Author: Kalantarian Kevo

ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO PROVE GUILT OF GULEN-LINKED PLOT: MAHCUPYAN

Daily Sabah, Turkey
Dec 19 2014

Daily Saba

ISTANBUL — The December 14 investigation, known as the ‘TahÃ…~_iye’
case, is not about the freedom of the press, but is instead about
the plotting activities undertaken by some Gulen-linked figures,
according to Etyen Mahcupyan, Turkish writer and Senior Advisor to
the Prime Minister of Turkey.

Mahcupyan made the comment during a television program on Thursday
evening.

On December 14, certain warrants were issued for some Gulenist
suspects under the allegations of fabricating fake evidence for
TaÃ…~_hiye group’s leader Memet Dogan.

According to Etyen Mahcupyan, there is enough evidence to prove that
Gulen-linked prosecutors and police plotted a scheme to portray the
TahÃ…~_iye group is a terrorist group, and unjustly imprisoned the
group’s leader Mehmet Dogan.

“If you put the gathered evidence chronologically, there is a chain
which reveals how the Gulen Movement operates in such instances,”
Mahcupyan said at the program.

The Gulen Movement has lost its “legitimacy”, according to Mahcupyan.

“No matter how powerful you are, how many people you influence,
if you have lost your legitimacy, you cannot get a result,” he said
during the program.

There are certain circles in the West and in Turkey that react to the
December 14 operation, whereas “the silent majority” has an approach
to the case that is “imponderable,” Mahcupyan said. But he thinks
that the government is following in the steps of victory, when one
looks at the whole picture.

According to Mahcupyan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is
the most realistic political leader in Turkey, and believes that the
AK Party will get 48-50 percent of the votes in the upcoming 18th
general election due to be held on 13 June 2015.

Etyen Mahcupyan, born in 1950, is a journalist and writer. From 2007
to 2010 he was the editor-in-chief of Agos, the Armenian community’s
weekly newspaper. He also contributes to Turkish dailies, Taraf
and Zaman.

On October 2014, was appointed as the Senior Advisor to Ahmet
Davutoglu, Prime Minister of Turkey.

Armenian Assembly of America News
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The Assembly Agenda: This week in Washington, D.C. – December 18, 2014

By Taniel Koushakjian (@Taniel_Shant)
AAANews Blog
December 18, 2014

Welcome to the last Assembly Agenda of 2014! Below is a full recap of what
went down on Capitol Hill when the 113th Congress came to a close this
week. While I explain the `Cromnibus,’ new ambassadors head to Armenia and
Azerbaijan, retiring Congressman Moran looks to line his pockets with Azeri
petro-dollars, and Jeb Bush leans in, here’s the Assembly Agenda: your
go-to source for Armenian American issues in Washington, DC.

HOUSE: Last Friday, the House of Representatives adjourned for the year
after passing a $1.1 trillion budget bill known as the `CRomnibus,’ for
Fiscal Year (FY) 2015. Part continuing resolution, or `CR,’ and part
`omnibus,’ the legislation establishes new funding levels for the entire
federal government through September 30, 2015, except for the Department of
Homeland Security (DHS). The DHS will be funded at FY14 levels through
March 30, 2015, which will allow the incoming Republican Congress a chance
to debate and potentially make changes to the department that are critical
to enforcing President Obama’s post-election executive order on
immigration, which was what caused the delays in the lame-duck budget
process in the first place. In 2014 the House passed 11 out of 12
appropriations bills, nearly completing the process, whereas the Senate
passed none. These 11 funding bills are the `omnibus’ portion of the
massive spending bill, while the `CR’ part refers to the continuation of
FY14 funding for DHS, hence the term `CRomnibus.’

