Author: Kanayan Tamar

ARMENIA MAY TRY TO AGAIN QUALIFY FOR MILLENNIUM CHALLENGES CORPORATION’S AID

ARKA
Sep 5, 2011

YEREVAN, September 5. / ARKA /. The U.S.-government-run Millennium
Challenges Corporation (MCC) is ending its projects in Armenia, Ara
Hovsepian, head of Millennium Challenges Armenia, said today, adding
that Armenia may try to qualify again for the second time for U.S.

government aid, but to do so it must comply with several criteria.

On March 27, 2006 the Millennium Challenge Corporation signed a
five-year, $235.65 million Compact with the Government of Armenia. The
Compact was focused on one goal: reduction of rural poverty through a
sustainable increase in the economic performance of the agricultural
sector.

Armenia planned to achieve this goal through a five-year program of
strategic investments in rural roads, irrigation infrastructure and
technical and financial assistance to improve the supply of water
and to support farmers and agribusinesses. The Program was to have a
direct impact on approximately 750,000 people, or 75% of the rural
population, and was expected to reduce the rural poverty rate and
boost annual incomes.

On September 29, 2006 the Compact officially entered into force.

Later, in June 2009, the MCC board made a decision to suspend of the
MCA-Armenia components – Rural road rehabilitation Project, with a
$67 million budget to rehabilitate up to 350 kilometers of rural roads.

“A similar program is necessary to solve the grater part of problems in
irrigation area, but for that Armenia should comply with requirements
of MCC, both political and social,” Hovsepian said at a press
conference on Monday .

He said Millennium Challenges Armenia ends officially all its
projects in Armenia on September 29. According to him, as a result
of the program six main sections of water mains were rehabilitated,
17 key pump stations were upgraded and refurbished, 5 new gravity-fed
irrigation systems were set up and about 100 farm canals and parts
of the drainage systems in the Ararat Valley were restored.

The latest calculations reveal that the number of Irrigation
Infrastructure and Water-To-Market activity beneficiaries is more
than 427.000, which means that these people in 350 communities would
directly or indirectly benefit from the program.

Hovsepian said the money spent helped improve and boost agriculture
in the country, but “this is not enough and there are still many
unresolved issues that need funding.”.

ARMENIAN PRODUCER OF METALLIC SHAPES SET TO DOUBLE PRODUCTION IN 2011

ARKA
Sep 5, 2011

YEREVAN, September 5. / ARKA /. Armenian economy minister Tigran
Davtian visited today Murad Sar company that produces metallic shapes
(profiles). The plant plans to double the output this year to 2,000
tons, company director Vilik Hakhverdyan said to journalists.

He said it has already produced one thousand tons of products this
year, exactly as much as it had produced last year. He said the
company has already exported 200 tons of products to Georgia and
began exports to Iran.

In January-August 2011 it produced 802 million drams worth products,
selling outside the country 152 million drams worth products. The
director said raw materials are imported mainly from the U.S.,
Germany and Italy.

Minister Davtian said the activities of this company show that
Armenian companies are able to produce products that can not only
replace imports, but offer also competitive prices.

“What we need to do is to make these products recognizable at the
market, show that local products can compete with imported goods,”
the minister said, adding that local companies create new jobs,
replace imports and export their products. According to him, the
company uses modern equipment and employs highly trained specialists.

Murad Sap was founded in 2004, and specializes in manufacturing of
metal-plastic shapes, as well as in windows and doors. In 2009 the
company purchased four Austrian production lines for the production of
doors and windows with a total capacity of 400 tons per month. Murad
Sap has 37 workers on its payroll paying them an average salary of
187 thousand drams. The owner of the company is an Istanbul (Turkey)
Armenian Murad Saryan. ($ 1 -369.12 AMD).

ARMENIA-TURKEY RELATIONSHIP IMPROVEMENT CAN RESUME IF KARABAKH’S STATUS CONCRETIZED

ARKA
Sep 5, 2011

YEREVAN, September 5. /ARKA/. The process of improvement of relations
between Armenia and Turkey can resume if Nagorno-Karabakh Republic’s
status is concretized, Gagik Harutyunyan, political analyst and
director of Noravank scientific and educational center, said Friday
at a news conference.

