Author: Kajoyan Gevork

TURKEY THREATENS MORE SANCTIONS AGAINST FRANCE

Monsters & Critics.com

Jan 23 2012

Istanbul – Turkey threatened France with more sanctions Monday if it
adopts a bill would make it a crime to deny that Armenians suffered
genocide at the hand of Ottoman Turks during World War I.

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the next steps had already been
prepared, and warned Paris not to underestimate Ankara’s resoluteness,
the Anadolu news agency reported. He spoke just before the French
Senate was due to debate the bill.

Turkey denies that the deaths of large numbers of Armenians constitute
genocide.

The lower house of the French parliament has already adopted the bill.

Ankara reacted to that vote by reducing military and business
cooperation with France. Turkish media reported the next steps might
be sanctions against French institutions operating in Turkey.

KARABAKH SETTLEMENT BROUGHT CLOSER

Voice of Russia
Jan 23 2012

Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Serge Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev,
have moved closer to finding a solution to the separation conflict
in Nagorny Karabakh, an Armenian-populated enclave inside Azerbaijan
which made a bid for complete independence in the late 1980s.

They said this in a joint statement Monday after emerging from their
tenth meeting with the President of Russia, which took place in Sochi
at a seaside residence of Dmitry Medvedev.

Both thanked Russia, France and the United States for their mediation
in the Karabakh conflict. In 1994, Russia was instrumental in bringing
about a ceasefire in Nagorny Karabakh.

FRANCE RISKS ‘PERMANENT’ TURKEY IRE WITH GENOCIDE LAW VOTE

Expatica France

Jan 23 2012

French senators vote Monday on a bill to outlaw denial of the Armenian
genocide. a move that a furious Turkey has vowed to punish with
“permanent” sanctions if it is passed into law.

The French lower house last month approved the bill which threatens
with jail anyone who denies that the 1915 massacre of Armenians by
Ottoman Turk forces amounted to genocide, drawing a first wave of
Turkish ire.

Ankara froze political and military ties with France and has promised
further measures if the measure is passed by the Senate or is approved
by President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose right-wing UMP party put forward
the bill.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Saturday repeated Ankara’s
fierce opposition to the bill which he said would result in “permanent
sanctions”, saying it goes against European values and would not help
Turkish-Armenian relations

“There will be more sanctions and this time, the sanctions will be
permanent, until the change in French position,” he said.

“It is time for French intellectuals, for French senators to defend
our common values, freedom of expression. These are European, French
values. This is against these values”.

Around 15,000 Turks from France, Belgium, the Netherlands and
Luxembourg rallied peacefully on the streets of Paris on Saturday to
protest the law.

Davutoglu cancelled a trip to Brussels on Monday to brief EU foreign
ministers on his visit to Tehran before they vote further sanctions
over Iran’s nuclear drive, saying he wanted to follow the French vote.

In a bid to defuse the crisis, Sarkozy sent a conciliatory letter to
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, released by the French
embassy in Ankara on Friday.

“I hope we can make reason prevail and maintain our dialogue, as befits
allied and friendly countries,” Sarkozy wrote, adding that the measure
“is in no way aimed at any state or people in particular.”

He expressed the wish that Turkey “assess the common interests which
unite our two countries and our two peoples.”

But the bill has not won universal support in the government, where
some ministers fear it will hurt diplomatic and trade ties with a
NATO ally and major economic partner.

Even Sarkozy’s Foreign Minister Alain Juppe has admitted the bill is
“untimely”.

A Senate Laws Commission on Wednesday rejected the bill, but their
vote is not expected to prevent the bill becoming law.

Armenians say up to 1.5 million of their forebears were killed in
1915 and 1916 by the forces of Turkey’s former Ottoman Empire.

Turkey disputes the figure, arguing that only 500,000 died, and denies
this was genocide, ascribing the toll to fighting and starvation during
World War I and accusing the Armenians of siding with Russian invaders.

