Bashar Al-Assad Is Reluctant To Surrender To The Mercy Of Opposition

BASHAR AL-ASSAD IS RELUCTANT TO SURRENDER TO THE MERCY OF OPPOSITION
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
November 1, 2011

Damascus has a great influence over the Arab world, the latter’s
future depending on to what extent Bashar al-Assad will be able to
resist the outside pressure.

Libya grew into an Islamic state, and Syria now is the only remaining
secular Muslim country in the Middle East. Lebanon, naturally, does
not count as she is too diverse and to consider her a Muslim country
would be wrong; even the president’s post is occupied by Maronites.

That said, torn by controversies and civil strife, Lebanon may one
day cease to exist. However, this is not today’s issue. For NATO
and USA the main concern is Syria, which is reluctant to welcome the
“Arab spring” that did absolutely no good to the region.

PanARMENIAN.Net – In an interview with the British newspaper “The Daily
Telegraph” Syrian president Bashar al-Assad warned western countries
against interfering in the domestic affairs of Syria and supporting
popular revolt, saying it would cause an “earthquake” and raise the
risk of a “new Afghanistan”. Assad also said his government is able
to independently cope with the crisis. Today Syria is one of the most
powerful countries in the Middle East and for her firm position she
owes to the father of the current president, Hafez Assad, who allegedly
built socialism, but actually strengthened his country with the help
of Soviet arms. At one time Syria and Egypt formed the political union
of the United Arab Republic (U.A.R.), centered in Cairo. President
of the state was Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser, but the Syrians
held many important positions, too. The U.A.R., however, existed only
for 3.5 years, as it is natural for countries that do not even have
a common border. Nevertheless, both Syria and Egypt were countries
dictating terms in the Middle East. So it was until January 2011.

With the collapse of Muammar Gaddafi the Arab world finally plunged
into chaos controlled by “Muslim brothers” for whom the world should be
under the green flag of the Prophet. The “moderate sharia” introduced
in Libya only proves this fact. First, no one forces you to wear
hijabs and burkas, or stop using neckties. It all begins later,
when monuments of civilization are being destroyed, as it was the
case with Buddha statues in Bamiyan (Afghanistan). Now the West
is eager to send Syria, a country with a well-established secular
regime, along the same route. In the words of Assad, Syria is not
Libya.”It is a different country from the geographical, demographic
and political points of view. Any similar scenario will cost dearly
to its producers. Besides, such a scenario is virtually unfeasible in
Syria,” the President said. If Syria is able to resist the pressure
of international community, it must be admitted that all attempts
directed to throwing the Middle East back into the Middle Ages will
fail. Or rather, will fail if President Assad holds out till the end.

And, apparently, he is not going to surrender to the mercy of the
opposition, having Gaddafi as an example. But, interesting as it is,
the League of Arab States (LAS), which is expected to protect Syria
from American-style democracy, has allowed itself to be led by the
international community and is trying to persuade Assad to make
concessions to the opposition. At the meeting between Arab League
Foreign Ministers and representatives of Syrian government in Doha,
the diplomats tried to defuse the tension between the government and
the opposition “against which repression is used, condemned by the
international community.” The League of Arab States urges the Syrian
government “not to fire at unarmed demonstrators”. But is this really
so? How trustworthy is the media, highlighting the “Arab Spring”
and the events in Syria in particular? Hardly is it possible that
the information disseminated by the world news agencies may contain
no frauds and distortions of the true state of affairs.

Well, and the UN Security Council, as always, acts as directed. As for
NATO, it has never been stopped by a late relevant resolution, starting
with “restoration of democracy” in Kuwait. It’s true that Syria has
no oil, but Damascus has a great influence over the Arab world, the
latter’s future depending on to what extent Bashar al-Assad will be
able to resist the outside pressure. As for Turkey, she, as always,
follows the lead of U.S. policy, despite the contrary assurances from
Prime Minister Erdogan. The mere fact that the Turkish parliament
dissolved the friendship group with Syria, says much about Turkey’s
standpoint. However, Ankara will not be allowed to take part in the
partition of the Arab pie – neither in Libya, nor in Egypt, let alone
in Syria.

Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said he totally
eliminates the Alliance’s military intervention in the situation that
has now developed in Syria.

Baku To Investigate Azeri Soldiers’ Deaths From Diseases

BAKU TO INVESTIGATE AZERI SOLDIERS’ DEATHS FROM DISEASES

PanARMENIAN.Net
November 4, 2011 – 21:30 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Criminal case has been launched over the deaths
of Azerbaijani soldiers from diseases, spokesman for Azerbaijan’s
Military Prosecutor~Rs Office said.

According to Lieutenant-General Afrahim Tahmazov, Military
Prosecutor~Rs Office had launched criminal case on the facts of deaths
on article 342.2 (negligence of service) of the Criminal Code.

Investigation is underway.

Soldiers of Azerbaijani Army ~V Azer Abbaszadeh, Royal Agayev and
Ruslan Karimov had died from diseases, APA reported.

New Highway Linking Karvachar With Armenia To Cost Over $1m

NEW HIGHWAY LINKING KARVACHAR WITH ARMENIA TO COST OVER $1M

PanARMENIAN.Net
November 5, 2011 – 14:56 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – The construction of the road linking Karvachar
(former Kelbajar) with Armenia is of strategic, political and economic
importance, head of central information department at the office of
NKR President said.

David Babayan told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter that the road will
facilitate export to Armenia.

According to him, from strategic perspective it is another highway
linking Armenia with Artsakh, once again highlighting the importance
of Karvachar for Armenia.

The construction project envisages over USD 1 mln to be spent. The
new road will be 150 km shorter than the present one through Berdzor
(former Lachin).

Armenian Women’s Team Defeats Croatia In European Chess Championship

ARMENIAN WOMEN’S TEAM DEFEATS CROATIA IN EUROPEAN CHESS CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND 2

PanARMENIAN.Net
November 5, 2011 – 10:30 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Armenian women’s team defeated Croatia 2,5:1,5 in
the 2nd round of the European Chess Championship in Porto Carras.

GM Elina Danielian won her game, while Lilit Lazarian, Maria Kirsova
and Lilit Galoyan played in a draw to take the 9th position with 4.5
points. Serbians top the standings with 7.5 points.

In the next round, Armenia will face Germany.

Men’s team lost the 2nd round and dropped to the 19th place with
4.5 points.

Congressmen Urge Washington To Cease Weapons Deal With Turkey

CONGRESSMEN URGE WASHINGTON TO CEASE WEAPONS DEAL WITH TURKEY

Tert.am
05.11.11

Several US lawmakers have called upon the Congress to cease the arms
sale to Turkey.

According to the Turkish media, Congressmen Howard Berman, Nita Lowey,
Eliot Angel, Brad Sherman, Steve Israel, Shelley Berkley and Adam
Schiff have proposed a resolution, asking President Barack Obama to
stop the $11 million worth weapons deal with the country.

As an argument to justify their proposal, they pointed out to Turkey’s
negative stance on Israel, Armenia and Cyprus, countries which are
considered the allies of the United States.

The congressmen expressed concerns over the country’s continuing
threats to Israel, its blockade policy against Armenia, and the
occupation of Cyprus. They asked Washington to give more attention
to those problems instead of selling weapons to Turkey.

Stars Sing In Los Angeles To Remind World About Genocide

STARS SING IN LOS ANGELES TO REMIND WORLD ABOUT GENOCIDE

Tert.am
05.11.11

A concert series aimed to condemn genocides and promote peace kicked
off in Los Angeles’ Gibson hall on November 1.

Organized ahead of the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide,
“Never Again” brought together world-renowned musicians who joined
their efforts to remind the world about the Armenian massacres,
the Armenian TV channel Shant reported earlier today.

