Author: Kajoyan Gevork

SHIRAK AIRPORT IN GYUMRI TO RESUME OPERATION IN NOVEMBER

ARMENPRESS
Oct 26, 2007

GYUMRI, OCTOBER 26, ARMENPRESS: The airport in Armenia’s second largest
town of Gyumri will resume operation on November 19. Artyom Movsisian,
head of the government-affiliated Civil Aviation Department, said the
repair of its runway and other auxiliary facilities will be over by
November 12.

The airport was handed to a concessional management of the Armenia
International Airports, which also runs the biggest Zvartnots airport
in Yerevan. It was said to have invested about $10 million in upgrading
the Gyumri airport.

Movsisyan said after the repair the airport in Gyumri can claim the
first class certification. The airport in Gyumri called Shirak will
be used as a reserve airport for European carriers instead of the
airport in Georgia’s Tbilisi.

The airport will operate regular flights to several Russian cities,
including Moscow.

AFTER 5-YEAR BREAK YOUNG SINGER GURGEN DABAGHIAN RETURNS TO STAGE

Noyan Tapan
Oct 25, 2007

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 25, NOYN TAPAN. After a 5-year break young singer
Gurgen Dabaghian returns to the stage. His first solo concert will take
place in the "Aram Khachatrian" concert hall on November 5. Folk and
bard songs will be performed during the concert to the accompaniment
of duduk player Gevorg Dabaghian, the uncle of Gurgen Dabaghian,
and Sayat-Nova bard song ensemble.

"After a break of 5 years Gurgen enters the art of song and will
again enrapture the Armenian audience with his perfect performances,"
duduk-player Gevorg Dabaghian said in his conversation with a Noyan
Tapan correspondent.

According to him, no genre changes are expected in the repertoire
of the 19 year old singer, he will keep to the genre of folk songs,
since Gurgen Dabaghian became known and loved by people with the
performance of folk songs.

The dudul-player is sure that after Gurgen returns to the stage,
numerous children will follow his example and the Armenian national
music will not fall into oblivion any longer. "The sources of the
Armenian national music are deep and rich, and we are obliged to
promote this music as our country can be represented in the world
only by our national music," Gevorg Dabaghian mentioned.

TURKISH-KURDISH TENSION SPARKS SHARP DEBATE IN AZERBAIJAN
Rovshan Ismayilov

EurasiaNet, UK
Oct 25 2007

As Turkey ponders cross-border military operations against Kurdish
militants in northern Iraq, an emotional debate is unfolding in
Azerbaijan over the extent to which Baku should assist Ankara.

Politicians, media analysts and the general population in Azerbaijan
unambiguously support Ankara’s position on dealing with the Kurdish
militant threat — a reflection of the strong cultural ties between
the two countries. The slogan "Turkish Brothers – We Are With You!"

appears daily on the front page of Yeni Musavat newspaper, a mouthpiece
for the opposition Musavat Party. Such sentiments have been echoed
by the governing Yeni Azerbaijan Party, and on October 19, activists
from one youth movement staged a solidarity demonstration in front
of the Turkish Embassy in Baku.

Beyond the rhetoric of solidarity, however, it remains unclear what
action the Azerbaijani government is willing to take to assist Turkish
efforts to contain the Kurdish insurgency.

At an October 22 press briefing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Khazar
Ibrahim described Ankara’s actions as "the consequence of terrorism,"
but stopped short of asserting that Baku will label the PKK, or
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a Kurdish guerilla group that opposes
Turkey, as a terrorist organization. "In this and other issues,
Azerbaijan has always supported Turkey," he said. "It is known
that many states and international organizations consider the PKK
a terrorist organization." Baku, however, he added, does not have a
policy of officially labeling organizations as terrorist groups.

Unnamed Turkish sources told the Turan news agency that "the Kurdish
problem" and possible military operations in northern Iraq had been
discussed in Baku during an October 18 meeting between the security
service chiefs of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

The deputy foreign ministers of Turkey and Azerbaijan, Unal Chevikez
and Araz Azimov respectively, reportedly held closed-door consultations
on security, military and political issues the following day.

