COLLECTIVE DEFENSE AND THE CAUCASUS
by Sergei Konovalov, Victoria Panfilova
WPS Agency
May 16, 2012 Wednesday
Russia
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, No 87, May 16, 2012, pp. 1 – 2
HIGHLIGHT: EMPHASIS IN RUSSIA’S FOREIGN POLITICAL ACTIVITIES IS TO
BE MADE ON THE CIS COLLECTIVE SECURITY TREATY ORGANIZATION; Central
Asia – an area closely watched by the CIS Collective Security Treaty
Organization and NATO.
The CIS summit in Moscow yesterday was anything but a formality,
considering evolution of the CIS Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) into a structure that volunteers to shoulder
responsibility for military security in the post-Soviet zone.
Jubilee meeting of the CSTO Collective Security Council adopted
a special resolution. In it, countries comprising the collective
security system pledge to better their reaction to the threats and
challenges they encounter.
In fact, the CSTO is already an organization that is supposed to react
adequately to both external threats to its member states’ security and
to internal threats as well. Decisions to permit foreign countries to
establish military bases in the post-Soviet zone require a consensus.
Military cooperation will be focused on regular joint exercises and
other CSTO drills.
Exercise Cooperation’2012 of the CSTO Rapid Response Collective Forces
scheduled to take place on the territory of Armenia between September
3 and 8 was discussed at length behind the scenes at the summit.
According to CSTO Press Secretary Vladimir Zaintedinov, facilities of
shooting range Bagramjan will be used in the exercise this year. The
legend of the exercise is formulated as “Deployment of collective
security system means and CSTO Rapid Response Collective Forces
in the Caucasus”. It is known that CSTO United HQ Chief-of-Staff
Colonel General Saken Zhasuzakov of the Kazakh army will be one of
the commanders of the exercise.
By and large, vivid interest in the forthcoming exercise is quite
understandable. First, the United States and Israel would not abandon
their plans to strike at Iran, Armenia’s neighbor. In fact, these
strikes at Iran might be delivered this autumn and they will foment
a humanitarian catastrophe. It cannot help affecting Yerevan and the
102 Russian military base in Armenia. No wonder this is going to be
the first joint exercise in CSTO’s history to involve representatives
of the International Red Cross (these latter will practice bringing
relief aid to the regions badly affected by the conflict).
Second, Armenia itself is a participant in an armed conflicts with
Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Official Baku has been threatening
to renew the hostilities to liberate the territories occupied by
Armenia. Potentially, it makes the CSTO exercise in Armenia a hostile
gesture. At least, this is how Baku might interpret it even though
there is absolutely nothing about the exercise to show that the CSTO
might ever become involved in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Third, strategic exercise Caucasus’2012 is planned in the southern part
of Russia in September. It is only reasonable to link its legend with
the CSTO exercise in Armenia. Georgia, no longer a CIS country, already
expressed its displeasure but it may keep expressing displeasure all
it wants – for all the good it will do it.
Cooperation’2012 will take place. Period. According to Russian
Airborne Troops Commander-in-Chief Lieutenant General Vladimir
Shamanov, airborne units from all over Russia will be dispatched
to Armenia for the duration of the exercise – to participate in it
together with the personnel of the 102nd military base and units of
the Armenian regular army.
* * *
Invited to NATO summit in Chicago for the first time in history,
presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan declined the
invitations. Their press services said that the presidents were going
to miss the summit on May 20-21 and send foreign ministers in their
stead. There is no saying at this point who is going to represent
Tajikistan at the NATO summit. Official Dushanbe declines comments.
“These invitations extended to Central Asian leaders… are an
indication of changes within NATO itself. NATO countries intend to
strengthen their presence in different parts of the world, going
about it in close cooperation with friendly regimes,” said Dosym
Satpayev of the Risk Evaluation Group. According to Satpayev, this new
strategy itself acknowledges a rising number of conflicts worldwide and
confirms NATO’s certainty that Central Asia is a high-risk zone. “This
is the internal logic of NATO’s development… The Alliance aspires
to maximum involvement and participation in security mechanisms all
over the world,” said the expert.
Alexander Knyazev of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian
Academy of Sciences said, “The United States is out to settle in
the Central Asian region. Establishment of a network of military
objects in Central Asian countries is therefore a strategic objective
of American diplomacy. Washington regards Central Asia as quite an
important region. Being here, the United States will have a chance to
contain three major powers at once – China, Russia, and Iran.” Knyazev
said that Murgab located on the Tajik-Chinese border was of particular
interest to the Americans. “That’s a great locale for an ELINT center
to keep an eye on a substantial part of the territory of China…
Neither have the Americans forgotten about Aini airfield in
Tajikistan. President Emomali Rakhmon is playing into their hands,
deliberately or inadvertently. He said the other day that Russia’s
strategic interests notwithstanding, some other countries aspired to
military presence in Tajikistan too.” (Rakhmon said the following the
other day, “Foreign countries offer us the sky in return for military
bases and other objects… We do not even consider their offers.”)
In Kyrgyzstan, the United States is interested in retaining the transit
center in Manas (in Bishkek). In the southern part of the country
they Americans are interested in Batken and Osh. The agreement on the
transit center expires in 2014, and the Americans already initiated
talks over its extension. U.S. Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Pamela Spratlen
said the other day that official Washington earnestly hoped to reach
an agreement with the Kyrgyz government and elicit its permission
for existence of the transit center after 2014. The American diplomat
pointed out that Russia too was interested in international cooperation
for the sake of Afghani and Central Asian stability and security.
As for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, Knyazev reckoned that Washington
could be interested in the airfields and infrastructures on the their
territories. Sources within the Uzbek Foreign Ministry meanwhile
denied existence of the plans to let NATO countries establish military
bases in the republic. Sources within Kazakh power structures echoed
this disposition.
Satpayev said, “It does not take a genius to see that all these
countries are going to see NATO as a new player, and one that is not
to be ignored. Most countries in this region are members of the CSTO
and Shanghai Cooperation Organization… they cannot help being upset
by the increasing Chinese and Russian economic and military-political
influence. These countries therefore might choose to see the increase
of NATO’s influence and presence in the region as a counterweight…
as something that will restore what they perceive as parity. Besides,
elites in these countries stand to benefit from being nice to the
Americans, and that is also a factor that has to be taken into
account. Benefits are what Central Asian elites never miss a chance
to get.”
NATO countries sponsor Afghanistan, and Central Asian countries
would not mind getting a slice of this pie. “That’s bargaining, which
is what Central Asian countries are good at… loyalty and support
in return for certain dividends. Political and economic dividends,
of course,” said Satpayev.