Author: Kanayan Tamar

Family Security Matters
Oct 9 2011

Armenia’s Challenge

Darlene Casella

Happy 20th Birthday, Republic of Armenia. When you blew out candles
on your cake, no doubt thoughts wandered back in history to centuries
old struggles for existence as a people with a national identity.
Before succeeding from the USSR and creating an independent state; you
survived Roman, Byzantine, Arab, Persian and Ottoman Empires; and you
endured the first genocide of the twentieth century.

Armenia was the first nation to formally adopt Christianity, in the
4th century. The small nation is land locked amidst the Muslim
dominated countries of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran and Turkey.

Independence from the Soviet Union came to Armenia and Azerbaijan in
1991; both claimed Nagorno Karabakh, an Armenian populated region
assigned to Soviet Azerbaijan in the 1920s. Peace was negotiated and
Nagorno Karabakh declared independence in 1994. Conflicts continue as
independence is not recognized by Azerbaijan. Turkey backs Azerbaijan;
Armenia backs Karabakh.

Iran offers to be a mediator with the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe, which handles the Karabakh dispute. The
American Embassy in Armenia has no ambassador. Mathew Bryza, an
American envoy, said in a press interview on October 4th, 2011 that
Iran cannot be a mediator in that peace process.

Due to the Karabakh dispute, Turkey closed the Armenian border in 1994
and has an embargo. Armenia is kept out of projects such as the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas
pipeline, and the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railway. Turkey closed the rail
line from Kars to Baku. Armenian trade and economic growth are at
grave disadvantage. All efforts to thaw relations with Turkey have
ended in failure.

Coal, natural gas, and oil have not been found in Armenia. She suffers
energy shortages due to the blockade. Two nuclear reactors were
commissioned by the Soviets in 1979; and shut down in 1988 after the
Spitak Earthquake. A reactor at the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant, 10
miles from the Turkish border, is being restarted. Turkey is in an
uproar.

Armenia’s Environmental Committee Chairman, Samuel Shahinian, said
`Our people are so cold; we just want them to be warm. Everyone should
realize that we have no other choice.’
ARMROS Gazprom transports natural gas from Russia to Armenia via
Georgia through the Caucasus Mountains. Repairs have just been
completed to correct an interruption in that supply. Russia remains
Armenia’s strategic ally.

Despite religious and ideological differences, the Islamic Republic of
Iran, maintains good relations with Armenia. Projects that will
supply Iranian natural gas into Armenia with a future goal of a
pipeline that will bring gas to Europe through Georgia and the Black
Sea have begun. There is a project in construction of two hydro
electric plants on the Arax River which is on the border of Armenia
and Iran. Armenia is building a super highway to Iran.

At the 66th session of the United Nations last week, President Serzh
Sargosian delivered a speech stating that Azerbaijan and Turkey
impede normalization efforts regarding Karabakh. `Two decades ago
the people of Nagorno-Karabakh made a choice, and exercised their
right to self determination. They have survived war and bloodshed to
earn their freedom. Karabakh is not only about land, it is about
people.’ He continued `Turkey continues to engage in policy to deny
the Ottoman-era genocide of Armenians between 1915 – 1918.’

President Medvedev has meetings planned in Russia this month with
Sargosian. Vladimir Putin’s announcement to replace Medvedev as the
Russian President causes new questions for Armenia. Robert Kocharyan,
Armenia’s former President, is a close friend of Putin. Months ago
he increased his media presence and published a book filled with his
heroic deeds. The `Putin Factor’ is causing Armenian speculation. In
an interview on Media Max, Robert Kocharyan said that he doesn’t rule
out the possibility of his return to big politics. `I am amazed that
my possible return is linked to political processes in Russia’.

The revered Mustafa Ataturk Kemal founded the modern Turkish Republic
in 1923. In an interview with the Los Angeles Examiner he said `These
left over young Turks should have been made to account for the
millions of our Christian subjects who were driven from their homes
and massacred.’ Prime Minister Erdogan unwinds Ataturk’s dream; he
blockades Armenia and denies the Ottoman massacre. Armenia turns
towards Iran, a warm neighbor in the cold Caucasus Mountains.

Family Security Matters Contributor Darlene Casella was, before her
retirement, an English teacher, a stockbroker, and president/owner of
a small corporation. She lives with her husband in , California, and
can be reached at [email protected] Quinta

The Moscow Times
Oct 9 2011

Sarkozy Raps Russia During Caucasus Tour
09 October 2011

TBILISI, Georgia – French President Nicolas Sarkozy accused Russia
before a cheering crowd in Georgia on Friday of violating the
ceasefire that ended the 2008 war in the Caucasus and assured his
audience that the door to the European Union remains open.

