ARMENIA TAKES ONE STEP TOWARDS EUROPE
Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
IWPR Caucasus Reporting #696
Aug 9 2013
Immediate effect will be to ease visa process; broader trade benefits
will come later.
By Yekaterina Poghosyan – Caucasus
An impending deal with the European Union should be good news
for Armenia’s struggling economy. But economists warn that the
benefits of trade on preferential terms will take a long time to
make themselves felt, because Armenia’s economy is in no shape to
compete internationally.
Negotiations on the “Association Agreement” were successfully completed
on July 24, and once it is signed at a meeting in Lithuania at the end
of November, it will result in lower tariff and other barriers between
Armenia and the EU, offering the country access to a massive market.
One immediate benefit is that Armenians will find it easier to get
visas for the Schengen Zone, which includes most EU states.
Closer association with the EU has been a key aim of Armenian foreign
policy for most of the post-Soviet period.
Yerevan joined the European Neighbourhood Policy in 2004, opening the
way to cooperation on justice matters, human rights, energy and more.
Five years later came the Eastern Partnership, an EU initiative to
broaden cooperation with near-neighbours Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia,
Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus.
Talks on the Association Agreement with Armenia have taken three years.
In a statement, the EU commissioners for external affairs and
enlargement, Catherine Ashton and Stefan Fule, said the agreement
would “allow the EU and Armenia to drive forward together a programme
of comprehensive modernisation and reform based upon shared values,
political association and economic integration”.
“The agreement will have a direct positive impact on daily life and
will bring Armenia and all its citizens closer to the European Union,”
the joint statement said.
Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, a deputy foreign minister who was Armenia’s chief
negotiator on the agreement, said he anticipated that the deal would
finally be signed, ratified and in force by 2017 or 2018.
Officials say the deal could lead to a boost in trade between Armenia
and the EU, already its biggest trading partner. But implementing
the agreement will take time.
William van der Geest, a consultant on trade matters based in Yerevan,
said the Armenian economy would take a long time to reach international
standards, and judging by the experiences of countries like Romania
and Bulgaria, there would be a transitional period before the terms
of the deal could be fully implemented.
One decisive factor, he said, would be addressing the monopolies that
currently dominate in Armenia.
“There are monopolies in the economy everywhere,” he said. “The
question is about how we control them. This supervision process must
allow new businesses to enter the market.”
Van der Geest predicts that “it will take five to seven years for the
average Armenian to see the difference. In the long term, however,
residents of Armenia will see a greater choice of goods and services on
offer in their country. Thanks to the reduction of obstacles to import,
goods will get cheaper. The growth of exports will create more jobs.”
Some commentators say the average Armenian has no idea of the
significance of the EU agreement or its implications for them
personally.
“Even the country’s parliament is only superficially informed about
the points in the deal. The time has come to tell the people what
the purpose of this agreement is,” said Naira Zohrabyan, head of the
parliamentary commission for European integration.
In Zohrabyan’s opinion, the key aspects of the deal are the prospect
of economic integration with Europe, impetus to combat corruption,
and free movement for Armenian nationals.
She said the agreement should help keep the pressure on Armenia’s
leaders to change the way politics and business were conducted.
“Armenia will be forced to undertake concrete, specific reforms,
rather than just issuing announcements with neither the political will
nor the readiness to implement them, which is what the government
has always done up to now,” she said. “If, after the Vilnius summit
[in November], Armenia slows the pace of reforms, I am certain the
EU will be able to impose sanctions.”
An agreement unveiled last November and due to come into force later
this year already allows for simplified – and cheaper – Schengen visa
procedures for certain categories like official delegations, academics,
students, journalists, sportspeople, artists, and relatives of anyone
with permanent residency.
“Of course, at first the simplification of visas affects only a
few sections of the population – students, academics, journalists
and politicians,” Zohrabyan said. “But all the same, it will be a
very important step. The degrading conditions for Armenian citizens
applying for a Schengen visa at the moment are simply not appropriate
to the current level and nature of Armenian-EU relations.”
Yekaterina Poghosyan is a reporter for the Mediamax agency in Armenia.
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