Author: Karapetian Hovik

MOSCOW DISBELIEVES RESULTS
Hakob Badalyan

Lragir
13:16:06 – 03/11/2008

The meeting of the presidents of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan in
Moscow actually did not produce any results, if we do not take into
account the joint declaration which the presidents signed committing
to a settlement of the conflict based on the international law. The
purpose of this statement, however, was most probably an attempt to
save the reputation of the meeting.

The meeting or Russia. For Russia, it would be rather undesirable
if the three-party meeting did not differ from the previous
Armenian-Azerbaijani meetings. In order to underline this difference,
the declaration was invented for the mediation effort to produce an
impression of effectiveness.

There will be political scientists, politicians, people who will
discern serious geopolitical nuances, contexts of returning or saving
territories, what not, high or low spirits of the presidents, heroism,
diplomatic skills or lack of skills behind this document. However,
all this will only bring about Russia’s estimates. That is, to at
least supply a document which at least the diplomats and experts would
discuss, deterring attention from the meeting, failing to notice its
casualty and void, and thereby ignoring the great diplomatic failure
of Russia.

And the failure is really great, for the simple reason that
the Russians actually lose their last chance to eternalize in the
Caucasus through Karabakh. The problem is not that Russia, encouraged
by its successful military campaign in the Georgian conflict area,
decided that it can solve the Karabakh issue on the run, like it
solved the conflicts of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It is perhaps
the analyses that the West told Russians that since they solved the
issues of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, they should allow the West to
solve the issue of Karabakh, are a little far from the reality. It is
more probable that the Russians realized that they did not solve the
issue of Abkhazia and Ossetia, the West solved it, more exactly the
United States, by involving the Russians in a war in Georgia. And
this understanding pushed Moscow to think that if the West solved
the issues of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, even though through the
Russians and Georgians, at least they should solve the Karabakh issue.

The point is not that only Karabakh was left. The point is that
Karabakh could have compensated for the strategic defeat of the
Russians in the north of Georgia. However, their situation got more
complicated because the West, namely the United States had very little
to do – to hinder the Russians.

In other words, the struggle was not about who was going to solve the
conflict and whose peacekeeping forces were going to stand between
Armenia and Azerbaijan, but over not allowing the Russians to have any,
at least general achievement. Judging by the Medvedev-Sargsyan-Aliyev
meeting, judging by the ascetic attitude of the Russian TV channels
towards the meeting, ostensibly the Americans have solved the problem
perfectly.

In fact, as it usually happens with the settlement of such conflicts,
very often the agreements are outlined, expressed days, even
weeks or months after the meeting because they are usually shadow
agreements and are not revealed to guarantee that they are brought
into being. However, the point is that the calculations of Russia
were obviously based on a short-term effect. Apparently, Moscow
was likely to use the opportunity that the presidential election in
the United States is coming up, that Iran is rather passive, that
Turkey is interested in at least short-term partnership, that the
president of Armenia is facing a legitimacy deadlock, and to corner
the region. In other words, the short-term effect had a significant
role in the calculation of the Russians, and the long-term success
was going to be determined by the "unpleasant" surprise that Russia
would give its opponents for a short period, through an agreement
with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Hence, perhaps it is time that the opposition becomes active because
most probably a pause in the Karabakh conflict is expected. Before that
the process may resist, through visits or statements of co-chairs,
however the fact is that the Russian diplomatic blitzkrieg failed,
and there seems to be nobody else to have such a wish. At least,
the situation is such that since we are living in the era of football
diplomacy, victory favored the Russians only, and the others will be
happy with a draw, at least for the time being.

Interfax, Russia
Nov 2 2008

Russian, Azeri, Armenian Fms to Discuss Trilateral Summit
Saturday, November 01, 2008 11:12 PM

MOSCOW. Nov 1 (Interfax) – Russian, Azeri and Armenian foreign
ministers Sergei Lavrov, Elmar Mamedyarov and Edward Nalbandian have
discussed preparations for a meeting of the presidents of the three
countries.

"Preparations of the upcoming meeting on the Nagorno-Karabakh
settlement between Azeri and Armenian presidents Ilkham Aliyev and
Serzh Sargsyan with the participation of Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev due to take place on November 2" were discussed at the
meeting, which took place on October 31, the Russian Freeing Ministry
said in a statement issued on Saturday.

IS THERE A LOCAL CRISIS THREAT?

