Author: nina hovnanian

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
June 15 2012

The battle for Syria

by Robert Olson*

The US media, which is so intent on noting every attack and massacre
in the civil war raging between the al-Assad regime and its opposition
in Syria, in fact provides readers with scant information enabling
them to understand what is globally at stake in the war.

While there are many consequences of a regime change in Syria, for
Syrians as well as the other countries and people in the Middle East,
it is vital that readers also be aware of the geopolitical challenges
being mounted in the region.

Unlike the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya (I will not discuss
the so far unsuccessful ones in Bahrain, Oman and Yemen), the
revolution and civil war in Syria has vital geostrategic and
geopolitical import for the major global powers — the US, the EU and
NATO — and their major challengers Russia, China and Iran.

The first two of the latter group are determined that Syria’s fate
will not be the same as that of Tunisia, Egypt or Libya. Syria is the
most important country in the Middle East for the desired projection
of geostrategic power by Russia and China onto the eastern
Mediterranean. It allows China to demonstrate that it is a major power
not only in East Asia but in Southwest Asia. Furthermore, it allows
Beijing to demonstrate its support of Iran’s projection of power onto
Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinians. Iran also imports more weapons
systems from China than any other country in the world, providing
Beijing with a potentially strong presence in the Persian Gulf region.

Russia also wants to demonstrate that it will not easily tolerate its
marginalization by the UN, the US, the EU and NATO — a result of
NATO’s war against the Khadafy regime. Moscow also has geostrategic
interests in Syria. Russia’s large naval base at Tartus is its only
naval base in the Mediterranean and is vital for its naval and
submarine activities in the Mediterranean Sea. This naval base has
become even more vital with the discovery of gas and oil off the coast
of Israel. It is estimated that these reserves could make Israel one
of the top ten gas producing countries in the world within ten years.
More gas and oil fields have been discovered on Cyprus and Turkey has
begun drilling on its southern coast. Moscow would like a stable and
permanent base from which to monitor these emerging energy sources.

Russia also wants to send a strong message to the US and NATO that it
is extremely unhappy with NATO’s decision, driven by the US, to build
a ballistic and nuclear armed missile shield in eastern European
countries directed at Russian sites. In addition, Moscow is concerned
that the demise of the al-Assad regime will further strengthen
Turkey’s position in the eastern Mediterranean especially in Syria,
the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and the
Palestinians, making Turkey, along with Israel, the two strongest
countries in the eastern Mediterranean. Moscow is concerned that if
the above scenario occurs, Turkey would be in a better position to
challenge Russia more strongly in the Caucasus, long dominated by
Russia especially in Georgia and Azerbaijan. Ankara might potentially
support an Azerbaijani military attack on Armenia to regain
approximately 20 percent of territory that it lost to Armenia in wars
in the `90s. Azerbaijan, flush with billions of dollars in oil and gas
revenue, is primed for war against Armenia which is allied with Russia
— the traditional protector of Christians against warring Muslims.
Azerbaijan and Turkey are two Turkic countries are closely connected
by the motto, `Two nations but one people.’ Thus, in terms of global
geostrategic interests, Syria is as vital for Moscow as the other
Caucasus countries. It should also be noted that Iran, although a
country in which a Muslim clergy provides much of the leadership, is a
strong supporter of Armenia, unlike Turkey, who the West charges with
committing genocide against the Armenians in 1915.

In addition, if the al-Assad regime were to fall in the next six
months, which seems likely, and the Syrian opposition continues to
receive support from the `Friends of Syria,’ who are also the enemies
of Iran, the situation has a possibility of creating more challenges
to the US, the EU and NATO from Russia and China who also oppose
current UN, US, EU and NATO policies towards Iran.

*Robert Olson is a Middle East analyst based in Lexington, Kentucky.

Salina.com , Kansas
June 17 2012

Representatives of Republic of Armenia to visit Salina, Topeka

6/17/2012

Representatives of Republic of Armenia to visit Salina, Topeka

Representatives of the Republic of Armenia will visit Salina and
Topeka on Monday through Thursday as part of the State Partnership
Program.

