Author: Kanayan Tamar

Lragir, Armenia
Nov 24 2006

SALARY IS EVIDENCE BUT ALSO THE ONLY LEGAL THING

On November 27 the National Assembly is going to discuss the state
budget bill and decide what to do with it. There is no need to worry
about the budget. We may even be sure that this bill will be passed.
And not because it will be discussed on November 27. This date is
highly mystical. It is a time when nobody does anything, but as a
result something happened. For instance, nobody votes to the
referendum on Constitution, but it turns out that the referendum was
adopted with queues of voters everywhere. So, in the end it may turn
out that the members of the parliaments of the previous convocations
came and voted for the budget. The government perhaps chose the day
of the extraordinary meeting on purpose in order not to have the
members of parliament control the situation. The bill on
expropriation taught a good lesson to the executive, and even if
Tigran Torosyan is not in the parliament, an important document such
as the budget should not be exposed to risk.

However, the government need not worry. Even if the budget is not
passed, no one in the country will feel that there is no budget. Of
course, the pensions and benefits, as well as the salaries of
state-financed workers may be endangered. However, today it is
impossible to live on the benefit or pension of the budget, and the
state-financed workers would even be happy if their salary was not
paid from the budget. The point is that the salary fills them with
remorse. For instance, the doctor whose salary is raised by the
government feels remorse when he takes the fee from the patient,
because thus the patient pays the doctor twice: first, through the
budget, as a taxpayer, and second, in cash, as a customer. Meanwhile,
the doctor would be happy to get only from the hand of the patient.

The government raises the salary of the teacher ruthlessly, whereas
the teacher would be happy not to get a salary at all. Thus he would
have more moral rights to ask money from the students or their
parents for curtains, brooms, vaccum cleaners, tablecloths, the
graduation ball, the first love, and the like, or accept their gifts.
Whereas now the teachers undergo a stress when they learn that the
students leaving school or the first-grade schoolchildren have a
small gift for them, such as a golden ring or a dinner.

Let alone the high-ranking and not so high-ranking public officials,
who get their salary from the state budget. Busy with a state
business of a particular importance, they have no time to go to the
government and officially reject the salary. The point is that the
salary is real evidence for the prosecutor. You can judge yourselves.
When someone sees how an official lives, he is amazed how he can live
such a luxurious life on his small salary. They start doubting, and
it is possible that they will be charged one day, like Member of
Parliament Hakob Hakobyan.

But when the official does not get a salary, besides preventing
doubts he also has an `extenuating condition.’ For instance, if a
public official does not get a salary but works, it means he is doing
a favor for the state and the public by serving for free. And the
public and the state will by all means appreciate him. The same
example: if Hakob Hakobyan had rejected the salary for all these
years, they would have certainly pardoned all the tax breaches he is
accused of.

However, strangely enough nobody learns from Hakobyan’s case and
rejects the salary he gets from the state budget. On the other hand,
they are doing the right thing. After all, their only tie with the
law is their salary, and if they reject it as well, even the best
lawyer will be unable to save them. Therefore, the budget is
necessary, and the members of parliament will vote for the budget,
even if it is not November 27.