France recognised the killings as a genocide in 2001, but the new
bill would go further, by punishing anyone who denies this with a
year in jail and a fine of 45,000 euros ($57,000).

Modern Turkey is extremely sensitive about the issue, and has accused
France of attacking freedom of expression and free historical enquiry.

France is home to an estimated 500,000 citizens of Armenian descent,
and Sarkozy’s UMP has been accused of backing the law in order
to pander to a key electoral demographic three months ahead of a
presidential election.

FRANCE RISKS TURKEY ANGER WITH GENOCIDE LAW VOTE

StarAfrica.com

Jan 23 2012

French senators vote Monday on a bill to outlaw denial of the Armenian
genocide, a move that a…

French senators vote Monday on a bill to outlaw denial of the Armenian
genocide, a move that a furious Turkey has vowed it would punish with
“permanent” sanctions if it is passed into law.

The French lower house drew a first wave of Turkish ire last month,
when it approved the bill which threatens with jail anyone in France
who denies that the 1915 massacre of Armenians by Ottoman Turk forces
amounted to genocide.

Ankara froze political and military ties with France and has promised
further measures if the measure is passed by the Senate or is approved
by President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose right-wing UMP party put forward
the bill.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who cancelled talks with
European Union foreign ministers in Brussels on Iran’s nuclear drive
to deal with the crisis, said that Ankara had already prepared its
response.

“We have previously determined the steps to be taken if the bill is
finally adopted. No one should doubt it,” state-run Anatolia news
agency quoted Davutoglu as saying.

“Turkey is no longer the Turkey of 2001,” Davutoglu said, referring to
the year when the French parliament recognized the Armenian genocide
under the Ottoman rule.

Davutoglu said Saturday that the law would result in “permanent
sanctions,” that it went against European values and would not help
Turkish-Armenian relations.

Around 15,000 Turks from France, Belgium, The Netherlands and
Luxembourg rallied peacefully on the streets of Paris on Saturday to
protest the law.

Turks and Armenians have vowed to stage demonstrations outside the
Senate ahead of the debate, set for Monday afternoon, with police
keeping them some distance apart.

In a bid to defuse the crisis, Sarkozy sent a conciliatory letter to
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, released by the French
embassy in Ankara on Friday.

“I hope we can make reason prevail and maintain our dialogue, as befits
allied and friendly countries,” Sarkozy wrote, adding that the measure
“is in no way aimed at any state or people in particular.”

But the bill has not won universal support in the government, where
some ministers fear it will hurt diplomatic and trade ties with a
NATO ally and major economic partner.

Even Sarkozy’s Foreign Minister Alain Juppe has admitted the bill is
“untimely.”

A Senate Laws Commission on Wednesday rejected the bill, but their
vote is not expected to prevent it from becoming law.

Armenians say up to 1.5 million of their forebears were killed in
1915 and 1916 by the forces of Turkey’s former Ottoman Empire.

Turkey disputes the figure, arguing that only 500,000 died, and denies
this was genocide, ascribing the toll to fighting and starvation during
World War I and accusing the Armenians of siding with Russian invaders.

France has already recognised the killings as a genocide, but the
new bill would go further, by punishing anyone who denies this with
a year in jail and a fine of 45,000 euros ($57,000).

Modern Turkey is extremely sensitive about the issue, and has accused
France of attacking freedom of expression and free historical enquiry.

France is home to an estimated 600,000 citizens of Armenian descent,
including 400,000 who can vote. Sarkozy’s UMP has been accused of
backing the law in order to pander to a key electoral demographic
three months ahead of a presidential election.

FRANCE TO VOTE ON ARMENIA ‘GENOCIDE’ BILL

Al Jazeera
Jan 23 2012
Qatar

Turkey warns French senate to reject bill that would make it illegal
to deny mass killings by Ottoman Turks in 1915.

French senators are set to vote on a bill that would make it illegal
to deny that the mass killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks nearly
a century ago amounted to genocide.

