Transcaspian Gas Pipeline Not Bound With Karabakh Problem

TRANSCASPIAN GAS PIPELINE NOT BOUND WITH KARABAKH PROBLEM

PanARMENIAN.Net
12.02.2007 18:10 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ "The Armenian Foreign Minister made remarks on
of Armenia’s joining the Transcaspian gas pipeline, the terms
of implementation of which are hard to determine. The idea of
running through the Caspian seabed for transportation of the
Kazakh gas to Azerbaijan is lobbied by the U.S. administration. The
technical-economic basis of the project is laid by the U.S. Oskanian’s
statement proceeds from this fact," director of Caucasus analytical
center Victor Yakubyan told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter.

In his words, the Transcaspian gas pipeline is an issue of global
politics bound by the interests of the U.S., EU, Russia, Iran, Turkey
and a number of other states. "Oskanian’s statements is political
and not coordinated either with energy ministers or ArmRosgazprom
leaders. Nevertheless, the project is by no means tied with the
Karabakh problem, as some Azeri say. By the time the states interested
in the pipeline through the undivided Caspian seabed succeed in
breaking down the resistance of those not interested, the Karabakh
conflict will have been settled, I hope. Thus far, Armenia can lobby
filling the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum gas pipeline with mid-Asian gas but
I doubt Yerevan needs it," the Armenian experts said.

The Uncontainable Kurds

The Uncontainable Kurds

By Christopher de Bellaigue
1.
Since the Turkish Republic was set up in 1923, no Turkish statesman
has shown the necessary combination of courage and imagination to
resolve the question of how the country’s ethnic Kurds, who are now
estimated to number fifteen million people, should be
treated. Turkey’s leaders have tried variously to isolate the Kurds,
integrate them, and repress them, hoping that they might agree to live
unobtrusively in a state that was set up on the premise that all its
inhabitants, except for a small number of non-Muslim minorities, are
Turks.

During the past twenty years, several million Kurds have moved from
their homes in southeastern Turkey to towns and cities further west,
many to Istanbul-some to escape the state’s pitiless treatment of
Kurds, others in the hope of becoming a bit less poor. Some of these
Kurds have done what the state wanted them to. They have married
Turks, or they have decided not to teach their children to speak
Kurmanji, the Kurdish language that is most widespread in Turkey. They
have taken their place in the mainstream Turkish economy and learned
to enjoy Turkish food, pop music, and soap operas. In short, they have
become the Turks that the state always insisted they were.

But there is another group, perhaps as large, who have remained in the
southeast and in the Kurdish neighborhoods of cities in western
Turkey. These people, recalling the humiliations to which they, as
Kurds, have for years been subject, or because members of their
families have fought against the Turkish state, retain a strong sense
of Kurdish identity that has not been weakened by the military defeat
that the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) sustained in the late 1990s, when
it was forced to scale down its long guerrilla war against the Turkish
army; and that has survived the capture, in 1999, of the PKK leader,
Abdullah Ocalan, who is serving a life sentence on a prison island
near Istanbul.

The pride of such Kurds in their identity has been sharpened by two
unexpected developments. First, since the American invasion of Iraq,
the Kurds of northern Iraq have established a federal region that
enjoys nearly complete autonomy. It runs its own armed forces,
decides how to spend its revenues, and maintains independent (if
unofficial) foreign relations. This nearly sovereign Kurdistan
-inhabited by more than five million people-is a source of pride to
Kurdish nationalists everywhere. Second, under pressure from the
European Union, a club that the Turkish government has long wanted to
join, Turkey passed a series of laws, mostly between 2002 and 2004,
which have increased freedom of expression and relaxed slightly the
monopoly held by the official Turkish culture. Under these laws,
Kurds now have the right to broadcast in Kurdish and to set up
private Kurdish-language schools. They are able to articulate their
grievances more bluntly and they are physically safer. Following the
passage of anti-torture legislation, reports of torture in police
stations and jails have dropped markedly.

In August 2005, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, whose mildly
Islamist Justice and Development Party has been in power since 2002,
acknowledged during a visit to Diyarbakir, the main city of the
largely Kurdish region in the southeast, that the state had made
mistakes in its dealings with the Kurds, and that the answer to the
problem was "more democracy." Coming at a time when the PKK was
stepping up its attacks, ostensibly in reaction to Turkey’s refusal to
offer amnesties to PKK militants and to end Ocalan’s solitary
confinement, the prime minister seemed to be making a brave effort to
soften the policies of repression that have contributed to the Kurds’
discontent for so long. But this rapprochement did not last long.

Three months after Erdogan’s trip to Diyarbakir, the new mood was
changed by Turkish actions so cynical and deliberate that they
illustrated how hard it is to control military power once it has
become embedded in a civilian state. On November 9, 2005, a bookshop
owned by a Kurdish nationalist in Semdinli-a town in the extreme
southeastern corner of Turkey near the border with Iraq and Iran-was
bombed, killing one man and injuring others. The bombers, who were
caught soon after the act by local people, turned out to be two agents
of the Turkish gendarmerie and a PKK guerrilla-turned-informer. Their
identities seemed to confirm the long-held conviction of many in
Turkey that some members of the armed forces, afraid of losing the
prestige, political autonomy, and big budgets that they have enjoyed
since the PKK rebellion gained momentum in the late 1980s, do not want
peace at all.

The attack at Semdinli may have been the moment when Erdogan’s
democratically elected, moderately pro-European government lost
ground to the chauvinist representatives- only partially visible-of
what Turks call the "deep state," and to their supporters in the
armed forces. The generals, many of them secular-minded in the
tradition of Kemal Ataturk, get on badly with Erdogan’s Justice and
Development Party, which they believe is trying to introduce an
Islamic republic by stealth. Shortly after the bombing at Semdinli,
Yasar Buyukanit, then the commander of Turkey’s army, who had been
tipped to become the next chief of the General Staff, the country’s
highest-ranking military post, described one of the bombers as a
"good fellow," and this remark was mentioned in the charge sheet that
a prosecutor prepared in connection with the bombing. Put under
public pressure from the General Staff and its allies in the pliant
mainstream press, Turkey’s judicial authorities fired the
prosecutor. The bombers received heavy prison sentences and Buyukanit
was duly appointed chief of the General Staff. And so the Semdinli
bombing, whose instigators Erdogan had promised to punish, "no matter
who they are," was swept out of sight.