A1+
[08:30 pm] 30 October, 2008

What lessons must Armenia learn from the global economic crisis
and how can Armenia ease the impact? This and other issues were
discussed during a meeting today with a number of economists and
public and political figures at the Armenian Center for National and
International Studies.

In his intervention, Yerevan State University lecturer and leading
economist Dr. Tatoul Manasserian examined the impact which today’s
global economic crisis is having on the economy of Armenia and the
lessons being learned from this situation. According to him, this
crisis was anticipated for a long time and was completely predictable
but, because of the economic globalization, it encompassed an expanse
that was broader than expected. "And even though Armenia does not have
a stock exchange–which is the heart of economy–and is therefore
‘isolated’ from the global economy, this does not at all immune the
country from numerous setbacks." Manasserian noted. "The most essential
setback is the fact that the imports will surpass the exports four
times and this means we are not a country that affects the prices,
but rather one that abides to the price fluctuations. And this is
because we import in accordance with the prices that are set by the
global market." As for the lessons to be learned from this crisis,
Manasserian pointed that Armenia’s economy now must grow with an
inartificial impulse; the financial sector needs to be linked with
the real sector; individual steps have to be taken which will promote
economic growth; the Armenian currency, the dram, should gain natural
value; the economic and political elite must be detached; dependency
on few allied countries ought to be eliminated; the investment field
needs to be regulated; and imports have to be reduced on the account
of increasing competition.

The next speaker, Slavonic University lecturer and "Political Economy"
Research Institute director Andranik Tevanian, spoke about the foreign
and domestic challenges facing Armenia’s economy. "The current
crisis, which primarily was caused by the ‘cheap-money’ policy of
the United States, was the first large global economic emergency
of the post-industrial societies with virtual economies. And this
calamity had its unavoidable bearing on Armenia’s economy as well,"
Tevanian maintained. "The first collapse in Armenia probably was
recorded in the real estate market, which was greatly dependent on
the mortgage credits. The second was the reduction in the private
monetary transfers, mainly from Russia and elsewhere, which hurts
600-700 thousand Armenian residents. And thirdly, the consumer market
will face an immediate predicament." In Tevanian’s view, Armenia also
could have gained dividends from this crisis because its economy was
not integrated and, if the prices of consumer goods fell, Armenia
could have imported cheap products. "But, sadly, we can hardly make
use of this situation. The problem is inside the country and the
economic structure in different domains is either a monopoly, or an
anti-competition system is in effect, plus the ruling administration
and the business circle are intertwined," Tevanian stated.

In his turn, Real Estate Information Center director, Associate
Professor Erik Mesropian reflected on the ongoing global economic
turmoil’s immediate bearing on Armenia’s realty market. He underscored
the importance of the changes taking place in this domain since
it constitutes approximately one-third of the country’s national
income. "The mortgage crisis reminded us of the problems connected
with the realty market, which provides a considerable portion of
Armenia’s GDP and is also the main source of employment," Mesropian
argued. "However, Armenia is the supplier of the great majority of
construction materials and the sharp increase–which is not dependent
on the global processes, at all–in their prices deals a heavy blow
to this sector. And therefore not only the consequences of the world
economic crisis, but also those of the ‘Armenian crisis’ have affected
this domain adversely," Mesropian maintained. According to him, as
a result of Armenia’s current political situation created after the
presidential elections and because of the country’s new tax policy, the
real estate market of Armenia now has registered a reduction in demand.

The roundtable discussants also included analyst Movses Aristakesian
of the "Center for Economic Rights" NGO; director Gagik Makarian of
the Union of Manufacturers and Businessmen of Armenia; chairman Edward
Antinian of the "Democracy, Prosperity, Security" NGO; Armine Udumian
from the State Commission for the Protection of Economic Competition;
journalist and economist Hrair Manukian; and several others.

NKR PRESIDENT: "INDEPENDENCE AND SECURITY OF THE NAGORNO KARABAKH REPUBLIC CANNOT BE A SUBJECT OF GAMBLE"

Ministry of Foreign Affairs
2008-10-28 11:51
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic

NKR president Bako Sahakian and RA president Serzh Sargsyan, who was
on a two-day working visit to Artsakh, observed military maneuvers,
conducted by the NKR Defense Army.

Answering the journalists’ questions Bako Sahakian noted that the
state independence and security of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic are
exclusive values and cannot be an article of commerce and gambling.

"The Armenian people has paid a high price for this independence
and freedom, that’s why we have no right to put them under risk", –
Bako Sahakian stressed.

