First-ever Sino-Russo war games begin
Al Jazeera
Wednesday 17 August 2005,
Some 10,000 troops will take part in the Yellow Sea exercise
Russian navy ships and long-range bombers are heading to a Chinese
peninsula jutting into the Yellow Sea for the first-ever joint military
exercise between the two countries.
While the exercise involves a mock intervention to stabilise an
imaginary country riven by ethnic strife, Moscow and Beijing say the
exercise starting on Thursday – set to include some 10,000 troops
from land, sea and air forces â~@~S are not aimed at any third country.
Analysts agree Russia and China are unlikely to team up against a
common enemy.
They say the manoeuvres are more of an exhibition of Russian arms –
including the country’s long-range strategic bombers, which can carry
nuclear weapons – in the hope of attracting Chinese buyers.
Still, both countries will be looking to prove their military might
during the eight days of war games on the Shandong peninsula.
The US Defence Department said in a report last month that China’s
military was increasingly seeking to modernise and could become a
threat to American and other forces in the Asia-Pacific region as it
looked to spread its influence.
Weakness
The Russian military is also eager to show it can still flex its
muscle despite much-publicised woes.
Russia will showcase long-range TU-22 bombers in the exercise
Its weaknesses were highlighted again earlier this month when
Russia had to call for outside help to rescue seven men stranded in
a mini-submarine off its Pacific coast in operations that involved
the Vladivostok-based Pacific Fleet.
The Pacific Fleet is also taking part in the Chinese-Russian exercises,
dubbed “Peace Mission 2005”.
They come amid warming ties between the countries since the end of
the Cold War, driven by mutual concerns about the United States’
dominance in world affairs, as well as a shared interest in combating
extremism in Central Asia.
The two are the dominant countries in the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation, a grouping that includes the former Soviet republics
of Central Asia and which this year took on Iran, India and Pakistan
as observers.
Representatives from the organisation’s countries have been invited
to watch the war games.
At a summit in July, the organisation called on Washington to set a
date for the withdrawal of its forces from Central Asia, where they
have been deployed since after the 11 September 2001 attacks on the
US to help support operations in neighbouring Afghanistan.
US reaction
The US said it has been advised of the exercises by both governments
but is not sending any observers.
“We expect that whatever activities take place would be ones that
would further what we believe is everybody’s shared goal of stability
and peace in the region,” US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack
said on Monday in Washington.
“We would hope that anything that they do is not something that would
be disruptive to the current atmosphere in the region”
Sean McCormack, spokesman, US State Department
“We would hope that anything that they do is not something that would
be disruptive to the current atmosphere in the region.”
Despite Russia and China’s shared interest in Central Asia, Beijing’s
main focus for now lies on Taiwan, which China lays claims to and
has threatened to invade if the island declares formal independence.
Earlier, Russian news reports said Beijing had pushed to have the
exercises staged closer to Taiwan – making it appear to be a possible
rehearsal for an invasion.
Analysts have noted the involvement of Russia’s Tu-95 strategic
bombers and Tu-22M long-range bombers in the exercises – warplanes
that can carry conventional or nuclear-tipped cruise missiles and
are not usually part of peacekeeping operations.
Tempting buyers
But the aircraft are expected to top China’s shopping list both to
deter US assistance to Taiwan in the event of a conflict and project
Chinese strength across the region.
During the drills, the Tu-95s will conduct demonstration flights in
the area while the Tu-22Ms will test-fire missiles at ground targets,
the deputy chief of Russia’s Land Forces in charge of the exercise,
Colonel-General Vladimir Moltenskoi, said last week.
General Yuri Baluyevsky, the head of the Russian armed forces general
staff, said in a newspaper interview last week that the aircraft were
taking part because the exercise is being staged far from Russian
bases and would help enforce a simulated aerial blockade.
But Russia’s air force chief said earlier this year that the bombers
would be involved in the exercises to tempt Chinese buyers.
“These weapons that China is buying are clearly designed for a possible
standoff over Taiwan,” said Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent defence
analyst based in Moscow.
Policy shift
The purchase of such strategic items in the past had been prevented
by the Russian military, which must approve all sales to outside
countries, he said.
“Having such exercises demonstrates the closeness of the two
militaries… This is a political-military exercise, much more
political than military”
Pavel Felgenhauer, independent defence analyst based in Moscow
“Having such exercises demonstrates the closeness of the two
militaries. That’s important if China wants to buy these weapons
systems,” he said. “This is a political-military exercise, much more
political than military.”
Beyond the sales pitch, it seems highly unlikely Russia would ever
join China in a fight over Taiwan, said Robert Karniol, Asia-Pacific
editor for military journal Jane’s Defence Weekly.
“There are no indications of coming together to form a strategic
alliance of Moscow and Beijing,” he said.
However, the exercise demonstrates a shift in the Chinese military’s
policy from its typical inward focus, Karniol said.
“They’ve come to increasingly accept multilateral solutions and
accepted the understanding that there are things to learn from
exercising with other countries,” he said.
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