After the explosion at Semdinli, the violence continued, not with the
intensity of the war that engulfed the region in the early 1990s, but
sharply enough to affect Turkey’s internal politics and damage its
international standing. Between January and October of 2006, 299
people, the great majority of them militants, were killed in clashes
between the PKK and the armed forces- the highest such figure since
1999. In the spring of 2006, at least ten people died in riots that
broke out during a funeral in Diyarbakir for PKK guerrillas killed by
government forces. For three days, Diyarbakir was ungovernable, as
thousands of unemployed young men, many of whom live in the streets
and survive by begging and shining shoes, trashed banks, police
stations, and shops. In the summer, a group that is an offshoot of
the PKK claimed responsibility for planting a series of deadly bombs
in tourist resorts. In Septem-ber, a Turkish nationalist organization
set off a bomb in a crowded park in Diyarbakir, killing ten
civilians-all of them presumably Kurds.

To many officials of the European Union, the Semdinli bombing and its
aftermath showed that such principles as the subordination of the
armed forces to civilian authority and the independence of judges were
still being violated in Turkey. In June, the Turkish parliament added
what the European Commission described as "restrictions on freedom of
expression" to the country’s anti-terror law. Anders Fogh Rasmussen,
Denmark’s conservative prime minister, described as "shocking" a
trial, which is still going on, of more than fifty pro-PKK mayors who
had urged him to resist pressure from the Turkish government to close
the PKK’s unofficial TV channel, Roj, which broadcasts from
Copenhagen.

General Buyukanit, as the new chief of staff, looks the part of head
of state, and the mainstream Turkish press, which covered in fawning
detail his recent official visit to Greece, treats him almost as if he
is one. In October, Buyukanit had a sharp exchange with a Turkish
party leader who suggested that PKK guerrillas should be encouraged to
come down from the mountains-whether in Turkey or Iraq-and take part
in politics. "This is a call for a general amnesty," Buyukanit said,
"and I strongly deplore it." When he publicly criticized the impunity
with which Turkey’s main pro-PKK newspaper propagandizes for the
organization, a court then ordered the paper to close down
temporarily. As the European Commission’s report lamented, Turkey’s
armed forces continue to exercise "significant political influence."

In November, Finland, holder of the rotating presidency of the
European Union, announced that it had failed in its efforts to
persuade Turkey to accede to the EU’s demands that it open its ports
to Greek Cypriot ships, a step that Turkey is prepared to take only if
the EU lifts its embargo on the Turkish-run northern third of the
divided island.[1] On December 11, European Union foreign ministers
punished Turkey by slowing down accession negotiations, pending a
settlement of the issue, which may still be possible through
diplomacy. But as the commission’s November appraisal showed, Cyprus
is not the only big impediment to progress in the negotiations,
although it is the most urgent.

The European Commission’s report also criticized Turkey for the
influence of its armed forces on "Cyprus, secularism, the Kurdish
issue, and the indictment concerning the Semdinli bombing." Reading
these criticisms, I thought of two servants of the Turkish state I met
during several visits to eastern Turkey over the past two years. One
was an army captain; the other was a policeman, or so he told me.

My visits have coincided with a hardening of European public opinion,
especially in Germany and France, against Turkish membership in the
union; a reaction has been felt in Turkey, where support for joining
has greatly diminished. (According to a recent poll conducted in
fifteen Turkish towns and cities, 32 percent of people now believe
that Turkey "must certainly enter the European Union"; in 2004, that
figure was 67 percent.)

Some European governments and parliaments, led by France, regard
Turkey’s refusal to accept moral responsibility on behalf of the
Ottoman Empire for the massacre of a million or more Armenians during
World War I, or to accept that the massacres amount to genocide, as
another serious obstacle to membership, even if the European
Commission does not officially regard it as one. Turkish nationalist
lawyers have become notorious by bringing suits against dozens of
writers, journalists, and academics, Orhan Pamuk among them, on
charges of "insulting Turkishness." (Hrant Dink, the Armenian-Turkish
newspaper editor who was shot dead by a Turkish nationalist in
January, was one of the few Turkish citizens whose trial on these
charges led to a conviction and, in Dink’s case, a suspended
sentence.)

In Istanbul and other places, visiting European politicians deplore
Turkey’s reluctance to resolve legal ambiguities surrounding the
ownership of scores of Christian places of worship. And in the
southeast, where the EU has long supported enhanced Kurdish
rights-although not the PKK, which it considers a terrorist
organization-European officials have on occasion recommended
legislation that would make it easier for Kurdish parties that
renounce violence to gain admittance to parliament, and would oblige
state schools in Kurdish areas to offer instruction in the local
language.

As the top soldier in a district with an overwhelming Kurdish
majority, the captain I spoke to had more authority than any other
official, but he was little liked by local people. One day in 2005, as
we stood on a hill overlooking the shell of a police station that had
been bombed by the PKK some years ago, he told me that Turkey should
not take part in an admissions process whose aim was to emasculate the
country. In the guise of the EU process and its "civilizing" reforms,
he said, the ground was being laid for the creation of an independent
Kurdistan in eastern Anatolia. Mustafa Kemal’s government had acted
decisively in 1920 when it persuaded the allies to abandon their
effort to set up a Kurdish state. In the face of the new threat, the
captain assured me, the armed forces and other patriotic Turks would
prevent such a state from coming into being.

