Author: Kanayan Tamar

ARMENIA’S ECONOMY SINCE INDEPENDENCE
by David Grigorian

hetq
22:04, January 24, 2012

International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Policy Forum Armenia (PFA)

The article was first published at the London-based Foreign Policy
Centre.

Foreword

A common analysis of Armenia’s economic performance since independence
typically focuses on the limitations imposed by geography and
geopolitics and mostly ignores, or at best glosses over, the failures
of governance and policy to deliver on what could have reasonably
been expected. Proponents of such views fail to provide conclusive
evidence of trade-imposed barriers to growth and progress in Armenia,
or explain why other countries with similar governance characteristics
but unhindered external trade remain poor. While I recognize the
limitations imposed by the geopolitics and security considerations on
the economic and social outcomes in general and in the Armenian context
in particular, I am of the view that policymakers in Yerevan since
1991 have imposed additional constraints that became significantly
more binding than geography and security and adversely influenced
economic and social outcomes. The remainder of this article builds
on this premise and highlights the specific policy failures that,
in my view, are to be blamed for the current state of economic and
social affairs in Armenia.

Armenia’s Economic Performance

Armenia’s path since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 can
be broken down into three rather distinct periods as follows: (i)
1991-99 (ii) 2000-07, and (iii) 2008 to present day. I highlight the
specific features of these periods in Armenia’s independent history
in detail below.

Post-Transition Progress (1991-99)

Armenia’s return to growth in 1994-the first among the former Soviet
republics still recovering after the collapse of the USSR-was nothing
short of remarkable and was achieved while the economy was recovering
from the impact of a devastating earthquake and a full-blown war with
the neighboring Azerbaijan.

Growth was underpinned by speedy and largely successful small- and
medium-size state-owned enterprise and land privatizations. Yet the
failure to create conditions for proper functioning of the markets
and the lack of a meaningful role for the state became key constraints
for progress thereafter. Ongoing conflict in Nagorno Karabakh and the
legacy of a highly industrialized but by now mostly obsolete economic
structure did not help.

Here is a short list of factors that proved critical and have
influenced much of what had happened next:

~UFirst signs of the nouveau riche concentrating sizable wealth and
getting close to economic decision-making have emerged.

~UThe seeds of authoritarian governance were effectively sown.

Generals, returning from the front lines, were getting increasingly
powerful and had a major role to play in the hotly contested and
violent 1996 election.[1] ~UThe promise to get the Diaspora involved
meaningfully in rebuilding Armenia was effectively reversed.[2] The
assassination of then Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsyan-a controversial
figure, who nevertheless is widely seen as perhaps the only hope
Armenia had for building a strong statehood-and six others on October
27, 1999 in the parliament ended this period. The very high levels
of public buy-in and social cohesion, which were present during the
early 1990s but almost disappeared during the post-war reconstruction
period, surfaced during V. Sargsyan’s short tenure in office, to
never re-appear again.

Qualitative Stagnation (2000-2007)

The period coincides with the rule of Robert Kocharyan, whose
particular political skills allowed him to consolidate power after the
October 1999 assassinations and played a dominant role in this handling
of both political and economic affairs in the country. This period
witnessed double digit growth of GDP and macro-financial stability,
but was marred by much of the same lack of regard for good governance
and properly functioning markets.

The construction sector, which was the main engine of growth during
this period, absorbed sizable amounts of credit and labor resources,
driving interest rates, exchange rate, and wages up throughout the
rest of the economy. Under these conditions and without effective
policy intervention, the economy failed to diversify despite very
strong signs of promise shown by some sectors (most notably, IT and
agro-processing), effectively preparing the ground for the dramatic
decline of GDP in 2009 (see below). Remittances and other transfers
from abroad, which fueled this construction boom, complicated the
macroeconomic management and created adverse dependence at the
microeconomic/household level.