HAKOB BADALYAN

Armenpress

TASSOS PAPADOPOULOS SAYS CYPRUS TO SUPPORT ARMENIA IN
IMPLEMENTATION OF EU’S NEW NEIGHBORHOOD PROGRAM

NICOSIA, NOVEMBER 23, ARMENPRESS: A wide range of
issues was discussed today during the face-to-face
meeting of the Armenian and Cyprian presidents Robert
Kocharian and Tassos Papadopoulos and at the extended
meeting which followed after it.
During the negotiations an agreement on fighting
against organized and other crime manifestations has
been signed and the task groups have been assigned to
develop concrete proposals and programs for boosting
the cooperation.
At the press conference which followed after the
negotiations the presidents of the two countries
particularly pointed out the warm and productive
atmosphere maintained during the whole process of
negotiations. `We had a very productive discussion and
tried to give practical solutions and suggestions,’
Kocharian said. The President of Cyprus Tassos
Papadopoulos noted that both during personal and
official meetings the Cyprian side assured the
Armenian president that it is ready to boost bilateral
friendly relations between the two countries and
expand the cooperation.
`Cyprus must speak in favor of Armenia in all the
international and political issues,’ the Cyprian
president stated. In the implementation of agreements,
the president underscored the role of the Armenian
community, which, according to Papadopoulos, is a
high-level community and is leading in all the
spheres. `The relations between our peoples and
countries are very warm and there exists an effective
dialogue which we tired to expand today particularly
in the economic sphere,’ the Armenian president noted.
According to Kocharian, Armenia and Cyprus have
always defended each other in different international
establishments. He said today Armenia has great
expectations in respect of acquiring experience of
Cyprus in the implementation of reforms within the
frameworks of the EU’s New Neighborhood Policy. The
Cyprian side has expressed readiness to support and
cooperate with Armenia in this field. `From the very
first moment Cyprus was for the inclusion of Armenia
in the EU’s New Neighborhood program, which supposes a
great number of reforms. We are ready to support in
their practical implementation,’ the Cyprian president
said.
The reporters present at the conference were
interested what approaches the sides have over the
process of Turkey’s membership to EU. `Turkey has
assumed these commitments on its own wish. All the
countries agree that Turkey must implement its
commitments but at the same time they do not want
negotiations be suspended. Punitive measures must be
undertaken to show Turkey that it must be
conscientious. At present it is being discussed what
punitive measures must be undertaken,’ president of
Cyprus said. According to Robert Kocharian, Armenia is
interested in the issue as it is connected with the
readiness and wish of Turkey to regulate its relations
with the neighboring countries, including Armenia. `It
is important whether the process of membership of
Turkey will be conducted fully or not. This will
directly influence on Armenian-Turkish relations,’
Armenian president said.
On response to the question about the position of
the Armenian president over Turkish-Cyprian relations,
Kocharian said that Armenia has many times stated in
the international organizations its position. `We
would like to see the Cyprus issue regulated in the
way the Cyprian people and government is picturing
it,’ the Armenian president said. Kocharian said that
he has invited his Cyprian counterpart to visit
Armenia next year.
Armenian president also met today with the Chairman
of the Cyprian House of Representatives Demetris
Khristofias. The latter said that they have reached
agreement over consolidation of political partnership,
expansion of legislative cooperation which will bring
to the development of cooperation in economic,
cultural, tourism and other spheres. `Good ties exist
between the parliaments of the two countries but it is
necessary to carry out more effective work for
developing them more,’ Demetris Khristofias said at
the press conference that followed the meeting.
Referring to the recognition of the Armenian
Genocide by Turkey on its way to the EU, the president
of Armenia said, `The process of coming into terms
with the own history is a way which people must pass
on their own. We hope the process of membership to EU
will bring to the state when the discussions over this
issue in Turkey will be more open and the
intellectuals and society will have an opportunity to
express themselves freely,’ Kocharian said.
Within the framework of the visit the members of
the delegation also had separate meetings with their
Cyprian partners. Particularly Armenian deputy
foreign, trade and economic development and culture
and youth affairs ministers met with their
counterparts and discussed with them prospects for the
development of cooperation.
Gagik Gyurjian, deputy culture and youth affairs
minister, noted that during the meeting an agreement
has been reached over the all-encompassing program on
cooperation in the cultural sphere for 2006-2008.

NUMBER OF TOURISTS VISITING ARMENIA TO INCREASE BY 20% AMOUNTING TO 380,000 BY END, 2006
By Ara Martirosian

AZG Armenian Daily
23/11/2006

The number of tourists, visiting Armenia per year, will increase by
18-20% and amount to 370,000-380,000 by the end, 2006, as compared
with the data of the same period in 2005, Ara Petrosian, RA deputy
minister of trade and economic development, said at a press conference.

He said that 272,000 tourists have visited the country for Jan-Sep,
2006, against 230,000 for the same period in 2005. Petrosian
noted the inflow of tourists within the next 4-5 years will grow by
20-25%. Meanwhile, according to Petrosian forecasts, 500,000 tourists
will visit Armenia in already 2-3 years. He said that activation
of the inner tourism for the last years is conditioned by several
factors, in particular, the development of tourism infrastructures,
increase of the level of services, rendered to the tourists. From
this viewpoint, Petrosian noted that if there were 2 hotels with
international standards in the country 7-8 years ago, this indicator
grew to 20, at present.