The young provincial police officer I spoke to last autumn had a
surprisingly impressive grasp of Middle Eastern issues and
international politics. We met shortly after the lower house of the
French parliament had approved a bill that would make it a criminal
offense to "deny" the Armenian genocide,[2] and the Nobel committee
had announced that this year’s prize for literature would go to Orhan
Pamuk, a decision that most Turks of my acquaintance connect with
Pamuk’s earlier comments about the Armenian massacres. During a
two-hour conversation, the police officer dwelt on European
hypocrisy-the record of France in Algeria, for example-and on the
discrimination that many Muslim immigrants meet with in Europe. He,
like the army captain, felt much nostalgia for the heyday of the
Ottoman Empire, when Turks had run the Balkans, North Africa, and
much of the Middle East. He jovially said he couldn’t trust me. "In
fact," he went on, "I feel no trust for any Westerner whatsoever. I’m
obliged to proceed according to the policies set by my government,
but personally I think we have no need for the EU."

Neither of these Turks, the products of academies with thousands of
graduates annually, was saying anything exceptional. Some in Turkey,
notably in the private sector and at some universities and among the
Westernized middle class, continue to believe fervently that Turkey
must be part of Europe, but most Turks no longer do so. This change of
heart, feeding off Europe’s hostility and exacerbating it in turn,
lies behind the text of the European Commission’s recent report, and
explains why the Turks, despite the reforms of the past few years,
once again seem a long way from joining the European Union.

2.
Seemingly anxious about its authority, the Turkish state has branded
the land. The words "Above all, the Homeland" have been written in
huge letters by conscripts on a chalky hillside between Mus and
Diyarbakir. Further along the same road, there is a large sign with a
Turkish star and crescent. Each time I visit Turkey, it seems that
the portraits of Ataturk, painted onto canvas and flapping down the
side of big public buildings, or digitally reproduced in the window
of a department store, have got bigger; they are now overwhelming
features on façades and walls. The portraits and the Turkish flags
that fly everywhere, the biggest flags that I have ever seen, make a
whipping, cracking sound on a windy day. From what I know of Ataturk,
a republican and a rationalist, he would have abhorred the cult that
has been posthumously built around him. The ideals he promoted were
those of Turkishness and modernism. Finding them hard to realize, or
perhaps even to define, his successors have filled the country with
his handsome face and his spiky, blood-red flag.

On the other side of Turkey’s southern border, in the Kandil Mountains
of northern Iraq, the man prominently portrayed is Abdullah
Ocalan. After a drive into the mountains northeast of Erbil, the
capital of the Kurdish federal region, you round a bend and see his
face, painted black and blue on white concrete that has been poured
onto the flint-strewn hillside. It is an ordinary face, rough and
slightly startled-the face, we now know, of a survivor.

Eight years ago, when he was seized as a fugitive in Africa and
brought back to Turkey to stand trial for his life, Ocalan’s future
looked bleak. In the words of Nizamettin Tas, a prominent PKK defector
who was then a high-ranking commander, "we expected him to resist and
then to be executed." Ocalan did not resist. After he surrendered, he
called the rebellion a "mistake" and renounced his former demands for
Kurdish independence and even autonomy. He ordered his men to observe
a cease-fire, which lasted until 2004, and all but a few PKK militants
withdrew from Turkish territory into northern Iraq. The Turkish
authorities may have calculated that a compromised, captive Ocalan
would serve their interests better than a martyr whose execution would
provoke more violence and strain relations with the European Union. In
the end, Ocalan’s death sentence was commuted to life imprisonment
after Turkey’s parliament outlawed capital punishment in 2001.

Since then, the PKK and the polit-ical parties that have acted as PKK
fronts in Turkish politics before being closed down by court order-the
Democratic Society Party is the latest -have confounded many
predictions and survived. The relative freedom with which Ocalan’s
lawyers have been able to pass on his messages has led some to suspect
that he is cooperating with his captors-that he has defected, in
effect, to the "deep state." Ocalan has praised Ataturk and criticized
the Erdogan government’s undermining of secularism and also the
"feudal nature" of the two Kurdish parties that, between them, run the
Kurdish federal region of northern Iraq. On some subjects, his
positions do not seem far from those of the Turkish establishment; but
he remains the symbol of the Turkish cause.

Several books written by former PKK members portray the organization
as a personality cult whose members must subordinate their own
identities to the official ideology, and where two "crimes," in
particular criticism of Ocalan and romantic relationships between
male and female guerrillas, are punishable by death. The young
militants, many of them women, that I spoke to in Iraq’s Kandil
Mountains described Ocalan as a visionary and a genius. (There are
few signs of brilliance in his many books and published speeches,
which contain a lot of vague philosophizing and hardly any
self-doubt.) Some of these young women seem to have joined the PKK,
where they are taught to fight and given the same duties as male
militants, because it offers them an escape from patriarchal Kurdish
society. One I spoke to said that she had arrived at Kandil from
southeastern Turkey as an illiterate and that the organization had
taught her to read. Now, in timber schoolrooms in camps scattered
across Kandil, she and her comrades study Ocalan’s "Democratic,
Ecological Paradigm," the latest of his many treatises for ordering
the world; much of it could have come from the program of any Green
Party in Europe.

The unquestioning obedience of these militants to Ocalan, and their
conviction that he is a great historical figure, explain why they do
not seem bothered by the ambiguities that make it hard, from the
outside, to find out what the PKK now stands for. The PKK is a
guerrilla army estimated to be five thousand strong, but it says it
wants peace and it announced a new cease-fire, the fifth in its
history, on October 1. The militants who once aimed to set up an
independent, socialist Kurdistan in the southeast of Turkey now
disavow that aim; they would, they say, be content with guaranteed
rights to political activity and free expression.

One point that senior PKK men like to make is that the organization
acts as a brake on radical Islamist groups that are gaining influence
across the Kurdish southeast, alarming secularists in Turkey’s
civilian and military establishment. "If we are eliminated," Murat
Karayilan, the PKK’s acting leader, told me, "those religious
movements will develop."