“I think the relations can come out from the current frozen situation
and to get a new impetus only if a dramatic progress is reached in
Karabakh conflict settlement process,” he said.

The political analyst is convinced that nothing but this progress
can bring out things from the deadlock.

He also said that Turkey is trying to downgrade the importance of
Armenian issue, while actually it takes this issue seriously – as
seriously as Kurdish issue.

Harutyunyan stressed that Armenia has taken adequate steps in
Armenian-Turkish process and should remain stuck to the restrained
stance taken on the matter.

He said that Turkey has already demonstrated its attitude toward
Armenia by dismantling the Armenian-Turkish friendship monument and
making rough statements.

There are no diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey. The
border between the two countries was closed in 1993 at Ankara’s
initiative.

Relations between Armenia and Turkey remain tense because of
Ankara’s biased stance on Karabakh problem and its painful reaction
to Armenia’s efforts to obtain worldwide recognition of the fact of
Armenian Genocide.

Thaw in Armenian-Turkish relations began in 2008 at Armenian President
Serzh Sargsyan’s initiative.

On October 10, Armenian and Turkish foreign ministers Edward
Nalbandyan and Ahmet Davutoglu signed the protocols on establishment of
diplomatic ties between the two countries and development of bilateral
relations. The protocols had to be ratified by the two countries’
parliaments, but on April 22, 2010, the Armenian president signed a
decree ceasing the process of ratification. He said Turkey was not
ready to continue the process.

It became known about ten days ago that the protocols had been
automatically removed from the Turkish parliament’s agenda, in
accordance with its regulations, since they had remained unconsidered
within one convocation. It is unclear whether Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to send these protocols to the parliament
again or not.

BIGGEST INFLOW OF TOURISTS FROM RUSSIA -16,2% AND USA 14,6% TO ARMENIA IN FIRST HALF-YEAR

arminfo
Monday, September 5, 14:48

The biggest inflow of tourists from Russia -16,2% and the USA – 14,6%
to Armenia happened in Jan-June 2011. According to Armenian National
Statistics Service, the number of tourists which visited Armenia in
the first half-year was 266155, which is by 15,6% more versus the
same period of 2010.

The inflow of tourists from Russia and the USA grew by 62,4% and
95,3% versus the same period of 2010. The share of tourists from
the CIS countries was 19,5% for Jan-June 2011 (growth by 70,5%
versus Jan-june 2010), from the countries of European Union – 38,1%
(growth by 2,3 times).

France was the first among the European countries by the number of
tourists which visited Armenia in the first half of 2011 – 8,9% out
of the total number of tourists to Armenia (growth by 63,2%). Then
comes Germany – 6,4% (growth by 96,1%) and the Great Britain with a
share 5,9% (growth by 3,5 times versus the first half of 2010).

The number of tourists from Canada to Armenia grew by 87,3% in the
first half of 2011 versus the first half of 2010, from Iran – by 76,9%,
from Georgia – by 44,2%. The number of tourists from Turkey to Armenia
reduced by 64,5% over the reported period.

The tourists which arrived in Armenia in Jan-June 2011 lived in 51
hotels, whereas at the same period of 2010 they lived in 42 hotels.

The total of 52455 tourists used hotel services (growth by 83,9%
versus the same period of 2010), the rest 213700 tourists stayed at
houses their relatives or rented a house (growth by 16%).

At the same time, only 4058 out of 274621 tourists from Armenia in
Jan-June 2011 used services of the tourist companies (decrease by 5,1%
versus the same period of 2010). The rest 270563 tourists organized
their trip independently.

NEWBORN BORN COMATOSE DUE TO ALLEGED NEGLIGENCE BY DOCTOR DIES

epress.am
09.05.2011 12:29

The child born Aug. 14 in the town of Vayk in southern Armenia then
moved to a Yerevan hospital and who was in a coma since its birth
has died, reports youth civil initiative “We won’t be silent.”

