PANDORA’S BOX WAS OPENED IN THE BALKANS
by Oleg Yelensky
DEFENSE and SECURITY
March 3, 2008 Monday
Russia
The solving of many territorial disputes may follow a tested path of
slaughter and genocide
THE EXAMPLE OF KOSOVO MAY BLOW UP THE PEACE ON THE TERRITORY OF RUSSIA
AND IN SOME NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES; The independence of Kosovo was
recognized by the US and some countries of the European Union.
Moscow is against these steps taken with breaches of the existing
basic norms of international relations confirmed by UN Regulations.
Moreover so, the "Kosovo precedent" directly influences some other
problems concerning Russia from the standpoint of the provision of its
security. For example, these are the well-known frozen conflicts in
the Caucasus, the deployment of objects of the third positional area
of the antimissile defense of the US in the Czech Republic and Poland,
as well as the prospect of the entrance of Georgia and Ukraine into
NATO in the near future.
The independence of Kosovo was recognized by the US and some countries
of the European Union. Moscow is against these steps taken with
breaches of the existing basic norms of international relations
confirmed by UN Regulations. Moreover so, the "Kosovo precedent"
directly influences some other problems concerning Russia from the
standpoint of the provision of its security. For example, these are
the well-known frozen conflicts in the Caucasus, the deployment of
objects of the third positional area of the antimissile defense of
the US in the Czech Republic and Poland, as well as the prospect of
the entrance of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO in the near future.
Why Kosovo?
There are about 200 territories in the world now that may
potentially follow the experience of Kosovo. However, nobody has
had a thought about presenting sovereignty to them before. Now,
as Russia’s plenipotentiary to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, puts it, "The
separatist-minded territories will act according to the principle,
"Having said "A" in Kosovo we will say "B" in South Ossetia, Abkhazia,
Trans-Dniester Republic, Corsica, etc."
Incidentally, Abkhazia and South Ossetia have already announced that
they are going to turn to Russia, CIS countries and the UN with a
request to recognize their independence.
The comparison of various authoritative opinions shows that the expert
community does not have any convincing answer to the question, "Why
it is Kosovo?" Major General Pavel Zolotarev, Deputy Director of the
Institute of the US and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
tried to explain the situation in the most understandable way.
– Why do the US and the European Union advocate granting the status
of an independent state to Kosovo?
– There is probably no answer to this question. Of course, it is
possible to seek and to try to single out some local motives that
Washington has. For instance, it is possible to say that a powerful
Islamic alliance is being formed in the center of Europe necessary for
America to hinder a certain inciting center inside of the European
Union. This inciting center forces the Europeans that are incapable
of independently solving some security problems to seek the support
of the United States.
In reality, proceeding from the current situation that has developed
for many months, it is already possible to state that people on
the Capital Hill decided to transit from the existing system of
international relations to a radically new one beneficial for the US.
By its step regarding Kosovo, the US pushed the whole world towards
bigger systematic changes of the world order. The US did this because
it failed to cope with its task of confirming of leadership in the
single-pole world or hegemony, putting this in another way. The White
House has rejected the world order established since the moment of the
establishment of the UN frequently. Now the White House has transited
to certain practical actions.
Colonel General Leonid Ivashov also spoke with regard to the alleged
wish of Washington to insert a powerful extremist Islamic factor
to Europe. Ivashov said, "All this is a long-term operation of the
US against Europe. Its goal is weakening European integration and
weakening Europe as its competitor."
Conversations about the "uniqueness" of the Kosovo precedent that
allegedly cannot be projected to other frozen conflicts are, according
to the chair of the parliamentary defense committee, nothing more
than an attempt to bypass the international legal norms.
Russian members of the Duma and the Federation Council also believe
that "the current actions aimed at dismembering the territory of a
country, the sovereignty of which over Kosovo is recognized by the UN
Security Council cannot be explained by anything other than a wish
to bring the illegal operation of NATO member states against former
Yugoslavia in 1999 to its natural end."
Possible consequences
Victor Ozerov, chair of the defense and security committee of the
Federation Council, believes that the self-declaration of Kosovo’s
independence and the support of this action by the West will sooner
or later result in a dramatic outburst of extremism, at first, in
the Balkans, and further possibly in the entire European continent.