After more than two decades of struggle, in which at least 30,000
guerrillas and sympathizers were killed and an unknown number were
imprisoned, tortured, and harassed, the PKK’s emotional hold over
millions of Kurds remains strong. Even now, in Diyarbakir and other
places in the southeast, it is hard to find people who openly
criticize the PKK, apart from the "loyalist" Kurds who have been armed
and funded by the state. Many would-be critics have been silenced by
the PKK’s vengeful attitude toward those it considers traitors. In
2005, a Kurdish politician opposed to the PKK was gunned down in
Diyarbakir. Of the seventeen commanders who quit the organization in
2003 and set up a rival group, no fewer than seven have been
assassinated, Nizamettin Tas told me in November. According to
Karayilan, "rogue" militants acting without PKK sanction may have
carried out some of these killings. He dismisses suggestions that it
might be in the PKK’s interest to select a new leader. "It was
Abdullah Ocalan who gave the Kurds their spirit and their voice," he
told me. "To abandon Abdullah Ocalan is to abandon Kurdishness."

The PKK is the most widespread and resilient of the many Kurdish
groups that have fought against the Turkish Republic. This opposition,
and the sympathy that Kurdish nationalism now receives in Europe, have
forced the state to acknowledge the existence of its large Kurdish
population. In other ways, however, the rebellion has been a curse on
the Kurds. The state’s tactic of destroying entire villages has made
much of the rural southeast uninhabitable.[3] By the mid-1990s,
according to Human Rights Watch, more than three thousand villages had
been "virtually wiped from the map." Moreover, as a consequence of
internal migration, the old dream of Turkey’s Kurds, to set up an
independent or autonomous Kurdistan with its capital at Diyarbakir,
now seems unfeasible. It is hard to imagine such a territory emerging
without widespread ethnic cleansing by Turkish nationalists intent on
"purifying" Kurdish-inhabited parts of western Turkey, while the Kurds
fight back.

>From the point of view of the Turkish Republic, the decision not to
execute Ocalan now seems fortuitous. From his prison cell, he
exercises a generally restraining influence on an organization whose
fanatical members are capable of extreme violence. The latest
cease-fire has not held, amid assertions by Murat Karayilan that the
militants are obliged to defend themselves against Turkish attacks,
but few expect a return to the total war of the early 1990s, which
cost so many lives on both sides. From Ocalan’s conciliatory messages
it is possible to infer that he wants the Turks to recognize him as
the leader of his people, and that he will cooperate more if they
do. With Buyukanit in charge of the armed forces, Turkish nationalist
feeling running high, and two elections-parliamentary and
presidential-due in 2007, Turkey is unlikely to give Ocalan his wish
soon.

3.
Turkey’s longstanding fear, that the Kurdish federal region in Iraq
will declare independence, adding to nationalist passions among its
own Kurds, is shared by Iran and Syria, the other countries that have
divided up the ancient region of Kurdistan.[4] Shortly before the US
invaded Iraq, Iran started to change its former policy of helping PKK
militants as a means of exerting pressure on Turkey. Murat Karayilan
complains that the Iranians and the Syrians-who, under Turkish
pressure, had already reversed their own pro-PKK policy-frequently now
capture PKK militants and hand them over to Turkey. Last summer, Iran
and Turkey bombed camps in the Kandil Mountains belonging to the PKK
and the Party for Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK), a PKK affiliate
dominated by Kurds from Iran, which started launching attacks in 2004
on Iran’s security forces. Turkey’s army massed menacingly on the
Iraqi border. In fear of a land invasion of their territory, and
encouraged, perhaps, by the US, the northern Iraqi Kurds persuaded the
PKK to announce its current ceasefire, which is only partially
observed.

The Turkish government’s decision not to enter Iraq shows how
constrained it feels in comparison with the final years of Saddam
Hussein’s dictatorship, when it mounted large-scale annual operations
in the Kandil Mountains. Turkey is still feeling the effects of its
parliament’s decision in 2003 to refuse a US request to use Turkey as
a launch pad for the Iraq invasion. This decision infuriated the Bush
administration and limited Turkey’s ability to influence postwar
Iraq. America’s occupation of Iraq has curtailed Turkey’s freedom to
move forces in and out of Iraq when it likes; but the Americans have
not themselves taken action against the PKK in Iraq, as Turkey has
demanded.

It is not surprising that the US, engaged in a demoralizing struggle
against insurgents in Iraq’s Arab regions, has balked at starting a
new offensive in Kurdistan, the calmest part of the country, against
an organization that has never attacked it and at the behest of a
country that refused its request for help three years ago. Turkey
suspects that Bush’s appointment of Joseph Ralston, a retired general,
to come up with an anti-PKK policy acceptable to the Iraqi and Turkish
governments is a smokescreen. More than four months have passed since
Ralston was named to his post, but a specially formed contact group,
with Turkish and Iraqi representatives, has yet to meet.

If you visit the Kurdish federal region in Iraq, with its own
president, parliament, and flag, you may come away, as I did, with the
impression that it is on the way to independence. "At this stage,"
Massoud Barzani, the region’s president, told The Wall Street Journal
recently, "the parliament of Kurdistan has decided to remain within a
federal, democratic Iraq."[5] How long will that decision last? Most
Iraqis, and many outsiders, are suspicious of the Kurds’ determination
to gain ownership of the oil-rich governorate of Kirkuk-a territory
with a mixed population of Kurds, Turkmen, Arabs, and Christians-whose
status, according to the constitution, is to be decided by a
referendum before the end of 2007. In the words of a recent report by
the International Crisis Group, "Kirkuk’s oil wealth would enable
Kurdish independence…. [The Kurds] know that without Kirkuk, they
would govern at most a rump state profoundly dependent on
neighbours."[6]

Jalal Talabani, the Kurdish president of Iraq, and a longtime sparring
partner of Barzani, is regarded as a restraining influence on the
Kurds’ irredentist ambitions. In a recent profile of him in The New
Yorker, he described the suggestion of Peter Galbraith, a former State
Department official, that Iraq should be partitioned, as "wishful
thinking…. There is not, I think, a realistic Kurdish leader who
would say, ‘We want independence.’ Why? Because it is impossible."[7]

Some Turkish officials believe that the American government might be
protecting the PKK, in order to give its Iranian affiliate, the PJAK,
a better chance of destabilizing the Iranian government in the
Kurd-dominated areas of northwest Iran. Since the election last year
of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad it has become harder to discern what
is happening in Iranian Kurdistan. According to Murat Karayilan, the
PJAK has slowed its attacks on Iran since the Iranian bombardments
this summer, but he says that the attacks are still taking place. It
is harder still to gauge the support that the PJAK has, though, in the
words of one recent visitor to the region, Iran’s Kurds are
"transfixed by what is happening in northern Iraq, and the local
newspapers report on Barzani as much as they do on Ahmadinejad."
Several towns in Iraqi Kurdistan have growing populations of migrants
from the Kurd-ish regions of Iran.