On Monday and Tuesday, Maj. Gen. Ishkhan Matevosyan, head of the
combat readiness department, and Col. Gevorg Hakobyan, chief of the
noncommissioned officer development branch, Combat Readiness
Department, will meet with senior leaders of the Kansas National Guard
in Topeka to learn about the force structure of the Kansas National
Guard and some of its programs.

“Armenia is in the process of transitioning from a conscripted
military force to one that has a professional noncommissioned officer
corps,” said Lt. Col. Brent Salmans, director, Kansas National Guard
State Partnership Program.

On Wednesday and Thursday, Matevosyan and Hakobyan will travel to
Salina to observe training at the Great Plains Joint Training Center.
The Armenians will tour the facility and visit the Officer Candidate
School at the 235th Training Regiment to learn about the roles of
officers and noncommissioned officers in the tactical environment.

Kansas has been partnered with Armenia under the program since 2003.

If anything depends on me, I will do the utmost to send Oskanian into
prison – Nikol Pashinyan

tert.am
10:37 – 17.06.12

Chief editor of Haykakan Zhamanak (Armenian Times) daily Nikol
Pashinyan said he will vote `for’ if the issue on opening a criminal
against ex-foreign minister Vartan Oskanian and his arrest appears in
the agenda of the National Assembly.

In his article about the developments over the Civilitas Foundation,
Pashinyan said he will do it even being convinced that charges against
Oskanian are framed-up.

`To discuss whether the charges are framed-up or not means to discuss
Oskanian in the limits of the Constitution and legality. I refuse to
do it as when the Constitution needed Oskanian’s support he did not
care about it and the truth. He publicly declared a death sentence to
the participants of the rally of the Pan-National Movement. This
sentence was executed and I will never forgive him and I will never
forgive those who will do it. At his well-known news conference on
March 1, 2008 Oskanian pulled himself out from the Constitution’s
frames and laws and I will do everything for him to feel the burden of
a person being outside of law. He will feel what hundreds of Armenia’s
citizens felt on March 1, 2008 listening to what Oskanian was saying
about them.

If anything depends on me, I will do the utmost to send Oskanian into
prison as in that case I will have an opportunity to at least whisper
to the relatives of March 1 victims – look at least indirectly, in a
roundabout way but the justice glimmers.’

Turkey closes committee studying Armenian-Turkish relations

tert.am
14:01 – 17.06.12

Following the suspension of the settlement of the Armenian-Turkish
relations, Turkey closes the national committee studying the relations
between the two countries, Turkish Vatan writes.

The committee set up in 2003 was dealing with the assessment of the
relations between the two countries, studied Armenian history,
culture, politics, made scientific economic researches.

The scientific works of the committee have been periodically presented
to the Turkish public. Seven scholars dealing with Armenia and
Caucasus affairs were engaged in the works.

Turkish mass media describe the closing of the committee as the end to
the process of settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations.

Government v Vardan Oskanian – A Case of Political Persecution or a
Crafty Political Ploy?
Armen Arakelyan

hetq
21:33, June 16, 2012

The Civilitas Foundation has been operating in Armenia since 2008 due
to foreign financial assistance.

Surprisingly, Civilitas has only garnered the attention of the
National Security Service (NSS) after its founder, Vardan Oskanian,
became a member of the Prosperous Armenia Party (BHK) and was elected
to the parliament as an MP, adopting the stance of a serious
oppositionist.

This fact alone leads one to believe that recent criminal charges
regarding the laundering of American funds by Civilitas are primarily
politically motivated.

The NSS says that Vardan Oskanian had a hand in the money laundering
at Civilitas, but has so far only called him as a witness to the fact.
Thus, the NSS is violated the principle of `innocent until proven
guilty, in an attempt to paint Oskanian’s guilt as irrefutable from
the start. This is not by accident.

In order to turn Oskanian from a witness to an accused party, the
chief prosecutor must go to the National Assembly, proposing that he
be stripped of his immunity as an MP.

