EAEU AND KARABAKH DRAUGHT
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Oct 15 2014
14 October 2014 – 8:13am
Yuri Glushakov exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Accession of Armenia into the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) finally
determined a course of development of the country for future decades,
which will be directed at full dependence on Russia. Considering
its political interests, Moscow agreed to take Yerevan “aboard,”
convincing its partners in the Union that Russia itself would pay
for consequences of such a decision.
The thesis is confirmed by distribution of sums of customs rates,
which will come to the EAEU from import of goods. Since January 2nd,
2015, the beginning of the Union’s work, Armenia will get 1.13% of the
whole sum of customs duties. The figure appeared due to reduction of
Russia’s share in the “customs pie” from 88% to 86.97%. At the same
time, shares of Belarus and Kazakhstan will decrease only by 0.05%,
Minsk will get 4.65%, Astana – 7.25%.
According to the head of the IMF mission in Armenia, Mark Horton, the
general volume of customs duty resources which will fill the Armenian
budget next year is going to be about $150-200 million. He thinks that
the Armenian government can spend the money for expenditure items of
the budget, that will influence the country’s economy positively.
But this is not all: Armenia has got a respite till 2022 for launching
common customs duties for the EAEU. Till 2020 the country will use
its own rates for some milk products, eggs, and honey; till 2019 some
rates will remain for some fruits and nuts. Some kinds of civilian
helicopters and aircrafts which are imported to Armenia, as well as
goods necessary for construction and modernization of the nuclear
power plant will also stay free from customs duties till 2022.
Another important customs bonus for Armenia is a benefit for import of
military products for the Armed Forces of Armenia, if their analogues
are not produced in other member countries of the Union. Of course
construction of the nuclear power plant and export of weapons to
Armenia will be provided by Russia. It will sponsor Armenian economy.
The general sum of Russia’s “donations” for accession of Armenia into
the EAEU will be about $1 billion annually. By 2022 the sum could
increase by $10 billion, considering investments into construction
of the NPP and export of weapons.
Not all Armenian political forces stood against such presents from
Moscow, but the majority of them focused their attention on another
aspect of the EAEU deal: accession of Armenia into the new Union
within borders recognized by the UN. Surprisingly, Serge Sargsyan’s
consent to accession of Armenia without Nagorno-Karabakh caused a heavy
discussion. The opposition mass media which supports integration with
the EU accused the President of betrayal of the Karabakh movement.
It is surprising, as Armenia doesn’t recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as a
state or a constituent of Armenia. Other countries have even fewer
reasons for taking responsibility and being involved into disputes
in the conflict zone. At least it was strange to read such phrases in
the Armenian media: “Armenia is deprived of its right for independent
foreign policy, including on the Armenian issue.” What did prevent
them from showing their independence in their position earlier?
If Nagorno-Karabakh is an unrecognized formation, why should Moscow,
Minsk, and Astana consider the territory a part of Armenia? The
countries of the Union need no grey zones which could be sources of
conflicts. That’s why Armenia is recognized within borders which are
internationally recognized, i.e. without Karabakh and eastern Turkish
provinces which are marked as the Armenian issue in Yerevan.
As for Azerbaijani euphoria that Karabakh is eliminated from Yerevan’s
influence within the EAEU, it is understandable. Baku has been proving
obvious truth on recognition of borders and occupation of seven regions
along with Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia for too long. The so-called
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic which tried to be promoted by Yerevan to
the EAEU declares that it includes Azerbaijani regions which didn’t
belong to Karabakh.
What will happen next to Armenia and occupied Karabakh? Of course
we cannot expect building of customs checkpoints on the border of
Armenia and Karabakh, i.e. Armenia and Azerbaijani territory (the
former NKAO had no common border with Armenia) in next few months.
Alexander Iskandaryan, the director of the Caucasus Institute, noted
that only mass media reported on establishing of a customs checkpoint
between Armenia and the NKR; there were no official messages.
We can assume that products made in Karabakh will get to Russian
markets and probably markets of other EAEU countries illegally. Moscow
will diplomatically ignore it. Products made in the unrecognized
territory can be seen not only in Russia today. It is exported to
the UAE, Jordan, other countries of the Middle East. Legalization of
products takes place in Yerevan. To meet requirements of the EAEU,
it will be enough to write a Yerevan address on a package. It will
be enough. Only adherence to principles of members of the Union is
able to reveal illegal goods and cut off their flow.
At the same time, it will be difficult to substitute volumes of
economic ties between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. In 2013 the general
volume of NKR’s revenues was about $70 million. Such volumes are at
the level of margin for the EAEU countries. So, Russia will close
eyes for the Karabakh hole which will inevitably attract cheating
players. Only settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, deoccupation
of the territories and further opening of borders between Armenia
and Azerbaijan and Turkey could close the hole. Russia diplomacy will
have to do its best to convince Yerevan that such a step is necessary,
otherwise the Karabakh draught blow off the building of the new Union,
just like in the early 1990s.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/61017.html