Press Freedom In Turkey

PRESS FREEDOM IN TURKEY

EuropeNews, Denmark

April 30 2008

With heightened polarization regarding issues of secularism,
nationalism, and separatism, reform efforts toward enhanced freedom of
expression stalled in 2007. The restrictive measures of the new Turkish
penal code, which came into force in June 2005, continued to overshadow
and undermine positive reforms achieved in the country’s effort to meet
European Union (EU) membership requirements, including a new Press Law
in 2004 that replaced prison sentences with fines. The EU accession
process and perceptions that the ruling Justice and Development Party
intends to undermine the country’s secular traditions have prompted
a nationalist movement that is driving a legalistic crackdown on free
expression by journalists and writers.

Status: Partly Free

Legal Environment: 20

Political Environment: 20

Economic Environment: 11

Total Score: 51

Constitutional provisions for freedom of the press and of expression
exist but are matched with provisions that restrict it and, in
practice, are only partially upheld. According to Bianet, a Turkish
press freedom organization, the number of prosecuted journalists,
publishers, and activists dropped to 254 in 2007 from 293 in 2006
(after a dramatic jump from 157 in 2005).

Yet the same organization reports that 55 individuals were tried over
the year under the penal code’s especially controversial Article 301
alone. This provision allows for prison terms of six months to three
years for "the denigration of Turkishness" and has been used to charge
journalists for crimes such as stating that genocide was committed
against the Armenians in 1915, discussing the division of Cyprus,
or writing critically on the security forces.

Book publishers, translators, and intellectuals have also faced
prosecution for "insulting Turkish identity." In January, Hrant
Dink–editor-in-chief of the Armenian weekly Agos, who was prosecuted
for a second time under Article 301 in July 2006 for confirming his
recognition of Armenian genocide allegations–was the victim of a
carefully plotted assassination carried out by a 17 year old. Charges
against Dink under Article 301 were subsequently dropped, but both
his son and the owner of Agos were convicted on the same charges for
the same case in October.

In November, two policemen were charged with knowing about plans
to kill Dink and failing to report it; the trials of all 19 people
charged in connection with the murder were ongoing at year’s end.

Article 277 of the penal code was invoked in 2007 to charge 14 people
with "attempting to influence court decisions." Article 216 penalizes
"inflaming hatred and hostility among peoples" and is most frequently
used against journalists who write about the Kurdish population or
are perceived to degrade the armed forces.

23 people were charged on this count in 2007 and, in May 2007, a court
of appeal overturned the prior acquittal of two professors charged
under this article in 2005 for a report in which they discussed the
term "citizenship of Turkey" as it relates to minorities, a concept
being debated in preparation for a new "civil" constitution. The
court ruled that the discussion constituted a "social danger" and more
specifically, "… a danger to the unitary state and the indivisibility
of the nation." Nationalist lawyers groups, such as the Great Lawyers’
Union, credited by many human rights groups for leading the push for
prosecutions, continued to bring insult suits over the year.

Despite a September 2006 declaration of commitment by Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan to revise Article 301 and heightened pressure
from international press freedom watchdog groups to abolish it
following Dink’s murder, no progress was made by year’s end; many
believe the government dropped the issue in the context of election
concerns. Erdogan himself continued to launch a number of defamation
suits against members of the media; in October, newly elected President
Abdullah Gul promised changes in the period ahead.

Convictions against journalists are made much less frequently than
are prosecutions, but trials are time-consuming and expensive. A
total of six convictions were made for charges under Article 301 in
2007 (nine were acquitted). In a positive development, the Supreme
Court of Appeals confirmed a lower court’s prior decision to drop
the Article 301 case against Turkish writer Orhan Pamuk in August.

While Bianet also reports that the number of threats and attacks on the
press increased in 2007, threats and harassment remain significantly
more prevalent than acts of violence. The Dink assassination marked
the culmination of a deliberate plot believed to be developed by
nationalist forces, or the "deep state"–a vague network involving
members of the state bureaucracy, military and intelligence apparatus.

It was not a popular or commonplace crime, and journalists’ work is
not regularly compromised by fears of violence. Instability in the
southeastern part of the country does infringe upon journalists’
freedom to work, however.

