Author: Khoyetsian Rose

BUSH WON’T SUPPORT ISRAELI ATTACK ON IRAN

PanARMENIAN.Net
26.09.2008 13:41 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ US president told Israeli prime minister he would
not back attack on Iran, senior European diplomatic sources said.

Israel gave serious thought this spring to launching a military strike
on Iran’s nuclear sites but was told by President George W. Bush that
he would not support it and did not expect to revise that view for
the rest of his presidency, The Guardian reports.

"The then prime minister, Ehud Olmert, used the occasion of Bush’s trip
to Israel for the 60th anniversary of the state’s founding to raise the
issue in a one-on-one meeting on May 14, the sources said. "He took it
[the refusal of a US green light] as where they were at the moment,
and that the US position was unlikely to change as long as Bush was
in office", they added.

The sources work for a European head of government who met the Israeli
leader some time after the Bush visit. Their talks were so sensitive
that no note-takers attended, but the European leader subsequently
divulged to his officials the highly sensitive contents of what Olmert
had told him of Bush’s position.

Bush’s decision to refuse to offer any support for a strike on Iran
appeared to be based on two factors, the sources said. One was US
concern over Iran’s likely retaliation, which would probably include
a wave of attacks on US military and other personnel in Iraq and
Afghanistan, as well as on shipping in the Persian Gulf.

The other was US anxiety that Israel would not succeed in disabling
Iran’s nuclear facilities in a single assault even with the use
of dozens of aircraft. It could not mount a series of attacks over
several days without risking full-scale war. So the benefits would
not outweigh the costs.

Iran has repeatedly said it would react with force to any attack. Some
western government analysts believe this could include asking Lebanon’s
Shia movement Hizbollah to strike at the US.

Even if Israel were to launch an attack on Iran without US approval its
planes could not reach their targets without the US becoming aware of
their flightpath and having time to ask them to abandon their mission.

"The shortest route to Natanz lies across Iraq and the US has total
control of Iraqi airspace", the official said. Natanz, about 100
miles north of Isfahan, is the site of an uranium enrichment plant.

In this context Iran would be bound to assume Bush had approved it,
even if the White House denied fore-knowledge, raising the prospect
of an attack against the US.

Several high-level Israeli officials have hinted over the last two
years that Israel might strike Iran’s nuclear facilities to prevent
them being developed to provide sufficient weapons-grade uranium to
make a nuclear bomb. Iran has always denied having such plans.

Olmert himself raised the possibility of an attack at a press
conference during a visit to London last November, when he said
sanctions were not enough to block Iran’s nuclear program.

"Economic sanctions are effective. They have an important impact
already, but they are not sufficient. So there should be more. Up to
where? Up until Iran will stop its nuclear program," he said.

The revelation that Olmert was not merely saber-rattling to try to
frighten Iran but considered the option seriously enough to discuss
it with Bush shows how concerned Israeli officials had become.

Bush’s refusal to support an attack, and the strong suggestion he would
not change his mind, is likely to end speculation that Washington
might be preparing an "October surprise" before the US presidential
election. Some analysts have argued that Bush would back an Israeli
attack in an effort to help John McCain’s campaign by creating an
eve-of-poll security crisis.

Others have said that in the case of an Obama victory, the
vice-president, Dick Cheney, the main White House hawk, would want
to cripple Iran’s nuclear program in the dying weeks of Bush’s term.

During Saddam Hussein’s rule in 1981, Israeli aircraft successfully
destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak shortly before it was due
to start operating.

Last September they knocked out a buildings complex in northern Syria,
which US officials later said had been a partly constructed nuclear
reactor based on a North Korean design. Syria said the building was
a military complex but had no links to a nuclear program.

In contrast, Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are officially described
as intended only for civilian purposes, are dispersed around the
country and some are in fortified bunkers underground.

In public, Bush gave no hint of his view that the military option
had to be excluded. In a speech to the Knesset the following day he
confined himself to telling Israel’s parliament: "America stands with
you in firmly opposing Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. Permitting
the world’s leading sponsor of terror to possess the world’s deadliest
weapon would be an unforgivable betrayal of future generations. For the
sake of peace, the world must not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon."

