Author: Kanayan Tamar

CENTRAL BANK OF ARMENIA LEAVES INTEREST RATE STABLE AS ACCELERATING INFLATION REMAINS BELOW TARGET

Global Insight
April 3, 2013

by Venla Sipila

The Board of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) in its 26 March meeting
decided to leave the key policy interest rate unchanged at 8%, where
it has remained since late 2011. The latest inflation data from the
Armenian National Statistics Service show that consumer prices in
March rose by 3.4% year-on-year (y/y), following a gain of 3.1% y/y
in February and 2.6% y/y in January. Meanwhile, in month-on-month
(m/m) terms, prices last month grew by 0.4%, after retreating by
the same relative rate in February. Among the main price categories,
non-food goods saw the highest gain, with an average inflation rate
of 5.5% y/y. Food prices climbed by 3.2% y/y, while service tariffs
rose by 2.3% y/y. The average annual inflation rate for the first
quarter of the year came in at 3.0% y/y, while the cumulative price
gain since the beginning of the year made 2.9%. Notwithstanding the
acceleration, Armenia’s inflation rate still clearly remains below
the CBA’s central target rate of 4%, although the variation range of
+/1.5% implies that it has reached the lower bound of the band.

When announcing its latest interest rate decision, the CBA board
noted that no marked external inflationary pressures are likely in
the coming months, while also domestic demand-side impacts on prices
should remain moderate. Overall economic growth has recently proved
stronger than expected, but fiscal policy has been more restrictive
than was projected when the CBA’s monetary policy was outlined. Fiscal
restraint counteracts the boosting impact on private spending related
to the surprisingly strong overall growth in the industrial and
service sectors. Consequently, the Board expects annual inflation
to reach the central target of 4% in the second quarter of 2013,
then remaining fairly stable in the coming quarters.

Significance:Even as the latest interest rate decision was taken
shortly before the March inflation results were published, we believe
that the CBA’s inflation outlook is fairly plausible. Indeed, its
projections well match with our outlook; our current projection
for Armenia’s average inflation rate in 2013 stands at 4.4%. Thus,
we believe that the CBA will retain its refinancing rate unchanged in
the near term as well. A key risk to the inflation outlook is posed by
the development of food prices; if harvests prove disappointing, the
inflationary push from this source could be potentially significantly
stronger than currently foreseen.

CRUNCH TIME: OPPOSITION LEADER CALLS FOR MASS ‘INAUGURATION DAY’ RALLY ON APRIL 9

VOTE 2013 | 05.04.13 | 20:06

Raffi Hovannisian, the official runner-up in the February 18
presidential ballot who disputes President Serzh Sargsyan’s reelection,
has called on his supporters to gather en mass in Yerevan next Tuesday
to “inaugurate a new Armenia”.

April 9 is the day when Sargsyan is due to be sworn in for a second
five-year presidential term. The opposition, however, plans an
“alternative” inauguration of Hovannisian on that day.

Enlarge Photo

“We are coming from all over the country to get rid of this
government,” said Hovannisian, addressing supporters at another
Yerevan rally in Yerevan on Friday.

The opposition challenger, who has completed another tour of the
regions this week visiting communities and meeting with provincial
folks, urged people from across Armenia to gather in Yerevan’s Liberty
Square on April 9, beginning at 11 am, to witness the “declaration
of a new Armenia.”

Hovannisian said that later that day a march will be staged “to return
the power to the people.”

“Struggle is today… It depends upon us. We will stand and will not
kneel down,” the opposition leader emphasized.

At the same time, Hovannisian said that until April 9 he was still
ready to listen to and appreciate any message from President Sargsyan
or Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II or lack thereof.

PARTIALLY RESTORED ALEPPO ELECTRICITY THE ONLY POSITIVE CHANGE DURING LAST FEW DAYS

18:18, 5 April, 2013

YEREVAN, APRIL 5, ARMENPRESS: Issues connected with electricity are
gradually resolving in Aleppo. This was noted by Press Secretary of
the Armenian National Prelacy Jirair Reisian in the interview with
Armenpress, underlining that even those little positive changes assured
the high spirit of residents. Issues on water have also been resolved.

Referring to Sheikh Maksoud district it is necessary to note that it
remains to be the target of clashes. Bullets are spreading fear in the
neighboring district, with a lot of Armenians living there. Residents
avoid going out from their apartments in order to be safe.