Members of the French upper house were expected to debate the bill
on Monday, nearly a month after the French national assembly voted
overwhelmingly in favour of the draft law.

The scheduled vote prompted an angry response from Turkey, which has
vowed to punish the move with “permanent” sanctions if it is passed
into law.

Ankara froze political and military ties with France after the lower
house vote and it promised further measures if the measure is passed
by the senate or is approved by President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose
right-wing UMP party put forward the bill.

Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish foreign minister, on Saturday repeated
Ankara’s opposition to the bill, saying it went against European
values and would not help Turkish-Armenian relations.

“There will be more sanctions and this time, the sanctions will be
permanent, until the change in French position,” he said.

“It is time for French intellectuals, for French senators to defend
our common values, freedom of expression. These are European, French
values. This is against these values.”

Heightening tensions

Around 15,000 Turks from France, Belgium, the Netherlands and
Luxembourg rallied on the streets of Paris on Saturday to protest
against the law.

Davutoglu cancelled a trip to Brussels on Monday to brief EU foreign
ministers on his visit to Tehran before they were due to vote on
further sanctions against Iran, saying he wanted to follow the
French vote.

In a bid to defuse the crisis, Sarkozy sent a conciliatory letter
to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, released by the
French embassy in Ankara on Friday.

“I hope we can make reason prevail and maintain our dialogue, as
befits allied and friendly countries,” Sarkozy wrote, adding that
the measure was “in no way aimed at any state or people in particular”.

Erdogan, however, accused Sarkozy of using the vote to pursue
electoral gains.

“We cannot understand how Sarkozy can sacrifice a decision that should
be made by historians for his own personal electoral gains. We will
of course take some decisions according to the outcome of the vote
at Senate, ” he said.

“I hope the Senate will not make France a country contradicting its
own values.”

Bernard Valero, a French foreign ministry spokesperson, said that
France was “appeal[ing] for calm” from Turkey over the vote.

‘Untimely’ bill

Sarkozy expressed a wish that Turkey “assess the common interests
which unite our two countries and our two peoples”.

A French senate committee on Wednesday rejected the bill, but their
vote was not expected to prevent the bill becoming law.

The senate’s Commission of Laws voted 23 to nine, with eight
abstentions, that such a bill could violate constitutional protections,
including freedom of speech.

Even if the senate does reject the bill, the more powerful national
assembly could resurrect the bill and try again.

The bill has not won universal support in the government, where some
ministers fear it will hurt diplomatic and trade ties with a NATO
ally and major economic partner.

Sarkozy’s foreign minister, Alain Juppe, has admitted the bill is
“untimely”.

France recognised the killings as genocide in 2001, but the new bill
would go further, by punishing anyone who denies this with a year in
jail and a fine of 45,000 euros ($57,000).

Armenia says that at least 1.5 million Armenians died when Ottoman
Turks deported them from eastern Anatolia to the Syrian desert and
elsewhere in 1915 to 1916. They were killed or died from starvation
or disease.

Turkey estimates the total to be about 300,000. It admits that
atrocities were committed but argues that there was no systematic
attempt to destroy the Armenian people and argues that many people
on both sides died amid the chaos of World War I, in which all sides
suffered.

RUSSIA AND IRAN: UNEASY NEIGHBORS – SINCE THE 16TH CENTURY

Voice of America

Jan 23 2012

Countries without natural borders are like amoebas. Over centuries,
they expand and contract, expand and contract.

As the Western world wonders why Russia has such a nuanced policy
toward Iran’s nuclear program, it is important to skip back over four
centuries of history.

Under Ivan the Terrible, Russia defeated the Tatars and Russia started
to expand east to Siberia and south to the Caspian Sea. There, it
first encountered Persia, forerunner to modern Iran.

Persia’s first ambassador to Russia visited the Kremlin four centuries
ago, in 1592. For the next century, wary coexistence ensued between
the two empires, one Christian, the other Muslim.

