Author: Nahapetian Boris

SEN. MENENDEZ CROSS-EXAMINES AMBASSADORIAL NOMINEE FOR ARMENIA

Yerkir
20.06.2008 14:12

Yerevan (Yerkir) – Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) castigated the Bush
Administration’s policy of Armenian Genocide denial, today,
dramatically pressing U.S. Ambassadorial nominee to Armenia Marie
Yovanovitch regarding the Administration’s refusal to properly
characterize Ottoman Turkey’s systematic destruction of its Armenian
population as a genocide, reported the Armenian National Committee
of America (ANCA).

The Associated Press, in an article today entitled "Nominee Refuses to
Call Killings Genocide," noted Senator Menendez’s "intense questioning"
and the "prosecutorial style" of his inquiries during the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearing. The AP article,
which was also carried by MSNBC and other media outlets, quoted ANCA
Executive Director Aram Hamparian as saying, after the hearing, that,
"we were troubled by Ambassador Yovanovitch’s refusal to offer any
meaningful rationale for the Administration’s ongoing complicity in
Turkey’s denials."

Sen. Menendez, who had placed two consecutive holds on previous
ambassadorial nominee Dick Hoagland for denying the Armenian Genocide,
meticulously questioned Yovanovitch by presenting historical State
Department documents from the time of the Genocide and comparing
those statements with her opening remarks.

"The US government – and certainly I – acknowledges and mourns the mass
killings, ethnic cleansing and forced deportations that devastated over
one and a half million Armenians at the end of the Ottoman Empire,"
said Yovanovich in her opening testimony.

Following these remarks, Sen. Menendez presented the nominee with
several documents quoting U.S. Ambassadors to the Ottoman Empire
Henry Morgethau and Abram Elkus, and other U.S. diplomats who served
in the region at the time of the Armenian Genocide and documented
the destruction of the Armenian population.

Juxtaposing the eyewitness accounts of these U.S. officials with
the definition of the crime as outlined by the U.N. Convention on
the Punishment and Prevention of the Crime of Genocide, Sen. Menendez
asked whether the President’s annual April 24th remarks, Yovanovitch’s
prepared statements, and her responses regarding U.S. diplomatic
reporting matched the U.N. Convention, to which the U.S. is a
party. Amb. Yovanovitch sidestepped this question, stating instead
that it is the President and the State Department who set the policy
of defining historic events. In her testimony, she publicly confirmed
that "It has been President Bush’s policy, as well as that of previous
presidents of both parties, not to use that term."

Sen. Menendez responded, "It is a shame that career foreign service
officers have to be brought before the Committee and find difficulty
in acknowledging historical facts, and find difficulty in acknowledging
the realities of what has been internationally recognized." He went on
to state, "And it is amazing to me that we can talk about millions, a
million and a half human beings who were slaughtered, we can talk about
those who were raped, we can talk about those who were forcibly pushed
out of their country, and we can have presidential acknowledgements of
that, but then we cannot call it what it is. It is a ridiculous dance
that the Administration is doing on the use of the term genocide. It is
an attempt to suggest that we don’t want to strain our relationships
with Turkey… I believe acknowledging historical facts as they are
is a principal that is easily understood both at home and abroad.

So while the Administration believes that this policy benefits us
vis-a-vis our relationship with Turkey, I think they should also
recognize that it hurts our relationship elsewhere and it tarnishes
the United States’ history of being a place where truth is spoken
to power, and acknowledgment of our failures of the past make us
stronger, not weaker; recognizing the evils of the past do not trap
us, but they set us free."

"We join with Armenian Americans across the nation in thanking
Senator Menendez for his courage and determination in holding the Bush
Administration accountable for its deeply flawed policy of enabling
Turkey’s denial of the Armenian Genocide," said ANCA Executive Director
Aram Hamparian. "Today’s Senate hearing with Ambassador Yovanovitch,
much like yesterday’s testimony before a U.S. House panel by Assistant
Secretary Fried, confirms the sad reality that our government has
allowed a foreign nation to impose a ‘gag rule’ on America’s right
to speak truthfully about the Armenian Genocide."

