he said, noting that it “must not turn into a field of competition between extra-regional countries, and its issues should be resolved by regional countries and away from foreign meddling.”

Regarding Armenia’s intention to develop road and railway connection routes between the two nations in addition to regional states, Raisi relayed Iran's support, calling the plans an effective step to set in place peace and protect the interests of neighboring nations.

Raisi affirmed that any step aimed at opening communication routes and infrastructures in the region, while simultaneously respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries is supported by Iran. He also called Iran's hosting of the 3+3 meeting in October a “constructive step” to strengthen regional cooperation.

The 3+3 format cooperation mechanism includes the three South Caucasus countries: Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan plus Russia, Turkey, and Iran.

“Developing relations with neighbors and strengthening relations to ensure mutual interests and the interests of regional countries is the fundamental policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Raisi added.

On the other hand, Pashinyan stated that the increased interactions between both Armenia and Iran show the determination of the two neighbors to expand their bilateral ties in all fields.

Back in October, Raisi said that geopolitical change in the Caucasus is "unacceptable" as it would harm the interests of countries in the region. The Iranian President made the statement after hosting Azerbaijani and Armenian officials for talks on the successive developments in the Caucasus, specifically regarding Azerbaijan's military campaign in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iran-warns-of-turning-caucasus-into-battlefield

FM Mirzoyan, UN official exchange views on regional issues

 16:29,

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 15, ARMENPRESS.  On December 15, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Ararat Mirzoyan had a meeting with Tatiana Molcean, UN Under Secretary-General, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the foreign ministry said in a readout.

According to the source, during the meeting, topics of cooperation between Armenia and the UN institutions, including the UN Economic Commission for Europe, and the implementation of joint projects were discussed. The possibilities of further cooperation on developing sectoral directions, including energy and infrastructure, and the implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals were touched upon.

Ararat Mirzoyan and Tatiana Molcean exchanged views on the regional issues as well. In the context of the peace agenda and expected economic benefits, the "Crossroads of Peace" project developed by the Government of Armenia was touched upon.




Central Bank of Armenia: exchange rates and prices of precious metals – 14-12-23

 17:04,

YEREVAN, 14 DECEMBER, ARMENPRESS. The Central Bank of Armenia informs “Armenpress” that today, 14 December, USD exchange rate up by 0.46 drams to 404.58 drams. EUR exchange rate up by 6.04 drams to 441.56 drams. Russian Ruble exchange rate up by 0.02 drams to 4.51 drams. GBP exchange rate up by 6.40 drams to 512.20 drams.

The Central Bank has set the following prices for precious metals.

Gold price up by 50.75 drams to 25787.46 drams. Silver price down by 2.65 drams to 295.60 drams.

Azerbaijan President Accuses India And France Of Fuelling Armenia’s Fire Of ‘Revenge’ For Loss In Nagorno-Karabakh War

Swarajya Magazine, India
Dec 8 2023
SWARAJYA STAFF

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev vented out his anger against India and France for supplying weapons to Armenia, accusing them of fuelling tensions in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Aliyev warned that such weapons deliveries could "trigger a new war in the region", adding that he had "already given advance warning to everybody".

Speaking at a conference in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, Aliyev targeted India and France, stating, "countries like France and India are adding fuel to the fire by supplying arms to Armenia. These countries are creating illusions in Armenia that thanks to these weapons they can take back Karabakh."

In recent months, Armenia has signed multiple weapons deals with India and France.

Two months ago, Armenia and France finalised a deal for three Thales Grand Master (GM) 200 radars and short-range surface-to-air missiles.

India has supplied Armenia with weapons worth close to half a billion dollars, including the Pinaka Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher, anti-tank missiles, rockets and ammunition.

India is also delivering 155mm artillery guns to Armenia, with the first batches of equipment reportedly completed. Reports suggest India is considering sending another batch of weapons to Armenia to counter Azerbaijan’s aggression.

These deliveries are causing heartburn within the Azerbaijani establishment, who fear potential Armenian reprisals following their defeat and subsequent withdrawal from the Nagorno-Karabakh province.