Three weeks after Bush’s red light, on June 2, Israel mounted a
massive air exercise covering several hundred miles in the eastern
Mediterranean. It involved dozens of warplanes, including F-15s,
F-16s and aerial refueling tankers.

The size and scope of the exercise ensured that the US and other
nations in the region saw it, said a US official, who estimated the
distance was about the same as from Israel to Natanz.

A few days later, Israel’s deputy prime minister, Shaul Mofaz, told
the paper Yediot Ahronot: "If Iran continues its program to develop
nuclear weapons, we will attack it. The window of opportunity has
closed. The sanctions are not effective. There will be no alternative
but to attack Iran in order to stop the Iranian nuclear program."

The exercise and Mofaz’s comments may have been designed to boost
the Israeli government and military’s own morale as well, perhaps,
to persuade Bush to reconsider his veto. Last week Mofaz narrowly
lost a primary within the ruling Kadima party to become Israel’s
next prime minister. Tzipi Livni, who won the contest, takes a less
hawkish position.

The US announced two weeks ago that it would sell Israel 1,000
bunker-busting bombs. The move was interpreted by some analysts as a
consolation prize for Israel after Bush told Olmert of his opposition
to an attack on Iran. But it could also enhance Israel’s attack
options in case the next US president revives the military option.

The guided bomb unit-39 (GBU-39) has a penetration capacity equivalent
to a one-tonne bomb. Israel already has some bunker-busters," the
article says.

OPPOSITION RALLY TO BE HELD IN NORTHERN AVENUE

A1+
[05:15 pm] 24 September, 2008

The Armenian National Congress has already notified the Yerevan
City Hall about the upcoming rally and march on September 26. The
City Hall rejected the notification with a groundless and fake
excuse. The leitmotif of the coming rally is the local election in
Kentron district.

The candidate of the Armenian National Congress Ararat Zurabyan who
stands for the district head of Kentron commune, has also applied
to the City Hall to hold a pre-election meeting with his voters on
September 26. Violating the Election Code, the City Hall declined
that notification as well. We do not accept these rejections as they
violate the constitutional rights of Armenian citizens and the rights
set down in the Declaration on Human Rights. We will exercise our
rights and hold the rally on September 26.

Dear compatriots, We will not allow any provocations. At the same time
we have the opportunity to respond to the toughness of the regime
by the solution of a problem which has become highly important in
the given conditions. We aim to win the local elections in Kentron
commune. The Armenian National Congress and its candidate Ararat
Zurabyan have every possibility to win. The victory will be of a
great psychological importance and will change not only the internal
political and psychological atmosphere but also the correlation of
forces in a short period of time.

We certainly do not doubt that the government will try to use their
arsenal of illegalities, but we are also convinced that our force
is enough to curb illegalities, reduce their effect, and reveal the
real outcome of vote. This possibility cannot be missed. Therefore,
considering the exceptional political importance of the election,
the Armenian National Congress appeals to its supporters all
over the country: Contact your relatives, friends, acquaintances
living in the district and ask them to vote for Ararat Zurabyan on
September 28. Visit the election offices of our candidate and offer
your help. Participate in Ararat Zurabyan’s pre-election rally due
at 6 pm, SEPTEMBER 26 in NORTHERN AVENUE.

Armenian Assembly of America
1140 19th Street, NW, Suite 600
Washington, DC 20036
Phone: 202-393-3434
Fax: 202-638-4904
Email: [email protected]
Web:

PRESS RELEASE

September 22, 2008
Contact: Michael A Zachariades
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (202) 393-3434

NGOs SELECTED FOR COALITION BUILDING PROGRAM

Washington, DC – The League of Women Voters (LWV), the Armenian
Assembly of America (Assembly) and the NGO Center, Civil Society
Development Organization (NGOC) are pleased to announce the selection
of six NGOs to participate in the launch of a Coalition Building
education program for local non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in
southern Armenia.