Foreign Ministry statements of support for Turkey have been
accompanied by a denunciation of another event that has provoked
Ankara’s wrath, the approval of a non-binding resolution by the US
House of Representatives’ Foreign Relations Committee to recognize
Ottoman Turkey’s 1915 slaughter of ethnic Armenians as genocide. An
October 12 Foreign Ministry statement says that Congress’ rejection of
the resolution would show "that the US Congress holds an open-minded
position and that it is not under the pressure of ethnic lobbies." The
resolution is now not expected to come up for a vote before 2008,
if at all. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

One expert in Baku, however, believes the government has given
inadequate support to a critical strategic ally. Recognizing the
PKK as a terrorist organization, or a parliamentary resolution to
support Turkey, would have been a more systematic approach, argued
Elhan Shahinoglu, director of Baku’s Atlas political research center.

"Otherwise, the international community did not receive a clear
message from Baku about its moral and political support of Turkey."

Shahinoglu, however, termed appeals by members of parliament for
Azerbaijan to send troops to northern Iraq to support Turkey against
the Kurds an "emotional reaction … designed to win popular support."

The proposals were brusquely dismissed by Parliamentary Speaker Ogtay
Asadov as "not serious."

Turkish President Abdullah Gul’s first official visit to Azerbaijan,
slotted for early November, could prompt a clearer statement on the
topic from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Shahinoglu said.

During a recent trip to Ankara, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
endorsed Turkey’s "legitimate right" to send military forces across
the Iraqi border in pursuit of Kurdish militants. Such a statement
could serve as a precedent for a similar expression of support by
Aliyev, he added.

Meanwhile, energy issues are on the minds of Azerbaijani officials.

An October 22 report issued by the Reuters news agency and
republished in Azerbaijani newspapers stated that Kurdish militants
have threatened to attack Turkey’s pipeline infrastructure, including
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. Part of the pipeline lies in
Kurdish-populated regions of Turkey.

While dismissing the likelihood of a successful attack on Azerbaijani
territory, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ibrahim said that the threat
should be taken "seriously" and interpreted as targeted against
the interests of all countries, including the European Union, that
receive oil from the BTC pipeline. The Foreign Ministry has asked
for the international community "to express a clear position" on the
reported statement.

For now, though, neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan appears unduly
alarmed. In response to the threat, Turkish Ambassador to Baku
Huseyn Avni Karsiioglu has asserted that Kurdish militants "do not
constitute any menace to BTC’s successful operation," adding that "many
countries are interested in the stable functioning of the pipeline,"
the Novosti-Azerbaijan news agency reported on October 22.

Ilham Shaban, a Baku-based energy analyst who traveled along the
BTC route in 2006, says that a special optic cable laid alongside
the pipeline to register vibrations means that any attack would be
"immediately" signaled, and operations could be shortly resumed.

The pipeline, which runs through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey,
is expected to ship 1 million barrels of oil per day in 2008,
up from 750,000 in 2007, officials say. Under existing agreements,
responsibility for security along the pipeline’s route lies with the
three host countries.

Editor’s Note: Rovshan Ismayilov is a freelance journalist based
in Baku.

ONESIDEZERO GUITARIST COMMENTS ON RESISTANCE TO RECOGNIZE ARMENIAN GENOCIDE

BlabberMouth, NY
et/news.aspx?mode=Article&newsitemID=83387
Oct 24 2007

Guitarist Levon Sultanian of the Los Angeles-based band ONESIDEZERO
has commented on the Bush Administration’s recommendation to Congress
to reject legislation that would declare the World War I-era killings
of hundreds of thousands of Armenians as genocide.

"Genocide still exists," Sultanian said. "We saw it in Rwanda (1994)
and we see it in Darfur today. The only thing worse is when a mass
killing of a nation is NOT RECOGNIZED as a GENOCIDE, like the Armenian
Genocide. The Bush Administration is worried that the passing of the
Armenian Resolution and recognizing the mass killings in 1915 of 1.5
million Armenians will badly damage the American-Turkish relations
and U.S. interests in the Middle East (Iraq and Afghanistan). How
distorted is our government’s priorities?