On the budgetary side, the period is characterized by a highly
pro-cyclical fiscal policy, with budget being in deficit even during
years of double digit growth. Despite this, Armenia’s spending on
health, education, and public investment was among the lowest in the
world measured as percent of GDP. Much of this was underpinned by poor
tax revenue collection, itself a function of the presence of powerful
oligarchs that were outside of the reach of the tax authorities. These
oligarchs have functioned under the direct patronage of country’s
political leadership and grew more influential in public life and
economic decision making. The resulting monopolies in production
and import of key commodities curtailed competition, limited growth,
and resulted in higher prices.

“In the doldrums” (2008-present)

This period is characterized by political upheaval of 2008 and
the impact of the global crisis. The poor crisis preparedness and
inadequate policy mix during 2008-09 (with disproportionate reliance
on externally financed fiscal stimulus compared to exchange rate and
structural policies) resulted in a 14.2 percent decline in GDP in
2009, one of the worst performances in the world since the beginning
of the current crisis.[3] After 4 years, real GDP is still below its
2007 level and is projected to grow only modestly in the medium term,
with sizable headwinds from Europe likely to undermine this outlook.

While some attempts were made to raise the level of tax-to-GDP,
these efforts faced resistance from the oligarchs and the decline
in economic activity. This put most of the burden of the stimulus on
foreign borrowing. Public debt, while still largely on concessional
terms, has reached alarming levels and composition (in excess of
40 percent of GDP by end-2011 from 16 percent as of end-2008, with
close to 90 percent of it denominated in foreign currencies), with
a sizable chunk of repayments scheduled for 2012-14.

Here are some highlights that should help get a better sense of the
governance and policy landscape in the country at present:

~UState capture, the control of the economy by special interest groups,
has gotten worse. Economy remains highly concentrated in the hands
of people directly/indirectly involved in politics.

~UMigration, by now of the middle class, has intensified; [4]
inequality and poverty are rising.

~UDevelopmental agenda is lacking and any future plans to vitalize
the economy will face an overvalued exchange rate, corruption, uneven
playing field, and weak property rights.

Overall, it is unclear as to where the potential growth could be coming
from going forward, assuming the same quality of governance, ongoing
political polarization and social discontent following the March 1-2,
2008 killing of demonstrators, and continued disengagement of the
Diaspora (that may have acted as a catalyst for foreign investment and
a champion for better governance). In the meantime, much of the same
policies are being pursued and population is growing frustrated by the
day with the regime’s handling of economic and social affairs and the
brave face it puts while explaining its failure to deliver on promises.

In conclusion

Despite the mounting challenges on almost every important front, there
remain grounds for optimism. Clearly, the experience of early 1990s,
with progress made under the most severe of conditions, as well as
the still sizable human capital and strong commitment to “making
it work” among local population and the Diaspora, provide hope for
the economy’s future, given better governance. Also, experience of
neighboring Georgia, with swift improvement in governance and the
elimination of retail corruption, is very encouraging. All in all,
with a clean and democratic political leadership that can unite all
constructive forces and help attract investments and talent from the
Diaspora; a technocratic government that understands how the modern
world functions and offers a meaningful way forward; and a strong
public buy-in to underpin the reform efforts, there is practically
no limit to what the country can achieve despite the constraints that
are imposed by geography and security.

But we are not there yet and time is running out quickly given the
scale and the scope of challenges posed by the pervasive nature
of whole-sale corruption, adverse demographic developments, and
challenging geopolitics. The main directions of the effort should be
aimed at de-politicizing economic decision-making and building a vision
as well as development-intensive policy capacity. The alternative to
following this path is worrisome, if not outright scary.

David Grigorian is a Senior Economist at the International Monetary
Fund’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department and a co-founder of
Policy Forum Armenia, a virtual think tank with world-wide membership.

He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Maryland at
College Park and has published on a wide range of issues including
growth and institutions, prices and fiscal policy, remittances,
capital markets, and banking.