Some ideological aspects of Organization of Turkic States: instrumentalization of Turkish Eurasianism

 14:57, 7 December 2023

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 7, ARMENPRESS. Turkey activated its policy toward the Central Asian Turkic states after the 44-day Nagorno-Karabakh War. The outcomes of the war gave official Ankara a new impetus and confidence to re-engage actively in the Turkic world. The Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) declared 2023 the “Year of the Rise of Turkic Civilization” to coincide with the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Republic of Turkey. Similarly, another development reflecting the solidarity culture was the awarding of the “Supreme Order of the Turkic World” by the OTS to Erdogan for his constructive contributions to the integration processes of the Turkic World [1]. It is hard to argue the fact that OTS is gaining more momentum year by year and is gaining significant influence in the region. Despite being founded barely a decade ago in 2009 (with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan as members), this organization has grown into a new regional instrument for advancing international cooperation in the Eurasian continent. OTS's success can be attributed, in part, to its solid ideological basis that unites the peoples of member countries. As the organization develops the bottom-up integration strategy for its development, it relies on some ideas of Eurasianism that will be analysed below.

The role of common culture in unity

After the Cold War, Eurasianism (Avrasyacılık) became increasingly popular in the Turkish political discourse. Nevertheless, scholars and politicians in Turkey have been interpreting different types of Eurasianism. For instance, during the 1990s, Turkey aimed to become a member of the European Union. Thus, western-oriented Eurasianism in Turkey appeared. Multiculturalism became an important part of Turkish Eurasianism at that time. However, this approach changed very soon when Turkey decided not to try to enter the European Union and concentrated on the East. Thus, the multicultural content of Eurasianism changed into a Turkic culture-based approach. Pan-Turkist Eurasians in Turkey, for example, argue that Turkic peoples might implement their geopolitical ambitions in Eurasia by utilizing the potential for unification of Turkish ethnicity and culture. Another discourse, Neo-Ottomanist Eurasianism, emphasizes racial-cultural identities as a basis for Eurasian solidarity. Turkey pays a lot of attention to its cultural ties to other regional countries. Having a common cultural identity is a good basis for creating and developing tight relations with Turkic states. That is why OTS has such organizational bodies as the Turkic Culture and Heritage Foundation, TURKSOY, and Turkic Academy.

The objectives of the Turkic Culture and Heritage Foundation are to protect, study, and promote the Turkic culture and heritage through support and funding of activities, projects and programs. The Foundation assists in organizing seminars, workshops, conferences, congresses, and field studies, as well as exhibitions and sponsoring contests, festivals, tournaments, etc. TURKSOY (the International Organization of Turkic Culture) has been carrying out activities to strengthen the ties of brotherhood and solidarity among Turkic peoples, transmit the common Turkic culture to future generations and introduce it to the world. The Turkic Academy was founded to coordinate scientific research on the language, literature, culture, history of Turkic people and to evaluate the contribution of the Turkic civilization to the human civilization based on indigenous sources. It leads scientific studies on Turkic history, ethnography, languages, etc., as well as prepares common textbooks/teaching materials across the Turkic world for the use of educational establishments in the Member States.

The common culture, language, and history of the Turkic states are the main pillars that underpin the cooperation under the OTS, making this regional cooperation unique in comparison to others. According to OTS’s perspectives, Turkic states should be united by common cultural richness, values, principles, and interests, learn and grow on their commonalities [2]. It was therefore symbolic that the Second Summit of the Turkic Speaking States was held under the theme of “Educational, Scientific and Cultural Cooperation” and within the Second Summit of the Turkic Council was organized the first meeting of the Ministries of Culture. Cultural cooperation was introduced in the “Action Plan of the Turkic Cooperation Organizations for 2023” and “Turkic World Vision – 2040” which include significant directions in the field of culture. The Secretary General of OTS, Kubanychbek Omuraliev, wrote in his congratulatory message that “Rising on the basis of common language, common history, and a common cultural heritage, the centuries-old fraternal bonds among the Turkic States have been solemnly institutionalized within the framework of our Organization” [3].

It becomes clear that OTS is not just the economic unity. Turkey does its best to not only cooperate with states’ leaders in the region but also to connect the Turkic peoples of Eurasia via their cultural commonalities for having a successful integration organization.