Singers Eric Benet, Michael Stone and Stevie Wonder highlighted the
importance of the event, saying that the Turkish perpetrated crime
against humanity needs a proper assessment, with music playing a big
role in raising humanity’s concern over such atrocities.

Parajanov Exhibition In Moncton As Part Of The Fourth Annual Armenia

PARAJANOV EXHIBITION IN MONCTON AS PART OF THE FOURTH ANNUAL ARMENIAN FESTIVAL

ARMRADIO.AM
05.11.2011 14:10

As a part of the fourth annual Armenian Festival in the Moncton
(the Hub City), Galerie d’art Louise et Reuben-Cohen is exhibiting
Parajanov: Imagined Reality. On loan from the Parajanov Museum in
Yerevan, the exhibit features more than 40 of Parajanov’s collages and
his classic film The Colour of Pomegranates on loop in the gallery,
the Telegraph-Journal informs.

During his lifetime, the celebrated Armenian film director spent
years in Soviet prison and labour camps for his art. Both in cinema
and visual art, Parajanov defied limitation. More than 20 years after
his death, his legacy even continues to connect more than 8,000 km
away in Moncton.

This weekend, the gallery is also screening four of Parajanov’s
films with English subtitles. During Festival international du cinema
francophone en Acadie (Nov. 17-26) the gallery will screen the movies
again with French subtitles.

“The Parajanov Museum is the most eccentric museum in the world,”
festival president and artistic director Sylvia Kasparian says. “He’s
unique in his genre. That’s why I chose to present him, because I
wanted this festival to show marginal and different artists,” she said.

A child of the Diaspora, Kasparian founded the festival to mark the
90th anniversary of the Armenian genocide in 2005.

“Most of it is making people know roots of humanity, because Armenia
has 3,000 years of humanity,” she says. “This is the ancient world. I
think people like to see what humanity is. It’s colourful. It’s
different.”

Sarkozy Veut Disputer A Hollande Le Vote Armenien

SARKOZY VEUT DISPUTER A HOLLANDE LE VOTE ARMENIEN
Tefy Andriamanana

Marianne2.fr

3 nov 2011
France

Le candidat socialiste et le president sortant espèrent seduire les
electeurs d’origine armenienne en defendant officiellement ou non
une loi memorielle sur le genocide armenien. Une position qui ne fait
pas l’unanimite, dans leurs camps respectifs.

Lors du dernier petit-dejeuner de la majorite, le chef de l’Etat a
de nouveau defendu le principe d’une loi punissant la negation du
genocide armenien, comme il l’avait fait lors de son deplacement en
Armenie debut octobre. Une loi reconnaissant le genocide en lui-meme
existe deja depuis 2001. Et une propostion de loi PS punissant le
negationisme attend d’etre discutee au Senat. Le gouvernement s’est
jusque la toujours oppose a son adoption estimant que l’arsenal
legislatif existant etait suffisant. De plus, comme l’a revele
Marianne, les barons UMP invites par Sarkozy, ont note que cette
initiative risquait de nuire aux relations avec la Turquie, grand
debouche pour les entreprises francaise, et meme avec l’Allemagne où
reside une importante communaute turque. De toute facon, les cadres
de la majorite pensent que toute tentative de seduction des Armeniens
de France serait inutile vu que c’est Francois Hollande qui rassemble
le plus cet electorat. Ils n’ont pas les memes idees mais Francois
Hollande et Nicolas Sarkozy espèrent tous les deux rassembler les
suffrages des electeurs d’origine armenienne. On estime a 500 000
le nombre de personnes d’origine armenienne en France, un chiffre a
prendre a la legère puisqu’il faut prendre en compte, les binationaux,
les personnes de seule nationalite armenienne (et donc non electeurs),
les descendants d’armeniens… Mais, au final, on a la une veritable
clientèle electorale.

