AZERBAIJAN-ARMENIA: MILITARY BALANCE AND PROSPECTS OF WAR
November 21, 2011
WASHINGTON DC. November 21, 2011: Concerns over possible war in
Nagorno-Karabakh are rising in Washington DC, as both Armenia and
Azerbaijan have, reportedly, intensified their arms race over the
past years.
As several military sources told Turan’s Washington, DC correspondent,
both Baku and Yerevan kept secret information on their military
equipment from their western partners, until recent events that
drastically changed their passive policy.
“In 2010, Russia renewed its leasing agreement with Armenia for
the military base in Gumri for next 40 years. Azerbaijan signed
the military pact with Turkey immediately after it. In response,
Armenia publicly admitted to its sophistication of air defense systems
protecting the skies of Yerevan”, the source reminds.
In recent military photos, Armenia has showed its SCUD ballistic
missiles for the first time. This was in retaliation to Azerbaijan’s
latest purchase of the S-300PMU-2, which was immediately demonstrated
in a military parade.
“The question here is whether these two nations are slowly moving
towards the tides of war?” asks a Pentagon source. In its most recent
research, the US-based open-source military analysis IMINT & Analysis,
based on the Google Earth satellite imagery of air defense systems,
described Armenia’s SCUD missiles as “a danger to Baku’s oil fields”.
“Open sources confirm a huge disparity in military acquisition and
these are best confirmed with military photos and military parades
from both nations”, notes the paper.
In terms of tank forces, the source says, Azerbaijan has 300-400 tanks
and Armenia has 160 although this figure does not include the tanks
from the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which can be roughly estimated
at 300 as well, so, in terms of amour both seem equally matched.
Armenia can have a slight advantage if 20 T-80s are considered a
superior tank. Azerbaijan has mentioned negotiations of T-84 tanks from
Ukraine and this can again tip the balance. The figures continue in
armored personal carriers, light tanks and armored infantry fighting
vehicles in which Azerbaijan has outnumbered Armenia.
Azerbaijan’s military advantage is not only the sheer size of its
army; it is the acquisition of artillery and modern MLRSs. They have
purchased the Smerch MLRS from Russia, one of the most powerful in
its class, which can devastate the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.
In terms of artillery, Azerbaijan has acquired approximately 180 D-
30 and 34 D-20; Armenia, on the other hand, has 90 D-20 and 34 D-30,
a sizable gap. Azerbaijan’s air force also has the opportunity to
inflict damage to Nagorno-Karabakh due to the enclave’s current legacy
SAM systems in place.
Although Azerbaijan’s air force lacks air to ground avionics or any
true potential guided munitions, its UAV acquisition can be a decoy
for the single target capability of legacy systems. Their vast fleet
of Mig-29s (FULCRUM), up to 30, according to some sources, along with 8
Su-24MRs (FENCER-E) and 30 Su-25s (FROGFOOT) is enough for a heightened
war if necessary. The UAVs can also provide real time information for
ground troops, which in modern air warfare can be a major advantage.
Armenia proved some resistance with their air defense systems in the
enclave with their takedown of an Azeri Hermes 450 UAV. UAV service
ceiling heights are approx 5km and their slow speed makes them an easy
target though it proves Armenia’s situational awareness. Armenia’s air
force consist of 15 Su-25s for ground attack and with Azerbaijan’s
robust overlapping air defense on the border of Nagorno-Karabakh,
their effort will be minimal deeper into hostile territory.
“Armenia’s latest military parade provided valuable information in
terms of military inventory. It also provided the world an insight
into Armenia’s growing confidence in recent years. Alongside the
S-300PS (SA-10B GRUMBLE), adding additional 6-target capability
for Yerevan as well as the mobility to deploy to Nagorno-Karabakh,
it also demonstrated the never seen before Tochka (SS-21 SCARAB)
SRBMs”, writes the source.
Azerbaijan’s military parade with its continued rhetoric is a stark
reminder of Azerbaijan’s attitude to a renewed conflict. The parade
went all out in UAV, MLRSs, artillery and aerobatic shows.
“What advantage does Armenia have? With no resources to provide
the major powers, no pipelines or pipeline routes, no geopolitical
advantage, Armenia on paper has anything in terms of geopolitical
power or weapons. Armenia’s air defense will be robust in any
limited attack from any air force though the issue at hand is
Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh’s only offer to resistance is
its fortified trench system at the moment and its confidence from
the victory in the 90s.”, says the paper, adding, for Azerbaijan,
their superiority is sheer size and a well-organized and coordinated
attack can yield results though occupation will be another matter.
Azerbaijan’s loss in the 90s is part of the national psyche and a
rematch is something they yearn for.
“Analysts feel that Armenia might possibly give away a few territories
in a renewed conflict to shorten the war and keep Azerbaijan satisfied
with their victory, as no re- settlement will ever take place for
Azerbaijan as long as Armenian’s villagers live in Nagorno-Karabakh”,
notesIMINT & Analysis, adding,
“this can be a major issue for the peace process even if Armenia agrees
to hand over territory in any peace deal. The major game played by
Russia was the selling of the S300PMU-2, totally negating Armenia’s
SCUD missiles”.
The source is also curious: Does Russia want to protect the oil
fields? Are they providing Azerbaijan permission to start a war?
Many questions need to be asked in order to understand this situation
and to understand the possibilities of renewing the conflict. This
intensity has only been felt recently as deepening tides of war have
hit the surface of both nations (Turan).
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