In accordance with the UN data, 70 thousand people were killed during
23 months ongoing clashes in Syria. Over 1 million citizens have
become refugees.

HERITAGE NOT ALLOWED TO MARCH ON BAGHRAMYAN AVE

06:52 PM | TODAY | POLITICS

Yerevan Municipality has refused the application of the Heritage party
to hold a march along Proshyan street and Baghramyan avenue in Yerevan
on April 9. The Municipality has offered the party alternative streets,
vice-chairman of the Heritage party Armen Martirosyan announced at
Freedom Square during the recurrent rally held by Heritage Leader
Raffi Hovannisian.

YEREVAN MUNICIPALITY NOT TO RESETTLE RESIDENTS OF BREAKAWAY BUILDING TO THE NEW DWELLING HOUSE BUILT FOR THEM (PHOTOS)

15:55 ~U 03.04.13

Hostel building in Yerevan Artsakh street is to be destroyed. People
there are living in inhuman conditions while the new building they
were promised to be moved in is already ready while the municipality
is not hurrying to resettle the residents.

The people are concerned that the municipality has changed its mind
and is not going to provide the building on Yerevan 22 Sisikian street
to them, and instead is speaking of construction of a new building,
delaying the issue artificially.

Speaking to Tert.am, the residents noted that two months ago
the municipality representatives were hurrying them demanding to
prepare all the necessary documents promising to move them to the new
building. Afterwards they stated that a new building will be built
for them.

One of the residents Karine Hakobyan said the building planned for
them is ready while they cannot move there. “How can we wait more? For
ten years we are living in this terrible conditions and now we have
to live here for another years. We can’t bear it anymore,” she said.

The building people live in has no roof, the rain waters are in the
houses, stones are falling from ceiling.

“I am here from 2003. From that time till now I hear wait a little
while this little is not ending,” a resident Evelina Petrosyan said.

Asked to explain the issue, the municipality informed that the building
is included in 4-degree breakaway buildings list from 2009 subjected
to elimination. The residents of the building are to be moved from
there with the state means, while the government has not provided
sums for it.

“Taking into consideration the necessity of urgent solution to
the issue, the Yerevan municipality has applied to the finance and
urban development ministries proposing co-financing for the creation
of dwelling house, but the proposal was not brought to life,” the
municipality’s written response says.

“Taking into consideration the necessity of speedy solution of the
issue, and multiple applications of the residents Yerevan municipality
will continue searching for ways to start the process of moving of the
residents from the building as soon as possible,” the response says.

Though the municipality failed to answer whether the residents’
concerns about the building are justified or not.

In 2011 the municipality has stated that contracts will be signed with
the citizens who want to resettle and they will get apartment in 22
Sisakyan str building which was to be exploited from September 2012.

Though the building has not been put into exploitation, it is
completely ready. Arayik Mejlumyan, one of the workers there said they
have finished the work and handed the building to the municipality. He
said he does not want to say much but knows that the building is
intended for insecure people.

JAILED KURDISH MILITANT LEADER EXPECTED TO MAKE FRESH PEACE CALL

April 3, 2013 – 17:02 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Pro-Kurdish politicians traveled on Wednesday,
April 3 to a Turkish island where jailed Kurdish leader Abdullah
Ocalan was expected to pronounce on efforts to end a decades-old
insurgency that has killed 40,000 people, Reuters reported.

A government official said a co-leader of the pro-Kurdish Peace and
Democracy Party (BDP) and two BDP lawmakers were visiting Ocalan in
his jail on Imrali island, south of Istanbul.

Local media suggested the militant leader would call on his Kurdistan
Workers Party (PKK) to begin withdrawing fighters from Turkey,
despite a dispute with Ankara over terms of the pullout.

The PKK leadership in the mountains of northern Iraq has demanded legal
protection to prevent any military attack on them during their planned
departure after decades of fighting, a call rejected by the government.

“Ocalan will officially launch the withdrawal process,” Eyup Can,
editor of the liberal Radikal newspaper which has closely followed
the peace process, wrote on Twitter.

The PKK declared a ceasefire with Turkey last month in response to
an order from Ocalan after months of talks with Ankara to halt a
conflict which began in 1984.

The next step is a transfer of PKK fighters from Turkish territory
to their bases in the mountains of northern Iraq, but the militants
say they could be vulnerable to attack from Turkish troops unless
parliament gives them legal protection.