References

Amnesty International (1996). “Armenia: Amnesty International
Calls for Investigations into Beatings of Opposition
Supporters Following Election Protests.” Available from:

Policy Forum Armenia (2008a). “Armenia’s 2008 Presidential Election:
Select Issues and Analysis,” PFA Special Report. Available from:

Policy Forum Armenia (2008b). “Implications of the World Financial
Crisis for Armenia’s Economy,” PFA Special Report. Available from:

Policy Forum Armenia (2010). ” Armenia-Diaspora relations: 20 Years
Since Independence,” a State of the Nation Report. Available from:

——————————————————————————–

[1] While no demonstrators were killed, Amnesty International (1996)
describes the use of force and repressions against civilians in the
aftermath of the election, where the incumbent received 51.75 percent
of the vote, barely sufficient to avoid the second round. PFA (2008a)
puts those developments in the context of the prevailing political
culture of the time.

[2] See PFA (2010) for an extensive discussion on this issue.

[3] For a discussion of alternative policies available to the
government in the sake of the crisis, see PFA (2008b).

[4] While still largely anecdotal, some evidence of this began
surfacing following the release of the US diplomatic cables from the
Embassy in Yerevan describing the phenomenon and providing specific
examples.

ARMENIE-AZERBAIDJAN: MOSCOU POURRAIT ASSURER UNE MEDIATION
Serguei Guneev

RIA Novosti
23/01/2012

Les presidents armenien et azerbaïdjanais ont demande a la Russie
de jouer un rôle de mediateur dans l’etablissement de relations
entre les deux pays, a declare lundi le chef de la diplomatie russe
Sergueï Lavrov.

“Bakou et Erevan ont demande a la Russie de promouvoir de tels
contacts. Bien evidemment, Dmitri Medvedev a accepte”, a indique le
ministre, soulignant que Moscou “a toujours soutenu les liens de ce
genre et est pret a assumer le rôle de mediateur a cet effet”.

Commentant la reunion entre les president russe, azerbaidjanais et
armenien, Dmitri Medvedev, Ilham Aliev et Serge Sargsian, M.Lavrov
a fait remarquer que les trois hommes d’Etat jugeaient necessaire
d’etablir des liens humanitaires, culturels, educatifs et autres
entre les peuples.

Les leaders de l’Azerbaïdjan, de l’Armenie et de la Russie ont tenu
lundi a Sotchi leur dixième sommet tripartite afin d’evoquer notamment
la situation autour de la region du Haut-Karabakh.

Le conflit du Haut-Karabakh remonte a fevrier 1988, lorsque cette
region autonome principalement peuplee d’Armeniens a annonce son
intention de se separer de l’Azerbaïdjan. Cette demarche a provoque
des hostilites entre les troupes armeniennes et azerbaïdjanaises a
la suite desquelles Bakou a perdu le contrôle de la region.

Le cessez-le-feu decrete le 12 mai 1994 est regulièrement viole par
les deux parties. Bakou et Erevan n’arrivent toujours pas a se mettre
d’accord sur le statut de la region.

Paris’s Folly
YAVUZ BAYDAR

Today’s Zaman
Jan 24 2012
Turkey

The French Senate’s passing of the bill which criminalizes the denial
of the mass deportations and massacres of the Ottoman Armenians in
1915 is simply an act of folly.

Let us first ignore the disproportionate and questionable (in
principle) reaction of Ankara, which seems to echo the folly at new
heights. Regardless of that, the vote on Monday night will serve
nothing good, other than the short-term interests of the French
politicians. But, in the mid- and long-term perspective, it will set
a negative example of how the French decision-makers attempt to limit
the area of free speech and cause delays in Turkey’s social process
of reconciliation of the disaster and bringing it to a closure.