Common civilization and the Turkic world

Turkish Eurasianism and the concept of the "Turkic world" can be combined into a single ideology. Turkish governments overlooked the Caucasus and Central Asia for a long time so as not to provoke the Soviet Union. Yet, Ankara saw a good chance to establish a "Turkic world" in Eurasia immediately following the fall of the USSR. Turkey sought to forge close political, economic, and cultural ties with the Turkic countries in the region and OTS developed as a perfect platform for creating that Turkic world. The basis for this ambition is the fact that some Eurasian nations in the post-Soviet or post-Ottoman space are willing to accept Russia or Turkey as the "original Eurasian elder brother" in order to unite and solve their regional problems. So, Turkey, by presenting the commonalities of these nations as symbols of common Turkic/Eurasian civilization, proposes itself for the role of such an elder brother. Speaking about common civilization, it should be noted that back in 2015, the Foreign Ministers of the Member States agreed on the establishment of the Center of Nomadic Civilization and took an important step for the institutionalization of this organization. 

The idea of common civilization and its very important role in relations between Turkic states has remained a key point up until now. Speaking at the OTS Summit in 2022, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev noted: “It is well known that the ancient Turkic land has been connecting the East and the West for thousands of years, bringing the world civilizations closer to each other and enriching various cultures. […] in our multi-thousand-year history our Turkic family is gathering in such a full format, as a part of our renewed organization. Undoubtedly, under the motto “A new era of Turkic civilization: towards common progress and prosperity” we are entering a completely new stage of joint growth” [4].

Thus, Turkey uses the idea of a common civilization within Eurasia to create the “Turkic world,” which can connect the Turkic people of Eurasia in a solemn unity and chooses the OTS for the role of that unity.

Turkey’s special geographical position and role in Eurasia

In the pan-Turkic discourse on Eurasianism, Eurasia is viewed as a region primarily inhabited by Turkic peoples (i.e., Turkey, the North and South Caucasus, Central Asia, the Turkic regions of the Russian Federation, and northern Afghanistan). According to this discourse, Eurasia is destined to be under the rule of the Turks, as their control over the central parts of Eurasia could only lead to their dominance over Eurasia.

The most remarkable and complete geopolitical concept underlying the Pan-Turkic version of Eurasianism was developed by Ramazan Özey (a professor at Marmara University). The main elements of Özey's concept can be summarized as follows: Anatolia is the "World Fortress" (Dunya kalesi in Turkish, or Heartland in the classical sense), and the ruler-country in Anatolia, Turkey, possessing this acropolis has the ability to take control of the regions of the "Inner Circle." According to the Turkish scholar, these are the Balkans and Eurasia. Thus, Özey legitimizes Turkey's rule over the Balkans and Eurasia, considering it a natural result of the geography of the country. Then he sees Turkey's rule in Eurasia not as an end in itself but as a means to achieve a greater result—world dominance [5]. Pan-Turkist Eurasians therefore argue that Turkic peoples might implement their geopolitical ambitions in Eurasia by utilizing the potential for unification of Turkish ethnicity and culture.  

Former Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem viewed Turkey as a strategic center of Eurasia because it has shared history, a common state, and a common fate over the centuries with neighbouring countries. In relation to Eurasia, Cem noted that “by virtue of its historical and cultural attributes and its privileged European as well as Asian identity, Turkey is firmly positioned to become the strategic center of Eurasia” [6]. The continuation of this idea can be seen in the statements of former Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, who believes that Turkey is a link that connects Europe and Asia. "…The Western and Eastern ends of Eurasia must be reconnected" [7]. Therefore, Turkey is destined to play a significant role in this region and not follow a passive foreign policy.

This perspective of the organization has been highlighted in several summits and meetings of the OTS. It was even established the Geographical Council of Turkic States within OTS to foster people-to-people cooperation. The first meeting of this council was held in 2023. It is also worth mentioning that OTS attaches great importance to the preparation of the textbooks “Common Turkic History”, “Geography of the Turkic World” and “Common Turkic Literature”, and the inclusion of the mentioned books at the national curricula of the Member States. Of course, it must be noted, that the OTS is placed at the crossroads of important strategic lines between the eastern and western shores of the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea and Mediterranean basins. It is the descendant of the historic Silk Road and reaches into three major regions. So, the OTS is intended to serve as the ‘inner circle’ that unites Turkic republics.

Hence, Turkey draws its ‘inner Eurasia’ on the map and attempts to broaden its political and economic influence there through the OTS, despite the fact that it is hard to define Eurasia both geographically and geopolitically and that all definitions are vague.