Une chose que Nicolas Sarkozy, communautariste peu discret, sait
parfaitement. Mais les Accoyer et Bockel qui ont manifeste leurs
reticences devant le President sur l’interet d’une nouvelle loi
memorielle savent bien que Sarkozy n’est pas seul sur le creneau
armenien. S’il s’affiche moins que son adversaire sur la question
communautaire, Francois Hollande s’est attache depuis de nombreuses
annees a maintenir de bonnes relations avec les Armeniens de France.

Durant la primaire, la FRA Dachnaktsoutioun, (gauche), a d’ailleurs,
via sa branche francaise, donne son soutien a l’adversaire de Martine
Aubry. Pourtant, les autres socialistes europeens sont restes
neutres dans ce scrutin. Visiblement, ce soutien tient donc plus
du clientelisme envers les Armeniens de France que des relations
normales que peut entretenir le PS avec ses homologues en Europe et
dans le monde.

Communautarisme ?

Fin septembre, en pleine campagne, Francois Hollande s’etait d’ailleurs
rendu a Alfortville, où reside une importante communaute armenienne,
pour un meeting de soutien organise par la FRA Dachnaktsoutioun. Le
candidat du PS a alors promis que le Senat, desormais a gauche,
votera la loi punissant la negation du genocide armenien, une loi
qu’il promeut depuis plus de 5 ans. La FRA Dachnaktsoutioun avait
egalement constate ” avec satisfaction, que les fidèles allies de la
cause armenienne soutiennent, pour la plupart, Francois Hollande “.

Mais le vote de la loi contre le negationisme sera un peu difficile au
vu du calendrier parlementaire serre. En effet, le PS compte profiter
de sa victoire au Senat pour faire passer de nombreux textes comme
sur le droit de vote des etrangers qui sera discute a partir du 8
decembre. ” Il y a d’autres priorites, explique Francois Rebsamen,
chef des senateurs PS et proche de Hollande, Ce ne sera pas possible
avant janvier, c’est une question de calendrier “. Les amis armeniens
de Hollande attendront donc un peu.

Les liens entre Hollande et le parti Dachnak ne datent pas d’hier. En
2004, lors des europeennes, le PS de Hollande avait signe un texte
commun avec le parti armenien demandant notamment que la reconnaissance
du genocide armenien par la Turquie soit la condition sine qua none
de son adhesion a l’UE. En septembre 2007, Hollande s’etait rendu en
Armenie a la tete d’une delegation socialiste comprenant notamment
Rene Rouquet… maire d’Alfortville et defenseur de la loi memorielle
sur le genocide armenien. Ce deplacement diplomatique accompagne d’un
elu local apprecie chez les Armeniens de France avait aussi et meme
surtout pour but d’adresser un signe a la diaspora. C’est le meme
prinicipe lorsque Sarkozy se rend en Armenie accompagne d’Aznavour
et Devedjian, deux figures de la communaute armenienne.

La clientèle de Hollande et Sarkozy En mars 2009, a Paris, lors d’un
” dîner de remerciement ” a Francois Hollande après son depart de la
tete du PS, Mourad Papazian, representant du parti Dachnak en Europe
de l’Ouest, avait dit : ” Nous avons eu avec Francois Hollande onze
annees de franche et de fructueuse collaboration qui ont permis a la
cause armenienne d’enregistrer des succès importants en France “.

Mais est-ce vraiment le rôle d’un candidat a la presidentielle de
defendre la cause d’une communaute particulière ? Pour Francois
Rebsamen, les positions de Hollande ne relèvent pas du clientelisme
communautaire mais de la diplomatie. Le senateur rappelle que la
reconnaissance du genocide armenien est ” une condition pour que
la Turquie entre dans l’Europe “. Pour lui, defendre un tel texte,
” c’est une manière de dire a la Turquie de travailler sur elle-meme “.

Sur ce point, la Turquie a peu apprecie les prises de position de
Hollande pendant la primaire. L’ambassadeur turc a meme ecrit au
candidat socialiste pour le prevenir que l’adoption d’une nouvelle
loi memorielle nuira aux relations entre Paris et Ankara.

