TOP QUESTION: WHO’S GOING TO CHALLENGE THE INCUMBENT IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE?
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow
Analysis | 24.09.12 | 12:47
The start of nominations in the February 2013 presidential election
will begin in Armenia in about a month, but the possible candidates
are still mostly vague on their plans, maintaining the intrigue
till the last moment. This is true for both the government and the
opposition, which leads some analysts to conclude that in next year’s
presidential campaign incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan may remain
without serious competition.
One of the likely candidates, head of the opposition Hanrapetutyun
(Republic) party Aram Sargsyan (the brother of Prime Minister Vazgen
Sargsyan who was assassinated in the attack on the National Assembly
in 1999) believes that “while in the past the factor of foreign
policy influence on domestic policies in Armenia was insignificant,
then it will be pretty huge during the upcoming presidential race.”
In an interview with RFE/RL’s Armenian Service Sargsyan said that
it is time Armenia conducted a “balanced policy” towards Russia,
ending its “vassal relations” with it.
Another likely candidate, leader of the opposition Heritage party
Raffi Hovannisian also announced on September 20 that Armenia should
have “horizontal” and “really strategic” relations with Russia,
diversifying its foreign-policy relations with “a reformed Iran”,
the Middle East, NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization,
China and India. Hovannisian, who announced his resignation as MP
earlier this month apparently to participate in the presidential race,
still did not exclude that he may withdraw his candidacy in favor of
another candidate.
The positions of both Aram Sargsyan and Hovannisian are largely
consonant with the political course followed by President Sargsyan,
who has announced his strong intention to achieve Armenia’s integration
with the European Union, but with the current allied relations with
Russia maintained.
Such similarity of views leads some to conclude that Aram Sargsyan and
Raffi Hovannisian may even choose not to run for president themselves,
but will instead back Serzh Sargsyan’s reelection bid.
Earlier this year, immediately after quitting the Armenian National
Congress, Aram Sargsyan said that only pro-Russian forces remain in
the opposition alliance led by ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosyan.
However, Ter-Petrosyan is not yet announcing his intention to
participate in the presidential race, nor is he yet speaking about
his foreign-policy orientation. In a speech to supporters in central
Yerevan on Independence Day, September 21, Ter-Petrosyan only said
that in order to become a strong state “Armenia needs to normalize its
relations with Turkey, resolve the Karabakh conflict, get the blockade
lifted, as well as uproot corruption and establish rule of law.” At
the same time, he said that one shouldn’t blame the authorities for
the fact that the first three problems remain unresolved.
“But eliminating corruption and establishing the rule of law does
depend on our government. Political will is needed to solve these
problems,” the opposition leader emphasized.
In fact, Ter-Petrosyan is trying to shift the focus of the election
campaign to domestic issues. Otherwise, he would either have to say
that he supports the European integration course of Sargsyan or admit
that he is in favor of closer integration with Russia.
However, Sargsyan is convinced that an attempt is being made to turn
the forthcoming elections into a “power against power” conflict. The
matter concerns the ruling Republican Party of Armenia and the
Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), which, by their style of work,
according to Aram Sargsyan, do not differ from each other.
However, the PAP has not yet expressed its intentions and orientation,
preferring to criticize the prime minister and the government,
without touching President Sargsyan. The party does not conceal its
ambitions to have its man as prime minister. And second president of
Armenia Robert Kocharyan also adds to the uncertain situation as he
neither declares his intention to run for another term as president
nor makes any statement that would indicate the opposite. He says he
will return to politics if the people feel it is a necessity.
In fact, if the above-mentioned candidates make no bid, Serzh Sargsyan
indeed may be left without any serious rivals and in that case will
easily win reelection.