While specific funding levels were not delineated for Armenia, Karabakh,
and Azerbaijan in the cromnibus, the bill provides approximately $49
billion for State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs (SFOPS) for
FY15 overall, and $1.9 billion less than the President’s request. US aid to
Armenia in the cromnibus will follow President Obama’s request for
a total
of $24.7 million in FY15. The President’s request maintains military aid
parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Also, the cromnibus includes
language adopted by the Senate on Nagorno Karabakh and maintained Section
907 of the Freedom Support Act. For a break down of the numbers, see here:

– WHAT ABOUT PRO-ARMENIAN LEGISLATION? In the 113th Congress, two
pro-Armenian measures were introduced in the U.S. House of
Representatives: H.R.
4347, the Turkey Christian Churches Accountability Act, and H. Res. 227,
the Armenian Genocide Truth & Justice Resolution.

Under Chairman Ed Royce (R-CA), H.R. 4347 passed the House Foreign
Affairs Committee (HFAC) on June 26, 2014 However,
the Churches Bill was not scheduled for a vote on the House floor before
adjourning for the year.

The Armenian Genocide Truth & Justice Resolution, H. Res. 227, was not
brought up in committee. Given the divergence of this bill from previous
Armenian Genocide bills, and the problems Chairman Royce and HFAC Ranking
Member Elliot Engel (D-NY) encountered when passing the Churches Bill, H.
Res. 227 languished, garnering fewer cosponsors than resolutions adopted by
HFAC in past Congresses.

SENATE: Like the House, the Senate finally passed the cromnibus bill and
sent it to President Obama late Saturday night. Outgoing Senate Majority
Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) had hoped to finish his chambers work shortly
after the House wrapped up, however, a last-ditch effort by Senator Ted
Cruz (R-TX) in opposition to the spending measure forced the Senate to
continue working through the weekend. Cruz’s actions did two things: First,
it opened up floor time for Reid to begin moving Obama’s pending
appointments earlier than originally planned; Second, it caused Senators to
scrap their weekend plans and return to the Capitol to vote on the
cromnibus. Senator Kelly Ayote (R-NH) was already at the airport when she
got the call to come back, missing her daughter’s ballet performance, while
incoming Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-TN)
had to cancel his planned trip to Iraq, Turkey, and Pakistan. Eventually,
Cruz’s point of order would be defeated and the Senate ultimately passed
the cromnibus spending package and sent it to the President for his
signature.

– I’M LEAVING ON A JET PLANE: Following the budget vote in the Senate,
Reid set up confirmation votes on a slew of President Obama’s nominees on
Monday and Tuesday. Several vacancies were filled, including ambassador
posts in Yerevan and Baku. As expected, the Senate easily confirmed Richard
M. Mills, Jr. and Robert F. Cekuta, as the next US ambassador to Armenia
and Azerbaijan, respectively. For some background on Mills see here
and for more on Cekuta see here

– PENDING LEGISLATION: On April 10th, the SFRC passed S. Res. 410, the
Armenian Genocide resolution Introduced by Chairman
Menendez, it had 10 cosponsors, but didn’t make it to the Senate floor.
Outgoing Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), a long time advocate of
Armenian American issues, was a cosponsor of S. Res. 410. However, he did
not bring the resolution up for a vote. The Senate operates under different
rules than the House, making it much more difficult to pass an Armenian
Genocide resolution. A single Senator can place a hold on the measure,
effectively blocking its passage.

This year’s committee passage was historic as an Armenian Genocide
resolution had not passed a Senate committee in almost 25 years. That bill,
in 1990, was brought to the floor under the leadership of then-Senate
Majority Leader Robert Dole (R-KS), but failed two cloture votes after
being filibustered by Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV).

TURKISH, AZERBAIJANI, GEORGIAN FOREIGN MINISTERS MEET: Also this week,
the foreign ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia met in the Turkish
city of Kars. The tri-lateral meeting is the fourth such meeting since the
three began regular negotiations in this format in 2012
The meeting is timely, given Russia’s decision the
week prior to scrap the planed South Stream pipeline for an alternate
pipeline that would deliver Russian natural gas to Europe via Turkey

MORAN TO LOBBY FOR AZERBAIJAN: Not even out of office, retiring Rep. Jim
Moran (D-VA) has informed the House Ethics Committee that he is pursuing
new employment for his post-Congress life. According to a report from the
Sunlight Foundation, Moran has entered into negotiations to work for the
Assembly of Friends of Azerbaijan (AFAZ). “This is true that retiring
Congressman Jim Moran and Assembly of the Friends of Azerbaijan entered the
negotiations for employment,” Kemal Oksuz, president of AFAZ said. “He will
provide consulting and advising services to AFAZ in its activities in the
United States.”