The role of religion and language

In the beginning of the 2000s, Neo-Ottomanist Eurasianists stated that Turkey does not require the West or Russia, pointing instead to its Ottoman and Islamic past as an acceptable choice. According to it, Turkey has a global ummah role as it is the only state capable of establishing a new justice system in the Sunni world. Only in that case, the Sunni world can counterbalance China and Russia as well as the West.

One of the strategies proposed to strengthen the relationship among OTS’s member states is the prioritization of religious issues. All these states are part of the Muslim world, so they share the belief. The organization brings heads of religious institutions in member states together four times a year to discuss issues affecting Islam in Turkic nations. On October 20, 2022, religious leaders from the Turkic states convened a meeting in Baku and established the Council of Religious Leaders of the Turkic World. The goal of the council is to take a common stance in the fight against Islamophobia and any form of extremism in Turkic nations. In his opening address, Secretary General Baghdad Amreyev emphasized that the Islamic tradition of the Turks has brought up many prominent figures that have rendered great services to Islam, such as Imam Maturidi, Ebu Hanife, Imam Bukhari, etc [8].

Visits and meetings among religious leaders and OTS’s high representatives are part of the accepted norm. Chairman of the Caucasian Muslims' Board (CMB) Sheikhulislam Allahshukur Pashazade, for instance, during his meeting with OTS Secretary General talked about the religious and spiritual relations that are developing and deepening on the basis of historical friendship and fraternal relations between the member states of the OTS. It was stated that within this framework, new steps should be taken at the organizational level in order to further improve the existing relations between the Muslim religious leaders of the Turkic states.

OTS representatives have also participated in various summits and conferences organized by Islamic religious unities. For example, in 2019, Baghdad Amreyev participated in the International Seminar on "Islamic Rapprochement Initiative" organized by the General Secretariat of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Kazakstan. In 2022, during the second meeting of the heads of institutions in charge of Religious Affairs of the Organization of Turkic States, Bagdat Amreyev stated that the “Turkic World” has been playing a significant role in the Islamic world throughout history. The Turkic people contributed greatly to the development of the Islamic civilization. He emphasized that Islam is represented in the Eurasian area mainly by the Turkic States, namely, in the Central Asia, Caucasus and Europe [9].

Another key instrument of integration in OTS is the language.

After the collapse of the USSR, Turkey was offered as an example for other Turcophone nations. Akkan Süver, president of the Marmara Group Strategic and Social Research Foundation, pointed out that Turkey can use Eurasianism to combine Europe and Asia in three stages. According to one of the stages, spoken Turkish ought to be unified. Future generations can so benefit from shared culture and ideas [10].

Such logic is seen in the formation of the OTS. According to the document on cooperation between Turkic-speaking nations on October 3, 2009, a nation's official language must be one or more Turkic languages in order to join the organization. Professor Cengiz Tomar noted that the change of the name of the Cooperation Council of Turkic-speaking Countries into the Organization of Turkic States marks a historical and fundamental transformation. The phrases "the Turkic-speaking countries," "Peoples with Turkic language," and "Turkic-speaking peoples" were produced by Nikolay Ivanovich Ilminski, the famous Turkologist of Russia in the 19th century, occupied the great geography of Turkestan. These terms were based on the educational method to accelerate Russification activities by dividing the Turkic peoples by making Turkic dialects into different languages. With this name change, the terms "Turkic-Speaking Peoples and Countries," which are widely used in the geography of Turkestan, have been replaced by "Turkic Peoples or States." This change can be considered as a radical transformation of mentality rather than a symbolic name change [11].

The OTS supports or organizes conferences, forums, and meetings for the Ministers of Education that are dedicated to linguistic topics. In 2013, during the second meeting of the Ministers, the issues of teaching languages of member states as elective courses, starting short-term student exchange programs among secondary/high schools of member states, and making available various means, including special scholarships to encourage Bachelors, Masters and Ph.D. students of Turkic Speaking States to focus their academic studies on general Turkic studies have been deliberated. The meeting decided on adopting a common alphabet to be used for scientific purposes. Also, the Turkic Council took a concrete step in the direction of establishing the Joint Educational TV Channel. In the framework of popularising common Turkic history by means of TV, preparing animated films introducing Turkic heroes and broadcasting them on national channels of Member States were among the decisions taken at the meeting.

Undoubtedly, a common language can have a vital role in regional integration that is focused on uniting the societies of member countries. Thus, the idea of saving and spreading the Turkic language is instrumentalized and used in the OTS.

