Author: Kanayan Tamar

ALEKSANDER RAHR: “RUSSIA IS ALWAYS READY TO RESOLVE THE KARABAKH CONFLICT, IF IT MEETS ITS GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS”
Orkhan Sattarov

Vestnik Kavkaza
May 15 2012
Russia

The German political analyst, expert of the German Council on Foreign
Policy, Alexander Rahr, told VK about prospects of the Russian policy
in the Caucasus.

– Alexander Glebovich, could you comment on the inauguration of
Vladimir Putin? First of all, on its influence on the Caucasus policy.

Will Russia play more active role in the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict under Putin?

– It is difficult to say. I think, Russia is always ready, if it
meets its geopolitical interests, to begin more intensive settlement.

Everybody asks me, but there is no answer to the question. How
to settle the conflict? It is very difficult. Let’s speak a simple
language. It taking away from Armenia the territory they had occupied
and make them withdraw their troops. Who and how will deal with this?

If it should happen, the decision should be made by America and
almost all members of the EU. Only in this case will pressure on
Armenia be effective.

– Is it realistic?

– I think it is absolutely unrealistic. First of all, the Europeans
have forgotten the conflict. It happened 25 years ago.

Secondly, it is difficult to imagine that the Armenian Diaspora won’t
resist it. On the other hand, it is impossible to persuade Azerbaijan
to recognize the independence of Nagorny Karabakh. Who will pressure
Azerbaijan? Therefore, the discussions are not effective for 25 years.

Everybody says the conflict should be settled peacefully. But I don’t
know what Russia could do in this situation. I think it is beneficial
for Russia to play a certain role in the conflict, as it takes its
own place in the region, as well as the Minsk Group.

– So nobody among geopolitical forces is interested in the conflict’s
outcome?

– These are big geopolitical games. In fact, I have already stated
it that the only country that wants to change the status quo and
unfreeze the conflict is Azerbaijan. No one else wants it. In other
case it will lead to new clashes, and conflicts, and shifts which are
difficult to predict. This is the situation. I think Russia plays
for both teams. It supports Armenia, as Armenia is its long-term
historical ally. Without Russia there would be no Armenian statehood
more than 100 years ago. I think Armenians remember it, and Russia
understands it is the most reliable ally. At the same time, Russia
cannot break relations with Azerbaijan because of Nagorny Karabakh.

Azerbaijan became a new energy titan in the Caspian region, which
tries to construct alternative gas and oil routes by-passing Russia.

It deals with the Western countries directly on its energy policy; it
has brilliant relations with Turkey. Together with Turkey Azerbaijan
becomes even more powerful in the transport corridor of energy
resources. Russia wouldn’t worsen relations with such a country.

Nothing can be made toward Azerbaijan and Armenia through force. That
is why Putin will continue the policy. On the other hand, what new did
Medvedev do while being President? I don’t remember anything. Probably
the tone has changed, but the strategy was aimed at preservation and
security of national interests of Russia. It will continue.

– Do you think there are no plans on settlement of the conflict within
the strategy?

– I can say only in what direction. Suggest me direction of the
conflict settlement.

– Common peaceful living of Azerbaijani and Armenian communities of
Nagorny Karabakh under principles of territorial integrity and peoples’
right for self-identification.

– Either Armenia or Azerbaijan wants to own one territory. How
can the conflict be settled? You can take only one side without a
compromise. The only compromise which had been discussed for the
1990s is an exchange with territories. Armenia gives a part of its
territories to Azerbaijan and takes Nagorny Karabakh. The so-called
plan by Paul Gobble. But I think all sides have rejected the approach.

There is no other variant, however. We can discuss return of refugees
to Nagorny Karabakh, but Armenians are not interested in return of
Nagorny Karabakh Armenians to Armenia after 25 years. Everything can
be discussed theoretically, but the conflict needs real decisions. It
has to be solved! Just like the conflict in Cyprus has to be solved,
it lasts threefold longer than the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But some
conflicts cannot be solved, cannot be unfrozen and settled peacefully.

Because the history of the conflict is difficult. I don’t know
examples when after many years a conflict was unfrozen and settled
peacefully. I don’t know… Maybe exchange by territories, recognition
of a confederation between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorny Karabakh.

These ideas were born in the 1990s, but nobody has turned to them,
they are not interesting for anyone. I think the conflict will be
settled by some other methods in 6 years under Russia’s initiative.

– Another question is about the internal policy of Russia. Could the
current protest movement in Russia become a serious force influencing
political decisions making? What are prospects of them?

– I think Putin and the authorities must not tighten screws.

