Author: Kajoyan Gevork

Cihan News Agency (CNA) – Turkey
January 13, 2013 Sunday

Feeling ridiculed, Hrant’s Friends dissect murder, trial process of Dink

ISTANBUL (CIHAN)- Having a great sense of being ridiculed by the
Turkish system, which they said not only punished but even protected
the real perpetrators of the 2007 murder of Hrant Dink, late
editor-in-chief of the Turkish-Armenian weekly Agos, Hrant’s Friends
have recalled and retold the process that led to the assassination of
Dink and the failure to bring the real criminals to light.

“We feel like we are being made fun of. Both the government and
judiciary ridiculed us during the course of the 24 hearings,” said
Garo Paylan, a long-time leader in Armenian institutions in Turkey. He
was speaking at a panel called “Six years of Show trial: Hrant Dink
murder case” organized by Hrant’s Friends who say “We are Here
Ahparig! (“ahparig” means “my brother” in Armenian) as part of a
week-long memorial of events on Jan. 12, telling people from all walks
of life who consider themselves “Hrant’s Friends” that they were
indeed naively waiting for five years for justice to be granted.

When the Istanbul 14th High Criminal Court issued its final verdict on
Jan. 17 last year in the 25th hearing of the case acquitting all
suspects of organized crime charges, the public’s sense of justice was
greatly impaired. The court handed down a sentence of life
imprisonment for Yasin Hayal, the instigator. Erhan Tuncel, another
individual accused of being a troublemaker, who worked for the Trabzon
Police Department as an informant, was released. Gunman Ogün Samast
was sentenced to nearly 23 years in prison by a separate juvenile
court.

Journalist Banu Güven reminded the public that many institutions and
individuals played a role in the cover up of Dink’s murder. For
example, when Tuncel was captured, some high level police officials
called news stations and told them not to mention Tuncel’s name in
their stories because he was one of the “good guys.”

Fethiye Çetin, Dink family’s lawyer handling the case, said in the
panel titled “Operation starts: Before January 19”, that Dink was
subjected to a campaign of serious of attacks by the state and media.
“There were several news items indicating that [Christian] missionary
activities were a domestic threat to Turkey. In addition the National
Security Council (MGK) established a commission against claims of
genocide. In Parliament, political party members were talking about
missionary threats, and Rahsan Ecevit was the leader of all,” she said
in reference to the opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP)
lawmaker.

She also stated that Dink published a story in Agos in 2004 about
Turkey’s first-ever female fighter pilot, Sabiha Gökçen, who is the
adopted child of the Republic of Turkey’s founder, Mustafa Kemal
Atatürk. Dink wrote that Gökçen was actually an Armenian orphan who
survived the 1915 events. The story made headlines in the daily
Hürriyet, whose motto is “Turkey belongs to the Turks.”

A smear campaign was launched against Dink, concentrating on a single
sentence from Dink’s series of articles titled “On Armenian Identity,”
and he was accused of insulting Turkishness. Some individuals and
organization filed complaints against Dink using identical petitions.
Dink was convicted of violating the infamous Article 301 of the
Turkish Penal Code (TCK) which forbids insulting “Turkishness.”

Çetin recalled that the General Staff issued a harsh statement against
Dink’s article and following that statement, Dink was summoned to the
Istanbul Governor’s Office.
In “I am now a target,” an article published after that meeting, Dink
said that they wanted to teach him a lesson. “But what did they want
from Hrant, an individual running a newspaper and who tries to make
his voice heard? Why was the deep state preoccupied with Dink?” she
asked.

Her explanation was that some ultra-nationalists and neo-nationalists
or modernist nationalists, often called “ulusalci” in Turkish, who do
not want Turkey to enter the European Union, were trying to generate
fear in society by inciting suspicions about the West and threats of
missionaryism. “Another reason is that Dink was reminding the state
about the events of 1915, and the Gökçen story was too much for some
in society to digest. Dink was an affectionate, influential speaker.
All of that made Dink a dangerous person,” she added.

Armenians claim up to 1.5 million Armenians were killed during World
War I at the hands of the Ottoman Empire in a systematic genocide
campaign. Turkey categorically denies these charges, saying the death
toll is inflated and that Turks were also killed as Armenians revolted
against the Ottoman Empire in collaboration with Russian forces in
order to create an independent state in eastern Anatolia.