In April, three employees of a Christian publishing house in the
Malatya province of southeastern Turkey were brutally murdered and
a newspaper owner was killed in the southeastern province of Van
in September, though no evidence proved the murder to be related to
freedom of the press. The issue of police violence against journalists
was raised by the abduction, assault, and death threats against
journalist Sinan Tekpetek by police in Istanbul in late July.

June 2006 amendments to the Antiterror Law allow for imprisoning
journalists for up to three years for the dissemination of statements
and propaganda by terrorist organizations. The new legislation raises
concerns that the broad definition of terrorism could allow for
arbitrary prosecutions, particularly for members of the pro-Kurdish
press who are sometimes charged with collaborating with the Kurdish
Workers Party (PKK). According to Bianet, 83 people were charged in
cases of "terrorism" over the year.

The Supreme Council of Radio and Television, whose members are elected
by the Parliament, has the authority to sanction broadcasters if they
are not in compliance with the law or its expansive broadcasting
principles. It is frequently subject to political pressure. Some
editors and journalists practice self-censorship out of fear of
violating legal restrictions, and Turkish press freedom advocates
contend that self-censorship has become more prevalent as a result
of the onslaught of prosecutions under the new penal code.

Owner of the weekly Nokta magazine stopped its publication in April
after the magazine’s investigative articles on the military prompted
a police raid on its offices. Charged with spreading PKK propaganda
under the Anti-Terrorism Law, the Gundem newspaper was suspended for
15-30 day periods four times over the year. Broadcasting bans were
reportedly issued against a few stations during the pre-election
period, and the government censored coverage of PKK attacks in
southeastern Turkey in October.

Media are highly concentrated in four major conglomerates, which
subtly pressure their editors and journalists to refrain from reporting
that will harm their business interests. This could include avoiding
criticism of the government or potential advertisers, both of which
could have contracts with other arms of the companies.

Turkey’s broadcast media are well developed, with hundreds of
private television channels, including cable and satellite as well
as commercial radio stations.

State television and radio provide limited broadcasting in minority
languages, now including four local radio and television stations in
Kurdish. This marks a major step forward for freedom of expression,
although critics say that the broadcasts are too restricted and quality
is poor. The quality of Turkish media is low with a greater prevalence
of columns and opinion articles than pure news, but independent
domestic and foreign print media are able to provide diverse views,
including criticism of the government and its policies. An estimated
22.5 percent of the Turkish population accessed the internet in 2007.

The video-sharing web site, YouTube was blocked in March and again in
September for airing videos perceived to insult government leaders and
founder of the Turkish republic, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. [Editors note:
Turkey also blocked WordPress.]

http://europenews.dk/en/node/9741

8.8 Percent Economic Growth In 2007

8.8 PERCENT ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 2007

KarabakhOpen
30-04-2008 11:43:34

On April 29 the NKR National Assembly kicked off the discussion of
the annual report on the performance of the state budget in 2007.

The authorized representative of the government Nver Baghdasaryan,
the deputy minister of finance, said in 2007 the economic growth
was 8.8 percent, and the GDP totaled 70.8 billion drams. The volume
of production totaled 22.4 billion drams, which is up by 6.4 percent
compared with 2006, the volume of agricultural production totaled 23.8
billion dram, and the volume of construction totaled 20.8 billion drams
(growth 18.2 percent).

The representative of the government read out the information that
last year 1500 jobs were created, mostly in education, production
and governance. The average salary was 68,610 drams. People’s income
increased by 19.3 percent and expenses increased by 18.4 percent
compared with 2006.

Member of Parliament Benik Bakshiyan was interested in the annual
flow of financial means to Karabakh. The deputy minister said the
real volume should not be judged by remittances. The member of
parliament asked to present at least the bank information. However,
Nver Baghdasaryan did not utter any number because he did not know.

The report on budget performance will be discussed till May 7 by all
the committees and factions.

Assets Of VTB Bank (Armenia) Grow 22.7% Over 1st Q To AMD 84.9bln

ASSETS OF VTB BANK (ARMENIA) GROW 22.7% OVER 1ST Q TO AMD 84.9BLN

ARKA
April 30, 2008

YEREVAN, April 29. /ARKA/. Assets of VTB Bank (Armenia) has grown
22.7% over the first quarter to AMD 84.9bln, Valery Ovsyannikov,
general director and chairman of the directorial board of the bank,
said on Tuesday.