As reported previously, the group disseminated a video in which
relatives of 20-year-old, first-time mom Armine Torosyan describe
what they call carelessness and negligence on the part of head of
the maternity ward in Vayk, Metaxya Hovhannisyan.

Later, head of the RA Ministry of Healthcare’s public relations
department Shushan Hunanyan told Epress.am that a group from the
ministry had gone to the hospital to assess the child’s condition.

Furthermore, Epress.am learned that Vayots Dzor marz (province) police
were gathering material for an investigation to look into the claims
of negligence.

Torosyan’s relatives say the mother-to-be felt contractions on Aug. 14
so they took her to the Vayk hospital, only to be told to delay the
birth as Hovhannisyan, the head of the maternity ward, was tending
to household errands (beating wool for blankets and the like) and
would call on the family in the evening.

“Our bride [a common term to refer to a daughter-in-law or
sister-in-law] had a normal pregnancy – she didn’t have any problems.

It’s because of Metaxya that our child has been in a coma for 15 days.

The doctors say he had a accumulation of blood in.. his brain; they
say he can’t be saved. It’s just that the child’s heart is healthy;
he’s still alive; we don’t know what will happen. During the labor,
Metaxya told us go get string, it costs 4,000 drams that string –
but what was that string supposed to do if there are no stitches
on our bride? She pocketed that string. Then she said go bring oil
for an enema, she used one drop. She put that too in her purse,”
said Tsovinar Khachatryan, the sister of Torosyan’s mother-in-law,
seen in the video below.

PRESSE ARMENIENNE : REVUE DU 1ER SEPTEMBRE 2011

Collectif VAN

05-09-2011

Le Collectif VAN vous livre cette Revue de Presse parue sur le site
de l’Ambassade de France en Armenie le 1er septembre 2011.

Ambassade de France en Armenie

Revue de la presse armenienne du 1er septembre 2011

Affaires interieures

La presse du jour reproduit l’entretien de l’ex-President Robert
Kotcharian a la chaîne publique du HK, a l’occasion du 20ème
anniversaire de la proclamation de ” l’independance ” du HK.

L’ex-President dit ne pas partager l’avis selon lequel aujourd’hui le
HK ne prend pas part aux negociations : ” Certes, le HK ne participe
pas a l’etape presente du processus de negociations, a savoir aux
rencontres des Presidents d’Armenie et d’Azerbaïdjan, mais le cadre
de negociations est une notion plus large. Le HK negocie avec les
copresidents du Groupe de Minsk et constitue l’une des parties au
processus. Aux negociations entre les Presidents, les interets du HK
sont presentes par le President d’Armenie “. M. Kotcharian relève qu’en
son temps, il discutait très minutieusement de toutes les questions
avec son ” collègue ” du HK, Arcady Ghoukassian. ” Ceci dit, il faut
oeuvrer a ce que le HK soit partie prenante aux negociations “.

L’ex-president dit ne pas avoir de doute qu’un jour le HK prendra
part aux reunions des presidents. Concernant les perspectives de
règlement du conflit, Robert Kotcharian estime que dans l’histoire
contemporaine, les conflits similaires ont ete resolus au profit
de l’autodetermination des peuples. L’ex-President cite l’exemple
de l’Abkhazie, de l’Ossetie du sud, du Kosovo, du Timor Est, de
l’Erythree, du sud Soudan, tout en disant convaincu qu’un jour le
Darfour et la Palestine auront des Etats independants.

De ce fait, l’ex-president estime que ” le temps travaille a notre
profit “. ” Il n’y a aucun doute qu’un jour le HK sera un Etat
independant. Mais tout depend des modalites de negociations et des
solutions envisagees. L’independance n’est jamais offerte, elle est
conquise “, conclut-il.

