Author: Khoyetsian Rose

Asia Times
[If the US can work with China and Russia to resolve the Iran nuclear
issue, what else can be achieved?]
By MK Bhadrakumar
February 18, 2021       
Like a bolt from the blue, the news has appeared belatedly that the US
special envoy to Iran Rob Malley initiated a call with Chinese
Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs Ma Zhaoxu on February 10.
Interestingly, the disclosure has come from the Chinese Foreign
Ministry, which said: “The two sides had an in-depth exchange of views
on the Iranian nuclear issue.”
US President Joe Biden’s administration has not yet spoken publicly
about the call. But it goes without saying that a seasoned diplomat
like Malley would have taken such an initiative involving Beijing only
with the approval at the highest level, although he has a mandate to
renew multilateral diplomatic efforts to stop Iran’s nuclear program.
It is known that Malley contacted interlocutors in the E3 – the UK,
France and Germany – and the European Union no sooner than he assumed
charge as special envoy to Iran.
There is every indication that Malley also sought Qatar’s help to
communicate with Tehran. See my Asia Times article Qatar on a mission
to break US-Iran stalemate dated February 17.
I estimated in that article the high probability that the Biden
administration would seek help from China and Russia to prevail upon
Iran to exercise self-restraint as the deadline of February 21 draws
closer and Iran’s domestic law makes it obligatory for Tehran to ask
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to stop their
activities as provided under the safeguards agreed upon in the 2015
nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The Russian Foreign Ministry has let it be known that John Kerry
contacted Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on February 13. Officially,
Kerry holds the position of US special presidential envoy for climate
in the Biden administration.
[Photo: Then US Secretary of State John Kerry (L) with Russia’s
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on July 26, 2016. The two have been
friends for many years. Photo: AFP/Hoang Dinh Nam]
Considerable influence
But it is also a fact that Kerry was the architect of the JCPOA, and
there is an old friendship between him and Lavrov that dates back to
the latter’s years as the Russian envoy to the United Nations in New
York (1994-2004).
The Biden administration is well aware that Russia and China wield
considerable influence on Iran and, equally, they were willing to be
cooperative and to leverage that influence in response to US requests
during then-president Barack Obama’s efforts to negotiate the JCPOA.
Ironically, one side effect of the “maximum pressure” policy toward
Iran pursued by the Donald Trump administration is that Tehran stepped
up its strategic communication with Moscow and Beijing to create space
to push back at the US pressure.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has paid numerous visits to
Russia and China in the most recent years to hold confidential
exchanges and finesse a coordinated approach, not only on the nuclear
issue, but on Iran’s regional strategies as a whole.
Reports suggest that Iran and China have finalized a 25-year strategic
partnership envisaging economic cooperation to the tune of US$400
billion, which is veritably an economic lifeline that Beijing is
willing to extend to Iran that would make it easier for the latter to
withstand Western pressure.
Similarly, Moscow and Tehran already began discussing arms deals after
the removal of United Nations restrictions on military cooperation
with Iran. Russia also has an interest in Iran’s energy sector and has
discussed a far-reaching economic package, including barter trade.
Again, Tehran has had a preferential trade agreement with the
Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union since October 2019, which has
significantly boosted Iran’s exports despite restrictions on banking
ties between Iran and other countries due to the US economic blockade
– so much so that the Export Guarantee Fund of Iran is now offering up
to $800 million in guarantees for exports to the EEU member states.
Second nuclear reactor
By the way, with Russian help, Iran began constructing a second
nuclear reactor at its Bushehr power plant in November 2019 – a
facility being fueled by uranium enriched further than the limits
outlined in the faltering 2015 nuclear deal with world powers – where
the new reactor to be installed – and a third reactor planned to be
built thereafter – will each add more than 1,000 megawatts to Iran’s
power grid.
Clearly, what emerges from the above is that the US’ exchanges with
Russia and China are motivated by the Biden administration’s quiet
confidence that the tense relations with these two great powers
notwithstanding, Beijing and Moscow will only play a constructive role
in addressing the situation around Iran, thanks to their commitment to
nuclear non-proliferation and reflective of their obligations as
responsible UN Security Council members who are strong advocates of
the preservation of the JCPOA.
Isn’t it fascinating that Malley called Chinese Vice Minister Ma –
responsible for international organizations and conferences,
international economy and arms control affairs – on the same day that
Biden held a two-hour conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping?
In fact, the White House readout of the conversation concluded saying:
“President Biden committed to pursuing practical, results-oriented
engagements when it advances the interests of the American people and
those of our allies.”
The Xinhua report on the conversation, in turn, highlighted Xi’s
remark to Biden that the US and China “can deliver more tangible
benefits to people in both countries, and make their due contribution
to fighting the Covid-19 pandemic, promoting world economic recovery
and maintaining regional peace and stability.”
Specifically, Xi proposed consultations on regional and international
issues and revival of the mechanisms needed.
The Iran nuclear issue has profound implications for international
security. If the US can work with China and Russia to resolve the
issue, what is it that prevents the three big powers from expanding
such cooperation to global governance and strategic stability?
The time has come for the US to jettison its “unipolar predicament.”
The Iran issue underscores that reality. Biden has set his eyes on the
reconstruction and regeneration of America, alongside which, his
legacy on the global arena lies in abandoning the path of competition
and containment as the leitmotif of his foreign policy.
*
M K Bhadrakumar is a former Indian diplomat.