"The bank’s credit portfolio reached AMD 45.1 billion after growing
12% over the quarter and liabilities totaled AMD 63.5 billion after
rising 31%", he said.

Ovsyannikov said that the bank ranked seventh to ninth on various
indicators in the previous year. Shareholders were unhappy about such
a result.

However, later that year and earlier this year the bank firmly occupied
the 4th position on assets, credit portfolio and liabilities.

Ovsyannikov said if things keeps running this way, the bank will be
among three leaders by late 2008.

VTB Bank Armenia (former Armenian Savings Bank) was established
in 1923.

Russian VTB Bank is the only shareholder of VTB Bank Armenia.

The bank’s assets totaled AMD 69.1 billion, credit portfolio AMD 40.2
billion and liabilities AMD 48.4 billion.

VTB Bank Armenia has 89 branches in Armenia, provinces and
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. ($1 = AMD 308.17).

President Of Credit Agricole Bank Congratulates PM Tigran Sargsyan

PRESIDENT OF CREDIT AGRICOLE BANK CONGRATULATES PM TIGRAN SARGSYAN

armradio.am
29.04.2008 13:02

Chairman of the French Credit Agricole Bank Rene Carron congratulated
RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan on appointment. The message states,
in part:

"It was a pleasure for me to learn about your appointment to the
post of Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. On this occasion
let me render my sincere congratulations on behalf of the Credit
Agricole Bank.

In May 2004 I had the opportunity to meet you in Yerevan during the
meeting of the Central Committee of the International Confederation
of the Credit Agricole. Later it was a pleasure for us to host the
delegation led by you at the Office of the Credit Agricole located
in Paris.

On different occasions we have had the opportunity to assess your
skilled strictness, the capacity to listen and your open mind. Under
your leadership the Central Bank and the banking system of Armenia
registered great progress, which is an important component for the
country’s development.

You are well informed about the role of the Credit Agricole in the
creation and development of the ACBA Bank, first through consultation
and personnel training, later through trade and system partnership
and finally with strategic participation with 28% of shares, which
you confirmed in October 2006.

I render my most sincere and friendly wishes to you for the benefit of
the development of the country and prosperity of the Armenian people.

With great pleasure I will meet you and the Director General of
the ACBA Bank Stepan Gishyan in Paris or Yerevan to reconfirm the
reinforcement of our cooperation."

According To Vladimir Aghayan, Rf Authorities’ Not Authorizing April

ACCORDING TO VLADIMIR AGHAYAN, RF AUTHORITIES’ NOT AUTHORIZING APRIL 24 ACTION NEAR EMBASSY OF TURKEY WAS WRONG

Noyan Tapan
April 29, 2008

YEREVAN, APRIL 29, NOYAN TAPAN. The current geopolitical events
throw down serious challenges especially to small peoples. Therefore,
as Vladimir Aghayan, the Vice-Chairman of the Union of Armenians in
Russia, the head of the Armenian branch of the World Armenian Congress,
said at the April 29 press conference, consolidation around national
interests has become the dictate of time. According to him, the
Union of Armenians in Russia, which exists for already eight years,
pursues the goal of consolidation, and its international authority
becomes higher and higher.

In V. Aghayan’s words, today 2.5 million Armenians live in Russia,
almost as much as in Armenia. It is not so easy to unite so many
people, however, according to his observation, the organization does
its best to assist any Armenian who applies to it. In particular,
as V. Aghayan affirmed, a legal service functions in the central
aministration of the Union of Armenians in Russia, the specialists
of which are engaged in protection of rights of Armenians.

Commenting upon the fact of bringing to Police the participants
of the unauthorized action of protest of Armenians on April 24
near the Embassy of Turkey in Russia, V. Aghayan said that the RF
authorities acted wrongly by not authorizing the event. He reminded
to journalists that every year they authorized the actions of protest
near the Embassy of Turkey and this April 24 was an exception. In
any case not to authorize the action of protest, according to him,
should not give an occasion to suppose that Armenian-Russian strategic
cooperation has become shattered.