Peu importe, Hollande tient a menager ses supporters. Et ces derniers
ne sont pas rancuniers. Deux soutiens de Hollande avaient deja
fait polemique dans la communaute. En 2008, Pierre Moscovici, qui a
dirige sa campagne, avait declare au sujet des positions de Patrick
Devedjian sur la Turquie : ” Il a un comportement, une agressivite qui
depasse les bornes (…) Pourquoi? Parce qu’il est Armenien, qu’il est
attache a la reconnaissance du genocide armenien “. En 2009, une video
montrant Jack Lang parlant du ” entre guillemets, genocide armenien
” avait egalement choque. Malgre tout, Hollande a garde le soutien
des elites armeniennes et a defendu avec ferveur leurs doleances
sur la reconnaissance du genocide. Preuve qu’en jouant les bons VRP,
on peut faire oublier quelques petites phrases de son camp.

http://www.marianne2.fr/Sarkozy-veut-disputer-a-Hollande-le-vote-armenien_a211998.html

BAKU: Meeting With Armenians In Khankandi Possible Once Security Is

MEETING WITH ARMENIANS IN KHANKANDI POSSIBLE ONCE SECURITY IS ENSURED – MP

news.az
Nov 3 2011
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani and Armenian communities of Karabakh may meet in Khankandi
once security is provided.

The statement came from head of the human rights committee of the
Azerbaijani parliament Rabiyyat Aslanova.

Vice-Speaker of the Azerbaijani parliament Bahar Muradova recently
came up with an initiative to organize a meeting between Azerbaijani
and Armenian communities of Karabakh.

In its turn, the break-away Karabakh responded that the meeting my
take place in Khankandi.

Saying that she was not against Khankandi as a venue for the meeting,
Aslanova recalled that first and foremost, Khankandi is a land of
Azerbaijan.

“We should not worry that we cannot go to Khankandi. This is my
motherland and I have a right to go there. There is a need for this
meeting. In any case, whatever the name is, there is a great need
for meeting between the two communities. We should also listen to
the opposite side. I mean Armenians living in Karabakh, land of
Azerbaijan. They still hold Azerbaijani citizenship. Today some
Armenians even dream of a dual citizenship.”

Aslanova also commented on the fact that Armenians carrying passports
issued by Azerbaijan commit misdeeds in various countries across the
world thus shaping a bad image for Azerbaijan.

‘They are well aware of the final result and therefore do not
renounce Azerbaijani citizenship. They know very well that the
Azerbaijani citizenship will be vital for them once the conflict is
settled peacefully. That is why they still hold the passports issued
in Soviet times,’ the MP added.

It should be made clear for the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh
that Azerbaijan focuses on post-war reconstruction work, but not
future prospects of a war, the MP noted.

“In this context, some forces should not accuse Azerbaijan of military
rhetoric and being aggressive because we assume the great mission of
reconstruction and rapprochement. We think about tomorrow and believe
that the issue will be solved peacefully. We are ready to reconstruct
and conduct mine clearance in these areas and for many other similar
actions. The community should know this.”

Gun.Az Subject: BAKU: Meeting With Armenians In Khankandi Possible
Once Security Is Ensured – MP

Meeting with Armenians in Khankandi possible once security is ensured –
MP Thu 03 November 2011 13:24 GMT | 9:24 Local Time

Azerbaijani and Armenian communities of Karabakh may meet in Khankandi
once security is provided.

The statement came from head of the human rights committee of the
Azerbaijani parliament Rabiyyat Aslanova.

Vice-Speaker of the Azerbaijani parliament Bahar Muradova recently
came up with an initiative to organize a meeting between Azerbaijani
and Armenian communities of Karabakh.

In its turn, the break-away Karabakh responded that the meeting my
take place in Khankandi.