Are financial stakes more important than recognizing and acknowledging
injustice against humanity? The Armenian Genocide happened; it is
a reality in the history of mankind. Honest Turks like Orhan Pamuk,
Nobel Peace Prize winner, acknowledge the Armenian Genocide and had
the balls to ask that all Turks accept this dark historic reality."

ONESIDEZERO is currently supporting its recently released Ulrich
Wild-produced (STATIC-X, STABBING WESTWARD, TAPROOT) sophomore album,
which was released through Corporate Punishment Records. The CD is the
long-awaited follow-up to the band’s critically acclaimed 2001 debut
"Is This Room Getting Smaller?", which saw the group tour with the
likes of INCUBUS, 311, STATIC-X, and SOULFLY.

The album’s first single, "My Confession", has been picking up steam
at radio with the track receiving steady rotation on XM Radio’s Squizz
channel and Los Angeles-based KROQ.

TER-PETROSIAN STEPS IN TO FREE DETAINED LOYALISTS
By Astghik Bedevian

Radio Liberty, Czech Republic
Oct 24 2007

Former President Levon Ter-Petrosian spent four hours at a police
station in Yerevan negotiating the release early on Wednesday of a
dozen loyalists who were arrested while urging Armenians to take part
in his rally scheduled for Friday.

The eleven detainees, most of them members of the Aylentrank
(Alternative) movement, were among about a hundred Ter-Petrosian
loyalists who marched through the city center on Tuesday evening
to spread word of the planned rally. They were taken into custody
after a scuffle with security forces led by Colonel Aleksandr Afian,
deputy chief of the Yerevan police.

Eyewitnesses said the violence broke out after Afian demanded that
Aylentrank leader Nikol Pashinian hand him a megaphone used during
the march. Pashinian, who is also the editor of Armenia’s best-selling
daily newspaper, refused to obey the order, they said.

"We told Afian that his actions are illegal," Tigran, a young member
of the radical opposition Hanrapetutyun party also detained on the
spot, told RFE/RL. "He said, ‘I am the law and you must do whatever
I want.’ Then he called up [special police wearing] red berets and
they attacked and arrested us."

The police blamed the incident on the demonstrators, accusing them of
disrupting public order. Colonel Nerses Nazarian, the Yerevan police
chief said they interfered with traffic and littered streets and
building entrances with leaflets advertising the Ter-Petrosian rally.

"People were complaining from their balconies that it is inadmissible
to toss those papers," Nazarian told a news conference. "That also
got us worried and we repeatedly warned [the demonstrators.]"

"The purpose of the action was evident: to provoke some confrontation
with the police," Nazarian said, adding that Afian and four other
policemen suffered injuries in the ensued melee. He described Afian as
the number one victim of the violence, saying that the oppositionists
pulled his shirt, threw off his hat and scratched his hands.

Nazarian confirmed that the police opened a criminal case in connection
with the incident under the articles of the Armenian Criminal Code
dealing with "hooliganism" and assault on state officials.

Pashinian and his allies dismissed the official version of events,
saying that their street march did not violate Armenia’s law on public
gatherings and was not banned by the Yerevan municipality.

They accused security forces of violating their civil rights and
demanded criminal proceedings against Afian. "Sashik Afian behaved
like a street criminal," charged Pashinian.

Pashinian and the ten other activists, among them the female editor
of another pro-Ter-Petrosian newspaper, were set free early in
the morning after Ter-Petrosian’s four-hour negotiations between
with Afian held at the police headquarters of Yerevan’s central
Kentron district. Ter-Petrosian arrived at the police building at
around midnight as hundreds of his supporters stood outside it do
demand the release of the arrested activists. They greeted him with
"Levon! Levon!" chants.

Ter-Petrosian, accompanied by businessman and parliament deputy
Khachatur Sukiasian, emerged from the building several minutes later to
urge the crowd to "calm down." "We are going to clear up everything,"
he said. "Enjoy your cigarettes, exchange jokes and have fun."

The Kentron police headquarters was earlier visited by three
parliamentarians representing the opposition Zharangutyun (Heritage)
party as well as Armenia’s human rights ombudsman, Armen Harutiunian.

