“ARMENIAN SOCIETY IS STILL VERY FAR FROM EUROPE”
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Dec 18 2012
18 December 2012 – 8:25am
Interview by David Stepanyan, Yerevan, exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
The head of the analytical center “European Geopolitical Forum”
(Brussels), Marat Terterov, told VK about the prospects for European
integration and membership of the republic in the projected Eurasian
Union.
– Armenian society discusses the prospect of joining the Customs
Union and later the Eurasian Union initiated by Russia. What could
participation in such large-scale integration projects provide Yerevan?
– To assess the prospects of Armenia, I would like to see the project
of the creation of the Eurasian space in a more specific and developed
form. Now I still do not see the specific regulatory framework to
implement and realize this project. We hear only political statements.
In these circumstances, expecting clear foreign policy priorities
from Yerevan is quite premature. However, I would like to see the
rapid development of this project, as a supporter of the idea of a
slight similarity of the Soviet Union in the post-Soviet space. The
appearance of such a union can bring a lot of positive factors for
the development of post-Soviet countries, in which the collapse of
the Soviet Union caused a lot of ethnic, religious, territorial and
social problems. With the creation of such a union some of these
problems will dissolve.
– But the example of the European Union does not look very encouraging
…
– I would not say so. Belgium is also, according to some experts,
today on the verge of collapse. Bloodshed, of course, will not take
place, but the question of who will be in power in Brussels will be
quite difficult. If even small Belgium is divided into two parts, it
will not leave the European Union, the two regions will still remain
in the European space. Scotland and Catalonia are good examples of
this. If we saw strong institutions and foundations of the Eurasian
Union, we could compare the Eurasian Union to the experience of both
the integration and disintegration of the EU. It is also important
that the creation of such a union would benefit Europe itself, as
for the EU it would be much easier to work with the countries of the
former Soviet Union in such a form.
– Do you think the emerging conclusion of the Association Agreement
between the EU and Armenia is a step towards European integration of
the republic? What does Europe expect from the agreement?
– The Association Agreement is part of the overall process of the
normalization of the situation in the South Caucasus. It will deepen
the relationship between the region and Europe, given its economic
orientation. Through the agreement Europe tries to bring to the
South Caucasus more stability and rule of law, as well as discussions
between the states of the region. The prospects of implementing such
an agreement are still unclear, because there are some obstacles to
this. The European Parliament is not only a department of pluralism,
but the department of lobbying in Brussels. This means that, for the
approval of any project developed by the European Commission, it must
pass through the European Parliament, which looks quite seriously at
many sensitive issues in the post-Soviet countries. First of all, we
are talking about human rights violations in the former Soviet Union.
Therefore, the European Parliament raises to Armenia issues related to
the election and non-compliance of laws to their aspirations. These
factors affect the prospects for signing the Association Agreement;
it has not been invented by Europeans, it is a reality which to some
extent prevents the approximation of such countries as Armenia to
Europe. Therefore, this process will be quite long.
– In Armenia the ruling Republican Party and President Sargsyan are
considered to be supporters of European integration. How valid is
this opinion?
– Armenia is Russia’s strategic partner in the Caucasus, a member of
the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and there is an impression
that Armenia is under Russia’s strategic umbrella. However, some
people in NATO, dealing with the South Caucasus, sincerely believe
that Armenia has excellent relations with the alliance, a number of
partnership programs, different types of soft cooperation.
These same people believe that Armenia, unlike Georgia, stating its
desire to join the alliance, is a good example of a state which can
work with both Russia and Western hard military power. With regard to
European integration at the economic and political level, the example
of Armenia-NATO dialogue is very interesting, because for post-Soviet
Armenia it is difficult to press the “delete” button to Russia. I do
not think that such a wish in the power elite of Armenia can be seen,
given that the majority of the population in Armenia does not reside
permanently, living in Russia. The Armenian diaspora in the West
is represented by a totally different type of people, united by the
Armenian idea, the language, etc. These people do not understand the
approach of the local audience to a number of fundamental questions.
Armenia is not Europe, North America or Australia. This may sound
contradictory, but in Brussels it is easy to sell the idea that
Armenia is Europe. I have participated in many scientific and political
debates, in which western Armenians easily pushed the idea according
to which Armenia is part of Europe, the EU, and it should be in the
European family. And Russia is not part of this family. This diaspora
position, in my opinion, even repels Armenia from Europe.
Armenia is Armenia – a post-Soviet republic. This is not France and
not Western Europe.
– Do you mean that the question is not in the authorities but in
Armenian society?
– Armenian society is very far from European integration. However,
I do not believe in the sincerity of the intentions of the authorities
to integrate Armenia into Europe. Some statements about the desire of
integration are not enough. Declaring this desire is necessary to the
leadership of Armenia as a small country. The Baltic countries feel
calm in the EU, relying on the “soft” and military strength of the
Europeans much more than on the same factors in Russia. Armenia and
other post-Soviet countries should strive for political alliances,
it is a vital necessity. The exceptions are countries with an energy
sector: Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. In this vein,
the statement of the Armenian government’s intention of European
integration is normal. The system of the EU is based on law-abiding,
and voicing the intention to integrate into the system, the Armenian
authorities have made it clear that you can safely invest heavily in
a country where there is stability and obedience to the law. This
shows that Armenia is not a cowboy territory. In this context, the
government of Armenia is simply obliged from time to time to voice
such statements.
We see how Ukraine and the IMF play “cat and mouse”, because it is
unclear who is paying today for Russian gas for Ukraine – the IMF or
“Gazprombank”. In view of this situation between Kiev and Moscow and
Western donors a certain opacity is established. This became possible
as a result of the weakness of Ukraine as a state. In the case of
Armenia and the former USSR, the first obstacle of this kind is the
oligarchic system of the economy, because entry into any international
organization involves the destruction of such a system.
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