"We look forward to carefully reviewing Ambassador Yovanovitch’s
responses to the written questions that will be posed by Members
of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in order to get a fuller
understanding of her ability to effectively represent U.S. interests
and American values as our Ambassador to Yerevan," added Hamparian.

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) who chaired the confirmation hearing concurred
with Sen. Menendez, noting that "there is no question in my mind,
that facts speak for themselves, and what happened was genocide… In
Armenia we need an ambassador… who understands the historical facts,
and has the historical facts correctly stated." Sen. Cardin also
questioned Amb. Yovanovitch on the recent elections in Armenia and
urged the Ambassadorial nominee to Austria to help secure Austria’s
support for Turkey’s membership in the European Union.

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) released a statement to coincide with
Amb. Yavanovitch’s confirmation hearing, noting her outrage at the
firing of former U.S. Ambassador to Armenia John Evans for speaking
truthfully about the Genocide. "It is bad enough that Armenians
everywhere have to endure a U.S. President who refuses to acknowledge
the Armenian Genocide despite earlier promises to the contrary. But
Armenians were also recently forced to witness the dismissal of
a career U.S. diplomat, Ambassador John Evans, who expressed his
personal view that it is long past time that the United States call
one of the greatest events of deliberate mass murder in the 20th
century by its rightful name — genocide… I could not agree with
Ambassador Evans more."

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) has submitted a set of questions for the
record in which he reaffirmed the importance of recognizing the
killing of 1.5 million Armenians from 1915 to 1923 as genocide.

HEARINGS ON ARMENIA HELD AT U. S. HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE

DeFacto Agency
June 19 2008
Armenia

On June 18 House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman
(D-CA) led a two hour hearing that included over a dozen members of
Congress questioning Assistant Secretary Dan Fried on the U.S. policy
of complicity in Armenian Genocide denial, Turkey’s blockade, and
Azerbaijan’s escalating threats of war, reported the Armenian National
Committee of America (ANCA).

"We want to thank Chairman Berman for this excellent opportunity for
members of the Foreign Affairs Committee to exercise oversight over a
deeply flawed set of U.S. policies toward Armenia and Armenian American
issues – most notably the Administration’s policy of complicity in
Turkey’s denial of the Armenian Genocide, its lack of any meaningful
steps to lift Turkey’s blockade of Armenia, and its effective silence
in the face of escalating threats of war by an increasingly well
armed Azerbaijan against the people of Nagorno-Karabagh."

Berman opened the hearing stating, "I’d like to start with one of
the most puzzling and problematic matters: the Turkish blockade of
Armenia, in place since 1993. It’s a punishing policy that holds the
Armenian economy back and enormously increases the cost of much of
Armenia’s trade with other nations." He continued noting that "It’s
baffling why Ankara would want to pursue this land blockade, which
also harms the economy of eastern Turkey, and is therefore clearly
contrary to its own interests."

The Chairman’s statement and questions were followed by powerful
remarks and in-depth inquiries by Armenian Genocide Resolution lead
author Adam Schiff (D-CA), Congressional Armenian Caucus Co-Chairs
Frank Pallone (D-NJ) and Joe Knollenberg (R-MI) as well as Committee
members Brad Sherman (D-CA), Diane Watson (D-CA), Ed Royce (R-CA),
and Jim Costa (D-CA), among others.

HISTORIANS TO FIND THE TRUTH NOT POLITICIANS, SAYS GUL

Turkish Daily News
June 18 2008

It is the duty of historians and scientists to write history, not of
politicians or Parliament, the president commented at a conference
on Turkish history yesterday.

President Abdullah Gul spoke at the opening of the 11th International
Congress of Social and Economic History of Turkey, which took place
in Ankara’s Bilkent Hotel yesterday. He said the best way to achieve
accuracy is to leave the evaluation of historical events to historians.