Putin is not Stalin or Brezhnev. Unlike the Western point of view,
I think that the countries of the post-Soviet area, except for
few Central Asian states, are in search for European lifestyle,
the European democracy model. In Russia and Ukraine the notion of
“sovereign democracy” appeared. It is democracy that is built from
above. However, the process is approaching liberalization, rather than
totalitarianism. If screws are tightened, they will be loosened later.

The power vertical built by Putin in 2003-2004 is being liberalized
at the moment. It is understandable that for some part of Russian
population needs more political freedoms. It concerns the new middle
class, young people who were raised after dissolution of the Soviet
Union. They don’t want to be managed through Soviet methods. Thus,
protests will continue if these people do not feel that social
lifts are working, an alternative party exists, and the government
can be criticized. I believe Putin has to agree for a dialogue. The
parliamentary and presidential elections passed, and the next will
be in 4 and 6 years only. At the moment he has the majority in the
parliament. There is a whale of time to return to real democracy. At
the moment nobody urges to overthrow Putin, there is no alternative.

But dissatisfaction is growing.

NEW CARS TO THE RESCUE SERVICE

Karabakh-open.info
Monday, 14 May 2012 15:10

The NKR Rescue Service has received some presents from the RA Ministry
of Emergency Situations lately; the material and technical resources of
the Rescue Service and the Technical Security Centre were replenished
with new cars equipped with modern devices.

As the Information and Public Relations Department of the NKR Rescue
Service informs, the RA Ministry of Emergency Situations presented an
all-terrain Ural car equipped with all the necessary rescue devices
to the Rescue Service while the Technical Security Centre received
a mobile laboratory designed for technical examinations and other
observations.

OPPOSITION MEMBER BRIEFS OSCE/OIDHR OBSERVATION MISSION ON ELECTION VIOLATIONS

news.am
May 15, 2012 | 19:10

YEREVAN. – Coordinator of the central office of opposition Armenian
National Congress (ANC) bloc Levon Zurabyan met with the head of
OSCE/OIDHR observation mission Radmila ekerinska.

They discussed preparation for the final OSCE/OIDHR final report.

Levon Zurabyan briefed the OSCE official on election violations
registered by ANC bloc during the May 6 parliamentary elections. He
spoke about inaccuracy of the voter lists, reports on voter turnout
and bribery cases adding that the elections were fully rigged.

ANC coordinator and Radmila ekerinska touched upon the work of joint
headquarters set to monitor the elections, as well as issues related to
lawsuit to the Constitutional Court to recognize the elections invalid.

VARTAN OSKANIAN’S THIRD ATTEMPT
HAKOB BADALYAN

Story from Lragir.am News:

Published: 11:37:49 – 15/05/2012

By its effort to bring the PAP to coalition, the Republican Party is
addressing not only internal governmental and home political strategic
issues but also harms Vartan Oskanian, the former foreign minister,
PAP member, second on the party list.

After joining PAP, Vartan Oskanian started criticizing Serzh Sargsyan
and the home and foreign policies of the Republican Party to which
the RPA members even responded with personal offenses.

Now the political situation is as follows: by “bending” the PAP,
the Republicans not only address political issues but also put Vartan
Oskanian in an uncomfortable situation. Although this is just a minor
issue which the RPA is solving by just seizing the convenient occasion.

Actually, Vartan Oskanian’s second attempt for domestic political
progress fails, bringing about a mere situational solution.

Vartan Oskanian’s first attempt was before the parliamentary
elections 2007. Then foreign minister, he made several substantiated
assessments of and speeches on the domestic affairs. But they ended
as spontaneously as they had started, and Vartan Oskanian remained
within the foreign policy. Several years later, on 3 May 2012, Robert
Kocharyan was to state that Oskanian wanted to become a PAP member
later in 2007 but he urged him not to do so.

The reason is known only to Kocharyan and Oskanian, and perhaps also
to Serzh Sargsyan who ensured absolute victory for the RPA on 12 May
2007 while the Prosperous Armenia which had declared 400,000 members
received only 200 thousand votes.

The first attempt for the PAP project failed. Vartan Oskanian benefited
though, who saved his political resource which would be exhausted
immediately after the first loss of the PA.

It is difficult to tell whether Robert Kocharyan did not believe
the PA success so he decided to save Oskanian or Serzh Sargsyan saw
a competitor in Vartan Oskanian for the 2008 presidential elections
so he resisted his decision to join the PA and destroyed PA in the
presidential elections.

The second try was in 2012, and it may be prevented this time too in
case the PA forms a coalition with the RPA.

Will Vartan Oskanian make the third attempt?

The situation is a matter of honor for the former foreign minister.

After the election of 2012, Vartan Oskanian set for himself such a
bar that leaving politics would not be natural and logical.

For his third attempt, Vartan Oskanian will either need to take the
wheel of the party to transform it to a completely different party
or simply leave the PA.