He also emphasized that the Nagorno Karabakh Republic is ready to
start direct negotiations with Azerbaijan without any preconditions
and discuss any issues related to the Karabakh-Azerbaijani conflict
settlement; however, it cannot be at the expense of our independence
and security.

"The NKR Defense Army can rebuff any encroachment upon our independence
and security, and in case of aggression by Azerbaijan shift hostilities
deep into the adversary’s territory", – Bako Sahakian said.

ARMENIAN PRIME MINISTER DOES NOT SEE ANY DANGER OF FINANCIAL CRISIS

Noyan Tapan
Oct 22, 2008

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 22, NOYAN TAPAN. The main cause of the international
financial crisis is the mutual distrust of financial market
participants and the expectations of negative developments, Armenian
Prime Minister Tigran Sargsian said when responding to a question of
deputies at the RA National Assembly on October 22. Speaking about
the possible impact of the crisis on Armenia, he said that there are
no such signs in the country. T. Sargsian expressed his disagreement
with the proposal to form gold reserves, saying that the Armenian
economy has not yet grown to such an extent that the country could
afford to accumulate wealth in the form of gold.

ALIYEV INAUGURATED FOR 2ND TERM AS PRESIDENT OF AZERBAIJAN

RIA Novosti
15:30 | 24/ 10/ 2008

BAKU, October 24 (RIA Novosti) – Ilham Aliyev was inaugurated for
his second term as Azerbaijan’s president on Friday, just over a week
after his re-election in a poll boycotted by some opposition parties.

The South Caucasus state’s Constitutional Court approved on Wednesday
the results of the October 15 presidential polls, in which Aliyev
received 88.73% of the vote. According to Azerbaijan’s top election
authority, turnout was 75.12%. More than 4.8 million people were
registered to vote.

Russia was represented at the ceremony by Sergei Naryshkin, the head
of the presidential administration, while Georgian President Mikheil
Saakashvili, CIS Executive Secretary Sergei Lebedev, and a Turkish
deputy prime minister, Cemil Cicek, were also in attendance.

Aliyev took over as president when his father, Heydar, stepped down
in 2003, subsequently winning 76.84% of the vote in that year’s
presidential election.

"I would like to reiterate today that I will remain committed to these
policies [of Heydar Aliyev], and will not deviate from this path,"
the newly inaugurated president said.

He categorically opposed independence for Nagorny Karabakh, a region
in Azerbaijan with a largely Armenian population. The region declared
its independence from Azerbaijan to join Armenia in 1988 and has been
a source of conflict ever since.

"Never – not today, nor tomorrow, not in 10 years, nor in 50 years
will Nagorny Karabakh be granted sovereignty," Aliyev said.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said earlier this week he could
soon discuss a Nagorny Karabakh settlement with his Armenian and
Azerbaijani counterparts in Moscow.

RAILWAY BETWEEN TBILISI AND YEREVAN WILL BE STUDIED IN THE FRAME OF EU "TRACECA" PROGRAMME

armradio.am
25.10.2008 12:52

The European Union is launching an important project aimed at
performing a feasibility study of the operating railway between
Tbilisi and Yerevan in the frame of TRACECA Programme (Transport
Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia).

EU Tacis – TRACECA is aimed at supporting the political and economic
development in Black Sea Region, Caucasus and Central Asia by means
of improvement of the international transport infrastructures. Today
the TRACECA programme encompasses thirteen countries: five countries
in Europe, three Caucasian states and five countries in Central Asia.

The main Tbilisi – Yerevan railway link, which has been inaugurated
in 1899 and electrified in 1967 suffers from a severe backlog of
maintenance and modernisation, and thereby cannot cover actual and
future transport needs in an effective and competitive way.

In the scope of the programme the alternative Yerevan- Tbilisi railway
link via Azerbaijan will also be studied. It has been inaugurated
and electrified in 1984, nevertheless, only the section Yerevan –
Dilijan is in operation since several years.

During the coming year the consultants will assess the current state
and will develop a detailed proposal for the rehabilitation of the
railway.

The realization of this project will be implemented by an
Italian – Ukrainian consortium, composed by: Lattanzio e Associati
S.p.A. (Italy), Khardiprotrans OJSC (Ukraine), International Consulting
& Service Group s.r.l. (Italy), International Railway Technology &
Service s.r.l. (Italy).

ARMENIAN-IRANIAN RELATIONS DISCUSSED

ARMENPRESS
Oct 23, 2008

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 23, ARMENPRESS: Armenian National Assembly Speaker
Hovik Abrahamian received today Iranian ambassador to Armenia Seyid
Ali Saghayan.

