Soaring on the Wings of Imagination To Face the Inconvenient Reality
November 20, 2012
Andrew Demirdjian, Ph.D
A Commentary by Z. S. Andrew Demirdjian, Ph.D., the author of The
Viability of a Worldwide Armenian Organization.
Let us begin by testing the boundaries of our imagination. What if
you were told that in our life time animals will discover fire and
begin to BBQ (cook) their food? Your answer would be “Na” for this
would have profound implications for wildfire which would eventually
wipe out life on our plant.
What if you were told that in our life time we shall see trees begin
to walk to other locations in search of better nutrients and water?
Your likely answer would be “Nope” for this too would be having
drastic implications for our driving on the roads?
What if you were told that in our life time land birds shall begin
to swim? Again, you answer would be “not really” for this would also
have drastic implications for our sushi (seafood) supplies for human
consumption.
Most likely your responses to the above three questions are that
these assumptions are wild prognostication, a figment of one’s
imagination. Agreed.
What if you were told that the Azaris will begin in our life time
to wage war against Armenians in their attempt to recapture Artsakh
(Ngoro-Karabakh), (an Armenian historic province long before the
city of Tigranakert was built there in honor of King Tigranes the
Great during the Hellenistic Period from 323 BC to 31 BC)? Naturally,
the recapturing war would have dangerous consequences for the twin
Armenian republics.
What would be your response this time? Like many Armenians, if
you say “farfetched” or that the “chances are very slim” because
Russia is on our side and Azerbaijan will not dare to attack us or
that Armenia is very strong now -then, I challenge you to continue
reading this commentary to let your imagination soar to see the likely
eventuality. We do not want to see you caught by the enemy while you
are sleeping.
Table 1 contains some sobering statistics to convince you of the
growing danger from Azerbaijan as is objectively shown in the
statistical data of Armenia vs. Azerbaijan.
Table 1
Some Statistics* on Population, Economy, & Military
Armenia Azerbaijan Difference
Population:
2, 970,488 (2012) 9,493,600 (2012) 219% >Armenia
Population Growth Rate:
0.107 % (2012) 1.17% (2012) 990% >Armenia
Total Fertility Rate:
1.38 child./woman (2012) 1.92 child./woman 39%>Armenia
Budget Expenditures:
$2.57 billion (2011) $20.56 billion (2011) 700%>Armenia
Budget Revenues:
$1.92 billion (2009) $12.85 billion (2009) 569%>Armenia
Debt – External:
$7.34 billion (2011) $3.89 billion (2011) 88 %< Armenia
Exports:
$1.32 billion (2011) $23.48 billion (2011) 1680%>Armenia
Imports:
$3.54 billion (2011) $7.08 billion (2011) 100%>Armenia
GDP Purchas. Power Parity:
$17.95 billion (2011) $93.02 billion (2011) 420%>Armenia
GDP- Real Growth Rate:
4.6% (2011) 0.2% (2011) 2200 %< Armenia!
Unemployment Rate:
5.9% (2011) 1% (2011) 490 %< Armenia
Labor Force:
1.194 million (2011) 6.119 million (2011) 412%>Armenia
Armed Forces Personnel:**
6 units (2008) 54 units (2008) 800%>Armenia
41,000 (2008) 72,000 (2008) 76%>Armenia
Forces in aircraft:
6 units (2008) 54 units (2008) 800%>Armenia
Forces in Tanks:
110 units (2008) 220 units (2008) 100%>Armenia
Forces in helicopters:
8 units (2008) 15 units (2008) 88%>Armenia
Manpower – Males Ages 15-49:
919, 582 2,159,450 (2008) 135%>Armenia
Manpower – Reaching Military Age:
30, 548 (2008) 94,402 (2008) 209%>Armenia
*The sources of the above statistics are based on estimates provided
by the CIA (Central Intelligence Administration of the United States)
Factbook, Walden University Research Department, and Michigan State
University Research Center – and not by the Armenian or Azerbaijani
governments; (therefore, they are rather more reliable).
**The branches of the Armed Forces of Armenia consist of Ground
Forces, Nagorno-Karabakh Self Defense Force (NKSDF), Air Force and
Air Defense while the Azerbaijani Armed Forces consist of Air, Army,
Navy, Air and Air Defense Forces. While the stats on the population
and the economy of the two countries are current from 2011 and 2012,
the military estimates are from the year 2008 which were the latest
available. Military information is ordinarily sensitive and secrete.
During the last decade, however Azerbaijan has amassed greater
military might because of petro dollars and “allies” like Israel,
Turkey, and the USA.
Let your mind soar on the wings of imagination to see the daunting
reality of the impending national problems facing the Republic
of Armenia, and the Republic of Artsakh. Most of us adhere to the
fossilized idea that we are protected or even invincible and that Big
Brother Russia will come to the rescue in the event of a full-fledged
attack.
The twin Armenian republics are doing their best to be ready to
defend the motherland. The idea is not to alarm anyone but to serve
as a wake-up call to the Diaspora to get up and organize for such
an eventuality. History tells us that the Armenians have been caught
unprepared, unorganized too many times in the past. It seems we tend
not to learn from our experiences. Let us not use stone age speed
for moving forward.
As is shown in Table 1, Azerbaijan outshined Armenia in all the three
major areas of the population, economy, and the military. There was
only one exception in the economy area and that Armenia had a higher
GDP growth rate than Azerbaijan. In all other aspects, Azerbaijan
excelled with a flying color.