According to one of the parliament deputies, Zaruhi Postanjian, some of
the detainees looked injured. But Harutiunian said he found no traces
of violence on their faces and saw "beaten police officers" instead.

"They had no right to demand the megaphone," Harutiunian told RFE/RL.

"Every citizen who wants to organize a march has the right to propagate
it by lawful means, including a megaphone."

The oppositionists were set free after signing a pledge not to
leave Yerevan pending the investigation. A defiant Pashinian held an
improvised rally at the scene. "We have shown that we are not going
to bow to lawlessness," he said. "I told Sashik Afian that he will
end up in jail."

The outspoken editor also thanked Ter-Petrosian for arranging his
and his comrades’ release. "For us, Levon Ter-Petrosian is now not
only a presidential candidate but a comrade-in-arms," he said to
rapturous applause.

Friday’s rally is widely seen as a further step towards Ter-Petrosian’s
participation in the upcoming presidential vote. The 62-year-old
ex-president is increasingly emerging as the main challenger of the
election favorite, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian.

Ter-Petrosian’s political allies say the authorities are increasingly
worried about his political comeback and are doing everything
to disrupt his rally. They point to the refusal by virtually all
Armenian TV stations to air paid adverts notifying citizens about
the upcoming rally. Mikael Hayrapetian, another Aylentrank leader,
alleged that the authorities provoked Tuesday’s violent incident in
order to "stem a big tide that could rise on October 26."

Such claims were effectively endorsed by Zharangutyun, one of the two
opposition parties represented in Armenia’s parliament. In a written
statement, the party led by former Foreign Minister Raffi Hovannisian
expressed serious concern at the "growing wave of repressions" in the
country. It said the authorities have grown "panicky over possible
internal political developments" and are trying to intimidate their
political opponents.

Deputy Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamian denied this during the
government’s question-and-answer session in parliament on Wednesday.

Abrahamian said the government is not interest in heightening political
tention in the country. "But we can not allow several individuals to
organize themselves to disrupt public order and commit hooligan acts
in an organized fashion," he said.

Meanwhile, Nazarian, the Yerevan police chief, issued a stern warning
to organizers of Friday’s rally. "We won’t allow anyone to disrupt
public order," he said. "I have ordered policemen to be very strict
and not allow any violation. All of that is being done for maintaining
public order in Yerevan."

GENOCIDE ARMENIEN: LA RESOLUTION DU CONGRèS, UN TEST POUR LA DIPLOMATIE AMERICAINE (ANALYSTE)

RIA Novosti, Russie
Oct 23 2007

EREVAN, 22 octobre – RIA Novosti. La resolution du Congrès sur la
reconnaissance du genocide armenien est un test pour la diplomatie
americaine, estime le directeur de l’Institut des pays de la CEI et
depute a la Douma, Konstantin Zatouline.

"La resolution sur la reconnaissance du genocide armenien est un test
interessant pour la diplomatie americaine: dans quelle mesure elle
tient a des motifs lies a la conjoncture, dans quelle mesure elle se
fonde sur les principes qu’elle s’est attribue: honnetete, justice,
objectivite", a-t-il declare dimanche a Erevan lors d’une conference
de presse au Club de presse national, rapporte l’agence News Armenia.

Selon M. Zatouline, il est très clair qu’une lutte est deja en cours
entre, d’une part, l’interet national, dictant l’obligation de soutenir
la Turquie, en tant qu’allie des Etats-Unis au sein de l’OTAN et,
d’autre part, le desir de reconnaître officiellement la verite (dans
ce cas, sur le genocide armenien).

"Autant que je sache, le nombre de congressmen soutenant cette
resolution a diminue après les pressions de l’administration Bush.

C’est triste et je voudrais vraiment que les Etats-Unis et la Russie
ne se fassent pas concurrence sur la question de savoir qui est le
plus proche ami de l’Armenie et qui, de fait, est en position ou non
de reconnaître des faits manifestes", a-t-il poursuivi, ajoutant qu’il
fallait toujours garder a l’esprit que le genocide armenien au debut
du XXe siècle avait ete le prelude aux autres genocides de ce siècle,
notamment la Shoah sous l’Allemagne nazie.