L’ensemble de la presse relève qu’un officier et un soldat ont ete
arretes suite a la mort du soldat Aghassi Abrahamian, dans une unite du
HK, le 26 août dernier (cf. les revues du 30 et 31 août). Le Ministère
de la defense a refuse de reveler l’identite des detenus pour proteger
les familles. Il a ajoute que d’autres arrestations pourraient avoir
lieu dans les prochains jours. Le porte-parole du Ministère de la
defense, Davit Karapetian, a affirme a RFE/RL que les deux hommes sont
suspectes d’avoir cause la mort du soldat. L’affaire est etroitement
suivie par le Ministre de la Defense. RFE/RL relève que selon des
donnees non verifiees d’associations pour les droits de l’Homme,
20 soldats ont ete tues lors de leur service militaire cette annee
(suicides ou decedes accidentellement). Le Ministère n’a pas confirme
ces donnees, se bornant a indiquer que la première moitie de 2011 a
ete marquee par une baisse du nombre de soldats morts.

Hayots Achkhar, Hayastani Hanrapetoutioun, 168 Jam et Novoye Vremia
rendent compte de la visite de travail du President Sarkissian dans la
region de Tavouch où il a notamment pris part a l’inauguration de la
station de pompage ” Noyemberian-1 ” reconstruite par l’entreprise
francaise Farmex sur les fonds de ” Millenium Challenge “. La
station de pompage approvisionnera en eau d’irrigation 1900 hectares
appartenant a 2400 consommateurs de plusieurs communes de la region.

Alors que Haykakan Jamanak publie a la ” une ” la photo d’une luxueuse
villa en cours de construction du President de la Chambre d’audit,
Ichkhan Zakharian, Aravot et 168 Jam publient a la ” une ” la photo
d’un luxueux complexe hôtelier, appartenant au maire d’Erevan Karen
Karapetian… D’après Aravot, le maire d’Erevan, qui ne serait pas le
proprietaire officiel du bâtiment, le construirait en l’honneur de sa
fille… D’après 168 Jam, ce site pourrait devenir l’un des restaurants
les plus chers d’Erevan… Concernant la villa du President de la
Chambre d’audit, Haykakan Jamanak indique que si M. Zakharian n’a pas
ete joignable pour confirmer qu’il s’agit bien de sa propriete, son
epouse, fonctionnaire de la mairie d’Erevan, l’a fait, sans preciser
quels moyens financiers avaient permis son acquisition. Le quotidien
s’interroge en effet sur les revenus de M. Zakharian, ” qui de temps en
temps se fait l’avocat de la lutte contre la corruption dans le pays “.

Aravot et 168 Jam rendent compte de la conference de presse
du vice-President du parti Republicain, Galoust Sahakian, qui a
minimise les possibilites du Congrès national armenien d’avoir une
representation solide dans le futur parlement. Si le CNA poursuit son
actuelle strategie (boycott du dialogue avec la coalition) et presente
une liste electorale proportionnelle constituee d’ex ” prisonniers
politiques “, le maximum de sièges qu’il puisse obtenir, selon M.

Sahakian, est de 8 a 10.

Selon Haykakan Jamanak, lors du Conseil des Ministres, aujourd’hui,
le Gouvernement devra approuver un accord signe avec les Emirats
Arabes Unis sur l’emigration de la main d’oeuvre armenienne vers ce
pays. Le quotidien rappelle que de tels accords signes avec la Russie
et le Katar ont ete approuves par le Gouvernement armenien en octobre
dernier. Le quotidien conclut que le Gouvernement armenien mènerait ”
une politique programmee d’exportation de la main d’oeuvre qualifiee “.

Selon Azg et 168 Jam, citant le Service national des Statistiques,
par rapport a la meme periode de l’annee precedente, (janvier-août)
le taux de l’inflation s’elève a 8,8%.

HK

Dans un article intitule ” Le processus du Karabagh est en train
de se geler ” paru en ” une “, Azg constate un ralentissement des
negociations, suite au sommet de Kazan, qui durera jusqu’a la fin des
processus electoraux dans les trois pays copresidents du Groupe de
Minsk, comme en Armenie et en Azerbaïdjan. L’auteur considère nulles
les chances d’organiser un nouveau sommet des Presidents d’Armenie
et d’Azerbaïdjan en marge de l’AGNU.