To begin with, the text of the law is problematic. Both of the
terms used to describe the ‘crimes’ (‘outranciere’ – ‘outragous’ and
‘minimiser’ – ‘to minimize’) – defined as ‘genocide’. These terms
are, to say the least, ambiguous, and open to interpretation. And,
I am inclined to believe, the law contradicts the Article #34 of
Constitution of France. Namely the part, that goes: ‘…civic rights
and the fundamental guarantees granted to citizens for the exercise
of their civil liberties; freedom, diversity and the independence
of the media; the obligations imposed for the purposes of national
defence upon the person and property of citizens…’

It is a domestic matter for the French to take the issue further,
but I have an inkling it will flare up only after the presidential
elections. This is exactly as described in an Anatolian proverb:
“A madman throws a stone into a well, it takes 40 [sane] men to take
it out.” What happens, say, if Turkish, German or Russian military
archives (still fully coiled or with strictly limited access) offer
new aspects in the future for academics to question the thesis of
“Armenian Genocide”? It may be a weak prospect, but what if? No doubt,
the current law already puts a great strain on the freedom of French
scholarship on the subject.

What unites Turkey and countries like France is their willingness
to restrict freedom of speech in the matter of genocide. True, in
many cases, the denial of crimes of this nature can fall into the
domain of racism and sheer hatred, thus offending the victims’ kin,
but more often it is used worldwide to exercise skeptical views,
doubt, nuances and civilized objections.

In Turkey, there are many such examples of people who fall into the
latter category, separate from Armenian-haters or nationalists,
and their restraint in calling it genocide is based on the lack
of proper debate, and French-like laws — such as Article No. 301
of the Turkish Penal Code (TCK) — which scare them from debating
freely. Therefore, many of us here fight firmly to have Article 301
fully abolished so that more and more Turks can be informed and reach
their own conclusions. The more they have access to diverse views,
the more revived their conscience will be to face the Great Pain
of the Armenians. The less third-party interventions by legislating
history and through memory laws, the easier the process. Thus, Paris
has only hit the brakes on this one.

The immediate effect of the folly is the mutual political
instrumentalization of the tragedy. As described spot-on by Timothy
Garton Ash in The Guardian newspaper, (“In France, genocide has become
a political brickbat,” Jan. 18): “..a tragedy which should be the
subject for grave commemoration and free historical debate, calmly
testing even wayward hypotheses against the evidence, is reduced to an
instrument of political manipulation, a politician’s brickbat. The
corpse counts of yesterday are parlayed into the vote counts of
tomorrow. You accuse me of genocide, I accuse you of genocide.”

The Armenian diaspora in France and elsewhere may feel (with
justification from their perspective) relieved, and many Turks —
still not fully aware of the crimes of humanity in their past —
feel outraged, but what brings them together is the usage of their
lack of closure by outside actors. They are abused. France is not,
will never be, on the high moral ground on this one.

A good sign, after all, is the reaction by Turkey’s Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan yesterday. By underlining “patience and calm,” he
is now on the right track to reduce the tension. Where does he stand
on 1915? Not so clear, but he is the one that initiated the Turkish
glasnost 10 years ago — a process that moves in slow motion and hits
bumps on the path. The awakening is now a fact, and irreversible.

The process of Turkey’s glasnost is based on taking into account the
bloody tradition of the Young Turks and the Committee of Union and
Progress, which set the patterns 100 years ago through a series of
erratic moves and crimes against humanity. If anything, Erdogan knows
what he is up against and who in Turkey supports him if he aims for
historic closure.

TURKISH WEBSITE LETS YOU ‘SLAP SARKOZY’

Hurriyet Daily News

Jan 24 2012
Turkey

A Turkish gaming website unveiled today an Internet-based game that
lets you slap French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

The video game was uploaded to the website hours after
a piece of legislation criminalizing the denial of Armenian genocide
claims was approved by the French Senate.

The game, titled “Slap Sarkozy,” lets you control an on-screen hand
with your mouse and slap an unsuspecting Sarkozy standing in front
of a backdrop of Paris scenery as hard as possible.

In the definition section of the game, the developers ask players,
“Don’t you think Sarkozy deserves a good slap in the face?” and gives
a brief account of the recent political developments that led to the
approval of the “genocide denial” law.