An independent Kurdistan, even if it includes Kirkuk, would still need
the goodwill of its neighbors. The Kurds of northern Iraq are already
economically dependent on Turkey and, to a lesser extent, Iran. The
head of Diyarbakir’s chamber of commerce predicts that by the end of
this year, Turkey’s exports to the Kurdish federal region in Iraq,
particularly of food and building supplies, may total as much as $5
billion. Kirkuk’s oil flows to the Mediterranean via Turkey-when the
pipeline, which has been repeatedly sabotaged, is able to carry
it. Once the US starts withdrawing from Iraq, the Iraqi Kurds will
once again feel vulnerable to pressures from Turkey and Iran. Barzani
told The Wall Street Journal that he would welcome a deployment of
American troops to Iraqi Kurdistan-there are none at present. "It
would," he said, "be a "deterrent to intervention by the neighbouring
countries."

The US remains officially committed to Iraq’s unity, but that could
change even before George Bush leaves office. From an American
perspective, a new Kurdish state would have much to recommend it. It
would be friendly to the US, and as much of a democracy as you are
likely to find in the Middle East. But an independent Kurdistan would
probably cause Turkey to be even more repressive of its own Kurds, and
as a result its chances of entering Europe, which the US has
encouraged, will become dimmer. Iran would feel more threatened if
there is an independent Kurdistan and would be more likely to
intervene secretly and openly in Kurdish affairs. Even if they get
hold of Kirkuk, the Iraqi Kurds may find that they have much to gain
by putting off their dream of statehood for more than a few years to
come.

-January 31, 2007

Notes
[1] Cyprus was partitioned in 1974, when Turkey invaded in response to
a Greek Cypriot coup that threatened the security of the island’s
Turkish minority. In 2004, the year that Cyprus was accepted into the
European Union, Turkish Cypriots voted for reunification of the island
under a federal system; reunification was rejected by the Greek
Cypriot majority, who favor a unitary system with Turkish Cypriots
enjoying minority rights. According to Belgium’s foreign minister, the
issue of Turkey’s refusal to open its ports and airports "is being
used by countries which are actually against the accession of Turkey,
but don’t want to be caught saying that."

[2] The bill outlawing genocide denial is unlikely to be passed into
law by the French Senate, where supporters of the government, which
opposed it, are in a majority.

[3] See "Still Critical": Prospects in 2005 for Internally Displaced
Kurds in Turkey, Human Rights Watch, March 2005.

[4] There are generally reckoned to be about 27 million Kurds in this
region, of which some 15 million are in Turkey, 5 million in Iraq,
another 5 million in Iran, and 1.7 million in Syria.

[5] See Judith Miller’s interview with Barzani in The Wall Street
Journal, October 28, 2006.

[6] The Kurds have worked hard to reverse the policy of Arabization
that was murderously carried out there by Saddam Hussein. The leaders
of some of the other communities have accused them of encouraging more
Kurds to settle there than were expelled by Hussein, with the result
that Kurds are now thought to make up a clear majority in the
governorate. See Iraq and the Kurds: The Brewing Battle over Kirkuk,
International Crisis Group, July 18, 2006.

[7] Jon Lee Anderson, "Mr. Big," The New Yorker, February 5, 2007.

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http://www.nybooks.com/articles/19922

Turkey Says U.S. Armenian Bill Would Hurt Ties

TURKEY SAYS U.S. ARMENIAN BILL WOULD HURT TIES

Mediafax, Romania
Feb 11 2007

Turkey"s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul said on Saturday a planned
U.S. bill branding the mass killings of Armenians during World War
One as genocide would set back Turkish-American ties and hurt U.S.
interests, Reuters reported.

A bill recognizing the killings of as many as 1.5 million Armenians
on what is now Turkish soil in 1915 as genocide is currently before
the House of Representatives in Washington.

"(This bill) will endanger (U.S.) security interests," Gul said in
a televised speech on his return from a week-long trip to the United
States, without specifying how.

Session of Commission under CIS DM Council For Coord of AAD Issues

SESSION OF COMMISSION UNDER CIS DM COUNCIL FOR COORDINATION OF AAD
ISSUES TO BE HELD IN YEREVAN FEBRUARY 14-16

Yerevan, February 9. ArmInfo. A session of the Commission under CIS DM
Council for issues of Anti-Aircraft Defense and a training-methodical
assembly will be held in Yerevan on February 14-16.

As the RA DM’s spokesman, Seiran Shahsuvaryan, told ArmInfo, the
delegation, headed by the Commission Chairman, the Army General
Vladimir Mikhailov, will arrive in Yerevan on February 14. The same
day, the delegation will visit the Memorial of the Armenian Genocide
victims, the Tsitsernakaberd. The opening of a training-methodical
assembly will be held on February 15 in the Aviation Institute after
Marshall A. Khanperyan, after which its participants will visit the
"Erebuni" airport. A session of the Commission will be held the same
day in the Defense Ministry’s Reception House to be followed by a
press-conference. On February 16, the delegation members will visit
the military unit Choban-Kara. The delegation will leave Yerevan the
same day.