Hundreds of PKK fighters are estimated to have been killed in clashes
with security forces during a previous withdrawal in 1999 after
Ocalan’s capture and conviction for treason.

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has said he guarantees there will be
no repeat of such fighting, but opposes legislation, instead saying
the rebels should disarm before heading for Iraq to remove the risk
of firefights with Turkish forces.

The PKK, designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States
and European Union, launched its insurgency with the aim of carving
out an independent state in mainly Kurdish southeast Turkey, but
later moderated its goal to autonomy.

Pro-Kurdish politicians are focused on expanding minority rights and
stronger local government for the Kurds, who make up about 20 percent
of Turkey’s population of 75 million people.

ARMENIAN EX-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE COMMITTED TO HIS IDEAS – VIDEOS

TERT.AM
16:49 ~U 03.04.13

At his public meeting in Sevan, Armenian ex-presidential candidate
Raffi Hovannisian, stated that he has not given up his ideas.

“So if you want, we can have an Armenia that belongs to our country
and future,” Mr Hovannisian said.

He said that he respects anyone and does not wish anything bad.

CHILDREN ARE SYMBOL OF OUR STRUGGLE – RAFFI HOVANNISIAN

April 03, 2013 | 15:06

SEVAN. – Symbol of the struggle of the popular movement is not
politicians, but children and elderly people, Raffi Hovannisian said
during a rally in the town of Sevan on Wednesday.

“The symbols of our struggle are school children, students, their
grandparents who live for the sake of their country and family:
ordinary people, small shopkeepers, traders and policemen. Yes,
we are struggling for their future, for our future,” the opposition
leader said.

He urged residents of Sevan to participate in the April 9 mass rally
in the capital Yerevan.

News from Armenia – NEWS.am

NEWSPAPER: GETTING A SHARE IN CARREFOUR ARMENIA, THE HEAD OF THE COMMITTEE FOR STATE REVENUES PUT DOWN ARMS

ARMINFO
Wednesday, April 3, 15:32

Activity of the French chain of hypermarkets Carrefour in Armenia
was impeded mainly by Gagik Khachatryan, Head of the Committee for
State Revenues, a local Zhamanak Daily writes.

However, Gagik Khachatryan has calmed down to some extent after he
acquired a share in the Carrefour Armenia branch, the paper writes.

Carrefour Regional Office in Dubai was to open Carrefour in Armenia.

Hearing of the project in Armenia Khachatryan has managed to get his
share, the paper writes.

“As we have already said before the authorities make parliamentarian
Samvel Aleksanyan sell his chain of supermarkets Yerevan City to
Carrefour. By our data, it is Gagik Khachatryan’s idea and now he
is trying to contribute to this deal by all means possible. If the
deal takes place, Carrefour Company that was expected to stiffen
competition in the Armenian market will become a monopolist,” the
authors of the article say.

POLL SHOWS VOTER INDIFFERENCE TO COUNCIL ELECTION IN ARMENIAN CAPITAL

Mediamax, Armenia
April 3 2013

LENGTH: 235 words

Yerevan, 3 April: As of the results of the poll conducted by Sociometer
sociological centre on 29-30 March, only 21.4 per cent of the voters
are familiar with the order of Yerevan Council of Elders elections.

Director of the centre Aharon Adibekyan said that about 67 per cent
of the polled (1,290) are ready to take part in the Council of Elders
elections, Mediamax reports.

“16.7 per cent of the voters think that they will directly elect
Yerevan Mayor, 12 per cent of them are going to elect the Council
of Elders which will then elect the Mayor. About 17 per cent had
difficulties answering while the remaining 21.4 per cent were aware
that they will elect the Council of Elderly by the party list which
will later elect the Mayor,” said Aharon Adibekyan.

82.1 per cent of the voters were aware of the [ruling] RPA [Republican
Party of Armenia] out of the participating political forces, 58.4
per cent – PAP [Prosperous Armenia] and 41.2 per cent – [opposition]
Heritage party.

73.6 per cent of the polled noted Taron Margaryan in the presented
first candidates, 29.9 per cent – Vardan Oskanyan (PAP),13.6 per
cent – Armen Martirosyan (Heritage), 7.5 per cent – Armen Yeritsyan
(Orinats Yerkir [Law-Governed Country]) and Armen Rustamyan ([Armenian
Revolutionary Federation-] Dashnaktsutyun).