Conclusion

The reason for enthusiasm for using the ideological base in integration projects might be related to the concept that the unifying purpose includes the need for a shared notion within the union. The instrumentalized idea is a tool used by the political elite to win people's approval and justify their actions. In this way it is possible to achieve integration from below. Such version of integration was motivated by market logic, which includes the importance of common knowledge of the language, similarity of laws and culture, as well as the existence of informal people-to-people ties, so post-Soviet Eurasia can become a natural space for common organizations and unities. Nonetheless, it should be underlined that Turkey has a post-imperialist approach to regional integration and seeks to sustain and expand its political influence throughout Eurasia.

The example of the OTS demonstrates how Turkey frequently relies on the ideas of Eurasianism in its regional integration projects. However, in Turkey, there are different conceptions of Eurasianism and those concepts are at different stages of development. So, different ideas from those concepts are instrumentalized and applied in various ways depending on the context. Probably this is the reason that, despite the increasing popularity of various Eurasianist discourses in Turkey, Turkish Eurasianism has not yet reached the point of a distinct school of thought. Arousing great interest in Turkey in the 1990s and immediately seen as a possible new ideological basis for Turkey to establish and strengthen cooperative ties with the West and the East, this new ideology simply dissolved into other ideologies that were long-established and widespread in Turkey․ That's how such varieties of Eurasianism formed in Turkey as Pan-Turkist Eurasianism, Neo-Ottomanist Eurasianism, Western-oriented Eurasianism, Kemalist Eurasianism, etc.

Veronika Torosyan

Junior research fellow, Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of Armenia

 

References

[1] Ankasam, “The Organization of Turkic States Samarkand Summit: Towards A Strong and United Turkish World”, last modified November 30, 2023

[2] Amreyev Baghdad, “Towards a Stronger, Integrated and United Turkic World” last modified November 30, 2023

[3] OTS, “Congratulatory message of the Secretary General on the occasion of the October 3rd – Turkic States Cooperation Day”, last modified November 30, 2023

[4] Jakartaglobe.id, “Full Speech: Uzbek President at Organization of Turkic States Summit”, last modified November 30, 2023

[5] Safrastyan Ruben, “The Concept of Eurasia and Turkey's Regional Strategies”, World Security Network, last modified November 30, 2023

[6] Cem Ismail, Turkey in the New Century, (Mersin: 2001), 8.

[7] Daily Today’s Zaman, “Davutoğlu Calls for Eurasian Union”, last modified November 30, 2023 http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-200653-102-davutoglu-calls-for-eurasian-union.html

[8] OTS, “The Meeting of Religious Leaders of Turkic States convened in Baku”, last modified November 30, 2023

[9] OTS, “Religious leaders of the Turkic States held their second meeting in Turkistan”, last modified November 30, 2023

[10] Süver Akkan, The Future is Eurasia, (İstanbul: 2008), 7. (in Turkish)

[11] Cengiz Tomar, “From Turkic-speaking countries to Turkish states”, last modified November 30, 2023 https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/analysis-from-turkic-speaking-countries-to-turkish-states/2422657

Hamazkayin W.R.L.G. presents Meeting with Inna Sahakyan 12/7/23

Hi Everyone,

Hamazkayin Western Region Literary Group presents Meeting with Inna Sahakyan the director of Aurora’s Sunrise (no screening of the film) on Thursday, December 7, 2023, at 8pm (PST)11pm (EST), (Armenia, Friday 8am) FREE on Zoom. Contact Vania for information (818)216-9935 or email us at [email protected]
Aurora's Sunrise
Website: www.aurorassunrise.com
Facebook: www.facebook.com/auroras.sunrise 
Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/auroras.sunrise
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Auroras_Sunrise 

Join Zoom Meeting 
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As Russia Relations Sour, Armenians Prepare to Defend Themselves

Nov 28 2023

SYUNIK PROVINCE, Armenia — “When I go to bed at night, I don’t think: ‘Is my phone on charge or have I brushed my teeth?’ I think: Do I know where my parents are and is my bag packed to evacuate?”

These are the nightly thoughts of Mariam, a 22-year-old teacher living in southern Armenia’s Syunik province, 10 kilometers from the border with Azerbaijan. She’s standing in the Soviet-era sports hall of Goris State University and has just finished a class on emergency first aid. Next up: Kalashnikov shooting techniques. 