The goal of this program is to provide and expand on existing skill
sets for effective coalition and cross-sector coalition
building. Through a series of focused coaching sessions, homework
assignments, and team-building exercises, NGO representatives will
learn how to build and maintain coalitions and work together to
effectively advocate for positive change in their communities.

Selection Committee members met earlier this month to review the
applications. Six NGOs were selected. Each NGO will send two
representatives to participate in the three, two-week sessions to be
held in September, October and November, in Yeghegnadzor, in Armenia’s
Vayots Dzor Region. LWV Deputy Director Zaida Arguedas, Assembly
Country Director Arpi Vartanian and NGOC Trainer/Consultant and
Program Coordinator Hripsime Nazaretyan, extend their thanks to fellow
Selection Committee Members from the Armenian Young Women’s
Association/Yerevan, Counterpart International, National Democratic
Institute and OSCE/Yerevan, for their active participation and
support.

Of the six NGOs selected, four are from the Vayots Dzor Region and two
are from the Syunik Region. Within their own communities, all of the
NGOs selected have specific areas of concern, ranging from health and
social issues to education and cultural issues, to human rights, to
overcoming stereotypes, to garbage collection, to issues of the
disabled, and more. By forming coalitions, NGOs can work with each
other and their local communities to overcome these issues.

Vartanian remarked, "I’d like to extend my thanks to our Selection
Committee for their valuable input and support, which is helping this
project move forward. Each of the NGOs that will participate in this
project has something important to offer to the program. Upon
successfully graduating this course, they will be part of a core group
of NGOs that will lay the foundations in southern Armenia for
effective cross-sector coalitions and partnerships."

NGOs Selected

Syunik Disabled People Support Organization, Voghji, advocates for the
rights of those with special needs, and assists the integration of the
disabled into society by addressing their social, legal, education,
and health related issues.

The Women’s Association of Kapan, promotes gender equality and the
active participation of women in the public, political, economic and
social issues in the Syunik Region.

Huys-98 (Hope-98) NGO, from Vayk, concentrates primarily on issues in
the social, cultural, health and education sectors by providing
consultations on social, psychological, and legal issues and
organizing community development activities.

Fund Against Violation of Law, Vayk Branch, works primarily in the
legal sector, supporting the establishment of democracy and peace
building initiatives, through community development, to victims of war
and violence, in particular, refugees, former hostages, war prisoners,
etc.

Fund Against Violation of Law, Yeghegnadzor Branch, working in the
Vayots Dzor, Syunik, and Gegharkunik regions of Armenia, addresses
legal, community development, health, and youth issues. Services are
provided to victims of war, ethnic minorities, and others whose rights
have been violated.

The Armenian Young Women’s Association, Yeghegnadzor Branch, focuses
on advocacy, service delivery, education and overcoming
stereotypes. AYWA’s mission is to enhance the status of and encourage
the participation of young women in public, political, economic,
educational, cultural and other fields, by working with young women
and men.

Nazaretyan, long-time Trainer and Consultant with the NGO Center, is
the Program Coordinator for this program. As a Trainer with the NGOC
since its establishment in 1994 as a project of the Assembly, she
brings a wealth of experience to this project. The NGOC’s goal is to
promote democracy through civil society development. In 2005, the NGOC
registered as a separate, local entity, and continues to work with
NGOs and other elements of civil society.

Arguedas also remarked "I like to thank all those who have joined us
to make this project a possibility. This program commences on
September 22, and we look forward to all its success to the region and
Armenia." Arguedas will be in Armenia from September 18 – October 4.

This project is made possible through the collective efforts of the
League of Women Voters of the United States, the Armenian Assembly of
America and the NGO Center Civil Society Development NGO. Funding for
this project has been provided in the form of a grant to the League of
Women Voters by private donors and Assembly Trustees Charles Talanian
and Peter Vosbikian.

The NGOC was established in 1994, as a project of the Armenian
Assembly of America to promote democracy through civil society
development. In 2005, it registered as a separate, local entity in
Armenia. Targeting NGOs, community based organizations (CBOs), civic
action groups (CAGs) and other elements of civil society, the NGO
Center continues to help them in their efforts to develop a strong NGO
sector in Armenia.