WHAT WILL THE NEXT CONGRESS LOOK LIKE?: The last outstanding races of the
2014 midterm elections have finally been called. In Louisiana, incumbent
Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) lost reelection to Congressman Bill Cassidy
(R-LA). Cassidy was a member of the Azerbaijan Caucus during his time in
the House, giving them another friend in the Senate. Two open seat
Congressional races in the Bayou State also went to Republicans.

In Arizona, Republican Martha McSally defeated Democratic incumbent Ron
Barber in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional district. The seat was formerly held
by Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), who voted YES on the Armenian Genocide
resolution in the HFAC in 2007. Barber, a former staffer of Giffords’,
succeeded her after she resigned following the attack on her life in 2011.
Unknown to most Armenian Americans, Turkish PACs had been targeting this
seat since the 2008 election cycle, funneling thousands of dollars to
Giffords’ opponent.

With the final races called, the House will now have a Republican majority
of 247-188 Democrat, the largest House majority for Republicans since the
Hoover Administration.

The Senate will also now hold a Republican Majority of 54 seats, while
Democrats will hold 46 (2 Independents caucus with Democrats). It is
unclear if the incoming Senate Republicans will overturn the `nuclear
option,’ a rule change made by Reid in the 113th Congress to expedite
presidential nominees by lowering the confirmation threshold of 60 votes to
a simple majority of 51.

Also, Rep. Ed Royce will continue to chair HFAC, while Senator Corker takes
the gavel of the SFRC from Senator Menendez.

THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN BEGINS:

– BUSH 45?: No, I’m not talking about beer. I’m talking about the
possibility of a third President Bush. On Tuesday, former Governor of
Florida Jeb Bush (1999-2007) announced that he is `actively exploring the
possibility of running’ for President of the United States in 2016.
Essentially what this means is that he has formed a political action
committee (PAC) to begin fundraising. While this sounds like big news, it
really only brings him up to speed with other potential Republican
candidates like Senators Rand Paul (R-KY), Marco Rubio (R-FL), and Ted
Cruz (R-TX) who already have their own leadership PACs.

For Armenian Americans, it’s important to note that in 2006 Governor Jeb
Bush issued a proclamation recognizing the Armenian Genocide

– Days until the Iowa caucuses: 396; Days until the 2016 election: 691

UPCOMING ARMENIAN ASSEMBLY EVENTS:

– LOS ANGELES, CA: The Armenian Assembly’s California office is hosting a
Summer Intern Alumni Happy Hour tonight at The Griffin in Los Angeles from
6:00 – 9:00 PM. For more info check out the event page on Facebook
here

– BOCA RATON, FL: The Armenian Assembly South Florida Regional Council
will host a 2015 Kick Off Reception at the Waterstone Resort in Boca Raton
on Saturday, January 3, 2015 from 8:00 – 10:00 PM. You can download the
invitation here

– LOS ANGELES, CA: On Saturday, January 17, the Assembly’s Southern
California Regional Council will host its annual New Year Gathering at the
home of Mr. & Mrs. Krikor and Marlene Yerevanian in Tarzana from 6:00 =80`
9:00 PM. Click here to download the flyer

ARMENIAN CONGRESSIONAL TRIVIA: Congratulations to Hagop Koushakjian and
Peter Melkonian who both correctly answered that Edward Djerejian is
another prominent Armenian American currently working at a university in
Texas. Hagop gets bonus points for answering that Djerejian is the founder
and director of the James Baker Institute of Public Policy at Rice
University in Houston. As I hinted, Djerejian served as US Ambassador to
Syria under President Ronald Reagan, and as US Ambassador to Israel under
President Bill Clinton. For more on Djerejian and his role at Rice, see
here:

Thanks for reading Peter, and glad to know my dad is keeping up with my
columns, too!