Mariam is undertaking a three-month program run by VOMA, a paramilitary group that has variously been described as a survival school and a civil defense organization — or, if you’re a member of the Azerbaijani government, a terrorist group.

No matter how it is characterized, VOMA’s stated aim is a serious one: to prepare Armenian civilians to defend their country. 

The attendees here seemingly hail from every corner of the community, from young mothers to university students. Along with first aid and weapons training, they’ll also take lessons in mountaineering, a crucial skill in the rugged alpine terrain that flanks the 900-kilometer border with Azerbaijan.  

Of the 22 VOMA branches spread across Armenia, “the location of this branch is significant because of the vulnerability of this border area,” says Vartan, its 42-year-old head instructor. 

VOMA has seen a significant uptick in attendees since Azerbaijan launched its lightning military offensive on the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh in September, taking it under in 24 hours and sending its 100,000-strong ethnic Armenian population fleeing into Armenia proper. 

Most, crammed into cars or the back of open-top trucks, passed through this very town, which over the past fortnight morphed into an international crisis center. The Red Cross, The World Food Program and a host of national aid missions, including USAID head Samantha Power, poured in to show support. Tents went up, food packages were delivered, and the international media showed up in droves. 

But for many of the residents of this region who feel abandoned by the international community, this display was too little, too late.

“Of course I’m let down,” Vartan said. “I was waiting for something that didn’t happen. But we just have to have hope.”

READ MORE

According to many here, the bulk of the blame lies squarely at the feet of Armenia’s historic ally Russia, who, despite promises to mediate the conflict and the presence of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers in the region, did little to intervene.

Russia’s inaction marks a historic shift in its regional policy. In the past, Armenia has been able to rely on Russia to moderate disputes, supply arms and play politics. Though this hasn’t always been in Armenia’s favor, they’ve generally done enough to support Yerevan. 

To this day, Russian border guards patrol Armenia’s borders with Turkey and Iran. In Armenia’s second city of Gyumri, a vast Russian military base houses an estimated 3,000 soldiers. The vast majority of Armenia’s gas supply comes from Russia. 

These entanglements make any future split from Russia all the more difficult for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. 

A VOMA first aid training. Participants' faces have been concealed due to concerns about being identified by the Azerbaijani authorities.Tom J. Bennett

Experts say the reasons for Russia’s cold shoulder are complex: the Ukraine war has left Russia internationally isolated, meaning that southern partners that provide a link to global markets — such as Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran — have become much more valuable. 

But it’s also likely that Armenia’s recent overtures to the West have angered the Kremlin. At the start of September, Yerevan carried out joint training drills with the U.S. military and sent an aid package to Ukraine personally delivered by Pashinyan’s wife Anna Hakobian. 

Armenia’s parliament strained relations further when, in a rebuke to Moscow, it voted to join the International Criminal Court — meaning that if President Vladimir Putin were to step foot on Armenian soil, Yerevan would be obliged to arrest him. 

Last week, Armenia was the only member of the Moscow-led CSTO alliance to skip a meeting of alliance leaders in Minsk, and Pashinyan said that Russia had failed to deliver weapons Yerevan had already paid for and accused Russia's media of destabilizing his country's political situation.

“Armenia cannot count at all on Russia in terms of its own security, so this ICC vote is a message to the West from the Armenian government that they are really willing to go further in distancing themselves from Russia,” Stefan Meister, head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told The Moscow Times. 

“But I think it's a very dangerous bet they are doing because I don't see that the West will really support Armenia in a way that it needs. For the West, it’s a question of how you show support. Do you send soldiers? Peacekeepers? Do you build up leverage on Azerbaijan with sanctions?”

Rifles storedTom J. Bennett

According to Meister, that latter option appears unlikely. As a result of Western sanctions on Russia, many EU countries have turned to Azerbaijan as an alternate gas supplier. It’s unlikely that any country would want to sanction a key energy provider, leaving Armenia in a difficult negotiating position. 

As geopolitical moves are played out in capitals across Eurasia, the lack of a firm international response to the Nagorno-Karabakh situation has raised fears that Azerbaijan could attempt to create a land corridor to its exclave of Nakhichevan by capturing parts of southern Armenia.

“What’s worrying from the Armenian standpoint is this convergence of interests between Azerbaijan, Russia, and Turkey to open this corridor. And in the region, the only power kind of opposing it is Iran,” Karena Avedissian, a senior analyst at the Regional Center for Democracy and Security, told The Moscow Times. 