ANKARA: Gul Warns US Congress Against ‘Genocide’ Move

GUL WARNS US CONGRESS AGAINST ‘GENOCIDE’ MOVE

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Feb 7 2007

Turkey’s foreign minister has warned that strategic ties with the
United States would be poisoned if Congress passed a resolution
recognizing the 1915 massacres of Armenians as genocide.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice meets with Turkish Foreign
Minister Abdullah Gul at the State Department in Washington Abdullah
Gul, who met US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in Washington on
Tuesday, said that passage of the resolution would "spoil everything"
between the long-standing allies.

"The resolution submitted to Congress is a great threat which could
poison all our relations," he told reporters in Washington. He noted
that Turkey had "worked shoulder-to-shoulder" with the United States
in Iraq and Afghanistan and warned that the resolution was bad "as
much for Turkey as for the United States."

In a wide-ranging one-on-one meeting and working lunch, Rice and
Gul discussed the renewed moves in the US Congress to pass a law
recognizing the 1915 massacre of Armenians under the Ottoman Empire
as genocide. US officials are reassuring Gul that they will try to
quash the proposed resolution in Congress. Before her meeting with
Gul, Rice called Turkey "a strategic ally, a global partner (that)
shares our values."

State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack said, "We understand very
clearly that this is a sensitive issue not only for the Turkish people
but for the Armenian people." A number of legislatures around the
world have recognized the killing of up to 1.5 million Armenians
in Turkey during World War I as genocide. But while US President
George W. Bush commemorates the massacres each year in a speech,
his administration had stopped short of backing the genocide bills.

Turkey illustrated how seriously it takes the issue in October when
it said it would suspend military operations with France after French
lawmakers voted in October to make it a crime to deny the killings
were genocide. Gul made no such threats against the United States.

Instead he highlighted the friendship between the two countries. "We
have strategic issues of our relations based on the values," he said.

US President Bush will have to persuade the now Democrat-controlled
congress which does not need presidential approval for such a
resolution. Members behind the proposed bill have said they expect
a push by the administration and lobbyists working for the Turkish
government to keep the resolution from a full vote by the House.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who will decide whether to offer the bill
for a full vote if, as expected, it is approved by the House Foreign
Affairs Committee, has expressed support. Gul said they do not plan
to meet with Pelosi because she is "too engaged" in the issue but
he will meet with his close aides and friends to make sure Turkey’s
views are heard. Turkey rejects the genocide label and argues that
300,000 Armenians and at least as many Turks died in civil strife
when Armenians took up arms for independence in eastern Anatolia and
sided with Russian troops invading the crumbling Ottoman Empire during
World War I.

Meanwhile, a planned visit by a Turkish parliamentary delegation
to the US has been cancelled upon Gul’s request. A part of lobbying
efforts at the US Congress against a possible genocide resolution,
the Turkish Parliament’s Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Mehmet
Dulger said Gul had called him from the US to postpone the visit.

"We informed our counterparts about the postponement of our visit. I
think the Turkish mission in Washington D.C. would be overwhelmed by
the Turkish delegations’ visits one after another."

‘PKK problem needs to be resolved’ In meetings with Rice and other
officials, Gul also raised US cooperation on preventing Kurdish
separatists from using northern Iraq as a sanctuary and a base of
operations against Turkey. The Turkish government has expressed
frustration with the level of US help in rooting out terrorists of
the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), holed up in the Kurdish region of
northern Iraq.

Retired Gen. Joseph Ralston, a former NATO supreme allied commander,
has been coordinating US efforts for countering the PKK. Gul warned
against suggestions in some US political circles that Iraq could
be split into three autonomous regions, which Turkey fears would
create an independent Kurdistan in northern Iraq and embolden PKK
separatists in southeastern Turkey. "A soft partition of Iraq is a
fantasy," he said. "Iraq does not have internal boundaries."

McCormack told reporters, "General Ralston is working to decrease
those tensions on both sides of the border between the Iraqis and the
Turks. We are engaging in diplomacy so that you don’t end up with an
armed confrontation in northern Iraq. I don’t think anybody really
wants to see that."

He also noted that the United States wants to try to resolve PKK
use of Kurdish territory in northern Iraq for attacks on Turkish
territory. "Innocent people have died as result of the PKK," McCormack
said, adding that Washington wants a settlement that is acceptable to
both Turkey and Iraq. He said Rice briefed Gul on Ralston’s activities.

During Tuesday’s lunch at the State Department Rice and Gul also
exchanged views on Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey’s relationship with the
European Union and Kosovo.

Armenian Expert Considers That Kars-Akhalkalak-Tbilisi-Baku Railway

ARMENIAN EXPERT CONSIDERS THAT KARS-AKHALKALAK-TBILISI-BAKU RAILWAY WILL BE BUILT FOR ALL THAT

Noyan Tapan
Feb 06 2007

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 6, NOYAN TAPAN. "The policy of Turkey aimed
at Armenia’s isolation in the region contradicts the policy of
U.S., as the latter is against creation of dividing lines in the
region." Stepan Safarian, Head of Studies of Armenian Center for
National and International Studies, declared this in his interview to
Noyan Tapan correspondent. In his words, the project of construction
of Kars-Akhalkalak-Tbilisi-Baku railway corridor bypassing Armenia
complicates Turkish-American relations for even more. And this is the
cause of negative position to the project by the official Washington.

Last year U.S. Congress adopted a law prohibiting American banks to
finance the construction of the above mentioned railway. However, in
S.Safarian’s words, this does not mean that the construction project
will not be implemented.

Soon representatives of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan are
to meet for signing an agreement on starting construction of
Kars-Akhalkalak-Tbilisi-Baku railway in early summer of current year.

The expert reminded that during the discussion of the construction
project of Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline the West was inclined to see the
oil pipeline’s passing through the territory of Armenia as well. In
spite of this, the oil pipeline bypassed Armenia.

Meanwhile S.Safarian did not exclude that U.S. will again try to
exert great influence on Turkey by using draft Resolution N 316 to
be considered in the Congress. The draft calls on to recognize the
Armenian Genocide, which, naturally, will strengthen the positions
of Armenian lobbying for even more.