Sarkozy addressed some 30,000 people packing Freedom Square in
Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi, his last stop on a two-day Caucasus tour
that also took him to Armenia and Azerbaijan.

He said Russia had flouted the truce he brokered to end its five-day
war with Georgia by building up forces in the breakaway regions of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia instead of withdrawing to pre-conflict
positions.

“France will not resign itself to a fait accompli,” he said, with
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili looking on. “I would like to
reiterate here my commitment to watch over the enforcement of the
accord.”

Russia strengthened its control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the
brief war and recognized them as independent nations afterward,
clouding Saakashvili’s hopes of bringing Georgia into NATO and the EU.

Sarkozy said Georgia was “free to express its aspirations to join
NATO, if it is the will of the people,” as well as “to draw closer to
the European Union and one day join.”

“When I am in Tbilisi, I feel I am in Europe,” he said.

Sarkozy also pleased his hosts in Armenia, warning Turkey that it
might soon become illegal in France to deny that the mass killing of
Armenians in the Ottoman Empire in 1915 was genocide. He called on
Turkey to make a “gesture of reconciliation” and recognize the
killings as genocide.

If it does not, he said, France “will consider whether it must go
further to amend its legislation to penalize this denial.”

He urged Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve their dispute over
Nagorno-Karabakh, a mainly Armenian-populated enclave in Azerbaijan.

“The time has come to take the risk of peace,” Sarkozy said at a
meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan.

“Armenians, Azeris and Turks: You must choose this path. There is no
other, it is the path of peace,” he said.

Artsakh capital celebrates City Day

October 9, 2011 – 15:40 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – On October 8, President of the Artsakh Republic Bako
Sahakyan took part in festive events dedicated to the Day of
Stepanakert.

The head of state accompanied by the country’s high-ranking officials
visited the traditional fair organized in the capital, thereafter the
exhibition of photographs depicting old and modern Stepanakert held at
the Youth and Culture Palace.

On the same day, President Sahakyan attended a concert dedicated to
the Day of Stepanakert, reported the Central Information Department of
the Office of the Artsakh Republic President.

Aram I proclaims 2011 `The Year of the Armenian Child’

October 9, 2011 – 16:06 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – His Holiness Aram I, Catholicos of the Great House
of Cilicia and spiritual leader of Armenian Diaspora, visited Glendale
Memorial Hospital as part of a larger tour of Southern California.

Having proclaimed 2011 `The Year of the Armenian Child,’ the pontiff
bestowed blessings to some of the hospital’s patients, newborns and
other visitors, Los Angeles Times reported.

The pontiff’s itinerary for his 20-day tour includes a lecture at UCLA
and visits to local churches, schools and other organizations.

Daily Star, UK
Oct 8 2011

DAMIEN DUFF CONFIDENT IRELAND’S DEFENCE IS TOUGH ENOUGH FOR ARMENIA

By Cathal Dervan

DAMIEN Duff thinks even the free-scoring Armenians are going to find
it tough to break through Ireland’s defence in their European
Championship showdown.

Giovanni Trapattoni’s side made it eight clean sheets on the trot in
Friday night’s 2-0 win away to Andorra.

Armenia are next up for the Irish and a ninth clean sheet in a row at
the Aviva Stadium will be enough to seal a play-off spot for Duff and
his team-mates.

Group B’s top scorers go to Dublin with 21 goals to their credit from
just nine games in this Euro qualifying campaign, including four
against John Toshack’s Macedonia on Friday – but Duff has warned them
it won’t be easy to beat Shay Given.

`That’s eight clean sheets on the bounce now which is some record – it
is going to take something special to stop it,’ said the Fulham
winger.

`Since the manager came in, he has made us really well organised and
difficult to break down and the run we are on at the moment proves
that.

`It’s going to be an interesting game against Armenia because they
have come with a late run in this group and they have been scoring a
lot of goals of late. Their attack is very dangerous and our defence
is very strong. It’s going to be a fascinating battle.’

Like Duff, former Celtic winger Aiden McGeady believes Ireland might
finally get the credit they deserve for a 1-0 win away to Armenia in
their opening qualifier.

The Spartak Moscow star, who scored against Andorra on Friday, said:
`People said that was a bad result at the time – but they might have
changed their minds now.

`They are the form team in the group at the moment so we will have to
accept that it is going to be a tough game.

`The draw’s enough for us but we want to win.’