Besdies, he informed that 5 new hotel objects have opened in
Armenia within this year, in particular, in Yerevan, as well as in
such towns as Goris, Tsakhkadzor and Sevan. Moreover, Information
Center for Tourism functions in Dilijan since November 14 within
the framework of the USAID program "Competitive Armenian Private
Sector". A. Petrosian underlined that correct presentation of the
country’s tourist potential in the international market by means of
participation in tourist exhibitions, advertising also contributes
to the development of Armenia’s home tourism. He emphasized that
the American CNN is broadcasting the country’s tourism by means of
2 advertising spots since September 2006.

SENIOR REPUBLICAN MEMBER ‘DISTRIBUTES’ NEXT PARLIAMENT SEATS

Armenpress
Nov 22 2006

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 22, ARMENPRESS: A senior member of the governing
Republican Party predicted today that his own party and the Prosperous
Armenia of a millionaire businessman Gagik Tsarukian will win seats
in the next parliament.

Galust Sahakian, head of the Republican Party’s parliamentary faction,
also predicted that two opposition parties-the National Unity of
Artashes Geghamian and the People’s Party of Armenia of Stepan
Demirchian will win seats in the legislator.

Sahakian said, ‘irrespective of everything, the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation (ARF) will also be represented in the National Assembly,
as its political ‘visitor card’ is embracing."

"As regards the Armenian National Movement (the party of ex-president
Levon Ter-Petrosian), I think it is represented in this current
parliament. Let us wait and see whether they will assume a constructive
approach or not," Sahakian said giving no chances to the Orinats
Yerkir party of former parliament chairman Arthur Baghdasarian,
saying this party was in the process of changing its image.

Sahakian said all political forces spoke in favor fair and transparent
elections.. He further said that on the eve of the polls all forces
contesting parliamentary seats should announce publicly what sort
of resources they possess and in which polling stations they will be
able to secure that polls be held in just atmosphere.

LEADER OF TURKISH "NATIONAL MOVEMENT" PARTY ACCUSED TURKISH AUTHORITIES OF SEARCH OF DIALOGUE WITH ARMENIA

ArmInfo News Agency, Armenia
Nov 21 2006

The leader of the Turkish "National Movement" party (NMP), Devlet
Bakhchaly, has accused the Turkish authorities of the search of
dialogue with Armenia. As the Azeri APA Agency informs, he told about
it at the 8th congress of NMP, held on November 19.

According to the source, D. Bakhchaly had come out with severe
accusations of the ruling party of Justice and Development (AKP). The
Chairman of NMP had criticized the policy of the Prime Minister
of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, aimed at the terrorism-fight and
touched upon the foreign political issues. "Occupation of the part
of Azerbaijan’s territory by Armenia and a drama of 1 million of
forced migrants has nothing common with the policy of AKP. Instead
of it, the Government is looking for the ways of dialogue with the
Armenians. Armenia, being an occupant and falsifier of history, tries
to dictate its conditions to Turkey and achieve the opening of borders
under the West ‘s support, as well as to make Turkey to remove the
embargo and recognize the Armenian Genocide", Bakhchaly said.

ISSUE OF TERRITORIES IN THE PERIOD OF POLITICAL TRADE
Hakob Hakobyan

Lragir, Armenia
Nov 22 2006

The myth of the year 2006 died before it was born. The OSCE Minsk
Group co-chairs are already preparing the publics for the year 2007.

It is realistic. Moreover, if they started to prepare the publics
for the year 2017, they could be referred to as not only realistic
but prophets. But there is something that does not allow referring to
them by this title. When they assured that 2006 is a favorable year,
they always added that if the issue were not settled in the year of
the open window, it would be very painful, and we would have no hope
to settle the issue in the next two years because it was a period of
elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan. In this situation, it is amazing
when suddenly the co-chairs start moving the hope of 2006 to the year
2007. In addition, the U.S. co-chair Matthew Bryza was the first to
do this, who stated that the pre-election reality in Armenia does not
mean that the settlement of the conflict in the pre-election period in
Armenia is impossible. And Bryza was right. The pre-election period
is the best period to settle the conflict, for in this period the
government is more vulnerable. In other words, it is ready to reach
any agreement to prevent a flower revolution. On the other hand, there
is an opinion that by signing an agreement the Armenian government
writes its own verdict. In other words, the political forces will
come together and remove the government from power.

