TURKISH INITIATIVE: BLUFF OR REAL POLITICS?
Wednesday, 29 August 2012 15:56
Due to the summer vacations’ season, a kind of “dead season” has
reigned in the world of politics. But, as life in general and, in
particular, the political one cannot stand still at all, this calm is
disturbed by some political event or statement attracting certain
attention. The latter, perhaps, can include also the proposal of
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu on the organization, in
Istanbul, of negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which he made within the August 23 Summit
of the Council of Turkic-speaking States’ Cooperation held in Bishkek.
Surely, Turkey as a regional power has always played a prominent role
in the South Caucasus. Moreover, after the collapse of the Soviet
Union, which led to serious geopolitical changes and emergence of a
completely new situation, Ankara intensified its foreign policy in
order to strengthen its role as an influential regional player. Let us
remember, in particular, the initiative of Turkish Prime Minister
Erdogan on the creation of an alliance – “Platform of Stability and
Cooperation in the Caucasus”, which, as expected, in addition to
Turkey, would include Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. Let’s
recall that it was launched on August 12, 2008, that is, immediately
after the military phase of the crisis in the South Caucasus caused by
the Russian-Georgian war. Frankly, it was already clear that the
Turkish initiative would be dead in its tracks, as deep confrontations
existed between the member-states of the expected alliance (between
Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia and Georgia), which would hardly allow
enabling the peacekeeping potential of the “Platform” members. Life
has confirmed the validity of such a forecast – today, exactly four
years later, the noted initiative of Ankara has been successfully
forgotten.
How real is the realization of Ankara’s new initiative? Let’s say at
once – in search of an answer to this question it is extremely
difficult to get rid of skepticism. Here is why. Davutoglu’s proposal
cannot be taken seriously, especially because Turkey, by definition,
cannot be an impartial and objective mediator in the Karabakh
settlement process. It is Turkey that in tandem with Azerbaijan
exerted and continues to exert efforts to isolate Armenia, initiating
and implementing regional and international economic projects without
its participation. It is Turkey that still continues to blockade
Armenia and keeps close the border with it, which is qualified as an
element of military operations by international law. It is Turkey that
in the period of Azerbaijan’s armed aggression against the NKR
provided it with military-technical assistance and today, continues to
openly take a pro-Azerbaijani position in the process of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. Moreover, Ankara has never
concealed its alliance with Baku, which is legally documented today.
President Abdullah Gul stated directly: “We always stand for
Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s problem is my problem. There cannot be any
other option’.
Let’s note after the President of Turkey that there cannot be any
mediation by Ankara. However, the author of the initiative Davutoglu
is also well aware of it. With the above mentioned luggage of grave
sins (we cannot do without euphemisms – frank crimes), it is unreal to
claim to be a peace-loving dove. What, then, Ankara expects and what
are the true motives of its mediation?
Surely, it is naive to believe that by offering such an initiative,
Turkey was filled with purely pacifist ideas and concern for peace and
stability in the region. Such, if I may say so, diplomatic activity
is, above all, conditioned by own interests. And they are that, first
of all, to demonstrate to the international community its tolerance
and willingness to act as a fair peacemaker, expecting to gain
political dividends from its initiative. Second, it expects to earn
the reputation of a regional leader able to solve international
problems. Third, putting forward, in fact, a claim to the competence
of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship, under the aegis of which the
Karabakh settlement process is going on, Turkey is again trying to
squeeze into the format of negotiations in order to influence the
process and to achieve the desired outcome for itself and Azerbaijan
in the conflict resolution. Besides, it tries to accuse indirectly the
Minsk Group of the mediation disability, which Ankara and Baku have
repeatedly done, and tries to bring down the tendency of international
support for the self-determination of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Alas, Turkey, with its Bishkek initiative, will inevitably be
disappointed. Authoritative international organizations, including the
United Nations, the Council of Europe, the European Union and others,
pointed directly to the inevitability of the OSCE Minsk Group, the
format of which will not be changed in the nearest future, even if
Ankara and Baku wish this. And Armenia itself will hardly respond
positively to the proposal of the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Surely, Turkey also understands this, and hence its initiative on
Ankara’s hypothetical mediation is open bluff, which has nothing to do
with real politics.
Leonid Martirossian
Editor-in-Chief of Azat Artsakh newspaper
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