Anadolu Agency, Turkey
Oct 7 2011

Sarkozy’s remarks on Armenia -Turkey’s EU minister says it will be
better if Sarkozy deals with EU’s future instead of history

SARAJEVO (A.A) -Turkey’s European Union (EU) minister and chief
negotiator said on Friday that it would be better if the French
president dealt with the union’s future instead of history.

Egemen Bagis said Nicolas Sarkozy if Sarkozy worked on how his country
could come out of the economic turbulence instead of assuming the role
of historians, it would be more meaningful for France and Europe.

“If Sarkozy develops projects on the future of the EU, it will be more
meaningful for not only EU-member France but also world peace and
order,” Bagis told reporters in Sarajevo, Bosnia-Hercegovina.

Bagis’s remarks came after Sarkozy had said France could pass a law,
similar to that in Switzerland, which would support Armenian
allegations regarding the incidents of 1915.

“Sarkozy must have been frightened with the results of recent
political surveys in France so that he is assuming such approaches,”
Bagis said.

Bagis also said the duty of politicians was not to deal with history
and some incidents that occurred in the past, but to set the future.

news.az, Azerbaijan
Oct 8 2011

Sarkozy witnessed poverty in Yerevan, development in Baku
Sat 08 October 2011 07:59 GMT | 3:59 Local Time

News.Az interviews Rasim Musabayov, member of the Azerbaijani
Parliament, Milli Majlis, and political expert.
What benefits will French President Nicolas Sarkocy’s visit bring for
South Caucasus countries in terms of further expansion of inter-state
relations?

French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s visit to all three South Caucasus
countries was very important for Azerbaijan. This was important since
Sarkozy saw poor Armenia, Tbilisi which also makes a lot of effort,
but has not changed so much and also completely changed, progressing
and developing Baku.

What is important is that Sarkozy personally could see the possibility
of capitals of the three Caucasus countries so that he would recall
the panorama of Yerevan, Tbilisi and Baku when making decisions in
future. Sarkozy saw poverty in Yerevan, minor changes in Tbilisi and
progress in Baku.

Are claims of Armenian politicians that the visit to Armenia was more
important for Sarkozy than those to Baku and Tbilisi?

A visit to Armenia was important for Sarkozy in terms of solution of
domestic problems in France. It is known that Sarkozy has slightly
spoiled relations with the Armenian diaspora in recent years as he
dismissed one of their representatives in government. He also rejected
a Senate bill which envisaged criminal responsibility for denial of an
imaginary “genocide” of Armenians. Therefore, Sarkozy tries to regain
the support from the Armenian diaspora with this visit to Armenia.

As for Armenia, as we know, the Armenian market is small, and
therefore, the economy of Armenia is not of any interest to France.
The things are different in Azerbaijan where large French companies
have presence. In addition to major French oil companies in
Azerbaijan, French capital is also involved in construction of large
industrial enterprises and other facilities. Moreover, Azerbaijan
constantly purchases French-made airplanes. In this regard, I believe
Sarkozy’s visit to the region was important. The visit was very
important for Sarkozy himself, too. So, Sarkozy’s visit will have an
impact on policy of this country towards South Caucasus countries in
event of re-election as president of France.

Is Sarkozy an influential politician in the European Union so that his
mediation mission will cause a progress in Karabakh conflict
resolution?

Germany is an economic engine of Europe while France is a county which
identifies direction of European policy. So, in addition to a
statement in Yerevan that in event of Turkey’s refusal to recognize
“Armenian genocide”, he, as a president of France, will also make
efforts to institute a criminal responsibility for denying the
“genocide”, Sarkozy also said that the parties to the Karabakh
conflict should be prepared for difficult decisions. I think it is
possible that before the 2012 presidential elections Sarkozy will not
take drastic action on the Karabakh conflict settlement, so as not to
oppose the Armenian diaspora itself. However, we can witness new
initiatives on the part of France after the electoral process.

Can the intensified efforts by France be interpreted as Moscow’s
handing over brokerage to Paris within the OSCE Minsk Group?

Such a hand-over did not tae place though it is expectable. Anyway,
handover of brokerage by one OSCE Minsk Group co-chair to another will
take place after the elections. As it is known, previous French
President Jacques Chirac organized two meeting between Azerbaijani and
Armenian Presidents which, unfortunately, did not produce results.

May the European Union become a leading power center to assist in
achieving progress in the Karabakh conflict settlement?

Not yet. But I do not rule out that appointment of an official
responsible for the negotiating process can help solve the problem. I
also do not rule out that the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict can change if such an influential politician like Martti
Ahtisaari (former President of Finland) or not less influential Tony
Blair (former UK PM) are appointed as a moderator.