Peter has this week’s question: Name an Armenian American politician from
Long Island, New York. Hint: this person served as supervisor of one of the
island’s cities. Bonus points if you can name the city and extra points for
naming the company this person founded.

Send tips, suggestions, comments, complaints and corrections to
[email protected]. If you don’t already, please follow me on Twitter
@Taniel_Shant, and follow the Armenian Assembly of America @ARAMAC_DC and
@ARAMAC_CA.

GET THE ASSEMBLY AGENDA emailed to your Blackberry, iPhone, or other
mobile device instantly. Just enter your email address here

Available online at:

SELON EXPRESS.CO.UK, BORUSSIA DORTMUND LAISSERA PARTIR HENRIKH MKHITARYAN SI STEPHAN EL SHAARAWY ARRIVE

FOOTBALL

Les clubs anglais d’Arsenal et Liverpool s’interesseraient toujours
au transfert de l’international armenien du Borussia Dortmund, Henrikh
Mkhitaryan (25 ans) selon le site britannique Express.co.uk. Selon ce
dernier, le Borussia Dortmund laissera partir Henrikh Mkhitaryan s’il
parvient a acquerir l’attaquent de l’AC Milan, Stephan El Shaarawy
(22 ans). Mais ce dernier n’aurait pour l’heure pas donne son accord
de transfert. A l’heure où le depart de Jurgen Klopp l’entraineur de
Dortmund -et meilleur defenseur de Mkhitaryan- est a l’ordre du jour,
l’avenir de l’international armenien au club allemand s’assombrit.

Krikor Amirzayan

vendredi 19 decembre 2014, Krikor Amirzayan (c)armenews.com

L’UNION EUROPEENNE ANNONCE UNE NOUVELLE AIDE DESTINE A L’ARMENIE

ARMENIE

L’Union europeenne a tenu ses engagements. Après un moment de colère
legitime provoque par le brusque revirement du president armenien Serge
Sarkissian, qui renoncait en septembre 2013 au processus pourtant bien
engage d’un accord d’association et de libre echange avec l’Europe
auy profit d’un ralliement a l’Union eurasienne de V.

Poutine, Bruxelles n’a pas voulu sanctionner l’Armenie, et s’est
employe a approfondir la relation avec ce pays dans le cadre du
Programme de partenariat oriental. L’UE l’a montre en annoncant le
jeudi 18 decembre l’octroi d’une enveloppe de quelque 10 millions
d’euros d’aides destinees au gouvernement armenien ainsi qu’aux
collectivites locales et a des groupes civiques. Cette nouvelle aide
intervient alors que la Douma de Russie vient d’approuver l’entree
de l’Armenie dans l’Union eurasienne constituee de la Russie, de
la Bielorussie et du Kazakhstan, qui venait d’etre ratifiee par les
organes legislatifs d’Armenie.

Pourtant, l’acte d’adhesion demande encore l’aval de la Bielorussie et
du Kazakhstan, qui expriment encore quelques reticences susceptibles de
retarder l’entree effective de l’Armenie prevue dès janvier 2015 dans
cette Union qui est par ailleurs agitee par des differends bilateraux
entres les trois Etats fondateurs, sur fond de crise economique
grave en Russie provoquee par les sanctions occidentales et la chute
des cours du petrole, crise dont les effets se font sentir aussi a
Erevan. C’est dans ce contexte tendu, aggrave par ailleurs par les
rapports alarmants sur les attaques visant les opposants politiques
en Armenie que la delegation de l’UE a Erevan a annonce son intention
de financer 15 projets concrets, allant de la defense des droits de
l’homme a la lutte contre la pauvrete en passant par le developpement
de l’agriculture.

“L’UE reitère son engagement a approfondir sa relation avec l’Armenie
et a renforcer sa cooperation bilaterale dans differents domaines
d’interets sur la base de valeurs communes”, a indique le chef de la
delegation europeenne, Traian Hristea, après avoir signe les documents
avec les beneficiaires gouvernementaux et non-gouvernementaux de cette
aide. “La plupart des projets portent sur l’aide au respect des droits
de l’homme a travers des organisations internationales et issues de la
societe civile”, a precise la delegation dans une declaration separee.