Then, in 1722, Russia expanded south again, embarking on the first of
four successful wars against Persia. Steadily, Russia gobbled up chunks
of Persia’s Central Asian Empire. With the 1828 Treaty of Turkemnchay,
the Caspian Sea became a Russian lake.

One author of that treaty was Russia’s new ambassador to Persia,
Alexander Griboyedev, a witty and charming poet and playwright,
recently arrived from the court in St. Petersburg.

But Persian resentment of the treaty boiled over when an Armenian
eunuch escaped from the Shah’s harem and two Armenian girls escaped
from the harem of his son-in-law. Under terms of the new treaty,
Armenians were allowed safe passage from Persia to Russian-controlled
Armenia. Ambassador Griboyedev stood on principle, and protected his
Armenian charges.

What happened next, made the Iranian seizure of the United States
embassy in Tehran in 1979, or the sacking of the British embassy two
months ago, look like tea parties.

A mob of thousands of rioting Persian overwhelmed the Russian Embassy’s
Cossack guards and slaughtered everyone inside. A few days later, the
remains of the eunuch were so disfigured that he was only recognized
by a scar on his hand.

When Griboyedev’s 16-year-old bride, Nino, learned of her husband’s
fate, she became so distraught that she miscarried, and lost their
baby. For the rest of her life, she refused all suitors. Today, a
larger than life Griboyedev statue in Moscow is a popular meeting
point for young people. In St. Petersburg, Griboyedev Canal is a
picturesque waterway in the heart of historic city.

The embassy slaughter may live on in Russian’s popular image of Iran.

But it did not deter the Kremlin, which retained control of Northern
Iran through 1946.

In 1907, with the military rise of Germany, Russia and Britain
decided to stop wasting their energy in their “Great Game” over the
former Persian empire. That year, they signed in St. Petersburg, the
Anglo-Russian Convention. Under this treaty, Persia was divided up
between a northern Russian zone, a central neutral zone governed by a
Shah, and a southern British zone. This allowed Britain to develop oil
deposits in southern Iran and to build a refinery in Abadan. Founded
in 1909, the Anglo-Persian Oil Company grew into what is known today
as BP.

This division continued until August of 1941, when Britain and the
Soviet Union conducted a joint, three-week military campaign and
deposed the pro-German Shah, installed his son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

For the next five years, the two foreign nations to oversaw what had
now come to be called Iran.

In early 1946, the British pulled out, but the Red Army stayed in
Northern Iran well beyond an exit deadline stipulated in the Teheran
Conference of 1943.

By early 1946, the Cold War was starting and Stalin tried to prolong
control over northern Iran by setting up two puppet Soviet republics
and signing a oil treaty with Teheran that gave the Soviet Union
ownership of 51 percent of northern Iran’s oil deposits. But soon after
Red Army troops withdrew from northern Iran, the puppet republics
collapsed. In late 1947, Iran’s parliament refused to ratify the
oil agreement.

With this history in mind, I could barely repress a smile Wednesday
as I sat in the Russian Foreign Ministry’s comfortable new press
auditorium building. Minister Sergei Lavrov, perhaps hoping that no
one in the hall knew history, was sternly warning that interference
in the internal affairs of Iran is “impermissible.”

Here, morality in diplomacy may be dictated by changing realities on
the ground.

Six decades of oil earnings and a swelling young population have
given Iran a powerful military machine. Now, it may be building a
nuclear bomb.

In contrast, the Russian amoeba has retreated. With an aging and
shrinking population, Kremlin power projection has dramatically ebbed
from the Soviet era high water mark.

In the Caspian, post-Soviet Moscow’s control has receded to about 20
percent of the 7,000 km shoreline. And half of the Russia portion is
in Dagestan, where currently the hottest insurgency is underway in
Russia’s Islamic south. Instead of Moscow reaching across the Caspian
to destabilize Northern Iran, Moscow now fears Iran reaching across
the Caspian to destabilize southern Russia.