"Our approach as a state is in the same way on the issue of the
alleged-Armenian genocide, which is insistently brought to the agenda,"
he said, adding that Turkey has done its best to ensure the allegations
are investigated by historians.

"We make all our archives available for researchers. Our most
confidential archive is open. Turkey is reconciled with its history
and proud of it."

Gul said it must be the duty of historians and scientists to write
history, not politicians or parliaments, adding, "We objected to
making politics by abusing sorrows in the past and we think in the
same today as well."

"The fact that we are working together to genuinely find the truth
is worthy of applause," said Parliament Speaker Köksal Toptan during
a meeting with representatives from the Azerbaijan-Turkey Historical
Research Foundation Monday. The foundation was established to uncover
the truth about the Armenian genocide allegations.

–Boundary_(ID_2PZFXyBcOl7RsAZQWc3wf Q)–

CONFERENCE DEDICATED TO 10TH ANNIVERSARY OF AARHUS CONVENTION OPENED IN YEREVAN

ArmInfo
2008-06-18 11:45:00

A conference, dedicated to the 10th anniversary of Aarhus Convention,
opened in Yerevan today. The conference has been organized by OSCE
Yerevan Office, UN Armenian representation and RA Ministry of Nature
Protection.

Opening the conference, Head of OSCE Yerevan Office Ambassador Sergey
Kapinos emphasized importance of attracting the public in discussion of
the key ecological problem available in Armenia. In view of this, the
ambassador said that it is too important for the public to be informed
of these problems, availability of which is a serious threat for the
country able to lead to the internal confrontation and aggravation of
relations with neighbours. Contamination of the atmosphere and rivers,
congestion of the motor transport are part of the problems available
in Armenia. The ambassador recalled that Armenia undertook promotion
of the "green democracy ". In this respect, it is necessary to assure
a free access to the information and justice. He emphasized importance
of creation of 9 information ecological centers in the country, due to
which Armenia’s public will be informed of the ecological processes
in the country. S Kapinos also said that 4 similar centers more will
be expectedly created in the near future.

The diplomat emphasized importance of elimination of the missile fuel
"Milange". He recalled that ecological organizations of the republic
have recently scanned Kajaran region and are going to do the same
in Kapan.

For his part, Deputy Ecology Minister, Simon Papyan, said that over the
last two years Armenia succeeded in implementation of its commitments
within the frames of the Aarhus Convention which it had joined in
2001. He also added that amendments were made to the Constitution as
well as to the law-making and normative acts. Moreover, official site
of Ecology Ministry was created.

Various programme on different levels to resolve the existing
ecological problems are being implemented.
–Boundary_(ID_PwWpLI6C+PJvUBSDnC8kPA )
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From: [email protected]
Subject: Conference dedicated to 10th anniversary of Aarhus Convention opened
in Yerevan
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Conference dedicated to 10th anniversary of Aarhus Convention opened in
Yerevan

2008-06-18 11:45:00

ArmInfo. A conference, dedicated to the 10th anniversary of Aarhus
Convention, opened in Yerevan today. The conference has been organized
by OSCE Yerevan Office, UN Armenian representation and RA Ministry of
Nature Protection.

Opening the conference, Head of OSCE Yerevan Office Ambassador Sergey
Kapinos emphasized importance of attracting the public in discussion of
the key ecological problem available in Armenia. In view of this, the
ambassador said that it is too important for the public to be informed
of these problems, availability of which is a serious threat for the
country able to lead to the internal confrontation and aggravation of
relations with neighbours. Contamination of the atmosphere and rivers,
congestion of the motor transport are part of the problems available in
Armenia. The ambassador recalled that Armenia undertook promotion of
the "green democracy ". In this respect, it is necessary to assure a
free access to the information and justice. He emphasized importance of
creation of 9 information ecological centers in the country, due to
which Armenia’s public will be informed of the ecological processes in
the country. S Kapinos also said that 4 similar centers more will be
expectedly created in the near future.