The League of Women Voters, a nonpartisan political organization,
encourages informed and active participation in government, works to
increase understanding of major public policy issues, and influences
public policy through education and advocacy. Membership in the League
is open to men and women of all ages. With more than 88 years of
experience and 850 local and state affiliates, the League is one of
America’s most trusted grassroots organizations.

Established in 1972, the Armenian Assembly is the largest
Washington-based nationwide organization promoting public
understanding and awareness of Armenian issues. It is a 501(c)(3)
tax-exempt membership organization.

###

NR#2008-067

Editor’s Note: Photo can be viewed by following this link:
s/PR_-_2008/Sept/Selection-Committee-16-ECWB.jpg

Photo Caption: L to R – Alex Sardar, Counterpart International; Lilit
Asatryan, Armenian Young Women’s Youth Association; Tsovinar
Harutiunyan, OSCE; Hripsime Nazaretyan, NGO Center Civil Society
Development Organization; Inga Kirakosyan, National Democratic
Institute and Arpi Vartanian, Armenian Assembly of America

ORANGE HAS INTENTION OF LONG-TERM OPERATION IN ARMENIA, OFFICIAL OF
COMPANY SAYS

Y EREVAN, SEPTEMBER 19, NOYAN TAPAN. It is important how many
subscribers Orange company will have during the first year of its
operation in Armenia. Given the fact that France Telecom has long-term
operation plans in Armenia, the circumstance of having the maximum
number of subscribers in the long run by providing high quality
services is even more important, NT correspondent was informed by
Jean-Michel Serre, the chief deputy president for business development
in Europe, Eurasia and America of France Telecom group’s Orange
company. Orange is among the three companies that have passed to the
final stage of the government-held tender for a third mobile phone
communication operator in Armenia.

According to him, in the 40 days that remain for submitting a final
tender proposal, the company will conduct additional technical studies,
based on the results of which it will be announced how much time it
will take for Orange to introduce the mobile communication service
provision system and how much it will cost.

He assured NT correspondent that France Telecom has experience of
introducing new services of a mobile communication operator in various
countries, and sufficient resources which it will invest in Armenia in
case of winning the tender. In this case Orange will introduce the
2G/3G mobile communication service system, as well as Internet services
through mobile communication in Armenia, after which studies will be
done to determine the opportunities of providing other services, in
particular broadband Internet services.

Discussing Armenia’s legislative field and business practice in the
communication sector, J-M. Serre said: "I do not see any serious
problems at the moment. If problems arise in a country, we use our
experience and the necessary resources to deal with them. We have
introduced mobile communication networks in about 30 countries. Each
country has its own difficulties. I do not remember a case when we
failed to overcome a problem."

He also explained that the assortment of services to be included in
Orange’s package of mobile communication services depends on the market
of the given country. For example, in some countries the company
provides broadband Internet services (including to households), as well
as mobile and fixed-line phone services, so the package contains a wide
range of services as compared with countries where only mobile
communication services are provided.

It was mentioned that Orange builds broadband Internet service
provision networks by using nearly 30 technologies, which are
introduced in different combinations in different countries, even in
different areas of the same country or city – depending on local
conditions. According to J.-M. Serre, France Telecom has 4 thousand
experts working worldwide. They decide what combination of new
technologies and services has to be introduced in the given place. In
some countries Orange combines broadband Internet service provision by
itself and retail providers, while in others either of these ways is
used. Besides, there are countries where Orange uses channels of other
operators. In particular, in France where France Telecom provides
fixed-line phone services, Orange delivers broadband, 8 megabit/sec
Internet services by a prepayment-unlimited use system. In some other
countries services are provided by received and transferred data
volumes.

The official of Orange company told NT correspondent that every six
months France Telecom organizes shows of its services, every time
displaying about 20 new services. He added that Orange Business Service
package services are already availabale in Armenia, while official
presence of Orange company in Armenia will allow to promote and expand
their use.