Last year’s Arab Spring, ended a series of Soviet legacy
relationships. Russian influence in the Mediterranean receded to a
toehold in Tarsus, a naval base on Syria’s coast. Now, Russia seeks
to prop up Syria’s government, its last Arab ally in the Mediterranean.

This month, Russia sent to Syria its last aircraft carrier and fresh
supplies of bullets for Syria’s army. But a large question mark hangs
over the future of Syria.

And the Russian public has little taste in overseas military
entanglement, whether Syria or Iran.

In Central Asia, Russia talks loudly, but acts cautiously, In June
2010, Roza Otunbayeva, then president of Kyrgyzstan, publicly asked
Moscow four times to send troops to end ethnic rioting in Osh.

President Medvedev replied that he would study the matter.

Russia’s political system may be authoritarian. But the Kremlin
keeps its ear close to the ground through an extensive public opinion
polling system.

A weakened military, an aging population, and little popular support
for military adventures – these were not the concerns of Ivan the
Terrible, or of his modern day equivalent, Joseph Stalin.

So, today, as the Russian amoeba retracts, there is no indication
that Russia’s leaders want to tangle with Teheran.

FRENCH SENATE TAKES UP ARMENIAN GENOCIDE BILL

Monsters and Critics.com
Jan 23 2012

Paris – The French Senate was scheduled Monday to debate a bill that
would make it a crime to deny that Armenians suffered genocide at
the hand of Ottoman Turks during World War I.

The lower house of parliament has already adopted the bill, which
punishes denial of genocides recognized by France by up to a year in
prison and 45,000 euros (57,000 dollars) in fines.

France officially recognizes two genocides: the Nazi Holocaust of
Jews during World War II – the denial of which is already punishable
by law – and the killing of hundreds of thousands of Armenians in
eastern Turkey between 1915 and 1917.

Turkey denies the massacres of Armenians were genocide, saying that
there was no systematic policy to destroy the Christian Armenian
community and that many Muslim Turks also died in the violence.

Ankara suspended contact with Paris after lawmakers in the National
Assembly overwhelmingly adopted the bill in December.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, in an interview with France
24 television at the weekend, warned of stepped-up sanctions if the
Senate also voted in favour.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has accused French
President Nicolas Sarkozy of using the bill to try to win the support
of France’s small but influential Armenian community ahead of this
year’s presidential and parliamentary elections.

Before becoming president in 2007 Sarkozy promised the Armenian
community to push through legislation banning genocide denial.

GERMANY, TOO, MUST RECOGNIZE ITS RESPONSIBILITY IN ARMENIAN GENOCIDE – GERMAN MP

news.am
January 24, 2012 | 11:02

YEREVAN. – Annette Groth, German MP and head of the Left Group (Die
Linke) at the German Bundestag’s (Parliament) Committee for Human
Rights and Humanitarian Aid, gave comments to Armenian News-NEWS.am
concerning France’s bill that criminalizes the denial of genocides,
including the Armenian Genocide.

“Die Linke is trying in every way to contribute to the democratization
of Turkish policy and the reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey.

The Group criticizes the Turkish government’s demeanor with respect to
the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire. Reconciliation between
the two countries will be difficult without justice. It is important
for Die Linke that the German Bundestag likewise recognize the German
Empire’s responsibility in the Armenian Genocide issue. We believe
Germany must apologize for the assistance in, and the deliberate
permission for, the Genocide. Turkish society’s critical revision of
history is an important prerequisite for today’s Turkey to be able
to conduct another policy in the minorities’ issue. We are convinced
that Turkey’s acknowledgment of the Armenian Genocide is the primary
important condition which will contribute to the development of
democratic traditions and learning of lessons from history,” Annette
Groth specifically said.