Hakan Bakircioglu, another lawyer working on behalf of the Dink
family, emphasized in another panel on Saturday that despite all the
efforts made by the Dink family and their attorneys, it has not been
possible to break the “unwillingness” of investigating prosecutors
with respect to delving deeper into the investigation and exploring
all the connections. “It was not possible to hear many public
officials as witnesses, who were protected with immunity,” he said. He
elaborated that the court rejected hearing key officials in the case
such as Celalettin Cerrah, head of the Istanbul Police Department at
the time; Ahmet Ilhan Güler, then director of the Istanbul
Intelligence Division; Ramazan Akyürek, head of the Intelligence
Department of the National Police Department. Resat Altay, director of
the Trabzon Police Department at the time; and Colonel Ali Öz,
commander of the Trabzon Gendarmerie Regiment.

In the last panel held on Saturday, “Deep labyrinths of the state:
Police and gendarmerie,” journalists debated the role of these two
institutions. There were tense moments as journalists argued that some
media organizations covered parts of the story and either emphasized
the role of the gendarmerie or the police according to their
ideological stance.

No hopes for a real investigation

Responding to an appeal from the Dink family lawyers, the Supreme
Court of Appeals’ Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office last week asked the
high court to overturn the Istanbul court’s controversial verdict
ruling out the involvement of an organized criminal network in Dink’s
murder, some panelists expressed their despair regarding the process.

Bakircioglu said that there is a need for a strong political will to
go forward with the case but he does not see it yet. “A case still
exists in Istanbul for the investigation of officials who played a
role in Dink’s murder by either planning the deed or covering up or
ignoring evidence. However, this case is not going proceeding with
action,” he said.

Göktas voiced similar views. “We have been guilelessly waiting for
justice to be enforced. The court’s actions and ruling ridiculed all
of us,” he said, adding that despite the top court prosecutor’s
positive move against the Istanbul court’s ruling last year, it does
not mean the Supreme Court will pass a decision in line with it
supporting the prosecutor’s opinion or that it will reveal that this
is not a the doing of a few individuals, but the work of a greater
conspiracy or organization.

“There is now even an ombusdsman now who approved the court’s ruling
against Dink on Article 301 charges,” he added in reference to
Parliament’s election of Mehmet Nihat Ömeroglu, a retired member of
the Supreme Court of Appeals, as Turkey’s first chief ombudsman.

On Jan. 10, 2013, The Supreme Court of Appeals’ Chief Public
Prosecutor’s Office said that Dink was clearly only killed because he
was of a different religion, and his murder was part of planned and
systematic activities of a criminal network aiming to damage the
state’s unity.

The European Court of Human Rights [ECtHR] ruled in September 2010
that Turkey had failed to investigate and prosecute those who were
responsible for Dink’s murder and this constitutes a violation of
Hrant Dink’s right to life.

Global Insight
January 18, 2013

Georgian PM visits Armenia, pledges “exemplary” bilateral relations

by Lilit Gevorgyan

During his first official visit to Armenia, Georgian prime minister
Bidzina Ivanishvili gave his personal assurance to his Armenian
counterpart that he would revamp bilateral relations and particularly
deal with the long-standing tensions between the central Georgian
government and the sizeable ethnic Armenian opposition in southern
Georgia.

Far from “ideal” relations

Georgia’s prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili said that the relations
with Armenia were normal but promised to build “ideal and exemplary”
ties, during his official visit to the Armenian capital Yerevan on 17
January. Ivanishvili’s pledge involved the three main problematic
issues, of which the treatment of the Georgia’s ethnic Armenian
community is the prominent one.

The two neighbouring nations have centuries of common history but
despite this, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, relations
between Tbilisi and Yerevan have been far from ideal, due to both
political and economic problems that afflict Georgia’s Armenians.
According to a United Nations High Commission of Refugees (UNHCR)
report, the ethnic Armenian community in Georgia continues to shrink
owing to different factors. Thus in 1959 there were 442,900 Armenians
in Georgia, constituting 11% of the total population. By 1979 this
number had dropped to 448,000 or 9%. January 2002’s national census
revealed that the Armenian population had then reduced to only
248,929, representing 5.7% of the total population of Georgia. The
Armenian population of Tbilisi, according to Indiana University (US)
research, has dropped from 74.3% nearly two centuries ago to a mere 7%
now. Still, Armenians remain the second largest ethnic group in the
country, with most of them centred in Tbilisi, Samtskhe-Javakheti and
Akhalkalaki, southern Georgia.