The diplomat emphasized importance of elimination of the missile fuel
"Milange". He recalled that ecological organizations of the republic
have recently scanned Kajaran region and are going to do the same in
Kapan.

For his part, Deputy Ecology Minister, Simon Papyan, said that over the
last two years Armenia succeeded in implementation of its commitments
within the frames of the Aarhus Convention which it had joined in 2001.
He also added that amendments were made to the Constitution as well as
to the law-making and normative acts. Moreover, official site of
Ecology Ministry was created. Various programme on different levels to
resolve the existing ecological problems are being implemented.

_________________________________ _______________________________________
AOL Email goes Mobile! You can now read your AOL Emails whilst on the
move. Sign up for a free AOL Email account with unlimited storage today.

–Boundary_(ID_PwWpLI6C+PJvUBSDnC8kPA)–

ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT STARTS HEARINGS ON NA’S DRAFT STATEMENT ON IMPLEMENTATION OF PACE RESOLUTION 1609

arminfo
2008-06-16 17:38:00

ArmInfo. The Armenian parliament started hearings on the National
Assembly’s draft statement on implementation of PACE Resolution 1609
by Armenia, Monday.

MP Hranush Hakobyan, one of the statement’s authors, said that
the Armenian public has been discussing PACE Resolution 1609 for
two months. Different assessments are given to the Resolution at
different levels, and parallels with other documents are drawn. In
this connection, the representatives of the ruling coalition in
parliament came out with an initiative to prepare a draft statement on
implementation of the Resolution 1609 by the republic. In particular,
the statement covers the events during both pre-election and
post-election periods.

Thus, the PACE Resolution notes that the presidential election in
Armenia was held in line with international standards. Furthermore,
the Resolution calls on all Armenian political forces to obey the
Constitutional Court’s decision. The document also points out the
mistakes and shortcomings registered during the election, as well
as proposals to eliminate them. For instance, PACE recommends the
Armenian authorities to reform the Election Code. In connection with
this speaker of the Armenian parliament formed the working group
on resolving of the given problem. The group is headed by headed by
hairman of the permanent parliamentary commission on the state and
legal issues David Harutyunyan. Experts of different political forces ,
public organizations and mass media were involved in the group. PACE
Resolution also suggests to ensure independence and transparency
in Armenian Public TV activity, which should implement the idea of
pluralism of views.

Moreover, the resolution suggests to ensure independence of the
commission on television and radio. The main problem is that members
of the commission should be selected on the basis of competition. In
this context suggestion of the Heritage party was accepted and the
detailed parliamentary hearing were held on the draft laws which
regulate the given sphere. Practically all the parliamentary forces,
public organizations and mass media took part in the hearing. The
package of the draft laws was drawn out and directed to expertise of
the Venice Commission of the Council of Europe. Within the frames of
Armenia’s commitments extraordinary report of Armenian Ombudsman on
the 1-2 March events was presented. The draft law "On regulations of
the National Assembly" was adopted in the first reading. This draft
law gives wider authorities to the Armenian opposition. Alteration
and amendments were made to the "Law on the order of holding rallies,
demonstrations and processions", which meets all the international
standards at present.

Armenian president charged to set up the working group, headed
by justice minister Gevorg Danielyan, on drawing out legislative
and normative acts directed to ensuring independence of the court
system. As for the arrested people for participation in the 1-2
March events, a total of 115 people were detained and arrested. At
present 72 people out of them were released, 14 recognized they are
guilty and 3 were justified. Thus at present criminal persecution
continues only regarding 24 people. Certain work was implemented for
the dialogue between the opposition and authorities. It is supposed
to start the dialogue within the frames of Public Council as well
as in the National Assembly. Temporary parliamentary commission to
investigate the 1-2 March events is being formed at present. And the
post of deputy chairman of the commission maybe given to representative
of the opposition.