L’expert a note que la Turquie, qui souhaite tout particulièrement
rester un pays moderne et laïque, traversait une periode assez
difficile de lutte entre differentes tendances.

"Tout de meme, la tendance "nous ne reconnaissons, ni ne
reconnaîtrons" domine en Turquie, qui voit tous les pas [allant vers
une reconnaissance] comme une demarche hostile et fait du chantage
aux membres de l’OTAN, avant tout aux Etats-Unis", a-t-il precise.

Il considère en outre que l’adoption de la resolution par le Congrès
restera au point mort tant qu’on ne saura pas clairement si la Turquie
va lancer ou non une operation dans le nord de l’Irak.

"Je ne crois pas que la resolution sera adoptee par le Congrès. On
voit bien que les Americains sont actuellement en plein marchandage
avec la Turquie, marchandage dont le prix est la reconnaissance ou
non du genocide armenien", a-t-il affirme.

Ignorant les objections du president americain George W. Bush et du
gouvernement turc, les membres de la commission des Affaires etrangères
de la Chambre des representants du Congrès americain ont adopte le 10
octobre dernier la resolution 106, appelant a prendre en compte dans
la politique etrangère americaine la realite du genocide perpetre
contre les Armeniens sous l’Empire ottoman.

Le 18 octobre, la presidente du Congrès americain, la democrate
Nancy Pelosi, a emis des doutes quant a l’issue du vote sur la
resolution 106, 20 membres du Congrès ayant renonce a la soutenir
compte tenu de l’impact negatif qu’elle pourrait avoir sur les
relations americano-turques.

Le genocide armenien est le premier genocide du XXe siècle. La Turquie
refuse de reconnaître l’extermination de près d’un million et demi
d’Armeniens au cours de la première guerre mondiale et reagit avec
une irritation extreme aux critiques venues de l’Occident sur la
question du genocide. 23 pays ont deja reconnu le genocide armenien,
notamment l’Uruguay, la Russie, la France et la Lituanie.

–Boundary_(ID_wnr5ojetpYKb2dqHq9lxAw)- –

ARMENIA HIT BY SUGAR SHORTAGE
By Shakeh Avoyan

Radio Liberty, Czech Rep.
Oct 23 2007

Armenian authorities and retailers gave on Tuesday conflicting
explanations of mysterious shortages of sugar in the country that
cast fresh spotlight on the lucrative monopoly on imports of this
and other foodstuffs enjoyed by a government-connected tycoon.

Sugar was not available for sale in most grocery stores in Yerevan.

Supermarkets owned by Samvel Aleksanian, a businessman close to the
government, were apparently the only places where city residents
could buy it at a reasonable price. Long lines of people could be
seen outside them throughout the day.

The crisis erupted on Saturday as the retail price of sugar suddenly
skyrocketed from an average of 230 drams ($0.7) per kilogram. Some
stores were selling it for as much as 600 drams per kilogram on
Monday evening.

The Armenian government’s anti-trust body, State Commission on the
Protection of Economic Competition on Tuesday blamed the "artificial
shortage" on retailers, saying that they deliberately cut sugar supply
to make "super profits." " "We know that some shops have stored sugar
that was not put up for sale yesterday so that they can sell it for
600 drams," said the commission chairman, Ashot Shahnazarian.

However, retailers interviewed by RFE/RL rejected the accusations,
laying the blame on Aleksanian’s Salex Group company that
single-handedly controls wholesale sugar imports to Armenia. "He
probably wants to boost his supermarkets’ rating by not supplying
others," said one grocery store manager, who asked not to be
identified. "He is probably trying to show that he is the boss in
the republic and can easily hurt other people."

"There is simply no sugar in the market right now," added the
manager. "We just can’t buy it from our [wholesale] supplier."

But Shahnazarian insisted that Aleksanian and his company are not
responsible for the unprecedented crisis. He argued that Aleksanian’s
supermarkets did not raise the sugar price to cash in on the shortages.