The game comes in seven different languages; unsurprisingly, French
is not one of them.

The game calculates how fast you hit Sarkozy and gives the result
in kilometers per hour. Any slap that falls below 200 km/h is deemed
“unsuccessful” by the game.

You can click here to play the game:

FRENCH SENATOR NATHALIE GOULET: “WHEN 60 SENATORS WILL SIGN WE WILL APPEAL TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL COUNCIL” – EXCLUSIVE

APA
Jan 24 2012
Azerbaijan

“It will damage terribly the relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan”

Baku. Victoria Dementieva – APA. A group of French Senators will
appeal to the Constitutional Council of France concerning the law
criminalizing the denial of so-called “Armenian genocide”, French
Senator Nathalie Goulet told APA.

She said they started the campaign of signing to appeal to the
Constitutional Council. “The adoption of this draft law will damage
terribly the relations with Turkey first and I am afraid probably
with Azerbaijan. We can also lose a trust as Minsk group co-chair.

The Minsk group is not working so well. When 60 senators will sign
we will appeal to the Constitutional Council”, said Goulet.

TURKEY SLAMS FRANCE OVER GENOCIDE BILL PASSAGE
By Jack Phillips

The Epoch Times

Jan 24 2012

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that Turkey
does not recognize the bill recently passed by the French Senate that
criminalizes the denial of the 1915 Armenian genocide.

Erdogan called the measure “racist and discriminatory” and said
Turkey would place sanctions on France “step by step with no retreat,”
according to the France24 television station. The bill, he said, is
“null and void” to the Turkish populace, but “we still have not lost
our hope that it can be corrected.”

The bill, which passed with 127 legislators voting in favor and 86
voting against, has not been finalized yet as it still needs French
President Nicolas Sarkozy to sign it into law.

Turkey already suspended military and political ties last December
over the bill. Now Ankara is threatening to make the split with their
NATO ally permanent. Other sanctions have been alluded to but not
spelled out.

“Not having Turkey as a diplomatic partner, especially in the Middle
East, will be felt very strongly by France,” Engin Solakoglu from
the Turkish embassy in Paris, told FRANCE 24 on Tuesday.

Turkey recognizes the massacre of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in
1915 but does not consider it a genocide. Armenians have said that
at least 1.5 million people were killed, but Turkey says the number
is actually 500,000 and adds that it should be viewed in the context
of World War I.

“Turkey’s response to the adoption of the bill had long been decided.

These measures will stay in place as long as the law stays in force,”
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Monday before the bill was
passed, according to the Hurriyet Daily News.

PERMANENT SANCTIONS AGAINST FRANCE THREATENED

Radio New Zealand

Jan 25 2012

Turkey has threatened to impose permanent sanctions on France, if
President Nicolas Sarkozy signs a bill making it a criminal offence
to deny that Ottoman Turks committed genocide against Armenians during
World War I.

Armenia says up to 1.5 million people died in 1915-16 as the Ottoman
empire split. Turkey rejects the term genocide.

Turkish ministers described the vote in the French senate to support
the bill as unjust and completely disrespectful.

Ambassador Tahsin Burcuoglu, says there will be repercussions.

The Senate approved the bill on Monday by 127 votes to 86.

MPs in the lower house approved the bill last month. Ankara froze
ties with France afterwards.

France has already recognised the killings as a genocide but the new
bill means anyone denying it faces a year in jail and a fine of 45,000
euros ($US57,000).

France has half a million citizens of Armenian descent.

Correspondents say their votes may be important in this year’s
presidential elections.

FRANCE PASSES GENOCIDE LAW, FACES TURKISH REPRISALS

Reuters

Jan 24 2012

(Reuters) – Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan attacked the French
parliament on Tuesday for passing a “discriminatory and racist” bill
which makes it illegal to deny that the mass killing of Armenians by
Ottoman Turks nearly a century ago was genocide.