70 PER CENT OF TURKS EYE U.S. AS ENEMY

PanARMENIAN.Net
16.06.2008 14:32 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ U.S. officials had been hoping that Washington’s
recently-launched military cooperation with Turkey in the fight against
the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s, or PKK, terrorists in northern
Iraq would help improve their country’s terribly bad image in Turkey,
but a survey proved that this was not the case.

Some 70 percent of Turks view the United States as an "enemy," while
only 8 percent considers Turkey’s closest Western ally a "partner,"
according to an annual global attitudes report released Thursday by the
Pew Research Center, a think tank here that conducts worldwide polls
and surveys. The percentage of Turks having a favorable opinion about
the United States rose by three points from last year to reach only
12 percent this year. About 77 percent of Turks had unfavorable views
of the United States, the report said. President George W. Bush was
faring even worse in Turkey. Only 2 percent of Turks had a favorable
view of him.

The Pew report covered 23 countries, and its data on Turkey was
gathered through face-to-face interviews with 1,003 subjects from
March 31 to April 21, the Turkish Daily News reports.

28 WOMEN SPENT A SLEEPLESS NIGHT IN NORTHERN AVENUE

A1+
[07:46 pm] 16 June, 2008

Over 28 women spent the night of June 15 in Northern Avenue. They
have gone on a termless hunger-strike.

The strikers demand that the authorities carry out the PACE
recommendations and stop political persecution against Khachatur
Sukiassian, Nikol Pashinian and many others.

They also demand to authorize the opposition’s rally due at Liberty
Square on June 20.

"I cannot understand Serzh Sarkissian. He says one thing but does
another. He declares that opposition rallies will be henceforth
sanctioned but rejects their notifications already for the 47 times. It
doesn’t matter whether he is a liar or he simply doesn’t keep an eye
on his interiors, the fact is that he cannot run the country. Serzh
Sarkissian seized power by force but as people say "a lie has a
short tail and is revealed within 40 days." Let’s wait and see,"
said hunger-striker Ofelia Margarian.

Today an ambulance was called to examine another hunger-striker,
Violetta Ghazarian, whose state worsened all of a sudden.

"A night’s sleeplessness and nervous tension increased her blood
pressure. There is no need to worry as her life is not endangered,"
Doctor Vahan Vahanian said to A1+. The doctor also examined the
other women.

The women say they will not stop the hunger-strike until their
demands are met and a new pan-Armenian election is conducted in the
country. "Willingly or unwillingly, the authorities should take our
demands into consideration," they said.

My 30-year-old son, Ara Hovhannissian, is in custody today. He
was detained on June 9. They saw Ara’s photo on the Internet and
detained him immediately afterwards. But my son did nothing. He was
simply standing nearby with his 10-year-old brother. He is allegedly
accused of seizing a weapon from a policeman and throwing it into the
"Zangu." My son was forced to bear false testimony. Presently, Ara
is in a Sovetashen prison. I shall keep on the hunger-strike until
all the detainees are freed."

To note, a Belgium citizen, 52-year-old Vandual Luk, has joined the
hunger-strikers since yesterday. He says he struggles for democracy
in Armenia.

"I am married to an Armenian and have two children. We live in
Armenia. I have gone on a hunger-strike as children and peace are
the highest values in the world."

Vandual Luk is astonished at the current political situation in
the country.

"I have never been engaged in politics. But I am surprised how
the local authorities announce there are no political prisoners
in Armenia. Nowhere have I seen such a clear-cut gap between the
authorities and the public. Some build castles like Versailles,
others vagabond in streets.

He assured A1+ that if the authorities continue their brute actions
his family will have to move to Belgium.

DISSATISFACTION

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
Published on June 14, 2008
Armenia

RAFFI HOVHANNISYAN considers that there is a real danger that in the
regular session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
the Armenian delegation may be deprived of the right to vote. `We have
submitted a comprehensive though concise program to our coalition
partners. We have also made procedural steps aimed at initiating a
dialogue. We have asked them several times to have a tête-à-tête with
us around one table and open the true public dialogue before the June
session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.