For the VOMA trainees in Syunik province, the specter of war casts a long shadow. 

“I think we will see a growing instability of Armenia, which has lost orientation and has no one who supports it really in a serious way,” says Meister. 

The names of VOMA members have been changed to protect their identities.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/28/as-russia-relations-sour-armenians-prepare-to-defend-themselves-a82716

Azerbaijan offers Armenia to hold direct talks

 16:58, 21 November 2023

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 21, ARMENPRESS. Azerbaijan has offered Armenia to hold a meeting on the state border to continue the peace talks, according to a statement released by the Azerbaijani foreign ministry.

"Azerbaijan is ready for direct bilateral talks with Armenia to achieve the peace deal as soon as possible. We believe that the two countries should decide the future of their relations together. The two countries bear responsibility for the continuation of the peace process, including the selection of a mutually suitable venue or a decision to meet at the state border," the Azerbaijani foreign ministry said in a statement, according to the Trend news agency.  

Earlier on Tuesday, the Armenian Foreign Ministry said it conveyed to Azerbaijan new proposals on a peace treaty.

How the Hamas-Israel war impacts the South Caucasus Iran

Amwaj
Nov 24 2023
Iran/Security - Fuad Shahbazov

The war between Hamas and Israel war has triggered strong anti-Israel sentiments in the region and heightened fears of a broader conflict engulfing actors such as Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. Worried that the conflict in Gaza could escalate into a regional confrontation, the US has dispatched two aircraft carrier strike groups within range, including additional troops and military advisors.

But alongside tough rhetoric, the violence in Gaza has renewed apparent pragmatism by important regional states such as Iran and Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has openly slammed Israel's bombings of the Palestinian coastal enclave. On the other hand, Ankara has avoided issuing direct threats against Tel Aviv and, in an apparent unusual move, allegedly distanced itelf from Hamas in the aftermath of the Palestinian movement’s surprise attack on Israel last month.

Iran and its regional allies such as Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemen’s Ansarullah movement—better known as the Houthis—have adopted more hostile stances. Both Hezbollah and the Houthis have directly attacked Israel. However, Tehran itself has focused on the political track, pushing for Muslim countries to embargo Israel amid its campaign to galvanize anti-Israeli sentiment in the region. The call for an embargo has gained momentum in light of some Muslim countries’ decisions to downgrade ties with Israel—raising fears among some of Israel’s regional partners.

 

Gaza war puts pressure on Israel’s partners

The mounting criticism of Israel in the region has boosted fears among Tel Aviv’s main Muslim partners, including Azerbaijan. The conflict in Gaza is particularly relevant for Baku, as Tel Aviv’s top energy and military associate in the South Caucasus.

Some 40% of Israel's oil imports of around 300,000 barrels per day were sourced from Iraqi Kurdistan in the first quarter of 2023. That trade has been halted following Turkey's decision to stop oil flows through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline in March over a dispute with Baghdad. To fill the gap, Israel has reportedly turned to African producers and Brazil. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan meet more than half of Israel's demand for oil.

Propelled by military cooperation, the partnership between Azerbaijan and Israel gained a new level of momentum in 2020, when Azerbaijani forces heavily relied on Israeli-made weaponry to regain control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Baku continues to rely on such arms to maintain military superiority over Armenia.

Following the recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Baku-Tel Aviv partnership has morphed into a new geopolitical alliance. Important political steps have been taken, such as Azerbaijan’s opening of an embassy in Israel in March. This has raised eyebrows in neighboring Iran, particularly as an attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran earlier this year led Baku to shutter its diplomatic mission amid broader tensions.

In parallel with strengthening ties with Israel, Azerbaijan has developed strategic partnerships with leading Muslim countries—including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. While this is mainly due to Baku’s desire to pursue a balanced foreign policy strategy, Tehran has been wary of the deepening relations between its northwestern neighbor and a widening array of its regional rivals.

 

Continued cooperation despite pressure

Unlike Azerbaijan, the Christian countries in the South Caucasus—namely Armenia and Georgia—generally do not have strong ties with Muslim states. Armenia’s strong relations with Iran are an exception to this broader trend. Indeed, the ruling Georgian government has strongly criticized the Palestinian surprise attack on Israel. Tbilisi has also expressed its unwavering support for Tel Aviv—largely mirroring the pro-Israeli public sentiments in Georgia.