Chauvinist nation: Keep Turkey out of EU if it rejects real freedom

Omaha World-Herald (Nebraska)
April 26, 2008 Saturday
Iowa; Midlands; Nebraska; Sunrise Editions

A chauvinist nation: Keep Turkey out of the EU if it rejects real
freedom of speech.

EDITORIAL; Pg. 06B

There’s freedom of speech, and then there’s, well, un-freedom of
speech. Turkey is having difficulty accepting the real thing and is
justifiably suffering for it.

Since the days of Kemal Ataturk, who founded the modern nation, Turkey
has had a ban on insulting "Turkishness." Since 2005, more than 60
cases have been prosecuted over "insults" ranging from denigrating the
nation’s armed forces to writing a book about Ataturk that reported he
had once fled disguised as a woman. Most individuals have been
acquitted.

Many of the "insults" are derived from the Turkish nation’s
sensitivities over its ethnic Kurds, whose rebellion was squashed in
the early 20th century at a cost of tens of thousands of lives, and
the ethnic cleansing of an estimated 1.5 million Armenians during the
final years of the Ottoman Empire, in the late 19th and early 20th
centuries.

Turkey wants to join the European Union but faces a freedom-of-speech
barrier. To overcome it, the nation is considering replacing the word
"Turkishness" with the phrase "Turkish nation" and reducing the
maximum penalty for the offense from three years to two.

That’s hardly a giant step toward freedom of speech. If the EU is
serious about its core tenets, it will hold true to safeguarding the
principle of free speech. Further EU delay on Turkey’s application for
membership would focus the minds of Turkish leaders on the need to
move away from a chauvinistic, narrow-minded attitude.

Vandals desecrate Armenian Genocide Khachkar in Budapest

PanARMENIAN.Net

Vandals desecrate Armenian Genocide Khachkar in Budapest
26.04.2008 16:08 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Khachkar dedicated to the memory of the Armenian
Genocide victims in Budapest was desecrated by the unknown a few hours
before the ceremonies of the 93rd anniversary of the Armenian
Genocide, independent French journalist told PanARMENIAN.Net.

The vandals pulverized of black painting in this crowned day of April
24, 2008.

In the back of the monument painting entirely covers the word
`Genocide’ engraved in Armenian. The word `Lie’ is overwritten in
Hungarian.

The memorial was erected in Budapest in 2000. It’s the first time that
such an act of vandalism is perpetrated against the symbolic Armenian
monument.

The Armenian presence in Hungary goes up at 1000 years.

BAKU: Adil Baghirov: "Secret Of Success Of Armenians’ Propaganda Is

ADIL BAGHIROV: "SECRET OF SUCCESS OF ARMENIANS’ PROPAGANDA IS SIMPLE: THEY SPEAK OF 1915 "GENOCIDE" CONSTANTLY, EVERY DAY"

Today, Azerbaijan
April 24 2008

Day.Az interview with chief executive of USAN project Adil Baghirov.

-World Armenians mark the anniversary of what they call "the genocide"
of 1915 on April 24. How do US Armenians prepare for this event within
a year?

-You are right. Indeed throughout the whole year Armenians focus on
preparations for the day of 1915 "genocide". The Armenian diaspora
arranges numerous street rallies and protests on this day in the
United States, in particular, in front of the Turkish embassy to
the United States in Washington, in front of the Turkey’s Consulate
in Los-Angeles.

Moreover, on this day films are transmitted by US TV channels about
the Armenian version of the 1915 events in Osman Turkey, articles are
published on this topic both in the Armenian US press as well as the
overall US press, lectures and presentations are arranged with leaflets
issued on this topic in various universities of the United States.

Considering the strong Armenian diaspora in the United States, the
effect of actions on this day is very strong, considering that such
propaganda actions have been carried out by the Armenian diaspora
beginning from the 1960s.

– Is it possible to say that in the result of work carried out by
the Armenian diapora, an average American has fully agreed with the
Armenian version of the 1915 events?

-I would like to say that in fact an average American has no idea
of the details of the events, which occured in Osman Turkey nearly
a century ago. Though, we should confess, that when Armenia and
"genocide" is spoken of in the United States, this "genocide" is
regarded as one that had taken place in real. The secret of success
of this propaganda is simple: Armenians speak of "genocide" every day.

In particular, one of the leaders of Armenian diaspora in California
told me in the 1990s that the "genocide" of 1915 is a subject,
Armenians discuss during breakfact, lunch and dinner.

