SOUTH CAUCASIAN CONFEDERATION: PRO AND CONTRA. VIEWS OF REGIONAL EXPERTS
Regnum, Russia
March 15 2006
After a series of provocations that could well break out into a
large-scale war, there is again a fragile peace in South Ossetia. Is
it for long? How can the South Caucasian nations solve their existing
conflicts when at stake are their state interests, territorial claims,
let alone the feelings of national dignity and revenge? Where can
Abkhazians, Ossetians and Georgians, Armenians and Azeris – nations
that have lived in one common house for centuries in the past – find
common grounds now in the present? More and more authors have recently
been appearing with the idea of a South Caucasian confederation or
federation as a way to resolve the local conflicts.
The article “Deja vu: The Third Attempt of South Caucasian Federation”
by REGNUM examines the two past failures to form such an organism
and hypothesizes about the third attempt. But the objective of the
article is not a theoretical research with a question mark in the end,
but a practical monitoring of views by political experts from Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Georgia, Nagorno Karabakh. Bellow are the results of the
monitoring giving a true picture of the process.
Political expert from Yerevan Armenak Hovhannisyan tends to think that
the optimal scenario is not a confederation of the South Caucasian
states but a regional organization of the South Caucasian nations. “Our
region is multi-religious and multi-national, and I suppose that the
regional South Caucasian organization will represent the interests of
those nations,” says Hovhannisyan. He notes that conflicts will be
easily resolved if resolved from inside. “Solutions to all existing
conflicts are inside, and the three South Caucasian states should act
as one,” says Hovhannisyan. He doubts that a South Caucasian state can
be formed now. “To form just an organization is already a hard job.”
“I believe that today there is no single prerequisite for a united
South Caucasian state and will not be in the next 20-30-40 years. One
obstacle is continuing wars. But we should get started anyway. For
the beginning we can form a regional organization – not obligatorily
in one day and not obligatorily with agreements and legal rules. At
first, it might pass just recommendations that will take legal force
if the peace process goes on, says Hovhannisyan. He notes that such
organizations are also influenced by time. “No structure is insured
against disintegration – and confederations are no exception. In
their case, they either grow into federations or fall into pieces,”
says Hovhannisyan.
Another Armenian political expert Hrachya Galstyan says that a united
federative institution in the South Caucasus is a far-off prospect.
“Today we better consider forming a corporate – super-state or
extra-state – institution. This can be done, even more, this has
already been done – one vivid example is PACE,” says Galstyan. He notes
that the Caucasus will inevitably unite – for it is common political
and economic space. Galstyan is sure that super-state institution may
also include unrecognized Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno Karabakh,
who will be represented by their local authorities and cultural
societies. “This process is already underway,” says Galstyan. He
believes that this is the very “aegis” for resolving the conflicts
in the South Caucasus. “The conflicts in Kosovo and Macedonia have
been resolved under the EU ‘aegis’. We should also form one. This is
the only prospect for resolving our conflicts,” says Galstyan.
“The formation of a united state in the South Caucasus can be a result
of the resolution of conflicts rather than a way to resolve them,”
says the president of the Peaceful Development of the Caucasus union
(Tbilisi), expert Nugzar Gogorishvili. At the same time, “Georgians,
Armenians and Azeris should understand and say what they want –
to form our state or to be fully controlled by the north and the
west. Unfortunately, we are so weak and so afraid of responsibility
that we are looking for someone to shift it onto. The idea is no
news – there was a South Caucasian Federation in the past, but it
fell apart because we were not ready for it, we didn’t understand
what we formed. We, the nations of the South Caucasus, were yet weak,
we were outsiders to such an institution and sought support outside,”
says Gogorishvili.
“There is no sense in copying the past, we should form something the
public will accept. But it is a fact that we must form something,
especially as the US still regards us as a region rather than
individual countries. The West has its own interest in us: we are a
transport-communication corridor for them. But not to minimize our
role and not to marginalize ourselves as a state, all of us, all the
nations of the South Caucasus, need to sit down together and discuss
our interests,” says Gogorishvili. “The last events have shown that
we are still dependent and obedient – because we mostly seek to
preserve our status. The last Aliyev-Kocharyan meeting is a vivid
example. The blow-ups of gas pipelines in the Northern Caucasus and
the following energy crisis have shown that the South Caucasus is a
united region, united space, and we need a united regional structure,”
says Gogorishvili.
For Ossetians and Abkhazians it is better to integrate with the South
rather than North Caucasus. “The key goal of the national-liberation
struggle of small nations – is to preserve their languages, to form
independent states. But if Ossetians and Abkhazians fear assimilation
in Georgia, imagine what percentage they will constitute if part of
Russia. I think they better integrate with the space they are already
naturally integrated with,” says Gogorishvili.
Georgian analyst, representative of International Crisis Group
Georgy Gogia calls the project a utopia. “Integration – yes, but it
is better for Georgia to integrate with Europe rather than with the
South Caucasus,” says Gogia. He does not agree with the view that the
West regards the Caucasus as a region. “This is not quite right. If
one country moves quicker, it is forced to look back and wait for the
rest. With its current democratic processes Georgia should integrate
into the European structures rather than the South Caucasus,” says
Gogia. “I think that Georgia will inevitably integrate with the South
Caucasus – but why confederation? It will give Georgia no privileges,
while the Euro-integration, with its big promises, certainly will,”
says Gogia.