J.-M. Serre said that wherever France Telecom starts its activities, it
becomes an industrial partner of the given state if its government
proposes some projects.

According to website, France Telecom group of companies
has 174 million users in 28 developed and developing countrues, with
two thirds of them being users of Orange’s services. The gross sales of
the group made 52.9 bln euros in 2007 and 26.3 bln euros in the first
half of 2008. As of June 30, 2008, France Telecom had 113.8 million
mobile communication subscribers and 12 million ADSL broadband Internet
service users. France Telecom is in third place in the world by its
sales in the mobile communication sector and in first place by sales in
Internet sector. It is the world leader in Internet phone connection
and television sectors.

TURQUIE-ARMENIE: BRUXELLES PRONE LA NORMALISATION DES RELATIONS

RIA Novosti
16 Sept 2008
Russie

BRUXELLES, 16 septembre – RIA Novosti. Sur fond d’embellie entre
l’Armenie et la Turquie, l’Union europeenne prône la normalisation
des relations bilaterales, a declare lundi a Bruxelles Jean-Pierre
Jouyet, secretaire d’Etat francais aux Affaires europeennes, dont le
pays preside actuellement l’UE.

"Nous esperons la normalisation des relations", a-t-il confie lors
d’un point presse a Bruxelles, où se deroule une reunion entre la
Troïka ministerielle de l’UE et la Turquie.

M. Jouyet a qualifie de "geste historique" la presence du president
turc Abdullah Gul lors d’un match football opposant les selections
des deux pays dans le cadre des qualifications pour le Mondial-2010
debut septembre, donnant lieu a des negociations entre les leaders.

"Cette visite est un geste plus que symbolique, c’est un geste
historique", a-t-il affirme.

Les relations diplomatiques entre la Turquie et l’Armenie sont
inexistantes et la frontière est fermee depuis 1993 a l’initiative
d’Ankara. La partie turque estime que le règlement du conflit du
Haut-Karabakh et l’abandon de la part de l’Armenie de la demande de
reconnaissance politique internationale du genocide armenien dans
l’Empire ottoman pendant la première guerre mondiale, pourraient
contribuer au retablissement des relations entre les deux pays.

–Boundary_(ID_gnQusFDKM9TnpAI9Y9KW4g)–

LOSSES SUSTAINED BY ARMENIA IN GEORGIAN – SOUTH-OSSETIAN CONFLICT EXCEED 680MLN USD

ARKA
Sep 18, 2008

YEREVAN, September 18. /ARKA/. Losses sustained by Armenia in Georgian
– South-Ossetian conflict exceeded 680mln USD, Secretary of Armenia’s
Security Council Artur Baghdasaryan told journalists.

He pointed out the goods that have not arrived in Armenia or have not
been imported from the country and the economic damage on the whole.

According to Baghdasaryan, the Armenian authorities managed to respond
to the situation in a balanced manner and to prevent serious shocks
through intense work and everyday contacts with the security councils
of Georgia and Russia.

YEREVAN PRESS CLUB WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

SEPTEMBER 12-18, 2008

HIGHLIGHTS:

RA PRESIDENT SIGNED THE ADDITION TO THE BROADCAST LAW

PRIME MINISTER HAS A NEW PRESS-SECRETARY

ARMENIAN JOURNALIST RECEIVES GLOBAL SHINING LIGHT AWARD-2008

RADIO "VAN" WINS POPOV AWARD FOR THE FIFTH TIME

RA PRESIDENT SIGNED THE ADDITION TO THE BROADCAST LAW

On September 12 the President of Armenia Serge Sargsian signed the RA Law
"On Introducing an Addition to the RA Law ‘On Television and Radio’",
according to which the conductance of broadcast licensing competitions is
suspended till July 20, 2010. As it has been reported, the draft was
approved by the RA Government on August 28, was publicized only on September
8, the day the autumn session of the RA National Assembly opened, and was
adopted through a quickened procedure on September 10. The day before, on
September 9, five journalistic associations of the country called on the
deputies to vote against the draft. The signatories qualified the actions of
the Government as another proof that "its initiatives in media domain are
aimed not at ensuring the constitutional right to free receipt and
dissemination of information, not at the improvement of the domain, not at
the implementation of the commitments to the Council of Europe and
recommendations of PACE resolutions, but at retaining and strengthening the
total control over broadcasters, currently practiced" (see details in YPC
Weekly Newsletter, September 5-11, 2008).