Aleksanian, better known to most Armenians as Lfik Samo, is one of
the country’s wealthiest entrepreneurs who holds sway in Yerevan’s
blue-collar Malatia-Sebastia district. A parliament deputy affiliated
with the governing Republican Party, he has close ties with President
Robert Kocharian and Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian. Those ties are
believed to be the key factor behind his de facto monopoly on imports
of sugar, flour, cooking oil, butter and other basic foodstuffs.

The sugar crisis began just days after a sharp increase in the retail
price of cooking oil and butter. Shahnazarian’s commission found the
price hike "artificial and unjustified" and fined Salex on Thursday.

IRAN PRESIDENT DENIES CUTTING ARMENIA TRIP SHORT

Ontario Now
Oct 23 2007
Canada

Baghdad (EON) – Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has denied
that he cut his visit to Armenia, which had him negotiating in Rome
in regards to the nuclear programs of Iran.

He returned home from Yerevan on Tuesday and stated that "The trip
to Armenia took longer than what was scheduled before."

"The trip was due to last 22 hours but because of some visits, it
became one hour and a half longer than the schedule."

He also stated that the talks went well as the cooperation between
the states and the relationship between the raised quite a bit.

Iran’s new nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili was in Rome for the first
talks in regards to the nuclear standoff with European Union foreign
policy chief Javier Solana.

The president of Armenia’s spokesman Viktor Sogomonian stated that
the Iranian president returned home for "urgent reasons."

All in Iran though are stating that "the Iranian delegation is
returning to Tehran at the planned time."

Washington Times
Embassy Row

October 23, 2007

James Morrison – Turkey’s message

The Turkish ambassador returned to Washington yesterday after being
recalled 10 days earlier to consult with his superiors over growing
tensions with the United States, especially in the Democrat-controlled
Congress.

Ambassador Nabi Sensoy promised to express the anger of the Turkish
government over a congressional resolution that accuses Turkey of
genocide against Armenians nearly 100 years ago. He also plans to talk
with administration officials about the U.S. failure to prevent
Kurdish terrorist attacks on Turkish forces from positions inside the
Kurdish-controlled areas of northern Iraq.

"My most important message will be to explain the great disappointment
and frustration that the developments over the Armenian resolution
caused among the Turkish people," he told reporters at the Ataturk
Airport in Istanbul before boarding a flight to New York.

"I will convey the sensitivities of [President Abdullah Gul] and the
government officials to them once again. I will tell them of Turkey’s
expectations and the serious troubles that any further move in this
process will cause in Turkish-U.S. and other relations."

Turkey, a key NATO ally, allows the United States to use an air base
to resupply troops in Iraq.

Mr. Sensoy added that the Armenian issue might resolve itself because
of a surprising revolt among some House Democrats against Speaker
Nancy Pelosi, who has many Armenian-Americans in her San Francisco
congressional district.

Mrs. Pelosi, who pushed the resolution, is reconsidering whether to
schedule the measure for a full House vote, after reports surfaced
that as many as 60 Democrats would vote against it.

"Indeed, as far as I see, there has been a reversal of the wind," the
ambassador said.

Turkey concedes that the Ottoman Empire killed Armenians in fighting
beginning in 1915 but rejects claims of genocide. Armenia accuses the
Turks of slaughtering more than 1.5 million innocent Armenians.

Turkey also is angered over continued attacks by Kurdish terrorists
>From positions inside northern Iraq.

Asked about the attacks, Mr. Sensoy said, "The Foreign Ministry and
the government will take necessary measures. I will act in accordance
with my instructions."

Turkey yesterday continued moving troops toward its border with Iraq,
as the State Department urged restraint and announced a "diplomatic
full-court press" to prevent a clash that could further destabilize
Iraq.

King Khan

The president of Mongolia yesterday endorsed his ambassador’s campaign
to erect a statue in Washington to Genghis Khan, one of the most
reviled and revered warlords in history.

"You must understand, he was not just a warrior. He was a statesman,"
Nambaryn Enkhbayar told editors and reporters from The Washington
Times at Blair House, the presidential guest quarters across from the
White House.