Oskanian is now a member of the BHK, the second largest faction in
parliament. Taking into account the probable assistance he’d receive
from the opposition, the prosecutor might face difficulties in getting
his immunity proposal accepted, even though it can’t be ruled out that
the case might be frozen at any time.

This is what happened to Alexander Arzumanian, another former foreign
minister similarly charged.

Oskanian isn’t that small of an individual to be bitten and swallowed,
and there’s a good possibility that those who try will find him stuck
in their throats.

Just a few days ago, U.S. Ambassador to Armenia John Heffern declared
that Civilitas is an important partner and that they are closely
following this case. This means that all the evidence presented by
Armenia’s various government agencies must be so ironclad in order
that the United States and the western partners of Civilitas are
disabused of the notion that the case is politically motivated.

Perhaps the Armenian authorities were betting on the odds that the
West would allow them to neutralize Oskanian who is regarded as the
`man’ of Robert Kocharian, given the West’s distaste for the latter,
and thus hinder Kocharian’s plans to return to politics.

Meanwhile, independent of any Oskanian-Kocharian ties, Civilitas is
essentially a proponent of western values. Civilitas has assumed such
a status that any steps directed against it could be seen as the
suppression of diversity of opinion and freedom of expression. The
authorities and the president, especially in the run-up to next year’s
election, don’t have the luxury of committing such a blunder. But it’s
too late. After having launched their assault, the authorities must
now dig themselves out of a hole that they themselves dug with their
own hands.

So what were the political motivation spurring criminal charges
against Oskanian? We must first look into Civilitas itself. The
discussions and debates that the think-tank organized during the
recent parliamentary campaign afforded a serious platform to reveal
and publicize the mechanics of election fraud implemented in the
parliamentary elections.

Besides Civilitas and CivilNet (its online TV program), no other
social or news outlet proved to be as principled or persistent in this
respect. And given that the same mechanisms used in the parliamentary
ballot will be employed in the upcoming presidential election to
reproduce power, the undesirable role of Civilitas becomes an extra
headache. Civilitas couldn’t be dealt with like the A1+ TV station,
both technically and from a legal aspect. However, by turning
Civilitas into money launderer just leaves the technical aspects to
deal with. From this angle, the process launched against Civilitas
must be seen as a process against an independent new outlet and
alternative news.

The main problem lies in the political activities of Oskanian. The
criminal case was launched immediately after the BHK declared that it
wouldn’t be joining the governing coalition and more importantly, that
it left hanging in the air the issue whether the party would be
backing Serzh Sargsyan’s 2013 presidential candidacy.

It’s hard to say to what extent Oskanian had a hand in this
declaration. Nonetheless, the authorities suspect he did play a role.
The authorities need the BHK, in order to maintain control of its
potential opposition electorate, but it doesn’t need a BHK that could
extricate itself from control at any moment. Oskanian is regarded as
the master builder of such a line and his political neutralization is
the only short-term way to return the party to its former self.

The neutralization of Oskanian also neutralizes the BHK from the
possibility of becoming an independent party.

This also is a blow against two specific individuals – BHK President
Gagik Tsarukyan and former President Robert Kocharian. They are trying
to demarcate a line between the BHK leader and the party and undermine
his authority and powerful image. By attacking Oskanian, the party’s
second figure, the authorities want to make it clear to everyone else
that they can do the same to them as well and that Tsarukyan can’t
help them.

The authorities are putting Kocharian in a very inconvenient position.
If the former president comes out in support of Oskanian it becomes
immediately clear that he is sponsoring Oskanian and that he placed
the former foreign minister into the BHK to keep tabs on him. It would
also become clear that the BHK didn’t enter the governing coalition at
the insistence of Kocharian.

The opinion is circulating that this is a game – to create an image of
Oskanian as a political victim and to turn him into a unified, but
weak, candidate of an artificial opposition; thus allowing Serzh
Sargsyan’s smooth re-election.

But was it really necessary to launch a criminal case with such
serious charges for this scenario? The repercussions, both to Oskanian
and the authorities, can be unpredictable. They can create a scandal
for the president and have the opposite effect in the run-up to next
year’s election.