Redaction : Merie Hakobian

Retour a la rubrique

Source/Lien : Ambassade de France en Armenie

AZERBAIDJAN: LA CEDH VA EXAMINER LE RECOURS D’EMIN MILLI ET D’ADNAN HAJIZADE

Collectif VAN

05-09-2011

Le Collectif VAN vous propose ce Communique de Presse publie sur le
site des Reporters Sans Frontières le 2 septembre 2011.

Reporters Sans Frontières

Azerbaïdjan

Le recours d’Emin Milli et d’Adnan Hajizade prochainement examine
par la Cour europeenne des droits de l’homme

Publie le vendredi 2 septembre 2011.

Le recours des blogueurs Emin Milli et Adnan Hajizade, depose auprès
de la Cour europeenne des droits de l’homme en janvier 2011, devrait
etre examine en septembre prochain. Debut 2011, les blogueurs Emin
Milli et Adnan Hajizade avaient depose plainte contre les autorites
azerbaïdjanaises auprès de l’instituion europeenne pour violation
des articles 3, 5, 6, 8, et 10 de la Convention europeenne de
sauvegarde des droits de l’homme et des libertes fondamentales. Les
deux blogueurs demandent une reconnaissance officielle de la violation
de leurs droits. S’ils ont beneficie d’une liberation conditionnelle
en novembre 2010, ils n’ont toujours pas ete officiellement innocentes.

Adnan Hajizade, video-blogueur et membre du mouvement apolitique “OL !

Youth Movement”, et Emin Milli, un des fondateurs du mouvement “The
Alumni Network”, avaient ete arretes le 8 juillet 2010, a Bakou, après
avoir porte plainte suite a leur agression par deux individus dans
un restaurant. lls ont ete accuses formellement deux jours plus tard
d'”hooliganisme” (en vertu de l’article 222.1-0- du code penal). Ils
etaient en realite persecutes pour avoir critique les autorites et
diffuse une video caricaturant les politiciens corrompus.

Lors de leur detention, Emin Milli a ete gravement blesse a la jambe
alors qu’Adnan Hajizade a eu le nez casse. Ils n’ont pas beneficie
des soins medicaux necessaires.

Les deux blogueurs denoncent la violation de l’article 3, qui interdit
la torture ainsi que les peines ou les traitements inhumains ou
degradants.

Adnan Hajizade et Emin Milli reprochent aux autorites de ne pas avoir
respecte l’article 5 qui definit le droit a la liberte et a la surete.

Un individu ne peut etre arrete que s’il est soupconne d’actes
criminels ou s’il est condamne par un tribunal. Le prisonnier doit etre
informe des raisons de son arrestation et des charges retenues contre
lui, et doit etre juge rapidement. Emin Milli et Adnan Hajizade ont
ete places en detention provisoire pendant deux mois, dans l’attente
de leur procès. La dernière audience a eu lieu plus de quatre mois
après leur arrestation. Dans un rapport du 31 juillet 2009 remis
au Conseil des droits de l’homme des Nations unies, le Comite des
droits de l’homme a condamne le gouvernement d’Azerbaïdjan pour son
recours systematique a l’infraction de “hooliganisme” pour museler
la liberte d’expression.

Les deux blogueurs denonce la violation de l’article 6 affirmant le
droit a un procès equitable. Ils n’ont eu qu’un accès tardif a leurs
avocats et les remarques de leurs representants n’ont pas ete prises
en consideration par le tribunal.

L’article 8, qui garantit le droit au respect de la vie privee et
familiale, a egalement ete bafoue. Lors de leur detention, les proches
des prisonniers n’ont pas pu leur rendre visite, et certains n’ont
pas pu temoigner lors du procès.

Enfin, les plaignants denoncent la violation de l’article 10,
qui dispose ” la liberte d’opinion et la liberte de recevoir ou de
communiquer des informations ou des idees sans qu’il puisse y avoir
ingerence d’autorites publiques et sans consideration de frontière “.

Adnan Hajizade et Emin Milli ont ete emprisonnes pour avoir critique
les autorites et diffuse une video satirique sur des politiciens
corrompus.