A moderator must be a reputable person who will not only meet with
leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, but also, if necessary, will be
able to contact directly with the presidents of France, the United
States and Russia in order to unite their efforts to achieve peace in
the right time.

I therefore believe that in case such influential persons like Martti
Ahtisaari and Tony Blair are appointed moderators, the EU will have
significant opportunities to influence Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
resolution process.

What does Baku expect the stepped up efforts of France bring about in
the conflict settlement?

Either way, Azerbaijan needs to establish close ties with France.
Azerbaijan has no ability to attract France through power. I say this
once again that it was enough for Nicolas Sarkozy to arrive in Baku to
witness the opportunities Azerbaijan possesses.

N.H.
News.Az

news.az, Azerbaijan
Oct 8 2011

Armenia still remains a more strategic partner of France than Azerbaijan
Sat 08 October 2011 05:51 GMT | 1:51 Local Time

News.Az interviews Samuel Lussac, a PhD candidate at the Institute of
Political Studies in Bordeaux, studying relations in the South
Caucasus.
What are the interests of France in the South Caucasus?

France has different interests according to which South Caucasian
state we are looking at. In Armenia, the French interests are mostly
domestic. The Armenian Diaspora in France represents around 500,000
people. It is a very active community in French politics. As such, it
is important for French political leaders to get support from this
community. The recent comments of President Sarkozy and of
presidential candidate François Hollande about the legislative
recognition of the Armenian genocide have to be understood in this
context.

In Azerbaijan, the French interests are related to business. The
Paris-based oil company Total is the third largest shareholder on the
Azerbaijani energy market. And it will play an increasing role since
the discovery, together with the French gas company GDF Suez and
SOCAR, of the Absheron gas field in early September. More importantly,
some French companies such as Thales hope to win the billion-dollars
contract for the expansion of the Baku subway. French companies may be
more and more active in Azerbaijan and President Sarkozy intends to
support them.

Finally, the French interests in Georgia are linked to France’s
foreign policy. In 2008, President Sarkozy has succeeded as a
peace-maker. On the eve of the next presidential elections in France,
planned in April 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy aims at strengthening his
reputation as a president who cares of the state of the world. In this
context, the French intervention in Libya earlier this year was a
success. Georgia, with the current status quo in Abkhazia and in South
Ossetia, gives him another opportunity to do so.

Therefore, each South Caucasian carries different interests for
France. However, it should be underlined that France intends to be
more and more active in the whole South Caucasus and not only in
Armenia, which is quite a change in French foreign policy.

President Sarkozy’s visit to Armenia was almost 2 day’s, while visit
to Azerbaijan and Georgia was paid during only one day. Does it mean
that French interests in Armenia are bigger? Or President Sarkozy
indeed needs support from Armenian Diaspora during upcoming elections
in France, as `Figaro’ writes?

As mentioned above, the current French political leadership has bigger
interests at stake in Armenia than in Azerbaijan or in Georgia. In
France, the visit of President Sarkozy to Baku and Tbilisi received
very little attention compared to his stay in Armenia. The Armenian
genocide is a long-standing issue in France, especially as Sarkozy
already promised in 2007 to get the law on the recognition of the
genocide ratified by the Senate. Even if French interests in
Azerbaijan are getting bigger and bigger, Armenia still remains a more
strategic partner of France than Azerbaijan.

N.Sarkozy expressed a wish to help resolve the Karabakh conflict. What
France may do to assist the Karabakh settlement?

This is a good question. And I have no answer to be honest. France is
already a co-chair of the Minsk Group and I can hardly see what else
it can do. Some prospects would be to copy the Russian role and to
organize trilateral meetings under the auspices of Paris. However, if
a lot can be said about Moscow’s involvement, France does not stand as
a honest broker in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for Azerbaijan. I
shall remind that in 1997, when, in an unexpected move for Baku,
France became co-chair of the Minsk Group, Azerbaijan insisted on the
United States to become co-chair as well. Despite its strong Armenian
Diaspora, the latter was perceived as more impartial than France. And
little has changed on this matter since 14 years.

Do demands of Armenian Diaspora concerning French policy in the South
Caucasus reflect France state interests?

It is a difficult question to answer. First, we need to distinguish
the demands of the Armenian Diaspora in France. They are twofold: the
legislative recognition of the 1915 Armenian genocide, which would
make punishable by law to call into question the reality of this
event; and the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to the
benefit of Yerevan and Stepanakert. Second, what is at stake on both
matters for France?

Ratifying the law on the Armenian genocide means to antagonize Turkey,
which is an important trade partner of France. Supporting only the
Armenian view on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the occupied
territories would lead to increasing tensions in the South Caucasus.
None are in the interest of France. Therefore, what is at stake with
President Sarkozy’s visit to the South Caucasus is to find a balance
between promoting French trade interests and getting the support of
the Armenian Diaspora on the eve of crucial 2012 presidential
elections.