Azerbaijan’s might is predicated on its ethnic diversity consisting
of the amalgamation of Mountain Jews, Caucasian Albanians, Pontic
Greeks, Arabs, Armenians, Assyrians, Georgians, Persians, Kurds,
Turks to name a few. I read somewhere that during the Soviet era over
30,000 Armenian women had married with Azari men.
Azerbaijan’s might is also based on its main jihadist religion of
Islam, steady population growth, rising petro dollars and committed
allies. What I mean is that we are not dealing with a small primitive
nomadic Turkish tribe coming from Central Asia any more. Like Turkey,
Azerbaijan is achievement oriented with a vibrant population imbued
with many cultures.
While the Armenian Diaspora raises funds for roads, schools, and
housing, the defense of the two Armenian republics is relegated. We
need to beef up the defense without it our roads, schools, and houses
will probably be trodden and destroyed one of these days.
Akin to earthquake preparedness, it is imperative to face the near
future challenges looming on the horizon despite our reliance on
foreign intervention on and in our behalf.
If the Diaspora were organized, we would have made capital of the
recent release of the convicted murderer (Azerbaijani officer Ramil
Safarov) for the gruesome axing of an Armenian officer while in sleep
in 2004. NATO, Hungary, and Azerbaijan should have been put to shame
for the transfer, release and glorification of this mad man.
The criminal was not a lone man, or just one person. Condoning the
act, rewarding the criminal, treating the criminal as a national
hero indicates that Azerbaijan fails to meet the human standards of
Western civilization. The entire nation, therefore, has to be blamed
for glorifying the criminal who committed a barbarian act and whose
government not only condoned it, but also treated the heinous crime
as a brave act.
The Talmud has a saying: “Who can protest an injustice but does not
is an accomplice to the act”. To leave the destiny of Artsakh in the
hands of the Azaris would be a precarious proposition to say the least.
The barbaric act alone should justify to the rest of the civilized
world as to why the Armenians of Artsakh should remain independent
based on self-determination and not under the criminally minded
government of Azerbaijan.
In the event of war, a worldwide Armenian organization would play a
vital role in defending the motherland. How many Diaspora Armenians
would be willing and ready to come to the rescue of their brothers
and sisters should be known in advance? How many Diaspora Armenians
would volunteer for the defense? What basic preparedness is needed
and who would provide that, etc., etc.?
When Armenia is under attack, most of the young and able-bodied
Armenians are in overseas working. A large number of them are married
and have families. When war breaks out, it would be difficult to
respond to the call of duty. It would be chaotic as the war drags on.
Sustainability is the main issue here. How long can Armenia endure
the human and material loss as a result of protracted war?
A worldwide Armenian organization would instill and even boost
confidence in the twin Armenian republics that their brothers and
sisters have committed themselves to helping out with the conflict.
Such a social mobilization would also serve as a deterrent to the
enemy by showing that they will be facing the federation of the
Republic of Armenia, the Republic of Artsakh, and the formidable
Armenian Diaspora. In this way, we would be practicing management by
objectives rather than management by crisis.
History is mostly made by individuals rather than groups. We need
leaders to step forth and begin to organize the Diaspora.
A glance at the Armenian history would show one that Armenians have
been disunited even in the face of the enemy. Then as now, Armenians
have suffered from lack of a world organization as noted by many
non-Armenian observers.
Against the backdrop of increasing threat from Azerbaijan, we cannot
sleep while the sworn enemy readies for a forceful recapture of
Artsakh. Let us not kid ourselves about the power of Azerbaijan. Let
us take that as given even if we are wrong about it, and proceed
planning from that premise. As you well know, wars are not fought on
horseback nowadays nor are they carried on in the tranches anymore.
High-tech warfare has already been used in many of the recent
international conflicts. For example, weapons in Iraqi war have been
high-tech wonders, like unmanned drones that drop Hellfire missiles
on the enemy below, troupes like US Sergeant Christopher Lejeune went
into battle with different kind of weapons, one so stealthy that
few Americans even knew of its deployment. In today’s world, where
paradigm shifts are the order of the day, change is the only constant.
Many Armenians hold the notion that in the event of war with
Azerbaijan, Armenia will come out victorious. That may very well
be true, but the price of victory maybe too high. However, there
is such a thing as victory in defeat: the fateful epic Battle of
Avarayr (May 26, 451 AD) is a case in point. Also, there is defeat
in victory: the tiny Armenian nation cannot afford to lose any part
of its youth to war. Armenia is already bleeding from dual loss of
mostly able-bodied young men and women to debilitating brain drain,
skilled laborers and to the imperceptible jaws of assimilation of
the Diaspora around the world.
Unleash your imaginative powers to soar in the realm of possibilities
and to come up with the conviction that Armenians should unite
internationally in order to be able to face this impending calamity.
I know that most of you agree with that, yet hesitate to clear away
the negative energy of dwelling on our differences to put the muscle
behind the unity idea.
Our national purpose is bigger than our differences. Our only hope
is you, the young Armenian men and women, to come forth and put some
activation energy in our veins to make us find a common ground to
move forward and face the inconvenient reality of the growing threat
to our very existence.
Note: My special thanks go to Ms. Zara Mokatsian for her careful
review of the statistical data in Table 1.
http://www.armenianlife.com/2012/11/20/soaring-on-the-wings-of-imagination-to-face-the-inconvenient-reality/