The latest wave of exodus came after the collapse of the Soviet Union
and the rise of Georgian nationalism. Armenians remain poorly
integrated into Georgian state structures, something that the EU has
repeatedly highlighted in recent years. The European bloc has also
raised concerns about the cultural rights of Georgia’s Armenian
community, including the right to have full-time Armenia language
schools, while the Georgian government under President Mikhail
Saakashvili has advocated the prominence of the Georgian language, the
only acceptable language for landing a public job both in central and
local authorities.

Economic opportunities remain very limited for the southern regions,
an issue that was further aggravated after the Georgian authorities
shut down Russian military bases in the region between 2001 and 2007.
The military bases were a key source of employment for local Armenians
and since their closure, little has been done to create more economic
opportunities. The UNHCR report also confirms that economic issues are
increasingly the main driver behind the continued exodus, which has
affected not only Armenian but Georgians and other ethnic groups.
Ivanishvili, elected only a few months ago after his Georgian Dream
coalition gained a surprise victory in October 2012’s parliamentary
race, said that the “ball is now in my court,” to deliver on his
election campaign promises and improve conditions for the sizeable
ethnic Armenian population of Samtskhe-Javakheti and Akhalkalaki.

Another dimension to the tensions is the continued suspicion of
potential Armenian secessionist intentions, although officially
Armenia has never made such claims. But the mistrust is mutual, and
worsened in the last decade as the central Georgian government decided
to settle Mtskheti Turks, repatriating from Central Asia, in the
southern regions. This has led to a number of Armenian community
organisations accuse the central government in trying to change the
demographics of Samtskhe-Javakheti and Akhalkalaki.

Ivanishvili is trying to solve a multi-layered problem – the issue of
ownership of churches is also adding to ongoing Armenian-Georgian
tensions. According to Radio Free Europe (RFE/RL), a number of worship
sites are claimed by both the Armenian Apostolic and Georgian Orthodox
Churches. These concern the fate of formerly Armenian churches in
Tbilisi and abandoned medieval monasteries in Armenia’s Lori province,
bordering Georgia. Ivanishvili told RFE/RL that he also held meetings
with the head of the Armenian Church, Catholicos Garegin II at the
Echmiadzin headquarters of the Armenian Church. True to his innovative
approach to thorny issues, Ivanishvili has proposed to use his
personal capital from a special fund which will be set up to renovate
all disputed churches, as well as sponsoring joint archaeological work
on these sites. All initiatives have been welcomed by Armenia,
according to Ivanishvili.

Two different views from Georgia

Opening a railway linking Georgia with Russia via the breakaway region
of Abkhazia has critical operational importance for landlocked
Armenia. The network was closed in 1992 following the outbreak of the
war between the autonomous region and the central government.
Armenia’s desperate efforts to see the railway opened did not bring
any results. Armenia, itself under blockade from Azerbaijan and Turkey
over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, relies on Georgia and Iran for its
trade. The Georgian Black Sea ports of Batumi and Poti handle most of
the freight for Armenian businesses, but reopening the Abkhazian
railroad would significantly reduce transportation costs for Armenian
businesses.

Ivanishvili made a very bold pledge to open the railway while in
Armenia, saying that the Georgian side is ready. RFE/RL quoted
Ivanishvili as saying, “I feel that Russia is showing understanding
for this issue. There are positive signals from our Abkhaz brothers.”
However, almost immediately Saakashvili branded his arch-rival’s plans
as “anti-state” and damaging Georgia’s national interests. The
president, who is due to end his final term in October this year and
is likely to be replaced by Ivanishvili, said that only after the
“de-occupation” of Abkhazia from the Russian military the opening of
the railway could be considered.

Outlook and implications

Ivanishvili’s constructive dialogue with the Armenian government also
included signing a Georgian-Armenian agreement on joint customs
administration at the border between the two countries. The Armenian
prime minister also proposed creating a customs bloc to facilitate
trade between the two neighbouring states.