“Au cours des deux a trois prochaines annees, ils encourageront le
dialogue avec la societe civile, renforceront la liberte d’expression,
l’Etat de droit, promouvront la parite entre les sexes, tout en luttant
contre la pratique des avortements selectifs fondes sur le critère du
sexe en Armenie. Ils contribueront aussi a l’integration des refugies
syriens dans ce pays et viseront a ameliorer les conditions de vie
des orphelins”.

Par ailleurs, les fonds debloques par l’UE serviront a financer
des projets visant a moderniser les infrastructures dans les zones
rurales ainsi que des reformes agricoles engagees par le gouvernement
armenien. “Ils contribueront a ameliorer la situation sociale et
economique dans les localites du Shirak, a developper le tourisme,
a proteger et encourager l’apiculture ecologique dans le Vayots Dzor,
ainsi qu’a ameliorre les services publics a Jujevan, Baghanis and
Voskevan. Un autre de ces projets fournira l’accès a des sources
d’energie renouvelables dans les municipalites de Vayk et de Spitak”,
ajoute la declaration de la delegation europeenne.

L’UE a deja annonce en novembre qu’elle debloquerait une enveloppe de
quelque 170 millions d’euros au cours des prochaines annees en vue de
soutenir le secteur prive en Armenie et d’aider a la mise en oeuvre
des reformes engagees par le gouvernement armenien dans la justice
et d’autres administrations publiques. Son commissaire a la Politique
europeenne de voisinage et d’elargissement Johannes Hahn avait designe
cet engagement comme une illustration supplementaire de la volonte
de l’Europe des 28 de perseverer sur la voie d’une “cooperation très
etroite” avec l’Armenie. “L’Union europeenne est un partenaire cle de
l’Armenie”, avait declare T.Hristea a Erevan, en soulignant le fait
que l’UE reste le premier partenaire commercial de l’Armenie et la
principale source d’investissements etrangers dans le pays.

vendredi 19 decembre 2014, Gari (c)armenews.com

ARMENIA IS NOT HEAVILY RELIANT ON RUSSIAN MARKET – SAYS ECONOMIST (VIDEO)

14:40 | December 19,2014 | Economy

In the given situation when the demand for the US dollar is growing,
we should try to increase the demand for the Armenian dram to restore
the equilibrium. In order to do it, we should take part of the dollar
out of circulation, says Economist Mikael Melkumyan.

“Instead, we witnessed that the dollar was turned into a product which
was purchased and stored by people. As a result, the dollar became so
scare in the market that banks, exporters and people had to keep it
which was quite natural,” said the lawmaker of the Prosperous Armenia
Party (BHK).

Mr. Melkumyan says the officials responsible for the fluctuations
failed to take measures to save the situation.

The MP does not agree with the opinion that Armenia is heavily
dependent on the Russian market and says 43 percent of our exports
depend on European markets.

LA CROISSANCE DE L’ECONOMIE DE L’ARMENIE EN 2014 SERA DE 2,5% SEULEMENT SELON UN EXPERT

ARMENIE

L’Armenie aura une croissance economique que de 2,5% en 2014 selon
l’ex-chef de la banque centrale Bagrat Asatryan. Ceci peut etre
facilement considere comme un niveau zero, a-t-il dit.

Au cours des huit mois de cette annee, la croissance economique a
ete de 4,1%, a-t-il dit. Dans le meme temps, l’industrie a augmente
de 0,9%, les importations de 3%, l’agriculture de 4,9%, le volume du
commerce de 5,3% et le secteur des services de 6,2%.

Le taux de croissance de l’agriculture est trompeur car il comprend
des “arbres qui ont fleuri mais n’ont pas donne de cultures”.

La croissance dans le secteur du commerce est venu de la legalisation
de certains secteur de

L’ACADEMIE NATIONALE DES CONSOMMATEURS A ENVOYE DES PROPOSITIONS AU GOUVERNEMENT CONCERNANT LA VENTE DE SALADES DANS LES SUPERMARCHES ARMENIENS

ARMENIE

L’Academie nationale des consommateurs a envoye au gouvernement un
certain nombre de propositions concernant la vente de salades dans
les supermarches armeniens a annonce le president de l’academie,
Melita Hakobyan, lors d’une conference de presse.