Practice shows that nothing of the kind is observed in case of the
Azerbaijani and Turkish diaspora groups of the United States. We
prefer to focus on positive not tragic events of the history of our
people. But practice shows that people, in particular, in the United
States attach special importance to tragic events. In the result,
the announcements about tragic events and their analysis affects the
society. Perhaps, this is the reason of success of Armenian lobby in
imposing their version of the 1915 events on the US society.

Naturally, we have made conclusions from what we have and we work to
neutralize the success of Armenian diaspora in this direction.

-Is there a hope that consolidating Azerbaijani diaspora of the
United States will manage to neutralize the effect of such propaganda
actions of the Armenian diaspora and attain similar influence in the
United States?

-You were right to mention that the Azerbaijani diaspora of the United
States is consolidating. Being in constant contact and cooperation
with the Turkish diaspora and diaspora groups of other countries
in the United States, our diaspora becomes stronger, more informed
and prepared.

Yes, we conduct numerous arrangements, expand field of our activity,
but we should not forget that Armenians have carried out such work
for already 50 years, while Azerbaijani and Turkish Diaspora groups
started to work in this direction in the early 1990s and intensified
their activity only in the late 1990s. In other words, Armenians have
an advantage in the sense of propaganda.

Despite this and despite the numeral superiority of the US Armenian
diaspora before the Azerbaijani and Turkish diaspora groups, the
facts, demonstrating the real success of our diaspora groups, do
exist at the moment. These achievements should be considered in the
context of strengthening positions of Azerbaijan and Turkey in the
world. And I am sure that this will have a positive effect. However,
this might not occur in a couple of years. We should work much to
neutralize the results of long activity of the Armenian diaspora in
the United States and to turn the balance in our favor.

-The example of the work of your organization demonstrates the
achievements, people loving Azerbaijan and living beyond its bounds,
can reach. In this connection, a question arises about the need for
such organization of the State Committee for work with Azerbaijanis,
residing abroad.

To answer this question it is necessary to take a trip to a recent
past. I think, the overall success of the Azerbaijani diaspora and
its achievements in resistance to Armenian diaspora grew after the
committee was founded. Moreover, it should be noted that each country
has its own pecularities. In particular, for the CIS countries,
such state committees and active role of the state in strengthening
positions of compatriots are crucial.

As for the United States, it is sometimes not impossible to reach
success there, as the United States is a large, multinational,
multi-religious country, where a diaspora, in this case, the
Azerbaijani diaspora should reckon on its own powers to strengthen
positions. Our diaspora has recently managed to establish ways of
work with the US community, ways of strengthening our own positions,
informing Americans about our interpretation of the events, which
occured in the modern history of Azerbaijan.

In other words, in a number of moments, the role of the Azerbaijani
state can not rival the role of Azerbaijanis, residing in the United
States, as to informing the Americans about any events in our modern
history or in the history, which Armenian diaspora of the United
States tries to interpret differently.

Therefore, we have no other way out except for basing on our own powers
and work in favor of both Azerbaijan and Azerbaijanis, residing in
the United States.

K-Telecom First Taxpayer In Armenia For 2008

K-TELECOM FIRST TAXPAYER IN ARMENIA FOR 2008

arminfo
2008-04-23 14:38:00

ArmInfo. K-Telecom cellular operator (VivaCell trademark, subsidiary
of MTS) has become the first taxpayer in Armenia for first quarter
of 2008 by paying 6,813 billon drams taxes to the state budget, the
Revenue Service of Armenia (RSA) reports. RSA published the list of
300 biggest taxpayers for Jan-Mar 2008.

Armenian-Russian ArmRusgasprom CJSC ranks second in the list by 6,746
billion drams. CJSC ArmenTel (subsidiary of VimpelCom) occupies the
third position in the list by 3.681 billion drams. Zangezur Cooper
and Molybdenum Plant CJSC paid 3 billion drams taxes and occurred
on the 4th position. The last in the top five taxpayers is Flash oil
trader by 2.4 billion drams.

CJSC Armenian Electric Networks is in the 7th position by 2.1 billion
drams.