Mr. Enkhbayar, who met with President Bush yesterday, said Ambassador
Ravdan Bold is negotiating for the purchase of land near the Mongolian
Embassy on M Street Northwest as a site for the statue.

"It would be good to have a location here," Mr. Enkhbayar said.

The embassy is trying to get D.C. Mayor Adrian M. Fenty to endorse the project.

Genghis, who conquered of much Asia and parts of Europe in the 13th
century, ruled over a massive empire that tolerated different
religions and encouraged trade, according to historians. While
Mongolians regard him as the father of their nation, Genghis also is
known for brutal military campaigns.

– Call Embassy Row at 202/636-3297, fax 202/832-7278 or e-mail
jmorrison@washington times.com.

Source: REIGN02/110230069

CFR
Daily Analysis

If Turkey Invades

October 22, 2007

Author: Lee Hudson Teslik

Turkey removed a major legislative hurdle blocking an invasion into
northern Iraq with an October 18 parliamentary vote authorizing raids
(Turkish Daily News). Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
cautioned that the vote would not necessarily translate to an
invasion, but analysts did not seem too reassured, particularly after
an ambush (BBC) of Turkish troops by Kurdish separatists incited
crisis talks in Ankara on October 21. While U.S. and Iraqi officials
alike warn Turkey not to invade, CFR’s Steven A. Cook says in a
podcast that a controversial vote by a U.S. congressional panel,
deeming the slaughter of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in World War I a
"genocide," may have given Turkey the political catalyst needed to
launch an invasion. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice responded
to the ambush by asking Erdogan to hold off for a few days before
launching any ground attacks, and the New York Times reports Turkish
officials agreed to the request. But the pause did not quell the
drumbeat of "what ifs," and analysts focused their attentions on what
the fallout might be if Turkey follows through with cross-border
raids.

Most experts say the after-effects of an invasion would depend largely
on the scale of the attack and how it is carried out. Iraq’s Foreign
Minister Hoshyar Zebari has indicated he prefers limited air attacks
(Gulf Daily News) on Kurdish targets to full-on land raids. Iraqi and
U.S. leaders say a Turkish ground attack would work to destabilize
Iraq’s north, currently one of the less volatile regions in the
country. In a recent interview with CFR.org, the Kurdish head of
foreign affairs in Iraq expresses hope the issue can be solved
politically. The tension is particularly awkward (FT) for the United
States, which finds itself stuck between a political ally in Turkey
and a tactical ally in Iraq’s Kurds. Given the fragility of the
current situation, Iraq’s foreign minister said in a recent statement
that the effects of an invasion could ripple (VOA) well beyond
northern Iraq, destabilizing the entire region.

Should this happen, one major casualty might be Iraq’s nascent
government, which already struggles to keep order in a country fraught
with ethnic tension. As a new Backgrounder explains, some U.S.
officials are calling for schemes to manage Iraq’s regions
separately – though these plans meet a contentious response from many
Iraqi leaders. CFR President Emeritus Leslie H. Gelb says in an
interview that a federalized Iraqi government remains the best way to
"maintain harmony" among Iraq’s sects. Kurds in recent years have been
able to mediate between Iraq’s Sunni and Shiite factions, and analysts
worry that if they become embroiled in violence, their ability to do
this will be compromised.

It remains to be seen whether Turkey will actually invade Iraq, or if
authorizing raids simply represents a bargaining chip. Turkey has
again called on the U.S. to seize Kurdish separatist fighters, and
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the U.S. needs to do more on
this front. Either way, intense diplomacy has broken out in an effort
to stave off bloodshed. On October 19, Kurdish Iraqis held protests
(NYT) in an effort to coax Turkey not to attack. Meanwhile, the
Economist argues the best hope for preventing a crisis may lie not in
getting Turkey to sympathize with Iraqis or Americans, but in getting
Ankara to better understand its own interests. "With luck," the
article says, Turkey "will recognize that a full-blown invasion of
northern Iraq would damage its interests and further inflame Kurdish
separatists."

Source: ades.html?breadcrumb=%2Fbios%2F12286%2Flee_hudson_ teslik