Perhaps this is what logic says. But let us see how many of the
political forces of Armenia differ in their approaches to the
settlement. One example is enough. Even Samvel Babayan, who claims
to the laurels of the victory in the Karabakh war, is stating that
a compromise is inevitable. The liberal wing descending from the
former government are stating this, the opposition is stating this
without an exception. Presently Robert Kocharyan is accused of not
only willingness to return the territories but also for having come to
power vowing not to return the territories. In other words, they are
not indignant that he returns the territories but that he "cheated".

In other words, the political sphere has nearly such an approach,
"We might return it as well, why you should?"

Strange though it may seem, we have to confess that there is no
influential political force in the country which won, which would
stand up for not returning the territories. Moreover, not only with
the groundless romantism of "not a patch of land" but logically,
explaining that returning the territories attacks the interests of
the Armenian state which cannot develop on its own security which
is taken away from the one who returns, and returning, according to
Aghasi Aivazyan, is endless. And this prejudice of returning which
is viewed by the Armenian political thought as a guarantee of their
own success can be used best in the pre-election period, because
it is not but a period of political trade. The problem is with whom
the political forces are likely to deal, Robert Kocharyan and Serge
Sargsyan who are ready to return the territories or the West which is
ready to take these territories. It is natural that Robert Kocharyan
and Serge Sargsyan can give less than the West – only a parliamentary
mandate. But what else do our political forces need to be happy? It
is good that they are satisfied with the little they have, otherwise
they would trade with the West on every matter. When they "bargain"
over the territories with the government, there is danger that we will
get away with little losses. In other words, we will return as much
as Kocharyan and Sargsyan want, in other words, in return for several
seats in the parliament the political forces will agree to justify
the return of territories by the prospect of economic development of
Armenia, and mitigate the possible dissatisfaction of the society.

If they wanted more, naturally, a wild competition would occur in the
political sphere of Armenia where the opposition, the pro-government
forces and the government would try to prove to the West that they
will return more if they come to power or stay in power. After all, it
makes no difference for the West whether the deal is made directly or
with Kocharyan as a middleman. The process is important, which leads to
the same goal, in fact. In addition, they would not like the Armenians
to give away whatever they have. And maybe the hopes connected with
2007 are that Armenia will, nevertheless, agree to keep some territory.

"DAVID HAROUTYUNYAN IS INTERESTED"

A1+
[05:45 pm] 13 November, 2006

The deputies found it difficult to enter the Parliament building
today. The citizens of Yerevan whose houses or residential areas
have been alienated for the sake of state needs blocked their way not
allowing them to enter the building. The RA draft Law on "Alienation
of property for state and public needs" was to be voted after the
second reading.

The participants of the protest action claim that the RA government
has ordered the deputies to adopt the draft. According to head of
the NGO "Victims of State Needs" Sedrak Baghdasaryan, the draft has
never proceeded from the interests of the people, and Minister of
Justice David Haroutyunyan keeps representing it to the NA as "he
is interested".

"Especially the 18th article of the Law which represents the
transitional provisions contradicts the interests of the people. And
instead of protecting the people David Haroutyunyan does the opposite",
said Sedrak Baghdasaryan.

He also reminded that during the October 11 hearings the 9-page
pack of offers represented by a number of NGOs was ignored. "When we
raised that question, they said they did not have time to read it",
Sedrak Baghdasaryan complained.

He also reminded that during the October 11 hearings the 9-page
pack of offers represented by a number of NGOs was ignored. "When we
raised that question, they said they did not have time to read it",
Sedrak Baghdasaryan complained and drew a conclusion, "We live in a
totalitarian country where laws are made for several criminals only".