Armenian Nuclear Power Plant is in the 13th position and Yerevan Brandy
Company is in the 15th position. Ararat Yerevan brandy- wine-vodka
plant is in the 42nd position in the list. RusAl Armenal is in the
61st position, Armenian Railway in the 70th position and HayPost
CJSC in the 129th position. The International Airports of Armenia,
the concessionaire of Yerevan Zvartnots Airport, proved the 142nd
yielding to many auto dealers of the country and even electronics
shops. Armavia CJSC national air carrier was not included in the list.

Opposition – In A Deadlock

OPPOSITION – IN A DEADLOCK
Armen Tsatouryan

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
Published on April 22, 2008
Armenia

And in need of a dialogue

On April 19, when the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of
Europe was passing Resolution # 1609 on the "Activity of Democratic
Institutions in Armenia", our opposition was holding a demonstration
in the Children’s Park of Yerevan.

The fact that those two events coincided in time aspect may considered
by some people as the aftermath of the international pressures
against Armenia.

Others may view it as the opposition’s attempt of attracting the
world’s attention, and still another third group of people may look
upon it as a mere coincidence.

However, such diversity of opinions cannot separate this phenomenon
from its essence.

If we are capable of organizing a demonstration in the heart of the
capital city because of the recent changes introduced to the law on
"Holding Assemblies, Rallies, Marches and Demonstrations", a document
that attracted criticism even by the Parliamentary Assembly of the
Council of Europe, it means that the whole system of forcible though
temporary restrictions of democratic norms is beginning to gradually
lapse in Armenia.

For solving the problems of our citizens who have found themselves
in the opposite barricades of the political struggle there will be no
need to organize hearings in Washington or Strasburg, invite there the
representatives of the participants of the March 1-2 confrontation,
"ask them to the ring" and allow them to properly curse one another,
spot our country’s reputation and gladden the Azerbaijani leadership
which accuses the international community of applying double standards
in relation to the recent developments of Armenia.

It is just necessary for us to realize that as a nation having a
civilization of 5 thousand years, our standards of behavior and
ability to understand one another are enough to get along without
the assistance of PACE and the "Helsinki Committee" of the US
Congress and implement the clauses underlying their resolutions and
"recommendations" on our own.

It’s time for the participants of the recent political confrontation
to put aside the thunderous statement "we have won" (instead of the
April 19 slogan "we will win") and look upon the reality with sober
eyes. The PACE Resolution, adopted on Aril 19, has not only imposed
certain requirements upon the authorities of Armenia, but also obliged
the opposition to recognize the results of the February 19 elections
or to appeal against them in a civilized manner, by applying to the
European Court of Human Rights, Strasburg.

By the steps undertaken since February 19, the authorities have already
expressed their willingness to comply with those requirements, and
the first evidence is the authorization of the rally organized by
the opposition.

A question arises as to what the opposition will do if all the people
who didn’t resort to violence during the March 1-2 events are released
and the restrictions introduced in the law on "Holding Assemblies,
Rallies, Marches and Demonstrations" are mitigated. Will it organize
new marches and demonstrations so as there will be new clashes,
violence and hence – arrests or, is it going to comply with the
proposals enshrined in PACE Resolution # 1609, thus recognizing the
results of the February 19 elections or applying to the European Court
of Human Rights? But the whole problem is that, having found themselves
in a deadlock, the whole political team supporting L. Ter-Petrosyan
has already been deprived of the opportunity of choosing any of the
above-mentioned options. After the passage of the PACE Resolution, the
opposition no longer has the opportunity of abusing the opportunity to
"dispute" the results of the February 19 elections "in the streets",
and in case of applying to the European Court of Human Rights, it will
be absolutely deprived of the right to speak on the topic because,
likewise in the Constitutional Court of Armenia, the opposition will
be unable to prove its barefaced allegations in Strasburg.

So, L. Ter-Petrosyan is facing the dilemma of either committing a
political suicide or initiating a dialogue with the authorities. As
to a third way, it simply doesn’t exist, because even though it is
possible to "prolong" the existing abnormal situation for several
months and wait for the new authorities to commit blunders in order
to be able to criticize them, this will not change anything, as a
matter of fact.

As to the opposition and its leader that brought the people to the
streets after February 19, they, too, may be deprived of their current
status at the coming stages of the political processes if they are
unable to form part of the political counterbalances developing
at present.