To avoid possible criticism from Muslim countries, Azerbaijan has denounced the harm inflicted on civilians in the Gaza Strip, underlining its full support for all relevant UN resolutions on the Israeli-Palestinian issue—including the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside a Jewish state. This stance is not new; Azerbaijan has insisted on these principles since the early 1990s. Perhaps surprisingly, this balanced approach has never been a catalyst for tension in the bilateral relationship with Israel.

Amid the fighting in Gaza and Iran’s resulting calls for an embargo on Israel, Baku has continued to maintain a close partnership with Tel Aviv—albeit while keeping a lower profile on the regional stage.

For instance, at the end of October, Azerbaijan reportedly shipped a tanker loaded with over one million barrels of crude oil to Israel's southern Red Sea port of Eilat. This was after the Ashkelon port on the Mediterranean Sea came under rocket fire from Hamas. Moreover, on Oct. 30, Israel awarded a consortium consisting of BP, NewMed Energy, and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) a license to explore offshore natural gas deposits in the Mediterranean. The move notably came shortly after the Israeli government temporarily shut down the Tamar offshore gas field amid rocket attacks launched by Hamas from Gaza.

 

Looking ahead

The authorities and state media in Azerbaijan have not highlighted the recent significant milestones in the bilateral partnership with Israel for several reasons.

Undoubtedly, Azerbaijan believes that explicit deep engagement with Israel and praise of such an approach in state media amid the ongoing war in Gaza may provoke a reaction from Iran, a staunch supporter of Hamas. Conversely, the Israeli military campaign against Hamas and the ongoing domestic political turmoil in Israel may have geopolitical ramifications, such as a revival of assertive Iranian policy in the South Caucasus.

The bigger picture is that the violence in Gaza is diverting the west’s attention. As a result, regional powers like Iran and Russia may maneuver to fill the vacuum in places like the South Caucasus. To Azerbaijan, the potential strengthening of Iranian influence is hardly a positive factor, particularly amid Baku’s efforts to ink a peace agreement with neighbouring Armenia.

In addition to the regional power dynamics, the Hamas-Israel war puts the Azerbaijani government in an uncomfortable position at home. As recently as Nov. 17, Azerbaijani security forces arrested an armed suspect near the Israeli embassy in Baku who reportedly planned an attack. As a Muslim country, Azerbaijan is expected to demonstrate more profound solidarity with Palestine. However, Baku is—as in the past—acting on the basis of realpolitik, with a focus on relations built on shared interests.

Hence, even though Iran may adopt bellicose rhetoric against Azerbaijan for maintaining strategic ties with Israel amid the Gaza war, it is unlikely that Tehran will deliberately jeopardize its relationship with Baku, which is slowly recovering after years of mounting tensions. The recent diplomatic thaw between Azerbaijan and Iran has renewed the intraregional partnership and paved the way for new forms of cooperation, such as a new transit route linking Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave via Iran.

All in all, while Azerbaijan is not likely to concede to any renewed pressure from Iran, a lengthy war in Gaza may diminish Israeli influence in the South Caucasus to some extent. In the meantime, Baku appears poised to steer clear of active diplomacy on the regional turmoil, maintaining a low profile and avoiding antagonizing Muslim countries.  

 

Pursuant to Consent Order with CFPB, National Bank to Pay $25.9 Million for Alleged Discrimination Against Armenian Americans

Nov 21 2023

On November 8, 2023, the CFPB and a national bank entered into a consent order to resolve allegations that the bank engaged in intentional discrimination against Armenian Americans who had applied for credit cards with said bank.

Specifically, the CFPB alleges that between 2016 and 2021, the bank singled out credit card applicants suspected of being of Armenian descent based on their surnames, applying more stringent criteria to such applications, “including denying them and requiring additional information or placing a block on the account.”

The CFPB further asserts that bank supervisors instructed employees not to discuss the practice in writing or on recorded phone lines and that employees were taught to lie about the reason for the adverse actions against the applicants, typically citing suspected credit abuse. According to the CFPB, these practices violated the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA)and its implementing regulation, Regulation B, and the Consumer Financial Protection Act (CFPA).

Pursuant to the consent order, the bank has agreed to pay $1.4 million to impacted consumers as well as a $25.4 million penalty.

[View source.]

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/pursuant-to-consent-order-with-cfpb-6276163/