KOCHARIAN-PUTIN TALKS FOLLOWED BY RUSSIAN ACQUISITION OF ARMENIAN TELECOM LEADER
By Emil Danielyan

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Nov 15 2006

A leading Russian mobile phone operator is poised to buy Armenia’s
national telecommunications company, ArmenTel, further boosting
Moscow’s economic presence in the loyal South Caucasus state. The
Armenian government will almost certainly give its mandatory consent
to the nearly $490 million takeover, having just ceded more energy
assets to Russia’s Gazprom natural gas monopoly (see EDM, November
3). Its domestic critics have denounced these developments as another
blow to the country’s national security.

Vimpel-Communications (VimpelCom) announced on November 3 that
it had won an international tender for a commanding 90% share in
ArmenTel that was called by the latter’s parent company, the Hellenic
Telecommunications Organization (OTE), last April. In a press release,
the Russian firm said it will pay the Greek telecom giant almost
$437 million and assume its Armenian subsidiary’s debts totaling $51
million. Although OTE has yet to officially confirm this, nobody has
questioned the credibility of the information.

The deal is the latest in a recent series of VimpelCom acquisitions
of cellular operators across the former Soviet Union, including
neighboring Georgia. Its official endorsement by the Armenian
government, which owns the remaining 10% of ArmenTel, now seems a
mere formality. In fact, Yerevan has reportedly played a decisive
role in the outcome of the bidding. Russian and Armenian press
reports said that VimpelCom did not submit the highest bid, with
the Moscow daily Kommersant claiming last week that another bidder,
the Dubai-based consortium Etisalat, offered to pay $600 million for
ArmenTel. According to Yerevan’s Haykakan Zhamanak daily, Armenian
Transport and Communications Minister Andranik Manukian warned the
Greeks that the government would block the sale unless they give the
tender to VimpelCom or Sistema, another Russian telecom firm that
has shown interest in ArmenTel.

Assuming that this was the case, OTE had no option but to accept the
price tag put forward by the Russians. The company bought the Armenian
phone network for about $200 million in early 1998 and seems to have
more than recouped the price since then. ArmenTel has apparently
been OTE’s most profitable division, largely owing to its extremely
controversial legal monopoly on all forms of telecommunication, which
was partly abolished two years ago. It reported $58 million in earnings
last year, compared to a net loss of $275 million posted by the entire
Greek group. Explaining the surprise decision to put ArmenTel up for
sale in April, its top executives said they have decided to focus
on the company’s core holdings in Greece as well as subsidiaries in
nearby Bulgaria, Serbia, and Romania. Michalis Tsamas, OTE’s managing
director, also cited a "rather large interest from Russian companies
and funds."

The VimpelCom statement came just days after Armenian President
Robert Kocharian’s visit to Moscow, which was dominated by economic
issues. Receiving Kocharian in the Kremlin on October 30, Russian
President Vladimir Putin described as "shameful" and "odd" the fact
that Russia is only Armenia’s third-largest foreign investor. Some
analysts construed the televised remark as a demand for a greater
Russian presence in the Armenian economy. Kocharian responded
by confirming that Gazprom will raise from 45% to 58% its share
in the Russian-Armenian ARG joint venture that runs Armenia’s gas
distribution network. ARG is also widely expected to gain ownership of
an under-construction gas pipeline from Iran. All this appears to be
part of a controversial April agreement that enables Armenia to receive
Russian gas at a knockdown price until January 2009 in return for
handing over more of its energy assets to Gazprom (see EDM, April 6).

Both the April deal and the imminent sale of ArmenTel have prompted
serious concern from opposition politicians and media commentators.

They believe that Armenia’s economic dependence on its former-Soviet
master is turning into a dangerous stranglehold. But the influential
Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian, who is closely involved in
Russian-Armenian economic dealings, brushed aside such concerns as
he spoke with journalists on November 6. "Give me a single example of
Russian capital present in Armenia exerting political pressure on us,"
Sarkisian said. "He knows very well that economic levers are the best
means of political blackmail," Vahagn Khachatrian, a former Yerevan
mayor opposed to the Armenian government, countered in an interview
with the Aravot daily. The Kremlin, he said, will now be better placed
to hold Yerevan in check.