Le 8 juillet 2009, Adnan Hajizade et Emin Milli avaient deja depose
plainte devant la cour de Bakou pour violation de leurs droits. Leur
requete avait ete rejetee le 23 juillet 2009. La Cour de Bakou avait
egalement rejete, le 10 août 2009, la plainte des deux blogueurs,
pour non respect de la presomption d’innocence, contre le ministère
de l’Interieur, le bureau du procureur et la police de Bakou.

WikiLeaks a recemment publie un câble revenant sur l’arrestation des
deux blogueurs : voir l’article de Reporters sans frontières.

Retour a la rubrique

Source/Lien : Reporters Sans Frontières

LES TURCS NE SONT PAS OBLIGES DE S’INTEGRER AUX PAYS-BAS
[email protected]

armenews.com
lundi 5 septembre 2011

REVUE DE PRESSE

Trouw, 17 août 2011

“Selon le juge, les Turcs ne sont pas obliges de s’integrer” dans la
societe neerlandaise, rapporte Trouw a la une. Le mardi 16 août,
la Haute Cour Administrative d’Utrecht (l’instance judiciaire
administrative supreme aux Pays-Bas) a juge que “la politique
d’integration des Pays-Bas va a l’encontre d’une convention de
l’Union Europeenne”. Le journal explique que depuis 2007, la Loi sur
l’Integration oblige tous les immigres a suivre une formation (payante)
sur la langue et les coutumes neerlandaises et a passer par la suite
un examen. Certains Turcs ne reussissant pas cet examen devaient
payer une amende, ou bien on leur refusait le permis de sejour.

Or selon le juge, la Convention d’Ankara, etablie entre l’UE et la
Turquie en 1963, prescrit que les Turcs – au meme titre que les autres
ressortissants de l’UE – ne doivent pas etre “entraves” par ce genre
d’obligations s’ils veulent travailler ou habiter sur le territoire
de l’Union. Selon le journal, afin de contourner la decision de
la Haute cour, le ministre des Affaires etrangères a annonce qu’il
envisage d’imposer une “scolarite obligatoire independante de l’âge”,
qui obligerait tous les citoyens a avoir un niveau d’etude minimum
et a toutes les personnes domiciliees aux Pays-Bas a connaître le
neerlandais

Azerbaijani troops fired 400 bullets on Karabakh’s Independence Day

16:48 – 03.09.11

Azerbaijani armed forces violated the ceasefire accord along the Line
of Contact with Nagorno-Karabakh with a special intensity as it was
celebrating the 20th anniversary of independence on September 2.

According to a press release by the Defense Army of Nagorno-Karabakh,
Azerbaijani front troops used guns with various calibers as they
opened fire on the south-eastern, eastern, north-eastern and northern
directions of the Line of Contact with Karabakh.

On September 2 alone Azerbaijani forces fired more than 400 bullets.

The Karabakh’s Defense Army also said that the Azerbaijani troops
violated the ceasefire before the celebration of Karabakh’s
Independence Day.

Throughout the week the ceasefire was breached for a total of 350
times, and more than 2000 bullets were fired.

The Azerbaijani front troops ceased the fire after the Karabakhi side
retaliated.

Tert.am

Nagorno-Karabakh and Turkish-Armenian relations: Which should be solved first?
12:19 – 04.09.11

(By Armen Grigoryan, Caucasus Edition)

Before the June 2011 parliamentary elections in Turkey there was some
hope that Turkish-Armenian relations might improve in the short-term.
It seemed that after the elections Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan’s AKP party would not be under the threat of instantly losing
the support of voters due to opposition criticism, so its leadership
could ratify the protocols signed in 2009. Such a move, followed by
opening the Turkish-Armenian border, would have changed the regional
situation radically, opening the way for the resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and regional cooperation in the South
Caucasus.

The Turkish opposition and Azerbaijan’s government, which have been
opposing the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations, do not
believe that Armenia may become more willing to make concessions if
the Turkish-Armenian border is opened. Such thinking does not take
into account that Armenia’s excessive dependence on Russia is the main
issue requiring a solution.