Saying that she was not against Khankandi as a venue for the meeting,
Aslanova recalled that first and foremost, Khankandi is a land of
Azerbaijan.

“We should not worry that we cannot go to Khankandi. This is my
motherland and I have a right to go there. There is a need for this
meeting. In any case, whatever the name is, there is a great need
for meeting between the two communities. We should also listen to
the opposite side. I mean Armenians living in Karabakh, land of
Azerbaijan. They still hold Azerbaijani citizenship. Today some
Armenians even dream of a dual citizenship.”

Aslanova also commented on the fact that Armenians carrying passports
issued by Azerbaijan commit misdeeds in various countries across the
world thus shaping a bad image for Azerbaijan.

‘They are well aware of the final result and therefore do not
renounce Azerbaijani citizenship. They know very well that the
Azerbaijani citizenship will be vital for them once the conflict is
settled peacefully. That is why they still hold the passports issued
in Soviet times,’ the MP added.

It should be made clear for the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh
that Azerbaijan focuses on post-war reconstruction work, but not
future prospects of a war, the MP noted.

“In this context, some forces should not accuse Azerbaijan of military
rhetoric and being aggressive because we assume the great mission of
reconstruction and rapprochement. We think about tomorrow and believe
that the issue will be solved peacefully. We are ready to reconstruct
and conduct mine clearance in these areas and for many other similar
actions. The community should know this.”

BAKU: Military Doctrine Of The Republic Of Turkey – Analyse

MILITARY DOCTRINE OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY – ANALYSE

Milaz.info

Nov 3 2011
Azerbaijan

South Caucasus and Caspian Sea region being a sensitive and
complicated area from the geo-political, geo-strategic, geo-economic
and geo-cultural point of view, open for foreign influences in a great
extent. Military doctrines of regional countries and their defense
and military policies implemented based on these doctrines also play
significant role in establishment and development of regional peace
and stability, as well as on the contrary in violation of stability,
in creation of tension and confrontations, crisis and conflicts in
the whole region.

Military doctrine being an officially announced system of views in
state’s military security field. determines political-military,
political-strategic and political-economic basis of its military
security, including the directions of combat preparation of state
and armed force, methods and forms of its implementation.

The provisions of military doctrine of every state may alter depending
on thorough change of military security environment, military-political
situation, as well as on internal political development and radical
changes regarding strategic choice. In this regard, revision and
update of military doctrine from time to time is expectable. In order
to evaluate influence of military doctrinal views on establishment
of peace and stability, development of freedom and democracy, people
welfare integration in South Caucasus, first of all military doctrines’
of the region countries (Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan), as well as
military doctrines of Russia, Iran and Turkey, which have traditional
interests in the region should be studies and evaluated in this regard.

The Center of Military Analyses and Research has prepared the document
“Military doctrines of regional countries – stability or the threat
of confrontation?” by support Open Society Institute – Assistance
Foundation. Today we publish the Military Doctrine of the Republic
of Turkey.

Military Doctrine of the Republic of Turkey

Official views system in the field of military security of Turkish
Republic (TR) finds its reflection in the “Political document about
National Security” (Milli guvE~Ynlik siyasE~Yt bölgusu- MGSB). TR
MGSB came into force after its signing by the President in March, 2006.

According to MGSB, TR military-doctrinal views named “defense policy”
consists of mainly in two parts:

– national security strategy (clarifies social-political side of
military doctrine) and

– consists of national military strategy (regulates military-technical
side of military doctrine).

TR military doctrine has a defensive character.

The main provisions of TR defensive policy are the followings:

– TR independence, territorial integrity and guarantee of defense of
Republic form structure of the society;

– to prevent crisis and conflicts, to use all opportunities for
prevention of their creation, including the implementation of all
measures in order to decrease international tension;

– to take active part in collective security system, to fulfill all
obligations taken by TR.