Proponents of the ArmenTel deal will insist, however, that VimpelCom,
the first Russian firm to list its shares on the New York Stock
Exchange in November 1996, is privately owned and unlikely to be
used by the Kremlin as a political tool. They might also argue that,
with almost 52 million mobile phone subscribers in Russia and other
parts of the former USSR, VimpelCom has the resources to make more
capital investments in the Armenian land-line phone network.

For many local observers, the key question is not so much who will
own ArmenTel as whether the operator will be forced to abandon
its exclusive right to provide Armenia’s Internet connection with
the outside world. The legal monopoly is widely blamed for the poor
quality and relatively high cost of that service. It is also seen as
a serious obstacle to the development of information technology in the
country. The Armenian government has reportedly asked VimpelCom to take
its minority stake in ArmenTel in return for giving up the monopoly.

(Haykakan Zhamanak, November 11, November 7; Aravot, November 8;
Kommersant, November 7; Statement by VimpelCom, November 3; Russian
First Channel, October 30)

from the November 14, 2006 edition –

html < .html>

New push to resolve after-effects of USSR’s forgotten war

The Minsk Group meets in Brussels Tuesday in a fresh attempt to break
the deadlock over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region

By Fred Weir | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

SABIRABAD, AZERBAIJAN

Since being driven from her family’s comfortable farmhouse in eastern
Azerbaijan by Armenian forces 14 years ago, Salbeh Suleimanova has
raised four children in a canvas-roofed mud hut , making do with
state assistance worth about $40 per month in this squalid refugee
camp of 10,000 people.

But she has never stopped yearning for her home, now occupied by
Armenians, 100 miles down the road.

"Not a day goes by that we don’t dream of liberation, going back to
our own place," she says. "I don’t feel any hatred, but I’m always
angry. No one should have to live like this."

Ms. Suleimanova is among the nearly 1 million Azeris and 400,000
Armenians uprooted from their homes in the Soviet Union’s longest,
bloodiest, and – in the West – most widely forgotten war.

As the USSR was crumbling in 1998, brutal ethnic cleansing erupted
between this region’s Muslim Azeris and Christian Armenians, and the
subsequent war left 30,000 dead.

The trigger: Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave claimed by Azerbaijan but
populated mainly by Armenians, which had enjoyed autonomous status
under the USSR.

The Minsk Group – co-chaired by Russia, France, and the US – meets
Tuesday in a fresh attempt to break the deadlock over Nagorno-Karabakh,
after a dozen years of fruitless international diplomatic efforts.

But with a region-wide military buildup in full swing, and impatience
with the flagging peace talks mounting, some experts fear renewed
warfare is growing more possible.

"The negotiating process is in a serious crisis," says Sergei
Markedonov, a regional expert with the independent Institute of
Political and Military Analysis in Moscow. "There is absolutely no
confidence between any of the parties to this war."

Mutual recrimination persists

Tuesday’s meeting brings the Azeri and Armenian foreign ministers
together in Brussels, but there is a new complication: Nagorno-Karabakh
last month adopted a local constitution that declares the tiny statelet
a "sovereign, democratic and independent" nation.

Similar to Monday’s independence referendum in Georgia’s breakaway
South Ossetia region, which passed with 99 percent support, the move
is largely symbolic – but fiercely contested.

"The territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is not a subject for
negotiation," says Azeribaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, in a meeting
with visiting journalists.

"The Armenian position is based on dreams and desires," he says. "They
think their temporary military advantage gives them the right to think
that Nagorno-Karabakh can be separated from Azerbaijan and joined to
Armenia. This will not happen."

Mr. Aliyev says he’s willing to grant the region’s Armenians "autonomy"
under Azerbaijani rule, but only if all Azeri refugees are allowed
to return to their former homes.

Azeri officials refuse to even discuss, however, any possible return
for the nearly half-million ethnic Armenians who were expelled from
the capital, Baku, and other Azeri cities amid the USSR collapse.

Petro-sweepstakes winner

Azerbaijan, once one of the poorest republics of the former Soviet
Union, has won the petro-sweepstakes over the past three years.