Ivanishvili’s visit to Armenia has to meet diplomatic and domestic
political goals. Diplomatically, it was to counterbalance an earlier
visit to Azerbaijan, Armenia’s arch-enemy. Georgian-Azerbaijani
relations have become particularly strong under the presidency of
Saakashvili. The latter’s quest to restore Georgia’s territorial
integrity rhymes well with that of the Azeri president Ilham Aliyev
keen to return ethnic Armenian breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

But Ivanishvili delivered a more neutral statement in both capitals,
saying that all disagreements must be resolved through peace talks.
Domestically, catering to Armenian electorate is important for
Ivanishvili’s government. The recent polls showed that the ethnic
Armenian vote mostly went to the PM’s Georgian Dream coalition. Given
the continuing frustration amongst the ethnic Armenian voters with the
current state of affairs any promise of hope is better than none.
Ivanishvili is unlikely to deliver on all his pledges in the short
term. However, generous gestures such as restoring churches could
secure support for the Georgian Dream candidate from a segment of
Georgia’s electorate in the October presidential race.

Economic News (Information Agency Oreanda), Russia
January 17, 2013 Thursday

IMF: Armenian Banking System Proves Resilient to Financial Crisis

Yerevan. OREANDA-NEWS . January 17, 2013. The banking system of
Armenia proved resilient to the financial crisis and the severe
exchange rate depreciation and GDP contraction of 2009, says the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) in an assessment of the countrys
financial sector, published on January 11, 2013. The resilience is in
part due to the low level of intermediation and exposure to key
sectors such as construction, but also because of swift efforts on the
part of the authorities to provide support to the banking sector.
Stress tests show that banks would be resilient to a repeated shock,
although there are some heightened vulnerabilities, according to the
IMFs Financial Sector Stability Assessment Program (FSAP) Update for
Armenia.

The authorities show considerable commitment to embedding strong
supervision as an expectation in Armenia said Jennifer Elliott, FSAP
mission chief. Further work on deepening understanding of individual
banks risk profiles and some additional reporting from banks would be
a continuation of their progress. The system remains broadly
appropriate for the level of development but additions will be
required as the financial system develops.

The country however remains vulnerable to a current account shock,
according to the assessment. The authorities are engaged in further
action that could be taken to protect the banking sector, including
the introduction of a liquidity coverage ratio in foreign currency to
ensure sufficient liquidity for the high level of dollar deposits and
are developing more robust monitoring of foreign currency exposures of
borrowers, because foreign currency lending generates significant
credit risk.

The authorities have already taken steps, since the FSAP mission, to
strengthen the crisis management framework concluding a Memorandum of
Understanding between the central bank and Ministry of Finance.

The Financial Sector Assessment Program, established in 1999, is a
comprehensive and in-depth assessment of a countrys financial sector.
To assess the stability of the financial sector, IMF teams examine the
soundness of the banking and other financial sub-sectors; rate the
quality of bank, insurance, payments, and capital market supervision
against accepted international standards; and evaluate the ability of
supervisors, policymakers, and financial safety nets to respond
effectively to a systemic crisis. While FSAPs do not evaluate the
health of individual financial institutions and cannot predict or
prevent financial crises, they identify the main vulnerabilities that
could trigger one.

Izvestiya, Russia
Jan 11 2013

New Armenian President Will Choose Between EU and Customs Union.

Country’s Central Electoral Commission Has Completed Registration of
Candidates for Presidential Election

by Tigran Oganesyan
[Translated from Russian]

The Armenian Central Electoral Commission has completed registration
of the country’s presidential candidates. In the 18 February election,
eight people will compete for the position, including the favorite,
incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan. Armenia considers that the Kremlin
will back him as the most viable candidate.

Many analysts in Armenia consider, however, that if Sargsyan is
reelected, he is unlikely to abandon a Euro-Atlantic course. Doctor of
Political Science Amayak Ovannisyan, president of the Armenian
Association of Political Analysts, told Izvestiya that many presidents
of countries in the post-Soviet space gave assurances of loyalty to
Russia, but forgot about this after their reelection, as happened with
Ukrainian leader Yanukovych, for example.

“And then, why should the incumbent president be thankful to Russia,
if he has no competitors in the coming election? And consequently has
no need for support from outside,” he explained.

The lack of alternatives to Sargsyan’s election as head of state arose
after the unexpected withdrawal from the race of Gagik Tsarukyan,
leader of the Prosperous Armenia party, the second political force in
parliament. At 68 years old, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the first president
of Armenia [from 1991-1998], heading the opposition Armenian National
Congress, also declined to participate in the coming election because
of his age.