Elle a dit qu’aucun supermarche ne specifie la date d’expiration
des salades et de leurs ingredients. De plus, malgre le fait que les
salades peuvent etre stockes dans les refrigerateurs pour 24 heures
seulement, presque tous les supermarches melangent les salades fraîches
et celles d’hier et les vendent aux clients.

Elle a dit que l’Academie nationale des consommateurs va egalement
verifier la qualite de la nourriture dans les cantines scolaires et
demander aux ecoles de reduire la quantite de “fast food”.

Selon elle, les etudes montrent que la qualite de nombreux aliments
semi-prepares localement est assez bonne mais malgre cela les ecoles
tendent a les remplacer par des aliments plus abordables mais importes
sans certificat.

“La seule facon de lutter contre ce phenomène est de ne pas acheter
des produits qui ne repondent pas aux exigences fixees par le
gouvernement,” dit-elle.

jeudi 18 decembre 2014, Stephane (c)armenews.com

HEAD OF ARMENIAN BUSINESS UNION COMMENDS GOVERNMENT FOR ITS SUPPORT TO ENTREPRENEURSHIP

YEREVAN, December 18. / ARKA /. Head of an Armenian business union
has commended today the government for its support to entrepreneurship.

Arsen Ghazaryan, head of the Union of Industrialists and Businessmen of
Armenia, told a news conference that a government-designed strategy to
support the development of industry and protect domestic manufacturers
is being consistently materialized.

He said Armenian entrepreneurs are satisfied with this approach,
adding that the outcome will become evident in time.

He then praised the government and the central bank for their
response to dramatic drop in the national currency’s value. He said
the statements by Central bank governor and prime minister have
been instrumental in stabilizing to some extent the tension in the
financial market with the national currency regaining step by step
its lost position.

Speaking at a news conference on December 17 Javadyan said the exchange
rates of hard currencies were overvalued in Armenia adding that they
would drop. He blamed the dramatic drop in the exchange of dram on
speculative currency trading and panic in the financial market.

In a yesterday statement prime minister Hovik Abrahamyan said the
government is not going to give up the floating exchange rate of the
dram ‘that helps protect the economy from the long-term instability.-0-

FIN DE LA SAISON POLITIQUE ? : L’OPPOSITION ARMENIENNE SE REGROUPE APRÈS UN AUTOMNE POLITIQUE >

ARMENIE

L’opposition avait promis un automne politique chaud, mais ce qui
est arrive au cours de la saison, avec deux grands rassemblements
conjoints des trois partis d’opposition, selon les observateurs,
n’a pas abouti a des changements importants, au moins pour ce qui
est visible pour le public au sens large.

Les partis Рle Congr̬s national armenien (ANC), Armenie prosp̬re
(PAP) et Heritage, connu sous le nom de la troïka – semblaient avoir
d’abord un programme commun, mais recemment, quelques differences sont
apparues entre les partis. Pourtant, les representants de la Troïka
affirme que > est dans son cours normal.

Le leader du parti Heritage Raffi Hovannisian a tenu une assemblee
dite civique Square de la liberte a Erevan vendredi après quoi il
s’est rendu a Vanadzor et Gyumri le lendemain pour des rassemblements
similaires. Parlant aux journalistes il a de nouveau appele a un
programme commun.

Contrairement aux trois autres membres de la troïka, le parti Heritage
a initialement declare qu’il etait contre l’adhesion de l’Armenie a
l’Union economique eurasienne (UEE) et pendant les assemblees civiques
cette question a ete eleve a l’ordre du jour des conferenciers qui
ont condamne ceux qui ont vote au Parlement armenien pour rejoindre
le groupement economique dirige par la Russie.

Lors d’une conference de presse le chef adjoint du parti Heritage
Armen Martirosyan a dit que malgre cela, le parti ne va pas quitter
la Troïka.

> a ajoute Martirosyan.