The possibility of transportation across Turkish territory would have
reduced Armenia’s dependence on Russia. Furthermore, an opened border
would have relieved the economic hardship that Armenia’s population is
experiencing; thus, mutual trust would have been promoted. An improved
economic situation resulting in reduced internal political tension in
Armenia, together with an opportunity to maneuver more independently
from Russia, could have stimulated President Serzh Sargsyan and the
ruling coalition to be more flexible on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.

Such a scenario seems quite realistic, as strong internal opposition
questioning Sargsyan’s legitimacy already persuaded him to seek
international support and financial assistance. In 2008-2009, during
the period of rapprochement with Turkey, Sargsyan enjoyed the image of
a politician trying to overcome a decades-long enmity. Quite
significantly, although ratification of the protocols by Armenia’s
National Assembly was suspended in 2010, Sargsyan has not withdrawn
his signature despite the opposition urging him to do so.

At the same time, it would be very naive to consider Sargsyan a
politician with truly progressive views. His approach is rather
opportunistic; the readiness to make some concessions showed
previously was aimed mainly at getting international support. As there
has been no progress in relations with Turkey (instead, failed
negotiations in Kazan, new militaristic threats made by Azerbaijani
officials, and Erdogan’s harsh reaction to Sargsyan’s remark made at
an Armenian youth camp have only made the situation worse), while the
opposition continues demanding early elections, Sargsyan will be
motivated to use more hardcore nationalist rhetoric.

The 20th anniversary of Armenia’s independence in September seems a
convenient starting point for that. It should also be remembered that
sensitive issues such as Turkish-Armenian relations and the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are unlikely to progress in pre-election
periods. Campaigning for the May 2012 parliamentary elections will
begin in a few weeks, which will be followed by the presidential
campaign for the February 2013 elections. Political expediency will
also induce both government and opposition to use sentiments in
competition for a more “patriotic” image while moving towards 2015 –
the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide.

Unfortunately, in the near future the global economic crisis may
remain the strongest preventive factor in the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. It prompts the US and EU to keep Azerbaijan under pressure,
in order not to permit large-scale fighting that would be followed by
a sharp rise in the price of oil. But in order to break the status quo
and reach an agreement, one of the sides has to make the first
concession, and Armenia may not be persuaded to do so, as Russia
counterbalances any international pressure. As I noted before, the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may not be solved by negotiations as long as
the mediators have their different stakes in the issue. That is why
the recent developments have been so depressing, with diminishing
chances to move towards normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations.

I foresee the counterargument that Turkey is not a side of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, Turkey openly declared its support
for Azerbaijan and mentioned the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution
as a precondition for the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations,
connecting two issues. Therefore, a concession and progress on one of
the issues would help solve the other, and vice versa. Armenia will
not have to make concessions, as long as Russia agrees with that. For
Azerbaijan, making a concession first is too difficult, as control
over parts of its territory is at stake. Turkey faces the least
obstacles for taking the first step and, again, a move strengthening
Armenia’s safety and reducing dependence on Russia could change
Armenia’s attitude.

However, as hopes for opening the Turkish-Armenian border and other
possibilities of reducing tension in the region seem too idealistic
now, keeping the status quo may be the lesser evil. The possibility of
renewed fighting aside, repeated threats to use force and the
armaments race are enough to provoke the realization that the
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and regional cooperation
in the South Caucasus may be impossible. As the well-informed Russian
military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer recently told RFE/RL, “If Russia
has to station its peacekeeping forces in the conflict zone, that will
be good for Russia – [it] has wanted that since 1994.”

Overcoming the traditional way of thinking is necessary for changing
the status quo in the Armenian-Azerbaijani-Turkish triangle. In the
foreseeable future, Turkey will remain the only party involved capable
of making a decisive move, as it is the most democratic, most
developed, and least dependent on foreign powers. The next few months
will show whether there is still room for hope, or if closed borders
and dividing lines may remain in the region, perhaps for decades.

Tert.am