Addition to the broadcast law will be enforced on the tenth day after the
official publication, that is, on September 27.

PRIME MINISTER HAS A NEW PRESS-SECRETARY

On September 13 Diana Mnatsakanian, previously the Head of the International
Affairs Department of the Public TV and Radio Company of Armenia, was
appointed to the position of the Press Secretary of the RA Prime Minister
Tigran Sargsian. Previously the functions of a press secretary were
performed by the Head of the Department of Public Relations and Information
of the RA Government Mary Harutiunian.

ARMENIAN JOURNALIST RECEIVES GLOBAL SHINING LIGHT AWARD-2008

On September 13 at the Global Investigative Journalism Conference in
Lillehammer, Norway, the winners of the Global Shining Light Award-2008 were
announced. The winner of the first prize was journalist from Sri Lanka
Sonali Samarasinghe. The second place was taken by the Chairman of
"Investigative Journalists" NGO, the Chief Editor of "Hetq" online
publication Edik Baghdasarian. The Armenian journalist was awarded for the
cycle of articles, published in "Hetq" in 2007, devoted to the activities of
the then RA Minister of Nature Protection Vardan Ayvazian, who issued his
family and staff licenses to develop over a dozen of mines, most of which
held gold or polymetallic resources.

The Global Shining Light Award was established in 2007 for investigative
journalists of developing or transitional countries that reported under
threat, duress or in the direst of conditions.

RADIO "VAN" WINS POPOV AWARD FOR THE FIFTH TIME

On September 12 in Tomsk the ceremony of International Popov Award in radio
broadcasting was held. The Award was established in 1998 by the Russian
Benevolent Fund of Broadcasting Development. This year in 14 nominations of
the competition the Russian-language radio stations of Russia, Belarus and
Armenia took part.

In the nomination "Specialized Program" the winner was "Genocide" program of
"Van" radio company of Yerevan. Notably, Radio "Van" has been taking part in
the competition since 2003 and wins the Award for the fifth time.

When reprinting or using the information above, reference to the Yerevan
Press Club is required.

You are welcome to send any comment and feedback about the Newsletter to:
[email protected]

Subscription for the Newsletter is free. To subscribe or unsubscribe from
this mailing list, please send a message to: [email protected]

Editor of YPC Newsletter – Elina POGHOSBEKIAN
_____________________________________ _______
Yerevan Press Club
9B, Ghazar Parpetsi str.
0002, Yerevan, Armenia
Tel.: (+ 374 10) 53 00 67; 53 35 41; 53 76 62
Fax: (+374 10) 53 56 61
E-mail: [email protected]
Web Site:

ARMENTEL RECOGNIZED DOMINATING FIXED-LINE TELEPHONY OPERATOR IN ARMENIA

ArmInfo
2008-09-17 14:00:00

ArmInfo. Public Services Regulatory Commission (PSRC) of Armenia
recognized ArmenTel the dominating fixed-line telephony operator in
Armenia Wednesday.

Head of PSRC Telecommunication Office Gevorg Gevorgyan presented
the draft decision of the Commission and outlined that the decision
is based on the Articles No.22 and 23 of the RA Law ‘On electronic
communication’ stipulating that e-communication operator is dominating
if it does not face any serious competition in the market or occupies
over the third of the market. G. Gevorgyan said that the notification
about PSRC’s intention to recognize CJSC ArmenTel the dominating
operator of fixed-line telephony services throughout the Republic of
Armenia was sent to the Company on 8 May 2008.

Thus, ArmenTel CJSC is to provide data on network resources, the
number of free leased lines for Internet operators, Gevorgyan said.