Once Prosperous Armenia forms a coalition, the party will become one
of the task forces of the RPA. In this case, it is a question whether
it makes any sense to fight for a task force which will be managed
by the RPA.

In this case, it would be more useful for Vartan Oskanian to
think about leaving PA since no matter how hard he tries to avoid
responsibility for the sunken ship, he will not be able to avoid the
aftermath of the shipwreck.

” UNE IMPORTANCE SPECIALE DOIT ETRE DONNEE A L’EDUCATION CHRETIENNE ” AFFIRME SA SAINTETE ARAM 1ER
Stephane

armenews.com
mardi 15 mai 2012

Present lors de l’Assemblee Generale du diocèse de Teheran, Sa Saintete
Aram 1er a souligne l’importance particulière de l’education chretienne
comme dimension essentielle de la mission Chretienne. Il a dit :
” L’education chretienne est un secteur important de l’engagement
des missionnaires de l’eglise. L’education des chretiens a toujours
ete une priorite superieure de l’Eglise Armenienne. Je me felicite
des activites grandissantes du diocèse dans la sphère de l’education
chretienne. L’etude de la Bible,les ecoles du dimanche, les cours
populaires sont des manifestations en effet concrètes de l’eglise
pour l’education chretienne “.

Dans son message a l’Assemblee Generale Aram 1er a rappele que ”
l’Eglise armenienne est une eglise populaire. Donc, la participation
active de notre peuple, des hommes et des femmes, des jeunes et des
personnes âgees est essentielle. La discrimination ne doit avoir
aucune place dans la vie de l’eglise. Tous les membres de l’eglise
sont egaux. Ce sens d’appartenance l’un a l’autre dans le Christ doit
supporter la vie et le temoignage de l’eglise “.

Sa Saintete a aussi mentionne la participation de l’Eglise armenienne
dans les activites se rapportant aux droits de l’homme et au genocide.

” Les Droits de l’homme ne sont pas synthetiques, ils sont les cadeaux
de Dieu. Donc, la violation des droits de l’homme est un peche contre
Dieu “. Selon Sa Saintete, l’eglise doit devenir l’avocat des droits
de l’homme comme partie integrante de sa vocation chretienne.

KARABAKH DEFENSE ARMY’S POSITIONS GIVE STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE OVER ADVERSARY – EXPERT

news.am
May 16, 2012 | 14:00

YEREVAN.- The Karabakh Defense Army is occupying positions which give a
strategic advantage over the adversary, said Armenian military expert
David Jamalyan.

Speaking during the Wednesday press conferenc, he said the line of
contact between Karabakh and Azerbaijani armed forces is close to the
strategic targets of the adversary, causing fears of the Azerbaijani
side and restraining from aggression.

“The scenario of counterattack and transferring military operations
to the opponent’s territory is considered during exercise of the
Karabakh Defense Army.

In the north and south of Karabakh, Azerbaijanis will have to overcome
mountains on one side, and Araks River on the other, this complicates
the use of the advantage in numbers. As for the eastern plains of
the contact line, during the period of ceasefire, defensive line was
built enabling to resist opponent’s attack and go into the offensive
by Kura River splitting Azerbaijan into two parts,” he said.

Summing up 18 years since the ceasefire agreement was signed, the
expert noted that the Defense Army of Karabakh during this time
achieved considerable success.

EXPERT FORECASTS AZERI PROVOCATION DURING EUROVISION CONTEST

PanARMENIAN.Net
May 16, 2012 – 13:44 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Any major event Azerbaijan hosts will be aimed at
spreading anti-Armenian propaganda, a military expert said.

As David Jamalyan told a press conference, Azerbaijan will probably try
to destabilize the Armenian-Azerbaijani border during the Eurovision
song contest.

“Azeri hostilities will aim at sparking retaliatory measures by the
Armenian side, thus demonstrating the “barbarism” of the Armenian army.

The expert noted that with these steps Azerbaijan will try to prove
Armenia as “aggressor”, paving the way for possible strike on Nagorno
Karabakh. “Retaliatory measures must be taken in case Azerbaijan opens
fire towards Armenian positions or even at civilians,” Mr. Jamalyan
said.

The expert further noted Armenia’s decision to withdraw from Eurovision
2012 song contest as a correct one.

CO-CHAIRS OF OSCE MG ROUND UP VISIT TO NAGORNO-KARABAKH

Vestnik Kavkaza
May 14 2012
Russia

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has met co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk
Group Igor Popov (Russia), Robert Bradtke (USA) and Jacques Faure
(France) and the special representative of OSCE chairman Andrzej
Kasprzyk, press service of the Azerbaijani president reports.

The sides discussed the state and prospects of settling the
Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

They made a declaration on visiting the region. They noted that
they had visited Yerevan and Baku, met Presidents Serzh Sargsyan and
Ilham Aliyev.