The session is to begin in 10 days, and in my opinion, no essential and
sensible steps have been taken so far. The discredit our republic
suffered recently will continue unless we undertake radical steps
towards initiating reforms. As to whether or not they will deprive our
country of the right to vote is a secondary issue. I am not
optimistic,’ Mr. Hovhannisyan said yesterday, expressing his
dissatisfaction.

Mediamax news agency, Armenia
May 23 2008

MPs comment on Armenia’s progress in meeting Council of Europe
requirements

Yerevan, 23 May: Representatives of political forces in parliament
today discussed the process of realization of proposals contained in
the PACE [Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe] resolution
on the work of democratic institutions in Armenia.

The secretary of the parliamentary faction from the [opposition]
Heritage party, Stepan Safaryan, stated that many proposals of the
resolution had not been implemented yet. He spoke for the quick change
of preventive punishments for the opposition figures under arrest,
accused of calls for the change of the constitutional order using
violence.

The MP noted the necessity to establish a dialogue between the
authorities and the opposition, expressing regret that the proposal of
Heritage leader Raffi Hovhannisyan on holding a meeting between
representatives of the ruling coalition and ex-President Levon
Ter-Petrosyan did not receive an appropriate response from the sides.

A member of the parliamentary faction of the [pro-government] Orinats
Yerkir [Law-Governed Country] Party, Artashes Avoyan, in his turn,
noted that the process of implementation of PACE resolution proposals
was proceeding normally. "The PACE proposals will be fulfilled, and
there are no perquisites to deprive the Armenian parliamentary
delegation of the right to vote," he stated.

A member of the parliamentary faction of the [member of the governing
coalition] Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), who is also the chairman of
the Parliamentary Committee on European Integration, Avet Adonts, said
that the working group set up on orders of President Serzh Sargsyan,
was carrying out active work on the realization of the provisions of
the PACE resolution.

Avet Adonts said that the post-election situation in Armenia would be
discussed at a session of the PACE Monitoring Committee next week in
Kiev and that PACE rapporteurs are expected to visit Yerevan after 10
June.

Turkey

Beyond the veil

Jun 12th 2008 | ANKARA
>From The Economist print edition

The secular and the pious march towards a new collision, with
unforeseeable consequences for democracy and Turkey’s chances in
Europe

WHEN Adnan Menderes, a right-wing politician who spoke up for pious
Anatolians, swept to power as prime minister after Turkey’s first free
parliamentary election 58 years ago, a group of officers began
plotting a military coup within weeks. Ten years later, with the
support of the secular intelligentsia and politicians, they overthrew
the government, by then in its third term. A year later, in September
1961, Menderes was hanged. Yildiray Ogur, a young activist, sees
worrying parallels between the 1960 coup and today’s campaign,
spearheaded by Turkey’s generals and judges, to overthrow Recep Tayyip
Erdogan,

the prime minister, and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). Turkey has
been in upheaval ever since the constitutional court began considering a
case brought by the chief prosecutor to ban the AKP and to bar 71 named
individuals, including Mr Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul, from politics,
on thinly documented charges that they are seeking to impose sharia law.

The stakes were raised on June 5th, when the court overturned a law passed
by a big majority in parliament to let young women wear the Islamic-style
headscarf at universities. By voting 9-2 to quash the law the court sent a
clear signal that it would vote to shut down the AKP. A verdict is expected
by the autumn.

To many the case is like a judicial coup: a last-ditch attempt to cling to
power by an elite that refuses to share wealth and social space with a
rising class of pious Turks, symbolised by the AKP. It may also further
discredit the constitutional court. Above all, says Mr Ogur, the case
reveals "an army that believes it should have the final say, not elected
politicians."