Ozerov presumes that Serbia may quite possibly request military
assistance from Russia and such assistance should be provided "in
the framework of existing international norms."
Besides, assistance may be provided to Belgrade also from the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS). Ozerov does not rule out that Serbia may
join these organizations in the future. According to him, this may
happen at a moment when the independence of Kosovo "is supported
by a majority of countries in Europe in favor of the US." He added
that during the bombing of Serbia by the US, the parliament of Serbia
already proposed an initiative of joining the CIS but this proposal
was not developed then.
Simultaneously, according to a scenario proposed by the chair of the
defense committee of the Federation Council, some national enclaves
in Spain, Romania, Greece, Bulgaria and some other regions of Europe
may also declare their independence in a unilateral way. Ozerov says,
"If this process begins, it will be necessary to recall the so-called
Muslim arch of instability in Europe about which well-known American
"hawk," Zbigniew Brzezinski, has spoken in the past. The consequences
of this "chain reaction" can be foreseen easily: this will be worse
than the outbursts of terrorism with numerous victims that has happened
in Spain and the UK a few years ago.
Will there be a war in the Caucasus?
There is no doubt that bloodshed may happen in the Caucasus. On
April 13 of 2006, Azerbaijani officer Ramil Safarov bludgeoned Gurgen
Margaryan, an officer of the Armenian army, to death with an axe in
Hungary. They were in this country in the framework of one of the
programs of cooperation with NATO and lived in the same barracks. The
armed forces of Azerbaijan are doing a relevant moral preparation of
the personnel and the authorities of Baku have not hidden than they
justify the action of their officer.
South Ossetia and Abkhazia represent two "special cases" too. Dmitry
Rogozin presumed that no matter what Russia wants, if a new conflict
starts there with regard to restoration of the territorial integrity
of Georgia, Russia will be one way or the other involved. By and large,
Russia is prepared to use the force in this region if necessary.
Now Saakashvili states that he would "give a much more efficient
answer" to any steps towards the recognition of independence of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Is Moscow hypocritical?
Along with this, are Moscow’s actions hypocritical? It is averse to
granting independence to Kosovo although it understands that by hook
or by crook this status will be given to the province. Afterwards
it will be possible to start a process of recognizing Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie addressed this question
to General Zolotarev. The Deputy General Director of the Institute
of the US and Canada answered negatively:
– Moscow does not need to start the processes of state reconfiguration
in post-Soviet space because this is dangerous. What does it need this
for? Integration processes develop in the world and they form a kind
of united Europe. The CIS countries will get involved in them in due
time. I hope that the fact that Georgia cannot preserve its statehood
now is a temporary phenomenon. That is why Russia has such a stance:
it tries to maintain peace there, to develop economic relations as
much as it can but it does not accelerate events there regarding the
recognition of independence of the unrecognized republics. After all,
it is necessary to think about the people who live there first of
all and not about those who strive to governing them.
– What about the hints that Russia has some "preplanned steps"
in case of the recognition of the independence of Kosovo? How can
Russia respond?
– It is difficult to guess at this point. With regard to South Ossetia
and Abkhazia, our President spoke with sufficient clarity: we will
not "copycat" the West. As to Serbia and Kosovo, it is possible that
comprehensive support will be provided to Serbia in the diplomatic
and I think economic area too, although this will be, naturally,
on a mutually beneficial basis. As to Kosovo, Russia will never
recognize it.
Georgia and Ukraine in NATO
Meanwhile, Russia’s envoy to NATO, Rogozin, does not rule out that NATO
military bases, first of all, the American ones, may be established
on the territory of Kosovo soon. Along with this, Rogozin emphasizes
that Russia is concerned not about the possible appearance of the
bases in Kosovo but about the fact of the overall approach of the NATO
infrastructure to the Russian borders, as well as about the plans of
the US antimissile defense elements deployment in the Czech Republic
and Poland.
In this aspect, Moscow expressed its stance very clearly. President
Putin said directly (including the statement addressed to his
Ukrainian colleague Victor Yushchenko), that as soon as Kiev entered
into NATO, Russia would re-aim its missiles "at objects in Ukraine
that we believe will threaten our national security."
Russia’s concern is also based on the fact that additional military
bases, first of all, bases of the US may appear in the south and in
the southwest in the vicinity of Russia.