ELECTION 2013: ARMENIAN PRESIDENT’S SECOND-TERM WIN DISPUTED BY OPPOSITION CANDIDATE
Global Insight
February 20, 2013
by Lilit Gevorgyan
Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan secured a first round victory
in the 18 February presidential election, but his main opponent,
Raffi Hovannisian, has refused to concede defeat, claiming that the
election results were rigged.
People’s will
The victory of the Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan on 18 February
came as no surprise, as prior to the election most of the opinion
polls were pointing at a clear lead for the incumbent, who is now set
to remain in office for another five years. According to the Armenian
Central Elections Commission, 60% of the former Soviet republic’s
voters took part in the polls. President Serzh Sargsyan, representing
the ruling Republican Party, gained an outright victory with 58.64% of
the votes. However, his key opponent and the leader of Heritage Party,
Raffi Hovannisian, came in second with an impressive 36.75% of the
total votes. The Armenian former prime minister Hrant Bagratyan gained
only 2.15%, followed by the leader of the National Self-Determination
Party, Paruyr Hayrikyan, who gained 1.23%. Hayrikyan’s votes are
relatively low, despite suggestions that the mysterious attempt on
his life on 31 January by unknown assailants may have helped boost
his support.
The veteran politician and Soviet era dissident gave contradictory
remarks following the assassination attempt as he launched a
thinly-veiled attack on Russia’s “imperial intentions”, but then
retracted his comments. The other three presidential candidates,
including Vardan Sedrakyan, the editor-in-chief of Radio Hye, who has
been on hunger strike in the past few weeks, all failed to gain more
than 1% of the vote.
Sargsyan was quick to address his campaign leaders and voters after
it became clear that he had won the race. He said that people had
expressed their will and made the right choice by backing him.
However, US-born Hovannisian denounced his victory. At a peaceful
opposition demonstration in Yerevan’s iconic Liberty Square, he urged
Sargsyan to admit that “the vote was not fair and the (official)
results do not reflect the people’s will”. Hovannisian’s spokesperson
Hovsep Khurshudyan said at a press conference that “these were shameful
elections with a huge number of violations.” In particular, the
opposition claims that despite a pledge by the authorities to ensure
that no so-called “carousel voting” (a practice which allows multiple
voting), would take place, this was not the case. They alleged that the
quickly disappearing ink used to mark passports, and already used for
voting, was part of the scheme. Western observers from the Organisation
for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) also noted the problem.
However, these allegations have been dismissed by the authorities,
which argue that the opposition has to accept “the people’s will”.
Sargsyan came to power in 2008 after being backed by former president
Robert Kocharian. However, his first term election was marred by
rare violent clashes between the opposition and riot police that
left at least 10 people dead on 1 March 2008. Both the opposition
and the government ensured that the latest election was conducted
in a peaceful manner, as noted by international observers. Avoiding
political violence is something that both the opposition and the
authorities agree on, as any outbreaks of unrest will be highly
damaging for Armenia’s efforts to pursue EU integration. Speaking at
the post-vote opposition rally, Hovannisian also pledged to pursue
his goal of a vote recount only through peaceful means, stating that
his first step would be appealing to Armenia’s Constitutional Court
to overturn the election results.
Observers’ dilemma
Clear frustration with the election results by many Armenian voters
has also put pressure on international observers, particularly from the
OSCE. Thus, shortly after the polling stations were closed, opposition
activists rallied to stop international monitors from giving their
preliminary conclusions, urging them to pay closer attention to
electoral violations. Nonetheless, the OSCE has proceeded with the
report saying that the vote on 18 February was a step forward in terms
of freedom of expression and organisation. However, Tonino Picula,
the head of the OSCE mission said: “This election showed improvement,
but lacked genuine competition,” adding “Competition is critical if
Armenia is going to live up to the aspirations of its people for a
vibrant and engaging democracy.”
The US State Department spokesperson, Victoria Nuland, as customary,
echoed the OSCE report by saying “We support the conclusions…that
the elections were generally well administered and characterised by
a respect for fundamental freedoms, including those of assembly and
expression.” Meanwhile, the Russian president Vladimir Putin was the
first to congratulate Sargsyan on his re-election.
Opposition supporters gather for a rally in Yerevan, Armenia, 17
March 2011.
Ref #: PA.10384666
The OSCE report also highlighted the problems with carousel voting,
and urged investigations into the opposition’s allegations. Picula also
highlighted that the voters expressed their apathy with a relatively
low turnout. Speaking of a lack of real competition, the head of
the OSCE mission said that it was concerned with the fact that major
political forces decided to effectively abstain from the political
race and not field any candidates.
The international monitors have been under pressure from Armenian
opposition parties to take a more critical stance on the elections.
The opposition’s attempt to disrupt the announcement of the
preliminary findings, and its subsequent disappointment with the
relatively positive report, is also likely to affect the importance
that grass-roots activists in particular attach to the international
monitors’ opinion in future.
Outlook and implications
The opposition, led by Raffi Hovannisian , stands little chance of
ousting Sargsyan unless Hovannisian manages to rise from his current
rank of a small party boss and become a national leader to inspire a
popular uprising. To his disadvantage, the major Armenian opposition
parties and blocs, including the Armenian National Congress (HAK) led
by the former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan, or millionaire politician
Gagik Tsarukyan of the Prosperous Armenia party, have been reluctant
to join Hovannisian thus far. The election campaign showed that
Sargsyan, much like many of his predecessors, had the advantage of
using administrative resources to help secure his victory. However,
the greatest aid to his victory came from the disunity of the
opposition parties. This reluctance has given rise to speculation
among the Armenian electorate that despite the facade, most of these
political forces remain part of the same set up. While Hovannisian ,
a US-born lawyer and Armenian former foreign minister, has all the
credentials to set him apart from the other political forces, he has
yet to prove his ability to capitalise on the significant vote that
he gained on 18 February. Hovannisian has effectively captured the
“no” vote of disenchanted urban professionals, and has also secured
votes from rural regions, including many in the south – which used
to be Sargsyan’s electoral stronghold.
For Hovannisian to succeed, he needs to overcome strong electoral
apathy, as many voters see Sargsyan’s rule for the next five years
as inevitable, particularly given the relatively strong support from
both from Russia and the EU.