A defiant Mr Erdogan vows to fight back. In a fiery speech in parliament
this week, he declared that the court had exceeded its jurisdiction and
would "need to explain itself to the people." There is talk of changing the
rules for appointing judges and limiting their ability to ban political
parties. Some AKP officials dream of unleashing millions of supporters on to
the streets. But they know that doing so would risk provoking a real
military coup. "We are like lambs being taken to slaughter, we are resigned
to our fate," sighs one AKP deputy.

A few hardy souls pin their hopes on Western support. The European Union has
hinted that it would suspend membership talks if the AKP were banned. But
thanks to the growing opposition to Turkish accession in countries such as
France and Austria, few Turks believe they will ever get in anyway. "With no
carrots left to offer, the EU has no stick to wield," opines Cengiz Aktar,
who follows EU affairs.

The biggest deterrent to overthrowing the AKP may be Turkey’s wobbly
economy. After six years of steady growth the economy is slowing down,
inflation has crept back to double digits and this year’s current-account
deficit is expected to rise to 7% of GDP. Faik Oztrak, a former treasury
under-secretary and opposition parliamentarian, reckons that Turkey will
need at least $135 billion in foreign inflows to plug the gap. As he asks
pointedly, "where will it come from?"

Investor confidence has been rattled by the government’s indecision over
extending an IMF deal that expired in May. "With financial markets remaining
jittery, Turkey is walking on a tightrope, making policy errors potentially
costly. In particular, new initiatives that jeopardise the achievement of
the announced fiscal targets, such as the planned reform of municipal
finances, could tilt the balance of policies and should be avoided," Lorenzo
Giorgianni, the IMF’s mission chief for Turkey, says. He is referring to the
government’s plans to boost local spending.

Yet in Istanbul many financiers seem unfazed. They see no reason for alarm,
even if the AKP is banned. A chastened, wiser AKP would simply regroup under
a different name and it will be business as usual, the argument goes.
Certainly, when a party is banned (they tend to be either pro-Kurdish or
pro-Islamic) its members usually come together under a new banner. But
Islamic parties often come back even stronger. The AKP itself is an offshoot
of Virtue, a party that was banned in 2001. It romped to power in 2002 and
won a second term last year with a bigger share of the vote.

Even if it were disbanded, the AKP’s surviving parliamentarians would remain
as independents in sufficient numbers to be able to force another snap
election. Indeed, the million-dollar question, as one European diplomat puts
it, is "whether those who are perpetrating this strategy against the AKP
will let them come back even stronger. They are stuck between a coup and a
hard place."

Not everyone thinks that the AKP will emerge unscathed. Even his allies
agree that Mr Erdogan made a strategic blunder by passing the headscarf law
instead of blending it into a package of broader reforms embodied in a new
constitution. Instead of appeasing secular fears, some AKP members crowed
that the headscarf would soon be allowed in government offices as well. Many
say the void left by Mr Gul, who moved up from foreign minister to become
president last August, is partly to blame for Mr Erdogan’s mistakes. As
number two in the AKP, Mr Gul had often curbed Mr Erdogan’s rasher
instincts.

Meanwhile, support in the Kurdish south-east, where the AKP made big gains
last year, has been waning ever since Mr Erdogan yielded to army pressure
and authorised cross-border attacks on PKK terrorists in northern Iraq. He
also snubbed members of the pro-Kurdish Democratic People’s Party (DTP) in
parliament. Police brutality and mass arrests during a May 1st demonstration
in Istanbul have not helped his image.

Yet, for all his and the party’s failings, recent opinion polls suggest that
the AKP retains a big lead over its rivals. "You may criticise us for going
slow on reforms, but the truth is that we made more changes than Turkey was
able to absorb," says Abdurrahman Kurt, an AKP member from Diyarbakir. By
giving pious Turks a political voice, the AKP has also bolstered their faith
in democracy.

By overturning the headscarf law, says Mazhar Bagli, a sociologist at
Diyarbakir’s Dicle university, the court is running the risk that "radical
groups will now seek their rights through illegal means." In other words,
the threat of radical Islam in Turkey may have increased thanks to the
secularists’ attack on the AKP.