How would you estimate future of Azeri-French relations?

Quite good to be honest. The outcome of President Sarkozy’s visit is
already known: he will encourage Turkey to recognize the Armenian
genocide, he will call both Armenia and Azerbaijan to find peace, and
he will ask for a diplomatic solution in Abkhazia and in South Ossetia
and support Georgia’s European identity. From Armenian and Georgian
points of view, there is nothing new here. However, the situation is
quite new from an Azerbaijani perspective. Sarkozy’s visit is the
first one of a French President in Azerbaijan since the independence.
It came after a year of strong cultural and political activism of both
the Heydar Aliyev Foundation and the Azerbaijani Embassy in Paris.
Some French leading political figures such as former Minister of
Justice Rachida Dati or Secretary of State in charge of Transportation
Thierry Mariani have recently encouraged France and French companies
to take a closer look at Azerbaijan. French business interests are
becoming more and more important in Azerbaijan, not only in the oil
sector but also in the construction and transportations ones.

Therefore, it is very likely that Azerbaijani-French relations will
increase in a near future. To the benefit of whom? I can’t answer this
question yet. But it will be of interest to assess the role of France
in the South Caucasus in the next couple of years.

F.H.
News.Az

APA, Azerbaijan
Oct 7 2011

Azerbaijan’s Presidential Administration: We do not share French
President’s views concerning the genocide or the opening of the
borders

[ 07 Oct 2011 12:51 ]
Baku. Rashad Suleymanov – APA. `Azerbaijan does not share the views of
French President Nicolas Sarkozy concerning the genocide or the
opening of the borders,’ chief of the socio-political department of
the Presidential Administration Ali Hasanov said, APA reports.

Commenting on French President’s statement in Armenia threatening
Turkey, official of the Presidential Administration said it is the
outcome of the international policy.

`Baku has never differentiated between the interests of Turkey and
Azerbaijan both in terms of the developments in the South Caucasus and
international issues,’ he said.

Ali Hasanov told journalists that with the visit of Sarkozy to
Azerbaijan and the region, France’s efforts are added to the efforts
of Russia towards the resolution of Karabakh problem within the
framework of OSCE Minsk Group.

The department chief said Sarkozy’s efforts do not mean the oppression
of Russia.
`Russia was more actively engaged in the resolution of Karabakh
problem. We think that France’s active involvement in the problem will
result in the active involvement of the US in future. All the three
states want the change of the status quo.

`The change of the status quo means change of the situation around
Nagorno Karabakh, maintenance of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity
and implementation of four resolutions of the UN Security Council,’ he
said.

Ali Hasanov said French President’s visit, his views about the
inadmissibility and change of the status quo will contribute to
establishing peace in the South Caucasus.

Azerbaijan Business Center
Oct 7 2011

Sarkozy calls on Turkey to recognize `Armenian genocide’ and ready to
pass a `genocide’ negation punishment law

Baku, Fineko/abc.az. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is arriving
today in Azerbaijan with an official visit within the framework of his
tour around the South Caucasian states.

Yesterday he paid a visit to Armenia, and ruined much Baku
expectations from his trip. Instead of a call to Armenia to make peace
with Azerbaijan, trumpeted by his press-service, in Yerevan Sarkozy
called on Turkey to reconsider its history and acknowledge the of
Armenians’ deaths nearly a century ago as genocide.

“The Armenian genocide is a historical fact. Its collective negation
is much worse than if one person would deny it. Turkey is a great
country, and if it reconsiders its story, like the other great
countries, it would mean that it respects itself,” the French head
stated.

He also stressed France’s readiness to adopt a law, under which the
denial of this genocide will be considered a crime, as it was done in
respect to denial of the Holocaust during World War II.

Despite all political directionality of this statement (presidential
election in France is at hand and Sarkozy needs votes of active
Armenian Diaspora), it will not bring success to “peace” tour of the
French incumbent. The point here is not even in strong ties between
Azerbaijan and Turkey, and the fact that Armenia itself usually calls
both the Turks and Azerbaijanis by one name – “Turkes” (Turks).

Given the well-known Armenian exaltation, the recognition of
“genocide” by Turkey would also mean guilt of Azerbaijan that will
hardly improve the background of peaceful settlement of
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Garabagh conflict. And in
case it occurs, the aggressor that has occupied 20% of the territory
of Azerbaijan, Armenia, will receive a moral right to consider itself
a victim of this conflict in the eyes of its own people.