However, Erdogan said there was still hope that NATO ally France
“would correct its mistake” and that any retaliatory measures would
be held back, depending on French actions.

The French Senate approved the draft law on Monday, which the lower
house also backed in December, prompting a furious response from
Ankara.

“We will not allow anyone to gain political benefit at the expense of
Turkey; the bill which was passed in France is clearly discriminatory,
racist,” Erdogan said.

“We will adopt a rational and dignified stance, we will implement our
measures step by step. Right now we are still in a period of patience,”
he told his AK Party’s deputies in the Turkish parliament.

The bill now goes to President Nicolas Sarkozy to be ratified. Turkey
accuses Sarkozy of trying to win the votes of 500,000 ethnic Armenians
in France in the two-round presidential vote on April 22 and May 6.

As Erdogan spoke, a couple of hundred protesters gathered outside
the French embassy in Ankara and consulate in Istanbul.

Many Turks see the bill as an insult to their nation, a travesty of
history and an infringement on free speech.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, who was personally against
the move, said the new law was “ill-timed”, but called on Ankara to
remain calm.

“We need good relations with it and we need to get through this
excessive phase,” Juppe said on Canal+ television. “We have very
important economic and trade ties. I hope the reality of the situation
will not be usurped by emotions.”

Some Turkish newspapers listed possible measures that Ankara might
take against France.

These included the recall of its ambassador from Paris and telling
the French ambassador to go home, reducing diplomatic ties to charge
d’affaires level, and closing Turkish airspace and waters to French
military aircraft and vessels.

Speaking shortly before Monday’s Senate vote, Erdogan said the issue
of future official visits to France would be thrown into uncertainty
if it passed the bill.

French firms stand to lose out in bids for defense contracts and
other mega-projects such as nuclear power stations.

Turkey could also seek to trumpet allegations that French actions in
Algeria in the 1950s and 1960s were also tantamount to a genocide.

“SATAN SARKOZY”

Morning headlines in Turkish newspapers were anything but calm. “A
guillotine to free thought” said Star, while Aksam described the
French move as “A guillotine to history”.

“Shame on France” cried the Vatan daily. While Sozcu, a small newspaper
that usually directs its scorn at Erdogan, found a new target with
“Satan Sarkozy”.

The mayor of Ankara has spoken of renaming the street where the
French embassy is located to Algeria Street and erecting a memorial to
Algerian victims of French colonial oppression in front of the embassy.

When the lower house backed the bill in December, Ankara cancelled
all economic, political and military meetings with Paris and briefly
recalled its ambassador for consultations.

Sarkozy is expected to ratify the bill before parliament is suspended
in February before the presidential election.

However, it could still be rejected if about 60 lawmakers agree to
appeal the decision at France’s highest court and this body considers
the text unconstitutional. The Constitutional Council would have one
month to make its decision.

Analysts believe Turkey might delay announcing measures to see how
Sarkozy handles the process.

Turkey’s ambassador in Paris, Tahsin Burcuoglu, said the vote would
lead to a “total rupture” of relations between the two countries
and Ankara could seek to downgrade its diplomatic presence in the
French capital.

Turkey cannot impose economic sanctions on France, given its membership
of the World Trade Organisation and its customs union accord with
Europe, but French firms could lose out on state-to-state-contracts,
notably in the defense sector.

France is Turkey’s fifth biggest export market and sixth biggest
supplier of imports of goods and services, and bilateral trade was
$13.5 billion in the first 10 months of last year.

Armenia, backed by many historians and parliaments, says about 1.5
million Christian Armenians were killed in what is now eastern Turkey
during World War One in a deliberate policy of genocide ordered by
the Ottoman government.

The Ottoman empire was dissolved after the end of the war, but Turkish
governments and most Turks feel the charge of genocide is an insult
to their nation. Ankara argues there was heavy loss of life on both
sides during fighting in the area.

The influential Armenian diaspora in France and the United States
has relentlessly lobbied for international support to bring Turkey
to account over the mass killings.