NATO takes the first place in international guarantee of TR military
security. In general, the membership to NATO is the basis of TR
military doctrine. Active participation of the country in NATO
implies collective guarantee of TR security, getting of additional
opportunities for implementation of foreign and military policy by the
support of allies. In this regard, national armed forces take active
part in NATO peacekeeping operations, NATO-Turkey military trainings.

The last periods, stirring up defense policy of Turkey and in this
regard, order of showing initiative to Armed Forces and carrying out
the intensive trainings in the region may be considered one of the
positive steps implemented in the direction of peace and stability.

According to the Military Doctrine, TR defense policy, national
security strategy is based on 3 conceptual idea. These are:

– without using forces and Armed Forces guarantee of national security,
protect potential able to prevent threat and dangers (“deterrence
strategy”), to keep Armed Forces in high combat preparation level
and to provide thoroughly;

– to manage crisis (political, military, humanitarian and so on),
to take military and non-military measures in advance, to prevent
expected threat and dangers (to give preference in using of mainly
non-military ways and methods in the settlement of these issues);

– and to create the security environment on perimeter, along the
border, which will guarantee peace with neighbor countries (with
setting existed crisis, preventing expected crisis).

The first and second provisions of TR military doctrinal views
(“deterrence strategy” and preventive defense policy) are strategic
conceptual views adopted by the U.S and NATO.

The third main provision of defense strategy came from AK party
government’s “zero problem” policy with neighbors.

As it can be seen, the target of democratic Turkey’s military-political
leadership is creation “peace and security zone” around its
country. This also serves to creation of efficient conditions for
regional peace and stability, reinforcement of security, as well
as development of and expansion of democracy in South-East Europe,
Central Asia and S. Caucasus.

TR national military strategy, military-technical side of military
doctrine is based on the following four main conceptual ideas:

– high combat preparation of Armed Forces and its keeping in combat
power, comprehensive technical supply;

– to go to the decisive actions in order to use ordinary arms, to
carry out operations;

– to be able to carry out limited scale military operations; – to
carry out “something other, not only war” operations (or “something
other than war” operations), in other words, to avoid the war .

Analyze of existed global and regional military-political situations
and its expected development prospects, appearing of new tendencies and
development risk, changing of character of threat and dangers brought
to determination of TR’s role and place and principle alterations in
military doctrine.

According to MGCB at present Turkish Armed Forces have been prepared
on condition not “two of the five”, but “one of the five” war,
that is, high intensity war with one foreign enemy or conflict,
including readiness to large-scaled combat actions with internal
separatist groups.

Turkey, taking into account, short and average term development
prospects until today and 2015-2020 adjusted its military-doctrinal
views to new strategic conditions. TR MD stipulates that Armed Forces
can participate in two wars, both within the structures of united arms
(NATO) and independently can take part in local war.

TR military doctrine fundamentally differs from other regional
states by giving preference to internal threats in evaluation of
the threats to military security. In MGSB of TR “traditionally”
radical Islamists, kurds, separatists and ultra left movements are
included into the supposed internal threats. These threats along with
considering priority near foreign threats, are still continue to be
potential security.

Giving preference to internal threats relates to, on the one hand
with providing of TR international security in high level, membership
to NATO and completing of cold war, on the other hand, with its
having high combat ability and powerful army with “deterrence”
capability. In any case, absence of threats from regional countries
among the foreign threats in the military doctrine may assessed
positive from the viewpoint of regional peace and security, stability.

It is the first time that Turkey’s not seeing of any neighbor
country as a source of threat from the military view in short and
long prospects principally is noted in MGSB of Turkey. However,
considering some neighbor countries situating in TR perimeter, it is
noted in MGSB that “some countries also may be the source of danger
and challenge to separate threats. In order to prevent them, firstly,
the political-diplomatic methods will be used by the support of army
potential”. Among the such threats and challenges to threats, the
confrontation in Greece on Cyprus problem, air, land borders with it,
problems of The Aegean Sea basin are also noted in the document.

Anxieties on efforts for the development of Iranian missile and
nuclear program are particularly noted in MGSB.

