PUTIN IS A GIFT FOR WEST AND HIS LIFE WILL BE PROLONGED
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments – 14 October 2014, 23:38
Not a long time ago Putin insisted that the Russian General Staff
develop an operative plan of a large-scale landing operation in
Nikolayev and Odessa in order to annex these territories and thereby
leave Ukraine land-locked. It is clear that this would lead to the
annexation of Transdniestr and the Danube territories, which would
further strengthen Russia’s positions in the Black Sea Caucasus,
as well as the Mediterranean.
For a long time Moscow refused this plan because it would lead to a
clash with NATO. Developments that had not been planned by Russians
took place in the southeast of Ukraine which are occupied by Russian
troops. It became known that in the result of military actions the
Russian population is being displaced from these territories whereas
the Ukrainian population continues to stay there.
Each day of the war costs Russia 1-3 million dollars but this is
not the end. Russia did not succeed taking Mariupol, on which the
prospects of the southeast depended. The Ukrainians have moved on
to new methods of military actions, underground and guerilla war is
underway. The Russian propaganda has run out of resources and there
are new propaganda scenarios.
Having received the assistance and support of the West, Ukraine quickly
reorganized the armed forces. Of course, completion of this work will
last for many years but irregular groups of militants were bidden,
which was a success.
Moscow’s attempts to initiate protests of the Russian population of
Ukraine caused a backlash among Ukrainians and terrifying excesses
in several places. Russians and Ukrainians of Ukraine demonstrated
wisdom and did not go for such initiatives. Otherwise, Ukraine would
have turned to a bloody medley.
Moscow seems to be satisfied with the halves of Donetsk and Lugansk
that the Russians were able to take under their control. However, the
Russians are in embarrassment because they do not understand how to
report this occupation in a more or less legitimate way. The Russian
humanitarian science has not offered anything worth attention but
apparently it was not willing to offer anything. Russia does not need
these territories, not even in strategic terms but they are necessary
for Putin’s image. This is the purpose of this mess.
However, Russia is mainly focusing on the ways of escaping the
international isolation in which this huge country has appeared. The
United States and NATO have achieved their goals, i.e. created the
premises for the political and economic isolation of Russia, and they
need not weaken the isolation and return Russia among “designated”
countries.
It is clear that such tendencies as decrease of oil prices are
something new in the world and Europe and are intended to force Russia
to put up with the requirements of the West.
Russia’s two hopes – China and Germany -demonstrated extreme egotism.
China is trying to benefit from this difficult situation for Russia
and pump resources out of Russia for reasonable prices. Unlike other
states, Germany has used this situation to turn Russia to a priority
market for German industries.
Developments in Russia were an effective lever for normalization of
the global economy, shrinking and expanding of the European and Asian
markets, initiation of micro-crises of a regional scope.
An important goal is to mobilize and provide new purpose to NATO
which needs purposes for its goals and objectives.
“In some ways, NATO should thank Vladimir Putin,” Heather Conley,
senior vice president for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic of the
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said. “It
was really searching for its purpose … and it was having a fairly
significant identity crisis. And it has now not only been repurposed,
it’s been reinvigorated.”
NATO purposes are a political and economic locomotive, first of
all, for the defense industry. At the same time, in its present
situation Russia is becoming a suitable target for manipulations
in all directions. The role of low-pay security guard is envisaged
for Russia in Eurasia to parry the expansion of China and Islamic
radicals towards Central Asia. At the same time, it is a scarecrow
for Central Europe and Japan.
Strangely, Russia is going through a transition from red
authoritarianism to a right one, and there is no chance to avoid this
path because the present regime is falling to pieces, and nobody has
a vision of the next regime. Among the narrow circles of Moscow-based
politicized authors Sergey Kurginyan preferred describing the current
political period in Russia as “rise before fall”, as well as the
“price for ignoring post-modern rules”.
However, the West does not mind Putin’s further rule, which guarantees
continuation of non-professionalism and profanation. Vladimir Putin is
a gift for the West and his political life will be possibly prolonged.
According to Moscow think-tanks, there are no groups in Vladimir
Putin’s team because there is no motivation to create groups. Everyone
is thinking for themselves, and everyone is trying to figure out the
future of the team and the president and thereby figure out their
own future. This indicates embarrassment.
The army is especially dissatisfied which is receiving a new
introductory note every week, first of all, on Ukraine’s goals. The
Ministry of Defense has already received a note on what problems are
coming up, , especially with the budget.
The Kremlin is sending all kinds of recommendations to government
agencies relating to certain goals in nearby regions, including the
South Caucasus. Apparently, Vladimir Putin is linking his image to
success in these directions which, however, leads to more problems.
The hangout of the Eurasian company in Minsk demonstrated how helpless,
uncertain and weak Russia is, and all it is capable of is influencing
Armenia. Relations with Belarus and Kazakhstan became uncertain
and suspicious.
The Eurasian project is transforming to an instrument of Turkish policy
and Azerbaijan’s caprice and difficult problems with the future state
of Russia are linked to the Eurasian project. This project will always
remain a marker of isolation and blockade, marginal existence of all
the participants.
To a certain degree such formations as CSTO and the Eurasian project
are favorable for the United States and NATO because the target
and borders of influence of Russia have been identified. They have
become a giant buffer on the Eurasian space in which Russia acts as
a watchdog of this degrading area.
Under such conditions, even without possible big conflict in Central
Asia involving Russia, the conflict in Ukraine which has become
chronic is sufficient to realize the model of Vietnam for Russia, i.e.
a lasting battle with ensuing consequences.
Ukrainian “Vietnam” will resolve a lot of issues of European security
and will waste huge resources of Russia’s. Will the South Caucasus
succeed staying aloof of these developments? Not, of course. The
South Caucasus is fully involved in these developments, and the closer
the countries of the region are connected with Russia, the worse the
consequences will be for them.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33100#sthash.FeLBd9yp.dpuf