The recent visit to Yerevan by foreign ministers from Poland, Sweden,
and Bulgaria also confirmed the fact that Armenia does not intend to
reject close relations with Europe; during a meeting with the
ministers, President Sargsyan noted that “relations between Armenia
and the EU within the framework of the Eastern Partnership are
developing intensively and have moved onto a qualitatively new plane.”
Significant progress has also been achieved in negotiations on an
association agreement and on the question of creating an extended and
comprehensive free trade zone. Both parties hope that the negotiations
will be completed by November of this year, before the Eastern
Partnership Summit in Vilnius. And on 17 December a visa facilitation
agreement was signed, which will give Armenia’s young people and
cultural figures the opportunity to visit EU countries according to a
simplified procedure.

Armenia refuses to join the Customs Union, justifying this by the
absence of common borders with the structure’s member countries, and
is currently pondering the expediency of joining the Eurasian Union.
In this connection, Richard Kirakosyan, leader of the Regional Studies
Center, suggested that Russia will try to “punish” Armenia by
increasing gas prices. Armen Arzumanyan, press secretary to the
Armenian president, denied to Izvestiya rumors that Vladimir Putin is
preparing for a visit to Yerevan in the near future.

“If issues regarding joining the Eurasian Union are clearly set out in
the incumbent president’s election platform, then this will
undoubtedly create certain guarantees of Armenia’s progress along the
path of Eurasian integration in the postelection period,” the head of
the Armenian Association of Political Analysts considers.

At the same time, many people in Armenia consider that Russia
currently has very limited opportunity to influence the outcome of the
presidential election, which is why Russia will prefer to back the
“viable” candidate — incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan.

[Translated from Russian]

Interfax, Russia
Dec 15 2013

Turkey, Azerbaijan cannot obtain unilateral concessions on Karabakh
from Armenia – Armenian president

YEREVAN. Jan 15

Turkey and Azerbaijan will be unable to obtain unilateral concessions
on Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia, despite Armenia’s continuing
blockade, says Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan.

“We should not forget that there is a state in the region that
unconditionally supports Baku’s anti-Armenian policy. The
Turkish-Azeri tandem based on the ‘one nation, two states’ motto has
been trying for twenty years to wriggle unilateral concessions on
Karabakh from Armenia by way of a blockade, the deepening of the
dividing lines and noncooperation. They have been unsuccessful and
will never be successful in this,” Sargsyan said at an expanded
meeting at the Defense Ministry attended by top-ranking officials from
the legislative, executive and judicial branches on Tuesday.

Sargsyan insisted that Ankara’s declared ‘zero problems with
neighbors’ policy has achieved “a zero result,” the presidential press
service told Interfax.

“The reason is that Turkey is trying to resolve all its problems with
the neighbors at the neighbors’ expense. Turkey is a rapidly
developing and progressing country today, but this process will never
be full, and its dramatic end is predictable unless the Turkish
authorities seriously reconsider their attitude toward their state’s
and people’s history,” he said.

The recognition and denunciation of the Armenian Genocide is “Turkey’s
debt to the genocide’s victims, their descendants, humankind and the
Turkish people,” he said.

“The Turkish people are gradually questioning the decades-long
government propaganda regarding the Armenian Genocide. For Armenia,
the recognition of the genocide is not only a demand for justice and
fairness, but it also has significance from the security standpoint. I
believe that, without Turkey’s sincere remorse and elimination of the
genocide’s consequences, Armenia’s secure existence in the region will
remain under threat,” he said.

Realizing the importance of forming an atmosphere of confidence in the
region, Armenia initiated normalization of its relations with Turkey,
he said.

“However, everyone knows the fate of this initiative and in what
circumstances Turkey refused to honor the obligations it undertook by
keeping closed the last closed border in Europe,” Sargsyan said.

va rb

Interfax, Russia
Jan 15 2013

Azeri president warns Armenia against continuing conflict over Karabakh

BAKU. Jan 15

Armenia should withdraw its troops from Azeri territory, or otherwise
the continuation of the conflict will do it no good, Azeri President
Ilham Aliyev said.

“I am sure that the forces in Armenia approaching the problem from a
realistic standpoint perfectly understand that this conflict and
rivalry with Azerbaijan doesn’t promise any good to them but, on the
contrary, they are losing this fight more and more,” Aliyev said at a
government session dealing with the country’s socioeconomic
development in 2012 and prospects for 2013.

Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh have stalled because of Armenia’s
unconstructive position, Aliyev said. “However, there are principles
from which we won’t step back by an inch. This issue should be settled
only based on Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, and the occupation
forces must leave Azeri territory,” he said.

Baku’s position on the conflict is unshakeable from either a legal or
a political standpoint, and Azerbaijan is also stepping up its
economic and military might, he said.

At the same time, the international community’s position on the
problem is also unambiguous, fair and based on international law,
Aliyev said. The president mentioned resolutions adopted in 2012 at
NATO and Non-Aligned Movement summits saying that the conflict over
Nagorno-Karabakh must be settled based on the countries’ territorial
integrity.

va rb

Interfax, Russia
Jan 15 2013

CSTO guarantor of Armenia’s security – Sargsyan

YEREVAN. Jan 15

The Armenian-Russian allied strategic partnership is the backbone of
Armenia’s security, said Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan.

“The Armenian-Russia strategic allied partnership remains the nucleus
of Armenian security. We also attach extremely serious importance to
our membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which
we see as the real guarantee of Armenia’s security,” he told an
enlarged meeting of Defense Ministry officials, attended by lawmakers,
government executives and representatives of the judiciary.

Sargsyan also said, according to the presidential press service, that
Armenia “strongly and transparently” cooperates with NATO “in order to
apply the Alliance’s best experience in modernizing the Armenian armed
forces.” “Armenian peacekeepers continue service in NATO’s
international peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan and Kosovo,” he
said.

Sd rb

ITAR-TASS, Russia
January 1, 2013 Tuesday 11:46 PM GMT+4

Armenian patriarch prays for wellbeing of Syrian Armenians on New Year night

YEREVAN January 1

The supreme hierarch of the Armenian Apostolic Church prayed for the
wellbeing of the Syrian Armenians on the New Year night.

“At this moment prior to the coming of the New Year that is filled
with good expectations, let’s recall about our compatriots, who live
in Syria, all exiled and mourning people in our prayers,” Supreme
Patriarch and Catholicos of All Armenians Garegin II said in his
traditional televised address. “Let’s pray about our relatives, who
are far away from us,” he said.

“In the previous year we were alarmed with the fate of our
compatriots, who live in the Middle East and who continue to suffer
from the hardships and the troubles of the armed conflict,” Garegin II
said.

“The new year in our life is marked with the presidential elections
(the presidential elections are due on February 18 – Itar-Tass),” the
Armenian catholicos recalled. “With our faith in a good, fair and
prosperous life we should make this day a good stage on the way of
promoting the stable progress and the development of our strong
homeland,” the patriarch believes.

“The prayer and the desire in my soul is aimed at the new year of 2013
to be full of peace and wellbeing for our people and the whole world,”
the catholicos said.

Garegin II wished that “our believers in the homeland and in the
Armenian diaspora will live and work in the national patriotic spirit,
with the unshakable faith in the God, so that with the aid of the God
they will make our hopes and our ideas of national revival come true.”

“We lived the previous year in peace, and took all the efforts to
build up our spiritual and domestic life for the sake of wellbeing and
progress of our people, we were seeking to overcome the problems,
which we were facing,” the Armenian catholicos recalled.

The Armenian patriarch chanted the prayers “for our army, which
protect the borders of our homeland, and for all, who see in New Year
at their workplaces.”

Seven differences in presidential elections

05:58 pm | January 18, 2013 | Politics

Experts in Armenia say that the upcoming presidential election differs
from the previous five elections as February 18 is not like any of the
previous elections.
After studying the upcoming and previous elections we have singled out
seven characteristics, showing the main differences between the
presidential elections.

1. The opposition named its candidate in the 2008 election, and no one
doubted his political affiliation. [Armenia’s first President] Levon
Ter-Petrosyan had returned to the political arena to destroy the
kleptocratic pyramid led by people he had brought to Armenia. Today,
we do not know which of the seven candidates represents the opposition
and the pro-government forces.

2. In 2008, all regional TV companies, with the exception of
Gyumri-based Gala TV, refused to air presidential campaign commercials
saying they are not profitable.

3. Today, the authorities do not see real contenders, hence the need
to intimidate the rival’s teammates. In 2008, we had the opposite
picture: stones were thrown at Ter-Petrosyan’s supporters during a
campaign meeting in Artashat and Ter-Petrosyan’s election office in
Kapan was closed down by the Chief of Police. Cases of election
bribery are expected to considerably reduce in February’s ballot.