Probability of Dagliq Qarabag conflict’s (which is also important for
regional peace and stability) again intensification’s taking place
in MGSB of TR should be assessed positive.

TR gives significance to the development of relations in international
guarantee of military security with NATO as well as the U.S. and EU,
including member countries.

Relations with the U.S, which is the leader of global power and NATO
are considered among the preferences of TR foreign policy, as well as
the first importance of its military security policy. Development of
TR-U.S relations, especially coordination of their S. Caucasus policies
is one of the factors having a positive effect on regional stability.

Support of TR together with the U.S. to independency, territorial
integrity and sovereignty of S. Caucasus states, their joint
efforts to peaceful solution of regional conflicts, development of
democracy and security in the region, these states’ integration to
Europe and Euro-Atlantic institutions, Georgian membership to NATO,
strengthening of military security of Azerbaijan and Georgia and
implementation of regional projects of strategic importance, decrease
of RF military participation in the region and removing of regional
military-political disbalance serve to establishment of regional
stability and reinforcement of security.

Pursuing of these two allies’ different lines in some issues in
regional policy (for instance, the Georgian crisis in 2008, nuclear
program of Iran, Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict, normalization of
TR-Armenia relations and other issues) first of all serves to the
interests of forces, which play destructive role in the region.

TR and U.S’ (which are member of NATO, at the same time, are
democratic and ally states) formation of common views, removing of
existed difference of opinions and carrying out coordinated policy,
would have a positive effect on settlement of conflicts, inter-regional
integration, regional stability, security and development of democracy,
as a whole, positive development of the region.

Membership to European Union and its participation in military security
establishments are also one of the main priorities of Turkish foreign
and security policy.

South Caucasus. Azerbaijan takes special place in foreign policy of
Turkey and relations between two fraternal states, which are natural
allies have a strategic character. On the date of August 16, 2010 by
the treaty “about strategic partnership and mutual assistance between
the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Turkey” concluded in
Baku, the relations were formalized.

According to the 2-nd article of this treaty, which also expresses
the sides’ adhering to Qars Treaty dated on October 13, 1921:
“In case of one of the sides’ subjecting to armed attack by third
state or a group of states, the Sides came to the agreement about
rendering mutual assistance to each other with aim of implementing
all necessary measures within the frames of existed opportunities,
including applying of all military power and opportunities in order to
implement their individual or collective self-defense right recognized
by the article 51 of UN Charter. The form and volume of assistance
will be agreed between the Sides without dating”.

As it can be seen, TR-Azerbaijan official relations, which have
a strategic character were very approached to military-political
allies relations.

Ankara thoroughly supports Georgian independency, sovereignty and
territorial integrity, intends to achieve mediation in Abkhazia
and South Ossetia negotiations. TR, which have a close relations
with Georgia in military and military-technical field, attempts to
strengthening of its armed forces. TR also supports Georgian membership
to NATO.

TR’s development of military security relations with Azerbaijan and
Georgia, as a whole directed to normalization of military-political
disbalance, establishment of regional peace and stability in S.
Caucasus.

Turkey also tries to find the ways of normalization of relations with
Armenia, which does not intend to reject of “genocide” and territorial
claims, which is in war situation with Azerbaijan.

Based on real policy and taking into account complicated and sensitive
military-political situation in the region, TR gives a preference to
development of diversified partnership relations with Russia as well.

Joint interests and common problems for TR and Russian (Black Sea
and problems around it, especially undesirability of existence of
Military Naval Forces here by the countries around Black Sea, Iraq,
Syria, Near East issues and issues regarding Iranian nuclear program)
also create positive conditions for development of bilateral relations.

Development of bilateral relations between Turkey and Russia, which
came to great agreements in energy, as well as nuclear energy field,
may have a positive effect on development of region by creating
favorable conditions for joint cooperation in South Caucasus.

The Center of Military Analyses and Research

http://milaz.info/en/news.php?id=6662