The co-chairs continued discussions of fulfillment of obligations
agreed on at a meeting of Aliyev and Sargsyan in Sochi on January 23.

The OSCE officials expressed concerns over incidents at the line of
contact and urged sides to be tolerant.

The co-chairs discussed development of military and civil contacts,
improvement of trust and realization of the cease-fire agreement
reached in 1994. They emphasized importance of preserving Armenian
and Azerbaijani cultural and historic values.

The OSCE MG co-chairs plan further negotiations of the conflict with
foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

TURKEY HOPEFUL NEW FRENCH PRESIDENT WILL AID ITS EU CAUSE

The Sunday Independent
May 13, 2012
South Africa

ISTANBUL: Turkey is hoping that new French president Francois Hollande
will open a fresh page in relations with Ankara and, unlike his
predecessor, back the Muslim-majority country’s EU bid.

“We are hoping that he (Hollande) would open a new page in the very
deep and fruitful historical relations between Turkey and France,”
Turkish European Affairs Minister Egemen Bagis said.

Ankara would like to see France “become one of the champions of Turkish
integration into the EU”, as it was under president Jacques Chirac,
he said.

That was not the case under the outgoing French leader Nicolas Sarkozy.

Tension between Ankara and Paris also flared this year over a French
law making it a crime to deny the Armenian massacre by Ottoman Turks,
a point of World War I history that Turkey disputes.

The law was eventually overturned by the French Constitutional Court.

“Sarkozy probably had different priorities. Sarkozy was a smart
politician, saw an opportunity of a vote to the extreme right and he
went after that,” Bagis said.

It worked in 2007, he added, “but I think it did not work in the
second election”.

Hollande, after winning the run-off vote on May 6, will take over as
president on Tuesday.

The Socialist leader has shown himself to be more open to Turkey’s
EU ambitions.

Bagis spoke of mending fences with Paris in a friendly spirit of
finding solutions.

“We are not in the business of creating animosity, we are in the
business of creating friendship, where diplomacy and politics are
part of finding solutions, not creating problems,” he said.

For his part, Hollande has noted that Turkey would not become an
EU member during his five-year term – the road to EU accession is a
long one.

Turkey and the EU began formal accession negotiations in 2005, but
since then Brussels has opened with Ankara only 13 of the 35 policy
chapters that every state must negotiate to join the bloc.

Just one chapter has been successfully closed.

Besides opposition from France, along with Austria and Germany,
the talks have stalled over problems relating to the ethnic Greek
government of EU member Cyprus, a Mediterranean island divided between
Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Only Ankara recognises the Turkish Cypriot
statelet in the north.

Turkey has threatened to freeze diplomatic relations with the EU when
Cyprus takes on the rotating EU presidency for six months in July if
there is no reunification deal.

Yet Ankara continues to pursue European integration even as the bloc
is mired in an economic crisis. In contrast, Turkey’s economy expanded
by 8.5 percent last year.

But, Bagis said, for Turkey the EU was not an economic project,
but a major avenue for peace.

“Turkey can turn the grandest peace project of the history of mankind,
which is the EU, from being a continental project to a global project.”

Bagis sees Turkey as a democratic inspiration in the Arab world and
believes Europe could have a greater influence there with Ankara at
its side. – Sapa-AFP

REPUBLICAN PARTY WINS MAJORITY OF SEATS IN ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT

ITAR-TASS
May 13, 2012 Sunday 08:33 PM GMT+4
Russia

The Republican Party led by President Serzh Sargsyan won the majority
of seats in the Armenian parliament on May 6, the Central Elections
Commission said in a final report posted on Sunday.

The conservatives will hold 69 out of 131 parliament seats, among them
40 won in the proportionate ballot and 29 in majority single-mandate
districts.

The right-centrist Prosperous Armenia led by businessman Gagik
Tsarukian ranks second with 37 parliament seats (28 in the
proportionate ballot and nine in majority single-mandate districts).

The radical opposition block, Armenian National Congress, of
Armenia’s first president Levon Ter-Petrossian (1998-2008) gained
seven parliament seats, all of them in the proportionate ballot.

The Land of Law led by Armenian National Security Council Secretary
Artur Bagdasarian will have six parliament seats, including five gained
in the proportionate ballot and one in a single-mandate district.

The nationalist party Dashnaktsutyun will have the same ranking.

The opposition party Heritage led by first foreign minister of
independent Armenia, former U.S. citizen Raffi Ovanesian, will have
five parliament seats.

One independent candidate won in a single-mandate electoral district.

The Communist Party, the Democratic Party and United Armenians failed
to pass the 5% election threshold and will have no parliament seats.

More than 600 international and 30,000 domestic observers watched
the ballot. Foreign monitors said the election was normal and well
governed, while the opposition reported a number of violations.