Pendant ce temps, le chef du PAP Gagik Tsarukyan a visite lundi la
deuxième ville d’Armenie Gyumri où il a donne 45 millions de drams
(environ 100 000 $ ) pour les citoyens qui vivent dans des conditions
sociales difficiles.

Gagik Tsarukyan egalement visite le siège du mouvement populaire a
Gyumri. Il a ecoute les gens et a promis de l’aide.

Gagik Tsarukyan, qui est proche du Premier ministre Hovik Abrahamian, a
dit qu’il n’a pas entendu ce dernier declarer le 4 Decembre dernier aux
journalistes >.

a-t-il souligne.

Selon le chef du Centre armenien des etudes nationales et
internationales Manvel Sargsyan, l’activite de l’automne dans le
camp de l’opposition semble avoir disparu, tandis que les questions
soulevees par l’opposition n’ont pas encore obtenu de reponses.

>, a declare l’analyste.

GOHAR ABRAHAMYAN

ArmeniaNow

jeudi 18 decembre 2014, Stephane (c)armenews.com

EXPERT FORECASTS AMD APPRECIATION

16:29 * 18.12.14

In an interview with Tert.am, economist and founder of the Ajlentrank
(Alternative) research center Tatul Manaseryan said that he was the
only independent expert to forecast quick stabilization of the USD/AMD
exchange rate.

According to him, economic risks remains, and recovery requires team
work in terms of supervision and regulation.

Mr Manaseryan calls for civil activity and for holding Armenia’s
authorities responsible and consider the economic entities that have
taken advantage of the situation “at the expense of our pockets.”

Mr Manaseryan, this morning some RUB appreciation against the AMD
could be seen in Armenia’s banks. The USD and Euro showed depreciation
as well: the minimum selling price of the US dollar was AMD 550,
whereas last morning exchange offices did not sell US dollars even
at an exchange rate of $1/AMD 620. What can you say? Can we have
optimistic expectations?

We can speak of it every day, and some people treated my forecasts
with irony. As an independent think tank, we were the first to
forecast quick stabilization. And, fortunately, our forecast is
becoming a reality. We had grounds for the forecasts. Some apologies
for economists tried to speak of others’ behalf yesterday and claim
no one knew what was going on. We know well – and one does not have
to be an economist to understand the situation. Abuse has taken place.

Armenia’s economy does not have prerequisites for such deterioration.

So we designated it USD appreciation rather than AMD depreciation,
with ensuing consequences. Large-scale speculations have taken place,
and, with Armenia being a small economy, even ordinary consumers
could see was happened. Individual banks created deficit and stopped
buying USD, which played into the hand of those taking advantage of
the situation. Fortunately, supervision was exercised.

And what about the injections you speak of? Are they aimed at simply
earning money or are there any political objectives?

It is, first of all, for earning money, and these are not only the
foreign powers but those that have accumulated money. They needed
to profit by the occasion to realize that at the expense of the
Armenian market. But there is also a geopolitical factor. So we are
in a vulnerable situation and are obliged to have countermeasures and
counterbalancing steps to protect ourselves from different possible
scenarios. And we do have an elaborated package.

Similar trends are also observed in Russia and Georgia where [the
national currency] Lari began stabilizing much earlier. So was this a
coordinated response, and were any solutions found in those countries?

“Yes, there are many differences between economies, and it is notable
that while in the case of the military partnership with Armenia,
it is expressed with the Rouble and the Russian market, the Georgian
economy, which is more Dollar- and Euro-oriented, received the signals
directly from there in both positive and negative terms. But Armenia
will keep facing risks.

Do you point to any timeframes for stabilization or do you refrain
from it?

It is very important for us to maintain the Armenian national currency
and strengthen belief and trust in the Dram. Each of us has less
in terms of both personal savings and the price surge, but there is
one thing we must realize clearly: that all this has to do with our
national values. So in case we decide to give preference to the Dollar,
Euro and other currencies, we’ll doom ourselves [to failures].

So is it possible to say that you are making a call for a civic stand?

Yes, and I do it very clearly. Why don’t those who do not really need
to transactions avoid buying Euros? If every country gives preference
to their values, why don’t we try to protect our national value?