However, if Turkey "introduces some corrections into its policy
in the Near East where U.S. is currently alone against the Arab
world," the Jewish lobbying will not permit adoption of Resolution
N 316. Certainly, Armenia will suffer in this case, the isolation of
which will strengthen for even more.

The U.S.-Registered Advanced Global Investments LLC Became The New O

THE U.S.-REGISTERED ADVANCED GLOBAL INVESTMENTS LLC BECAME THE NEW OWNER OF THE CONTROLLING INTEREST OF "CONVERSE BANK"

Mediamax Agency, Armenia
Feb 5 2007

Yerevan, February 5 /Mediamax/. The owner of the controlling interest
of "Converse Bank" became the Advanced Global Investments LLC,
registered in the USA, which is owned by the Argentinean entrepreneur
of Armenian origin Eduardo Eurnekian.

As Mediamax was told in the Advanced Global Investments LLC today,
the Holy See of Echmiadzin, which was donated 5% of the shares of
"Converse Bank" by one of the previous owners, expressed the wish to
remain the share-holder together with the new owner of the bank.

"We are very happy to enter the banking sector in Armenia, by
purchasing one of the most successful and mature banks in Armenia"
said Eurnekian after the completion of the transaction.

Mediamax recalls that "Converse Bank" announced on February 1 that
Eduardo Eurnekian was the new owner of the bank.

Roland Rey Has Made Up His Mind

A1+

ROLAND REY HAS MADE UP HIS MIND
[03:37 pm] 02 February, 2007

Head of cultural center «Minora», producer and singer
Roland Rey is going to sue the authors of the TV
program «32 teeth» broadcast by the Public Television
if they do not apologize publicly.

During the January 21 program one of the authors
included Rey’s name in the so-called «Top Stupid Ten»,
alongside with several other singers.

According to Roland Rey, «32 teeth» is the stupid
version of «Comedy Club». «If they say it is their
format, then why do they speak about only several
singers? If they are doing it, let them speak about
everyone. I have never allowed them to speak about
myself».

Roland Rey has spoken to representative of «Comedy
Club» Tatiana Vichenko who accepted that the action of
the presenters was not correct. Besides, Rey was not
present in the club: according to the Russian variant,
the person who is being made fun of must be present in
the club and give his permission.

ANKARA: Turkish-Armenians’ pivotal role in Turkey’s history revealed

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Jan 31 2007

Turkish-Armenians’ pivotal role in Turkey’s history revealed

Newly revealed documents prove that there were patriotic
Armenian-Turkish citizens during the War of Independence who risked a
backlash from their community.

Prominent examples of this are Muslim Armenians Hasan and Necati, two
members of the Mim-Mim Group, which shipped arms to Anatolia from
Istanbul; naval soldier Pandikyan, an operative in the British
intelligence service who leaked classified information to Turks about
security controls; and singer Madam Blanþ, who collected money for
the Red Crescent after performances. New findings revealed by the
four-year study of Dr. Cafer Ulu opens a different and solemn window
to the Armenian problem. Ulu reveals that Armenians played a
significant role in giving the surname "Ataturk" to Mustafa Kemal,
penning a signature for him.

At a time when Anatolia was engulfed in its battle for independence,
a delegation from the Black Sea region met with Armenian David
Sahakkulu, who was working as a translator for a group monitoring the
straits set up by the occupying Allied Forces, and asked for help
with an arms shipment. He was asked to inform Turks of the Allied
forces’ guard hours and numbers in order to safely ship Turkish arms
from Istanbul to Trabzon. He was even offered money. He agreed to
help but rejected the money, saying he owed what he possessed to
Turkey and its schools. However, many other Armenians, particularly
Armenian Patriarch Zaven Efendi, were acting against the Anatolian
liberation movement at that time.
Sahakkulu is one of the Armenians who helped the self-proclaimed
Turkish government during the War of Independence between 1919-1922.
The efforts of Sahakkulu and other Armenians are important at a time
when debates over Turkish-Armenian relations are reduced to the
forced migration of Armenians in 1915, Armenian massacres and the
so-called genocide, although they have a 400-year history. Even so,
documents about such people and their activities have not been
disclosed until recently.

Armenian singer took stage with the Turkish flag
Newly revealed documents prove that there were patriotic
Armenian-Turkish citizens during the War of Independence who risked a
backlash from their community. Prominent examples of this are Muslim
Armenians Hasan and Necati, two members of the Mim-Mim Group, which
shipped arms to Anatolia from Istanbul; naval soldier Pandikyan, an
operative in the British intelligence service who leaked classified
information to Turks about security controls; and singer Madam Blanþ,
who collected money for the Red Crescent after performances.
New findings revealed by the four-year study of Dr. Cafer Ulu, a
historian from Fatih University in Ýstanbul, opens a different and
solemn window to the Armenian problem. Ulu’s findings suggest
debating the issue separately from the 1915 forced migration act. He
also reveals that Armenians played a significant role in giving the
surname `Ataturk’ to Mustafa Kemal, penning a signature for him, and
had significant involvement in linguistic studies during initial
years of the Turkish Republic.
Madam Blanþ, an Armenian-Turkish singer in the early 1920s, was known
for collecting money for soldiers at the front following every
concert she performed. She would take to the stage with Turkish
flags. The Red Crescent volunteers, which included Greek, Armenian
and Jewish girls, would collect donations, and people who had no
money would donate their jewels.
There were many non-Muslims in the Karakol Cemiyeti and Mim-Mim
Groups, two organization that shipped arms into Anatolia during the
War of Independence. Hüsamettin Ertürk, a leading figure in the War
of Independence, described the activities of Hasan and Necati: `There
were non-Muslim supporters of our cause who worked for us in the
offices of the Allied countries in Istanbul. They were working for
the lands they lived on despite the difference of religion. Necati,
who was working for the British intelligence service, was one of
these people. He spied on the British for us.’
Another patriotic Armenian was Pandikyan, who was rewarded for his
work by then-Defense Minister Marshal Fevzi Çakmak. Panidkyan was the
head of the Galata Intelligence Service, which was affiliated with
the British intelligence service, and he leaked a great deal of
information to the Turks. He contributed to releasing people detained
for supporting the Anatolian liberation movement, informing those who
were certain to be captured, returning or destroying classified
documents seized by British authorities that could be used against
the movement and smuggling ammunition and other military equipment.
Ulu noted that this was the first time such information was made
public. `The Armenian problem has so far been restricted to events in
1915. There are certainly events and players beyond those events. In
this regard, it is not appropriate to ignore or reject contributions
of Armenian-Turkish citizens during the War of Independence and after
the establishment of the republic,’ he said.

