ARMENIA: PRESIDENTIAL VISIT TO RUSSIA SPARKS SPECULATION ON TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS
Haroutiun Khachatrian
EurasiaNet
June 27 2008
NY
The venue for Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s first official visit
abroad — Moscow — came as no surprise. But, in a potential sign of
a fresh Armenian foreign policy initiative, it was Turkey that stole
the show.
Sargsyan’s June 23-25 trip was designed to emphasize the importance
of Armenia’s "strategic partnership’ with Russia. There were the
usual touches — meetings with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev,
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and the chairs of both chambers of
parliament. He also placed a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier,
and met with political experts and journalists.
And there were the usual expressions of mutual support. In a June
24 statement, Medvedev described the partnership between Moscow and
Yerevan as critical to the entire South Caucasus. The two countries
have declared that they will coordinate their foreign policy to further
that relationship. "We are confident that close cooperation between
Russia and Armenia is a pledge for the stable … development of the
whole region," Medvedev said.
Medvedev also reiterated Russia’s support for a solution to the
conflict with Azerbaijan over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region
via existing negotiating mechanisms.
But the three-day visit was not without surprises — at least for
Armenians. On June 23, Sargsyan, who has requested that the "Sarkisian"
spelling of his last name be dropped, announced that he wants to
normalize relations with Turkey as quickly as possible. As a means to
that end, he has pledged to invite Turkish President Abdullah Gul to
Yerevan to watch the September 6 World Cup qualifying match between
Turkey and Armenia. The Armenian capital will be hosting the game.
Sargsyan’s assertion that he would not object to a panel of
Armenian-Turkish experts examining the massive 1915 killing of ethnic
Armenians by Ottoman Turks was cause for further discussion among
Armenians. A condition, however, was put on the creation of such a
panel — the reopening of Turkey’s border with Armenia. "Otherwise,
[the panel] may become a good way of abusing and prolonging the issue
for [many] years," PanArmenian.net reported Sargsyan as saying.
The issue has long been a stumbling block for any attempt at
normalizing relations with Ankara. Former President Robert Kocharian
had maintained that the event — termed genocide within Armenia —
was not subject to debate.
One Yerevan expert, though, argues that Sargsyan’s move was more
aimed at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
(PACE) than at Turkey itself. "I believe Sargsyan was just trying
to get a beneficial vote, including by the Turkish delegates, for
the PACE resolution about Armenia expected in Strasbourg two days
later," commented Alexsander Iskandarian, director of the Caucasus
Institute. The June 25 resolution gave the Armenian government until
January 2009 to meet earlier demands for overtures to the opposition
in the wake of March 1 crackdown on protestors led by ex-President
Levon Ter-Petrosian. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Armenia’s ruling coalition appears potentially split on the notion
of an Armenian-Turkish genocide investigation. In a June 25 story,
the daily newspaper Aravot quoted Vahan Hovahannisian, leader of the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun’s parliamentary
faction, as saying that his party would organize a protest if Gul
arrives in Yerevan in September.
By comparison, problems with Russia appeared to receive far less
official scrutiny.
No progress was made in determining the price of Russian gas for
Armenia the coming year. Nor was mention made of Russia’s prospective
role in an Armenian project to refine Iranian crude oil. Apart
from a pledge to restore Armenia’s railway link with Russia, land
transportation — an issue since the main Georgian-Russian border
point closed in 2006 — also escaped attention.
While most Armenian politicians dodged debate about Armenia’s ties
with Russia, pro-opposition media were quick to express skepticism
about the event.
Referring to unnamed "sources close to the Kremlin," the daily Haykakan
Zhamanak claimed on June 25 that Medvedev had criticized Sargsyan’s
efforts to strengthen Armenia’s ties with the European Union and the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization as well as his alleged failure to
guarantee political stability within the country. The newspaper argued
that the lack of a response from Medvedev to an open invitation from
Sargsyan to visit Armenia hints that the Kremlin may not be as pleased
with Yerevan as the official bonhomie may suggest.
Officials could not be reached for comment. But analyst Iskandarian
believes that, on the whole, the summit’s primary purpose was
achieved: Sargsyan and Medvedev have now "calibrated their watches,"
he said. "Both have reached their goals."