4. None of Serzh Sargsyan’s contenders is seeking support from Russia
or the West.

5. None of the candidates is viewed as a serious challenger to the
pro-government candidate, with the latter’s supporters gathering
outside his election headquarters and calling for the banishment of
the `dangerous’ man from Armenia.

6. For the first time the authorities are not forced to pledge to
conduct free, fair and transparent elections while in 2008 Serzh
Sargsyan entered into the presidential race with the pledge and gave
the pledge in all his campaign rallies.

7. None of Serzh Sargsyan’s challengers is capable of mobilizing the
supporters of his rivals, as well as representatives of the
legislative power. Finally, the businessmen enjoying the favor of the
authorities will not turn to the authorities and express their anxiety
that the strong opposition movement could threaten the country’s
economic life.

Mher Arshakyan

ANCA calls on the US Government to increase assistance to Armenia

The Armenian National Committee of America, citing a recent round of
positive third-party evaluations of Armenia’s progress across a broad
array of economic indicators, has called on members of the newly
installed 113th Congress to both appropriate increased economic
assistance for Armenia and to expand programs to promote U.S.-Armenia
bilateral trade and investment. Asbarez.com writes about this.

Among the favorable findings referenced by the ANCA, in a letter sent
this week to legislative offices calling for expanded trade promotion
and increased assistance to Armenia, were the following:

– The World Bank, in its 2013 Doing Business report, ranked Armenia
#32 worldwide in terms of overall ease of doing business, #11 for ease
of starting a business, and #4 for ease of registering property.

– The Wall Street Journal/Heritage Foundation’s 2013 Index of Economic
Freedom rates Armenia #38 worldwide, and #17 among the 43 European
states, ahead of Belgium, France, and Spain.

– The World Economic Forum’s 2012 Global Enabling Trade Report ranks
Armenia #13 worldwide for market access and #59 in terms of the
overall extent to which it has developed institutions, policies, and
services facilitating the free flow of goods over borders.

– Price Waterhouse Cooper, in its most recent Doing Business in
Armenia guide, reported that, `Armenia encourages foreign trade and
investment,’ and that, `[s]urveys suggest that Armenia is a relatively
easy country in which to do business.’

– The Millennium Challenge Corporation’s 2013 scorecard reports that
Armenia is rated in the 97th percentile in terms of both favorable
trade policy and business start up, and in the 91st percentile with
regard to regulatory quality.

– Freedom House, in its 2013 report on Freedom in the World, upgraded
Armenia to a 5 rating for political rights.
In addition to these favorable indicators, Armenia has been a strong
security partner for the United States, having sent troops to support
U.S.-led coalition efforts in Iraq, to assist NATO operations in
Afghanistan, and to take part in international peacekeeping in Kosovo.

In terms of trade promotion, the ANCA – along with the American
Chamber of Commerce in Armenia and major corporations, including
Microsoft, FedEx, and NASDAQ – have called on the U.S. government to
respond favorably to the Armenian government’s interest in negotiating
a badly-needed U.S.-Armenia Trade and Investment Framework Agreement
and a long-overdue Double Tax Treaty. The ANCA looks to the Obama
Administration to honor the President’s commitments to expand
U.S.-Armenia trade and investment, and is calling upon Congress to
support the growth of mutually beneficial economic bilateral
relations.

The legislative memo noted that, `it is in this spirit, and upon the
solid foundation and friendship of the past two decades, that we call
upon you to support the appropriation of increased economic assistance
for Armenia and the expansion of programs to promote mutually
beneficial U.S-Armenia bilateral trade and investment (such as a
badly-needed U.S.-Armenia Trade and Investment Framework Agreement and
a long-overdue Double Tax Treaty).’

The level of U.S. aid to Armenia, which hit a high of $174 million in
Fiscal Year 2003, has been steadily declining over the past decade, as
a result of both calls by successive Administrations for cuts, and
growing Congressional pressure for reductions in spending. The Obama
Administration, which came into office with aid levels at more than
$60 million, has, despite the President’s campaign pledge to maintain
assistance to Armenia, sought reductions in the Armenia aid program.
The overall economic and military aid level for Armenia in the most
recent appropriations cycle is less than $45 million. The ANCA is
asking for at least $50 million in FY2014 aid to Armenia. The
President’s proposed FY14 budget will be released in the coming weeks.