Their success in France will encourage those in the United States
to try harder in their annual efforts to get Washington to call what
happened a genocide.

U.S. presidents have so far ensured that those efforts have been
blocked to avoid alienating Turkey, an important regional ally.

However, President Barack Obama faces re-election this year and could
come under more pressure from the Armenian lobby, analysts say.

Some ethnic Armenians in Turkey saw the French move as unhelpful,
while saying wounds needed to be healed.

“This only will provide more grounds to nationalism and reactions
in Turkey,” said Robert Koptas, editor of Agos, a Turkish-Armenian
newspaper.

“I do not think the Turkish state will change its attitude,” said
Koptas, a son-in-law of Hrant Dink, a prominent Turkish-Armenian
journalist who was murdered in 2007 who had angered nationalists with
his articles on Armenian identity.

(Reporting By John Irish in Paris and Tulay Karadeniz and Jonathon
Burch in Ankara; Writing by Simon Cameron-Moore; editing by David
Stamp)

TURKEY SLAMS ‘INJUSTICE’ OF FRENCH LAW ON ARMENIAN GENOCIDE

StarAfrica.com

Jan 23 2012

Turkey slammed on Monday the French Senate’s adoption of a contentious
bill to outlaw denial of the…

Turkey slammed on Monday the French Senate’s adoption of a contentious
bill to outlaw denial of the Armenian genocide by Ottoman Turks as
disrespectful and unjust.

“The decision made by the Senate is a great injustice and shows total
lack of respect for Turkey,” Justice Minister Sadullah Ergin told the
CNN-Turk television in immediate reaction after the French Senate vote.

Turkey maintains the 1915 killings of Armenians during the Ottoman
Empire did not amount to genocide.

“France opened a black page in its history,” said Volkan Bozkir,
the head of the Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee,
in a Twitter message.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to publicise Ankara’s
possible retaliatory measures against Paris during an address to his
fellow deputies in parliament on Tuesday.

French senators on Monday approved the bill that criminalises any
denial of the Armenian genocide, despite vows from a furious Turkey
that it would punish Paris with “permanent” sanctions.

Ankara froze political and military ties with France and had promised
further measures if the bill was passed by the Senate.

The bill must now be signed by President Nicolas Sarkozy — whose
right-wing UMP party put forward the measure — for it to become law.

NAGORNO KARABAKH GETS INTO THE BIRD BUSINESS

EurasiaNet.org

Jan 23 2012
NY

Last week, EurasiaNet.org reported on plans to turn breakaway Nagorno
Karabakh into a correctional facility for Armenian convicts. To
some, mindful of Armenia’s extensive presence in and support for
the predominantly ethnic Armenian territory, that may bring to mind
the colonial-era relationship between Great Britain and Australia,
the British Empire’s convict colony of choice. But the Australia
references do not end there.

Just as was the case with British convicts in Australia, outcasts
from Armenia can also find ostriches in their new homeland. These
are not going to be the squint-eyed Australian emus, but, rather,
their taller African cousins.

Karabakhi entrepreneur Ararat Bagirian imported the birds from Kenya
last August and plans to farm them for eggs, meat and feathers,
the Russian news agency Regnum reported. New businesses in Karabakh
are not a dime a dozen, so, to encourage the venture along, the de
facto government gave Bagirian a 25-million-dram (about $65,000)
credit for his new business.

After all, as the saying goes, a bird in the hand is worth two in the
bush. Nor is this the first example of a South Caucasus fascination
with the birds — both Azerbaijan, which claims Karabakh as its own,
and Armenia have ostrich operations, too. Georgia, meanwhile, is
keeping an eye on the abandoned ostriches of ousted strongman Aslan
Abashidze, but local farmers are skeptical about their economic
potential.

It remains to be seen whether or not this latest feathery scheme can
help alleviate Karabakh’s economic woes, but, so far, the ostriches
have adjusted to the breakaway territory’s climate pretty well,
Bagirian said.