Armenian-Turks suggested `Ataturk’ surname for Mustafa Kemal
Agop Martayan Dilaçar was enlisted in the Ottoman army at the age of
19 when the World War I broke out. He first served on the Caucasus
front and later on the Damascus front when the forced migration act
was approved. He met Mustafa Kemal in Damascus. They established good
relations in the following years, and Dilaçar was appointed chief
expert at the Turkish Language Association (TDK) during the Second
Turkish Language Assembly held in August 1934. Ataturk appreciated
his contribution and gave him the surname Dilaçar in 1935.
The Armenian Church in Istanbul published an almanac titled `Turkish
Armenians in the 75th Year of the Republic.’ It is stated in the
almanac that Dilaçar suggested the surname Ataturk during a meeting
of the TDK and that it was accepted. This point is agreed on by the
majority of Armenians even though it was not revealed until recently
but only voiced by Armenians. Turkey’s second president, Ýsmet Ýnönü,
and 22 lawmakers presented a bill to the Turkish Parliament on Nov.
24, 1934 granting the surname Ataturk to Mustafa Kemal. According to
Ulu, it was Armenians who penned Ataturk’s signature. He said: `There
is no strong objection at this point. This topic was brought up by
Armenians in the past but was not explored by our researchers and
historians. Moreover, there is no point in wailing over an Armenian
citizen’s having suggested it.’

Kasým Gülek and Ecevit’s teacher was Armenian
When Mustafa Kemal expressed his wish to use Latin characters in his
signature, Hagop Vahram Çerçiyan, then-calligraphy teacher at Roberts
College, was asked to draw a signature. He prepared five different
signatures and sent them to Mustafa Kemal. Three days later, Mustafa
Kemal conveyed his thanks to Çerçiyan with a letter saying he had
chosen one of them.
Çerçiyan was famed not only for designing Mustafa Kemal’s signature
but also for teaching leading Turkish politicians. Bülent Ecevit,
Kasým Gülek, Selim Sarper, Ömer Celal and Behçet Aðaoðlu were all
instructed by Çerçiyan during his 50-year teaching career.
A decade after the establishment of the republic, there were still
opponents of Mustafa Kemal’s reforms. On Oct. 21, 1935, Mustafa
Kemal’s radical opponents were mobilized to assassinate him. The
plot, which was claimed to have been led by Çerkez Ethem, was foiled.
After the foiled plot was made public, protests were held nationwide.
There were Armenian-Turkish citizens among the protestors because the
target of the assassination attempt was the president of their
country.
Following the foiled attempt, the Armenian community in Turkey
organized a meeting at the Armenian church in the Galata district of
Istanbul. Top Armenian clerics attended the meeting and expressed
their anger at the attempt. Along with this meeting, the Armenian
community held services at all Armenian churches located in Istanbul
to express their support for Mustafa Kemal.
Ulu noted that research on this issue would deepen due to the newly
disclosed documents: `The documents we used during our studies prove
that Turkish-Armenian relations have a deep-rooted background and
show that the two societies could not be easily separated from each
other. What should be done for the future is that both sides should
express only the facts, leaving aside prejudices and fears.’

01.02.2007

HAÞÝM SÖYLEMEZ, SEDAT GÜLMEZ, Ýstanbul Today’s Zaman

GRECO – Russia becomes 44th member

The Russian Federation becomes 44th member of the Group of States
against Corruption (GRECO)

Strasbourg, 01.02.2007 – The Russian Federation has become the 44th
member State of GRECO, which now includes nearly all Council of Europe
member States, as well as the Republic of Montenegro and the United
States of America1. The Russian Federation thus joins other member
countries who have actively committed themselves to fighting corruption
by accepting to participate in the mutual evaluation process.

An evaluation team will go to Moscow during the course of 2007 to deal
with issues related to corruption in public administration, the
authorities in charge of investigating and prosecuting corruption
offences, the immunity from prosecution enjoyed by certain holders of
public office, the use of legal persons as shields for corruption and
confiscation of profits made by the perpetrators of corruption offences.

Representatives of the Russian Federation will attend GRECO’s first
plenary meeting in 2007 (19-23 March).

* * *

When presenting, on 19 May 2006, the programme of the Russian
Chairmanship of the Committee of Ministers, Sergey Lavrov, Minister of
Foreign Affairs, underlined the Russian Federation’s commitment to
"creating a common European legal space to protect individuals from
modern-day challenges". In this context, the Russian Federation stated
its support for the activities of GRECO.

The Council of Europe is also cooperating closely with the State Duma of
the Russian Federation within the framework of a project on
anti-corruption legislation (RUCOLA 2). The results of this project will
assist the Russian Federation in implementing international
anti-corruption standards and will thus complement GRECO’s work.

For more information, see
1 GRECO is an enlarged partial agreement which was created at the
Council of Europe in 1999. It currently comprises 44 members: Albania,
Andorra, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia,
Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Republic of Montenegro,
Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation,
Republic of Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, "the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia", Turkey,
Ukraine, United Kingdom and United States of America.

Press Release
Council of Europe Press Division
Ref: 079a07
Tel: +33 (0)3 88 41 25 60
Fax:+33 (0)3 88 41 39 11
[email protected]
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A political organisation set up in 1949, the Council of Europe works to
promote democracy and human rights continent-wide. It also develops
common responses to social, cultural and legal challenges in its 46
member states.

www.coe.int/greco/
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