It also can’t be ruled out that the authorities want to destroy
Oskanian politically and thus free themselves from any potential
authentic alternative.

Based on the balance of political forces resulting from the
parliamentary elections, the opposition has little chance of fielding
individual candidates in next year’s election. A divided opposition
just doesn’t have the funds and resources to field their own
candidates.

The only alternative would be to field a unified candidate.

HAK (Armenian National Congress) once regarded as the only force that
could field a real alternative, seems content with its share of the
political landscape. In any event, there have be no statement
emanating from HAK that Levon Ter-Petrosyan is even contemplating
running for president next year. If LTP doesn’t run, HAK will not be
able to nominate anyone else from its ranks.

Given LTP’s pre-election warming up to the BHK, it can’t be ruled out
that Armenia’s first president just might back the candidacy of
Oskanian.

If this happens and Oskanian is given the nod as a unified opposition
candidate, Serzh Sargsyan will not only be facing a strong opponent
but will also be forced to deal with an unprecedented mobilization of
the opposition.

By striking out at Oskanian now, the governing authorities want to
head off the future consolidation of the political arena.

Serzh Sargsyan has shown on numerous occasions that he prefers to play
when the opposition is weak and where he is the strongest on the
field.

REVUE DE PRESSE
La Turquie, le génocide arménien et le printemps arabe – Retranscription Radio

Le Conseil constitutionnel français a invalidé en février dernier le
projet de loi visant à pénaliser la négation du génocide arménien,
pour « Entrave à la liberté d’expression et de communication »…

Ce projet de loi controversé, défendu par le président de la
république Nicolas Sarkozy avec ferveur, a été épinglé comme
électoraliste. D’autres voix se sont prononcées sur un autre aspect
litigieux : la judiciarisation de plus en plus avancée de l’histoire,
et l’empiétement de la politique sur le champ de la vérité historique.
Cette affaire a même affectée les relations entre Paris et Ankara.

Ainsi, la colonisation, l’esclavage, l’holocauste, le génocide
arménien, d’objets scientifiques, se retrouvent désormais sujets
politiques litigieux. Il y a là sans doute le symptôme d’une
transformation profonde affectant les repères symboliques des sociétés
occidentales.

Cependant le génocide arménien a une particularité : il concerne un
pays, la Turquie, à la périphérie du monde occidental ; un pays
présenté comme un modèle de démocratie oriental ; un pays qui a
toujours, avec ténacité, nié cet événement ou au moins nié sa
responsabilité directe.

pour lire la suite cliquer sur le lien

dimanche 17 juin 2012,
Stéphane ©armenews.com

ARMENIENS DE SYRIE
1 554 Arméniens de Syrie ont demandé la nationalité arménienne depuis janvier

Ces dernières années le nombre de syriens qui demandent la nationalité
arménienne ne cesse de croitre. Depuis 2010 jusqu’à la fin du 1er
trimestre 2012 ils étaient 5 203 syriens à demander la nationalité
arménienne. Selon Armen Hagopian l’un des responsables du bureau
arménien des visas 95 % de ces syriens qui demandent la nationalité
arménienne sont d’origine arménienne. Depuis le début de l’année on
assiste à une croissance des demandes avec 1 554 syriens qui ont
déposé une demande pour devenir citoyens d’Arménie. Gaguik Yeganian
affirme que la communauté arménienne de Syrie qui traverse une période
difficile dans un pays en guerre civile, demandera davantage à émigrer
en Arménie. L’Arménie en tant que pays-refuge serait avec le Liban
l’une des premières destinations des Arméniens de Syrie selon
l’orientologue Araïk Haroutiounian. Malgré l’émigration vers
essentiellement l’Europe et les Etats Unis au cours des dernières
années, le nombre des Arméniens vivant actuellement en Syrie est
estimé à plus de 60 000 membres.