As major Caspian oil and gasfields have come on-stream, the little
Caucasus country’s economy is set to grow by a third this year alone,
while the state budget has quadrupled since 2004.

British Petroleum’s Baku-Ceyhan pipeline opened this year, and will
be pumping 1 million barrels of Caspian crude daily to Western markets
by 2009.

Oil money could fuel military

With its burgeoning wealth and growing role in global energy security,
Azerbaijan is rising dramatically in strategic importance. The US
has courted Aliyev as an ally in the global war on terror, and the
Islamic world’s only leader of a predominately Shiite nation who
champions secular government and pro-Western policies.

"Azerbaijani oil is making a difference already," in world petroleum
markets, says Peter Sinott, an expert at Brooklyn College, in New
York. "Baku’s oil revenues will grow substantially for the next five
years, but what will they do with it?"

One thing Aliyev intends to do is build a world class war machine
. Azerbaijan’s military expenditures have exploded, from $135
million in 2003 to a projected $1 billion next year. That’s part of
a Caucasus-wide trend, which will see Armenian armed forces’ spending
grow by 22 percent, to $212 million in 2007. Georgia’s defense budget
also leapt from $146 million in 2005 to $218 million this year,
according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

"We are in a situation of war, and we must be strong," says Aliyev.

But he quickly adds his belief that time is on Azerbaijan’s side,
as oil revenues transform his country into a modern, diversified
economy. "We are negotiating, but we understand that if you are strong,
your negotiating position becomes stronger."

But that long-term view may not play well in Azerbaijan’s hinterland,
where refugees from the Karabakh war make up more than 10 percent of
the population.

Temporary solution

In Bilesuvar, an Azeri town near the Iranian border, Yagoub Aleskerov
is one of thousands of refugees who’ve recently been resettled from
a Sabirabad-type camp by the Azeri government.

He’s been given a comfortable two-room matchbox house with a small
plot of land to grow vegetables. Despite the radical improvement in
his conditions, however, Mr. Aleskerov remains bitter.

"This is just temporary," he says. "The president has promised us
that we will return to our homes, and that’s the only thing we’re
waiting for."

Makhmoud Goulayev, the district head in Bilesuvar, suggests
Mr. Aleskerov is not alone in his discontent.

"People here are very angry, and they want action against the
Armenians," says Makhmoud Goulayev, district head in Bilesuvar.

"The aggressors must be punished. If the peaceful way doesn’t work
to return our lands, then we shall have to find other methods."

<; | Copyright © 2006
The Christian Science Monitor. All rights reserved.

–Boundary_(ID_GYmnTWE+AmN0lHPrjsqDqw)- –

Aravot, Armenia
Nov 9 2006

NEW REPRESENTATIVES OF DIASPORA

The major part of Armenians who have left the country during last 15
years have a specific; they used to produce the Armenian life as a
complete nightmare to justify their refusal to return. They may
assure themselves that there is no electricity in Armenia or we stand
in turn for bread till today, such fantasies are some sort of cure
for them.
Our reality is far to be a heaven. The major part of our population
are poor, the Armenian authorities systematically break the rights of
citizens, they rig the elections, limit the freedom of the press, use
their authority for personal. Material problems etc. All these are a
reality and all normal newspapers right about it. But first of all,
we, the citizens of Armenia, have right to raise those problems. The
second, "new representatives of Diaspora" exaggerate our bad
conditions. The announcements of "exiled writers" weren’t published
in the official press. In other words, you can’t pronounce the word
"regime" freely being under pressure of regime.
There is another unpleasant item in the announcement of "Exiled
intellectuals"; the application addressed to democratic states where
the call to assist in holding revolution in Armenia. It is
meaningless to expect assistance from those countries, even if they
are ready to hold a revolution. But whatever they form won’t be a
better one.
Besides, I’m inclined to think that the RA current authorities are
admissible in general; it seems the outside powers have no problem
with the current authorities.
Certainly, it doesn’t mean that Europe and U.S. aren’t for democratic
values. If we manage to build a democratic state, they will respect
us. If we don’t manage, they won’t respect how much we complain or
swear for confidence.

Aram Abrahamian