RUSSIA’S STANCE ON GARABAGH ‘UNCHANGED’

AzerNews Weekly
Sept 17 2008
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan was assured on Tuesday that Russia has not altered its
position on the Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh conflict, despite Moscow`s
recent recognition of two Georgian rebel regions that raised fears that
it can no longer act as an impartial mediator in regional disputes.

The over a decade-long Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict was high on agenda
of talks between Russian and Azerbaijani Presidents Dmitry Medvedev
and Ilham Aliyev outside Moscow on Tuesday.

"I confirmed that Russia`s stance remains unchanged, voiced support for
further direct talks between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents,
and assured President Aliyev that we will continue providing the needed
assistance in seeking a mutually acceptable solution," Medvedev said
after hosting his Azerbaijani counterpart in the Meindorf residence.

Russia co-chairs the OSCE Minsk Group brokering Garabagh settlement,
along with the United States and France.

Aliyev said that despite a very complicated situation in the region,
"there are good pre-conditions for improving it."

"If the Garabagh problem finds its solution, new prospects will open
up for good cooperation," he said.

The Azerbaijani leader emphasized that Baku and Moscow were maintaining
high-level relations that could set an example for other regional
states. "If everyone enjoyed such good neighborliness ties as
Russia and Azerbaijan, there would not be any conflicts, and any
misunderstanding altogether."

Aliyev said there was a need for joining effort in bolstering peace
and stability in the region.

The Azerbaijani and Russian leaders also discussed economic
cooperation. Medvedev said the Russian-Azerbaijani trade is to reach
$2 billion by the end of 2008.

"We are content with our partnership. The goals we have outlined during
my visit to Baku [early in July] are being reached, and I hope that we
will achieve the trade turnover target of $2 billion by the year-end,
although the economic situation is not that favorable," Medvedev said.

Aliyev stressed that bilateral trade was rapidly developing and its
structure was improving. "We are pleased with the development of our
cooperation, which is encompassing very broad ranges."

Expectations from Moscow visit

Russia has a plethora of questions regarding Azerbaijan. Although Baku
avoided direct involvement in the military conflict in neighboring
Georgia last month, this does not answer all of these questions or
meet all of Russia`s demands. Moscow is expecting the South Caucasus
republic, which maintained partial neutrality on the issue, to put
forth a more clear-cut stance.

Following a brief war with Georgia early in August, President Medvedev
signed a decree on August 26 recognizing the independence of Georgia`s
rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The move heightened
tensions in the volatile Caucasus region and put a further strain
on Moscow`s relations with the West. Tbilisi, the U.S. and numerous
European powers condemned the move.

Meanwhile, tensions remain high in the region. Unlike the West,
Russia tends to take action first and then tries to gain potential
allies. Now, Russia says the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
is irreversible. Furthermore, it has pledged to forge diplomatic
relations with the rebel regions soon and is stationing military
contingent in the regions instead of peacekeeping forces.

Thus, Russia`s persistence is evident. But the West is not idle
either. NATO members are convening in Tbilisi, and an attempt is
being made to set up a Georgia-NATO council.

Russia`s problems are not confined to the prospect of Georgia`s
admission to the alliance. Its close ally, Armenia, is facing
isolation. In addition to that, Russia, despite shattered confidence
in its mission on brokering Garabagh settlement, is unwilling to give
up its position in the mediating Minsk Group.

Russia, which is losing ground in the South Caucasus, is seeking
new strongholds and allies. But the situation leaves a lot to be
desired. Even CIS states maintaining close ties with Russia are
unwilling to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,
and it is futile to expect this step from Azerbaijan as well. Baku
has repeatedly said it was firm on supporting Georgia`s territorial
integrity.

It is likely that Russia will now attempt to weaken Azerbaijan`s
relations with Georgia as much as it can. However, these ties are so
deep that dealing a blow upon them will prove a daunting task. Oil
transportation routes, the regional group GUAM that comprises both
countries, and a railway line that is being built are all factors
strengthening these bonds.

It is also possible that Russia will prompt Azerbaijan to sell gas to
Georgia for a higher price, and the gas supplies issue will, overall,
be a key issue during talks. Additionally, Russia stands firmly on
its proposal to buy the entire bulk of gas produced by Azerbaijan.

