CAUCASUS NOT KEY REGION FOR ISLAMIC STATE – ARMENIAN EXPERTS
16:31 * 14.01.15
The Islamists’ ambitions to target the Caucasus are mainly limited
to rhetorics, an Armenian orientalist has said, pointing out to
Azerbaijan and Russia’s restraining counteraction.
“The fighting Islamism’s strategy is a global one, and the goal is
to create a Caliphate. The medieval Arab-Islamist state’s borders
are known to have embraced the Caucasus, including Armenia. That’s
one of the reasons that the Caucasus has appeared in the Islamists’
strategic program,” Araks Pashayan, a specialist in Arab studies,
told Tert.am, considering serious steps almost unlikely.
“I don’t think the Islamic State’s geography will extend beyond Iraq
and Syria at the current stage,” she said, speaking further of Turkey’s
possible involvement.
Noting that Turkey has its own plans, the expert said she finds the
IS a good stronghold for Turkey to fight both Syrian and Kurdish
movements. “Turkey’s role in the Middle East processes is strictly
negative. They for many years aided, trained and offered healthcare
services to jihadists to help them cross into Syria and so on,”
Pashayan said, pointing out to Turkey’s role in the undermining of
the Arab world’s security.
“I think Turkey also pursues cautious policies towards Islamism,
as Ankara sees that that the expansion of extremist moods may have
an undermining effect for Turkey. Turkey helps direct the Jihadist
resources to the intended target,” she said, remembering the country’s
support to Wahabbists during the Russian-Chechen war.
According to the political analyst Levon Shirinyan, the Islamist want
but do not yet plan any specific step to reach the region. “The whole
Europe would like the Islamic State to hit the Caucasus not Paris,”
he said, adding that he doesn’t see any threat to Armenia.
The expert further called for remembering that the Islamist policies
are built upon the Panturkist ideology. “I don’t think the Caucasus
issue is actual for Islam. Hence, it isn’t even right to discuss the
issue given that they have targeted Europe,” he said, adding that he
sees the Turkish intelligence services now back the Islamists.
“I believe that Islam will launch a fresh attack; there will be several
attack in the European environment to stir up a mess among the Turks
in Europe,” he said, pointing out to the big European communities in
Germany and France.
“I have proposed that Europe take rapid efforts towards steps to
strengthening and offering redress to Armenia. Turkey can be restrained
with the Armenian Genocide strait jacket as are the Germans with the
Holocaust one,” he added.
Political analyst Sergey Shakaryants believes that all the threats
by the Islamic State leaders should be taken seriously because US
special services are architects of the organization.
He points out the fact that some of the organization members are
of Caucasian descent. Armenia, in cooperation with other states,
which are interested in curbing Islamists’ activities, should develop
mechanisms of resistance.
“We remember that Armenians were the first targets of terrorism in the
Caucasus, particularly the Armenians in Artsakh [Nagorno-Karabakh],”
he said.
As regards the Turkish factor, Mr Shakaryants said:
“The USA long ago assigned Turkey the role of a state furthering the
Islamic State’s activities. This is the reason why it keeps on refusing
to recognize it as a terrorist organization, calling on other states
not to recognize the Islamic State as a terrorist organization.”
As regards threats posed by the Islamic State, the Caucasus is one
of the targets because the USA and Turkey are pressing Armenia’s
authorities into recognizing present-day Armenian-Turkish border.
“That would put an end to the Treaty of Kars because Armenians
themselves will both recognize Kars as part of Turkey and waiver
their right to Nakhijevan forever,” Mr Shakaryan said.
In terms of oil and gas reserves, Russia is a more probable target
for the USA-hired Islamists than Azerbaijan.