Public relations department of the NA told Armenpress that during the
meeting Hovik Abrahamian highly underscored the cooperation between
the two friendly countries and the economic ties which are expanding
from year to year.

The NA speaker asked to convey his greetings and good-wishes to the
chairman of the Iranian Mili Mejlis (parliament) and the invited
the group of members of Armenian friendship group of the Iranian
parliament to visit Armenia, expressing assurance that mutual visits
and warm relations between the parliamentarians will also promote
the development of relations between the two countries.

The Iranian ambassador conveyed his and the greetings of the Iranian
parliament speaker Ali Larijani and the invitation to pay official
visit to Iran. According to him, the relations between the two
parliaments greatly promote the consolidation of ties between the
two countries.

Hovik Abrahamian highly underscored the neutral and balanced position
of Iran over Nagorno Karabakh and underscoring the development of
cooperation with Iran in all the economic spheres referred to the
importance of bringing to life the programs in the energy system.

Expressing gratitude for the invitation, H. Abrahamian said that he
will plan to pay a visit to Tehran in 2009.

During the meeting the sides also discussed other issues as well.

PRESIDENT OF THE NKR SIGNED SEVERAL DECREES

Azat Artsakh Daily
20 Oct 08
Republic of Nagorno Karabakh [NKR]

On 20 October President of the Nagorno Karabagh Republic Bako Sahakyan
signed several decrees. According to the decree the terms in office of
the First Instance Court judges Artyusha Madatyan and Volodya Stepanyan
were terminated ahead of schedule upon their own request. According
to another decree the authorities of Artysha Madatyan as a member of
the Council of Judicial Magistracy were terminated ahead of schedule.

REPORTERS WITHOUT BORDERS RANKS RUSSIA 141ST FOR MEDIA FREEDOM

RIA Novosti
15:08 | 22/ 10/ 2008

MOSCOW, October 22 (RIA Novosti) – Russia has been ranked 141 out of
173 countries in the 2008 press freedom index published on Wednesday
by the international organization Reporters Without Borders.

The report’s authors say the Russian media "continues to be subject
to violence and harassment." Russia, up from 144th in 2007 and 147th
in 2006 but still not back to the 138th spot it occupied in 2005,
was ranked between Mexico (140th) and Ethiopia (142nd).

The research is based on events that took place between September
1, 2007, and September 1, 2008. It is aimed to show the degree of
freedom that journalists and media enjoy in a country and efforts by
its authorities to respect and ensure press freedom.

The index is based on 49 criteria, including "every kind of violation
directly affecting journalists (such as murders, imprisonment, physical
attacks and threats) and news media (censorship, confiscation of
newspaper issues, searches and harassment)."

"It is not economic prosperity but peace that guarantees press
freedom. That is the main lesson to be drawn from the world press
freedom index," the organization said in the report.

Most of the top 20 countries are European, except for New Zealand (7th)
and Canada (13th). The top three countries are Iceland, Luxembourg
and Norway.

The former Soviet republics Estonia and Latvia were fourth and seventh,
respectively.

France has lost four positions in the rating and was ranked 35th. Italy
(44th) and Spain (36th) have also showed mediocre rankings, "due,
in the former, to a poor overall climate and to mafia threats and
violence, and in the latter, to the fear imposed by the Basque armed
separatist group ETA."

The United States is level with Spain in 36th place, climbing 12
spots in part thanks to the "release of Al-Jazeera cameraman Sami
Al-Haj after six years in the Guantanamo Bay military base."

Press freedom has significantly deteriorated in the Caucasus,
where "two of its three independent countries – Armenia (102nd)
and Georgia (120th) – had major problems and introduced states of
emergency." Several journalists were killed in the brief armed conflict
between Georgia and its breakaway republic of South Ossetia in August.

Azerbaijan, which did not introduce the state of emergency during
the relevant period was, however, ranked 150th.

The former Soviet Central Asian countries continue to lag far behind,
with Turkmenistan (171st) and Uzbekistan (162nd) coming in the bottom
20, along with Belarus (154th). Ukraine (88th), Kazakhstan (125th)
and Kyrgyzstan (111th), however, were ranked higher than Russia.

Below Turkmenistan in the bottom three – the "infernal trio," which is
unchanged from last year – are North Korea (172nd) and Eritrea (173rd).

Reporters Without Borders is registered in France as a non-profit
organization and has consultant status at the United Nations.