DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
October 5, 2007 Friday
CAUCASUS: AGGRAVATION OF TENSION;
as a prelude to a military operation against Iran?
by Sergei Shakarjants
AGGRAVATION OF TENSION IN THE CAUCASUS AND DEPLOYMENT OF THE US ARMY
THERE UNDER ANY CONVENIENT PRETEXT MAY BE USED AS ELEMENTS OF THE
PLANS AGAINST IRAN; Nothing will please Washington better than a
conflict in the Caucasus that will enable it to deploy units of the
US Army in the region for the eventual operation against Iran.
The situation that shaped up in the Caucasus and nearby regions last
week was definitely odd. What was more important – another domestic
political crisis in Georgia where ex-defense minister Irakly
Okruashvili condemned Mikhail Saakashvili (the president and his
recent ally) of crimes of such gravity that he himself was arrested
on September 28, or the frequent visits of Turkish generals to
Azerbaijan traditionally covered with a veil of secrecy? Or the first
contact between the new prime ministers of Russia and Armenia Victor
Zubkov and Serj Sarkisjan in Moscow? Or, finally, the widely
publicized meetings of secretaries of Security Councils and defense
ministries of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization in
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan?
All these events apparently pale in comparison with what happened in
New York where the President of Iran, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, addressed
the 62nd Session of the UN General Assembly. His address was expected
with vivid interest because US President George W. Bush had flatly
refused to engage in public debates with Ahmadinejad within the
framework of the UN General Assembly.
Ahmadinejad kept striking – ideologically, of course – at the United
States and UN Security Council. The Iranian leader condemned the
United States as a "bullying empire that develops a national missile
defense and aggravates the danger of another war." In other words,
Ahmadinejad all but joined the Russian-American debates over the
matter. The president of Iran denounced resolutions of the UN
Security Council urging Tehran to stop uranium enrichment and
proclaimed this international structure a hostage in the games of
world powers promoting their own interests. "The Iranian nuclear
program is a closed problem, one that is a routine prerogative of the
IAEA again," Ahmadinejad concluded. "There is no longer an Iranian
nuclear folder. The IAEA stopped bringing politics into the
thoroughly apolitical matter of the Iranian nuclear development."
This particular rock is going to make a lot of geopolitical circles
on the surface of international affairs yet, but at least one
corollary is already clear. The United States has all but turned down
the Russian idea of the joint use of the radar in Gabala the Russian
Armed Forces leased from Azerbaijan. Washington announced that it
might consider the option but its program of deployment of elements
of the US national missile defense in the Czech Republic and Poland
would proceed as planned, and that is unacceptable for Moscow. The US
experts accompanying their Russian peers on a tour of the Gabala
radar packed up and promptly left for Adjaria last week. Where
(sources in Baku, Tbilisi, and Batumi claim) they contemplated the
deployment of another element of the US national missile defense on
the territory of this Georgian autonomy. As a matter of fact, even
pro-American political scientists and experts in Russia had been
saying that this turn of events was quite possible – even from the
purely technological standpoint (a reference to the speculations in
Georgia on the installation of mobile radars on its territory). Once
the news of the US experts’ visit to Adjaria reached them, the
governments of Abkhazia and South Ossetia said that a year ago their
secret services had been saying already that everything necessary for
US radars was already in Georgia, shipped there in advance. The gear
had to be unpacked and put together, and the airspace and territories
of Russia and Iran would be under American observation.
What is going to happen in the region now? General Nikolai Bordyuzha,
General Secretary of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization
who attended the meeting of secretaries of national Security
Councils, was asked what this structure regarded as a threat to
itself at this point. "Belligerent statements from representatives of
certain countries revealing their eagerness to settle some of the so
called suspended conflicts by sheer strength of arms," he replied.
"Not to mention the escalation of military activity, the growth of
arms spending and manpower of the regular armies of Georgia and
Azerbaijan." Georgia stages military and political provocations now
against Abkhazia, the following day against South Ossetia, as a means
of promotion of its interests. Senior officials in Baku (beginning
with Defense Minister Safar Abiyev) talk "counter-terrorism
operations" in Nagorno-Karabakh. Two Turkish military delegations
visited the Apsheron Peninsula one after another. The agenda of their
negotiations in Baku remains hidden from general public. One of the
delegations was headed by Brigadier General Mjunir Erten of Turkish
army intelligence.
All of that may be taken as an indirect confirmation of the
assumption that a major provocation is being prepared in the region,
and that a military operation may be one of its elements. Where will
it begin and who will find himself on the receiving end – Iran or
Russia?
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US State Secretary
Condolleezza Rice "disagree" on the matter of sanctions against Iran,
Reuters reported on September 28.
Lavrov reminded Rice that the IAEA vouched for implementation of its
accords with Tehran. "The IAEA even reports that work is proceeding
ahead of the schedule agreed upon with Iran. It allows for the hopes
that we will soon find answers to the questions Tehran denies us
once," the Russian minister said.
All pros and cons of a military solution to the Iranian problem have
been voiced. The UN general Assembly is proof that the United States
lacks actual and faithful allies in the international community. And
yet, The Sunday Times reports that the United States set up a special
team to draw a plan of bombardment of Iran (Operation Checkmate). The
newspaper claims that the team includes 30 senior officers of the US
AF and computer specialists. They have direct lines constantly open
to the White House, CIA, and other American secret services.
Nothing will please the hawks longing for a war on Iran better than
some conflict in the Caucasus and the deployment of the US Army there
under any convenient pretext. Is that why the Americans have the
Turkish military visit Baku and sic Tbilisi on South Ossetia and
Abkhazia?
Source: Severny Kavkaz (Nalchik), No 34, October 2 – 8, 2007, EV