Leader of the Multi-National Georgia movement, Director of the Armenian
community in Tbilisi Arnold Stepanyan shares the opinion that it
is impossible. “It is impossible but indispensable for early peace
process. Everything depends on what relations the member states will
have, how they will coordinate their foreign policies. If the author
is from a foreign country and seeks to achieve non-democratic goals,
nothing will happen. The idea should come from inside, such a structure
should have wide public support,” says Stepanyan. At the same time,
Stepanyan says that the South Caucasus may unite in economy. “This
will happen earlier than the conflicts will be resolved. ‘
‘Tell me who in Azerbaijan is seriously thinking about South
Caucasian federation?” says the political reviewer of Zerkalo daily
Rauf Mirkadyrov (Azerbaijan). “Especially as there already was a
federation in 1918-1920. Though seemingly attractive, it lived for
several months,” says Mirkadyrov. “If one goes back into the history
of united Europe, he will come across a very interesting detail: the
idea of united Europe first appeared in XIX, while the EU was formed
after the WWII – that is, one cannot put the cart before the horse,”
says Mirkadyrov.
He is sure that the first and foremost precondition is to resolve
the conflicts. “We first need to settle the conflicts. Until the
conflicts are over, the sides will show no interest in integration –
and no integration is possible without mutual interest. Regional union
is a better project, but all depends on where we are moving. If we are
moving towards Europe, this should be taken as a fact. If we seek to
join the EU, we should integrate altogether rather than one by one,”
says Mirkadyrov.
His colleague from Azerbaijan Imran Veliyev, Director of Legal Support
Center, also thinks that a united regional institution is possible only
after the resolution of the regional conflicts. “We have studied the
history of such units in XX. Then the three South Caucasian republics
got together for springing from a simple structure to a more complex
one – the common Soviet space. If viewed like that, confederation can
also be a stage for attaining a stronger result. I support the idea
but think that it is unreal for the moment. It is unreal to form a
united structure when conflicts are still alive. It is impossible to
unite two quarrelling neighbors. ”
Veliyev notes that confederation is not an instrument for resolving
conflicts. Confederation is better for solving energy and economic
problems. “So, one better speak about it in some 10-15 years,” says
Veliyev. At the same time he is sure that conflicts must be settled
by nations. “To give Karabakh to Armenia or to give it independence
in no way means an end to the conflict. This is a dead-end, and one
can expect some new territorial claims shortly… The nations should
sit down and decide how to live further,” says Veliyev.
The assistant to the NK president David Babayan says that South
Caucasian state structure can be formed only if all the three
unrecognized republics are recognized. “At first glance, one might
think that a confederation of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and the
three unrecognized republics is a solution. But a deeper insight
suggests a very important factor – all the three unrecognized
republics must be recognized. They must be given an equal status with
the three South Caucasian states. Then why expect unification? – we
can first recognize and only then consider forming confederation or
even federation. This is more or less logical, while to try to form a
federation and only then to resolve the conflicts is not a prospect,”
says Babayan.
Babayan is convinced that it is for the South Caucasian nations to
decide if they need such an institution. “They can do this through
a referendum or in some other way. But one can’t drive everybody
into a structure they know nothing about or see no meaning in. For
example, if South Ossetia wants to join North Ossetia, why should
it join Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Karabakh? The same is for
Abkhazia, who has definite interests with the Abkhazo-Adyg nations
of the Northern Caucasus. The federation must not be formed by force.
Otherwise, it will give nothing good,” says Babayan.
Nagorno Karabakh representative Edgar Azrumanyan says that it is very
difficult to form such a unit today. “Our antagonism is too strong and
insurmountable yet to make such a unit a possibility,” says Azrumanyan.
First of all, it is necessary to decide how many members the South
Caucasian confederation will have, says independent South Ossetian
expert Gennady Kokoyev. “We’ll not accept a structure of only Georgia,
Armenia and Azerbaijan. I am sure they in Abkhazia and Nagorno Karabakh
think the same. Each of the three republics has its own orientation
it won’t renounce. Karabakh is oriented to Armenia, South Ossetia is
people wanting to reunify with their brothers in the North. Besides,
one should not forget that Abkhazians are relatives to Adygs living
in the Northern Caucasus.
This all makes confederation hardly possible,” says Kokoyev. At the
same time, he says that if formed, the South Caucasian structure will
be an analogue to the European Union. “In the EU each country has
equal functions. This will hardly be the case in the South Caucasian
confederation even if it is represented by three recognized and
three unrecognized states,” says Kokoyev. “Neither South Ossetia, nor
Abkhazia or Nagorno Karabakh are going to renounce their priorities,
while a united South Caucasian state will only ignore and freeze
their existing problems,” says Kokoyev.
Vice Speaker of the South Ossetian Parliament Yuri Dzitsoity says
that a 3-lateral South Caucasian state will not suit South Ossetia,
Abkhazia and Nagorno Karabakh, while the 3+3 format will not suit
Georgia and Azerbaijan. Dzitsoity says that if South Ossetia becomes
a member of such a state, it will have to give up its orientation.
“We seek to reunify with North Ossetia. And not only won’t the South
Caucasian confederation solve our problems, but it will make things
even worse: we’ll have to forget the reunification of the separated
Ossetian people,” says Dzitsoity.
As you may see, a united South Caucasian state is not a solution
to the regional conflicts, while a regional organization – a South
Caucasian parliamentary assembly or something else – might well be.