Krikor Amirzayan

dimanche 17 juin 2012,
Krikor Amirzayan ©armenews.com

ARMENIE-SOCIAL
On vit mieux en Arménie qu’en Géorgie ou en Azerbaïdjan
d’après une étude britannique

Le centre d’analyses économiques britannique News Economic Foundation
a étudié la situation de 151 pays sous l’angle de la qualité de vie de
la population en tenant compte de l’indice de l’environnement,
l’espérance de vie et du ressenti de bonheur de la population. Bonne
nouvelle : l’Arménie est classée 53e devant la Géorgie (55e) et
l’Azerbaïdjan (80e). La Turquie est 44e et la Russie 120e. Cette étude
démontre que si l’Arménie n’est pas le Paradis, le pays de Noé se
rapproche à grands pas. Mais la corruption, le chômage et l’émigration
demeurent pour l’Arménie des difficultés qui ternissent la qualité de
vie des citoyens.

Krikor Amirzayan

dimanche 17 juin 2012,
Krikor Amirzayan ©armenews.com

Global Insight
June 15, 2012

Azerbaijan Defies International Mediators’ Calls to Withdraw Snipers
from Border Areas

BYLINE: Lilit Gevorgyan

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov has dismissed calls for
Azerbaijan to withdraw snipers from its border areas from Armenia made
by Irish Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Eamon Gilmore,
whose country currently holds the prestigious chairmanship of the
Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The
organisation has been involved in the peace resolution process since
1994 when its Minsk Group co-chaired by France, Russia and US,
negotiated a ceasefires between Azerbaijan, the breakaway mainly
ethnic Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region and Armenia.
Gilmore arrived in Azerbaijan on 14 June from the Armenian capital
Yerevan. His visit comes as scores of military personnel on both sides
were killed in two incursions into the north-eastern Tavush region in
Armenia, which is far from the actual Line of Contact (LOC) between
Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan denied that the incursions
happened. On 14 June Mammadyarov was quoted as saying that Azerbaijan
“would be ready to withdraw snipers if Armenia started withdrawing
from Azerbaijan’s occupied territory… In the current circumstances,
however, that would strengthen the status quo.” Gilmore insisted that
there can only be a peaceful solution to the conflict.

Significance:Azerbaijan’s dismissal of the OSCE’s calls to de-escalate
the tense situation along the LOC and the Armenian-Azerbaijani border
is a worrying development. In the past three years the situation has
been steadily worsening. Peace is maintained thanks to military
deterrents as well as the restraining influence of Russia between the
parties as there are no international peacekeepers or even monitors.
Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh insist that international monitors be
deployed to establish the perpetrators for the escalation of violence.
Mammadyarov’s remarks of changing the status quo are in line with
President Ilham Aliyev’s increasingly frequent threats of a new war.
Azerbaijan, bolstered by its military build-up, is confident that it
would come out victorious; the Azerbaijani General Staff of Armed
Forces were quoted saying that they would need 10 days to finish the
war. The failure to secure at least token backing for the call of
withdrawal of snipers in Baku puts the Irish presidency of OSCE in a
difficult position. The Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers are
due to meet in Paris on 18 June, where the Minsk Group is expected
once again make a firm commitment to the peaceful resolution of the
conflict.

PAP leader meets Oskanyan amid tensions over Civilitas

tert.am
19:37 – 16.06.12

Photo by PanARMENIAN

The leader of the Prosperous Armenia party (PAP), Gagik Tsarukyan, has
met ex-Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanyan to discuss the National
Security Service’s money laundering charges against his foundation,
Civilitas.

According to a statement by Tsarukyan’s press office, the PAP leader
expressed willingness to do everything possible to protect the rights
and interests of his colleagues inside the party.

Oskanyan resigned from Civilitas Foundation’s board earlier this year
to join the Prosperous Armenia party which was then represented in the
coalition government. Following the May 6 parliamentary election, he
was elected to the National Assembly.

`The PAP leader highly appreciates the Civilitas Foundation’s role in
promoting democratic values and diversity of opinions,’ reads the
statement.

Tsarukyan has promised, upon necessity, to invite internationally
acclaimed lawyers to Armenia to assist Oskanyan.