Furthermore, Azerbaijan`s integration with NATO is closely followed
by its northern neighbor, although Baku is acting cautiously in this
regard. This carefulness does not stem merely from geo-political
reasons. In general, Azerbaijan is exercising caution in its Western
integration, and some authoritarian tendencies within the country
are holding back these efforts. Now, Russia is leveraging the most
support from Belarus and a number of authoritarian Central Asian
republics. Aspiring democracies Ukraine and Georgia are now seceding
from CIS — the same way the Baltic states once pulled out of the
organization`s predecessor, Soviet Union — in what analysts describe
as the so-called "second collapse" of the USSR.

Most likely, Azerbaijan`s hesitation will do nothing to accelerate
NATO`s unfolding advent to the region. Russia continues to assert
that it is exercising a fair approach to the Garabagh problem, but
this appears as promises with no guarantees. Moscow will keep making
these statements only as long as Azerbaijan remains in its sphere of
influence and Garabagh diplomacy proceeds under its scenario. It is
possible that as time elapses, Russia will toughen its military and
geo-political demands to Azerbaijan, although the balance of forces
in the region is changing.

But the changing balance and NATO`s interference in the region may
prompt Russia to seek expansion of its limited military alliance. Then,
it may demand that Azerbaijan join the Collective Security Treaty
Organization, a bloc of former Soviet republics, which would
essentially restrict the country`s independence.

In any case, this possibility should not be ruled out. If NATO moves
to spread its clout in the strategically-important region, Russia
will try to create a reliable military circle around itself, and,
in doing so, it will appeal to other CIS states.

In any case scenario, Moscow`s friendship is unlikely to bring any
benefits. Past experience suggests that in its relations with the
former Soviet republics, Russia has been failing to relinquish its
empire-like ambitions.

NOVRUZ MAMMADOV: ‘ALL THE INITIATIVES FOR THE RESTORATION OF PEACE AND SECURITY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS CAN ONLY BE REALIZED THROUGH THE KARABAKH SETTLEMENT’

Day.az
Sept 16 2008
Azerbaijan

16 September: A Day.az interview with the head of the foreign relations
department of the Azerbaijani Presidential Executive Staff, Novruz
Mammadov.

[Correspondent] Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has flown to Moscow
for the talks with Russian counterpart Dmitriy Medvedev scheduled
to take place on Tuesday [16 September]. What is your comment on
the visit?

[Mammadov] The visit is taking place at the invitation of the Russian
president. I think that in the course of this visit, there will be
comprehensive exchange of opinions on mutual relations and regional
problems against the backdrop of the latest events in the region. There
is a need for this.

[Correspondent] After the notorious events in Georgia, Turkey and other
states have come up with various initiatives for the strengthening
of peace and stability in the South Caucasus region. Can those
initiatives have a wholesome effect on the process of settling the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict around the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict?

[Mammadov] We exactly count on it that, all these initiatives, all
these proposals for the restoration of peace, stability and security
in the South Caucasus can be realized through the settlement of the
Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. Nothing can be achieved without it. And
the head of our state has channelled all resources inside and outside
the country exactly for this end. No talk is possible without it.

[Correspondent] Can the latest events in Georgia have any consequences
on the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict or they do not
depend on each other?

[Mammadov] Sometimes, negative consequences of some events have
positive and constructive impact on other issue. In this context,
it is possible. Nevertheless, it is difficult to speak ahead of time.

[Correspondent] Azerbaijan’s neighbours in the South Caucasus
distinguish themselves categorically with unambiguousness of the
foreign policies: if the president of Georgia has unambiguously
oriented to the West, then Armenia to Russia. What dividends can
Azerbaijan gain from its multi-vector policy?

[Mammadov] I want to highlight this point: small states should not
conduct such a policy, it is always fraught with national catastrophe
and tragedy. That’s it. We know this very well and therefore,
the conception of the foreign policy course, founded by [former]
President Heydar Aliyev, is the most exemplary, wise and far-sighted
up until now.