To note, with a vote of 127 in favor and 86 against, France’s Senate
passed Monday the bill that criminalizes the denial of the genocides
which this country has formally recognized. And these are the Armenian
Genocide and the Jewish Holocaust. This bill sets a one-year prison
sentence plus a 45-thousand-Euro fine for anyone who denies these
genocides. According to the regulations, the French President will
ratify it within fifteen days. And Turkey had announced earlier
that if the bill were to pass, it will impose a number of sanctions
against France.

TURKEY WARNS OF INCREASED REACTION TO FRENCH DENIAL BILL, READIES MEASURES

Today’s Zaman
Jan 23 2012

The French Senate votes on the controversial

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned hours before a French
Senate debate on a denial bill that runs a high risk of wrecking
Turkish-French ties that the bill could provoke reactions from
“hundreds of thousands” if it passes through the senate, pledging
Turkey would reciprocate a senate approval in its own determined
fashion.

“We see tens of thousands of our brothers, our kin, gathered in
Paris, which proves how strong a reaction the bill will receive
[in the event it passes as law],” Erdogan told reporters on Monday,
referencing demonstrations in France over the weekend against the
denial bill the French Senate was scheduled to debate later on
Monday. The denial bill seeks punishment for anyone who refuses to
term the killings of Armenians in 1915 by Ottoman Turk as genocide,
on the grounds that such a rejection is equal to making racist and
xenophobic remarks and can spark hatred in French society.

Contrary to the French argument, Turkey has been fighting the bill,
saying that such a move would mean blocking freedom of expression in
France and take away Turks’ right to defend their ancestors against
the alleged crime of genocide, a claim Turkey takes as an insult to
its identity.

“The issue they [the French Senate] are debating now is foremost
in denial of freedoms France has laid a claim on up until today,”
Erdogan was quoted by the Anatolia news agency as telling reporters,
as he suggested the bill would also be contradictory to human rights
and could spark demonstrations from “hundreds of thousands of people,”
who would react to the French move.

The Turkish prime minister also announced Turkey had “decisions to
make in response to the decision the French Senate is going to make
today,” signaling Turkey is readying to counter the French move with
measures if it passes through the French Senate.

Erdogan may not visit France if bill passes In response to reporters’
questions, Erdogan raised the possibility on Monday that his future
visits to France might fall under question in the event the bill
passes as law in France. A day prior to Erdogan’s remarks, Deputy
Prime Minister Bulent Arınc speculated the French bill could
jeopardize visits from senior Turkish officials to France. Arınc
rhetorically asked what French officials would do if Erdogan said,
“1915 is not genocide,” during a visit to France. French President
Nicolas Sarkozy noted in a recent letter he sent to Erdogan that the
law would only affect French citizens and be applicable in France,
to dismiss speculations senior Turkish officials might fall victim
to the controversial bill during their visits to France.

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu also warned France on Monday Turkey
is ready to take new measures against Paris, in a last-ditch push to
fend off the bill that would make it a crime to deny the killing of
Armenians by Ottoman Turks was genocide.

Turkey briefly recalled its ambassador to Paris and suspended military,
economic and political ties when the bill was passed in France’s
lower house last month. Forty-thousand Turks from all over Europe
gathered in Paris on Saturday to raise their voice against the Senate
debate, hoping the Senate might drop the bill off the agenda or vote
against it.

A new era of Inquisition will be opened in Europe Speaking to reporters
on Monday before the French Senate session that has the power to
define the outcome of an “Armenian genocide” controversy, Davutoglu
said his country has already planned out potential measures. “The
steps we will take in case the bill passes as law have already been
determined,” Davutoglu was quoted as saying by Anatolia, but he did
not elaborate on what those steps might include.

“Turkey will continue to implement sanctions as long as this bill
remains on the table,” Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu
stated. “We hope, however, this won’t be necessary, and common sense
will reign in the French Senate.”

The foreign minister had earlier voiced late Sunday evening Turkey’s
determination to respond to the bill, saying his country would take
“new and permanent” measures against France in the event French
senators do not reject the bill. His message appeared to be a
response to critics who claimed Turkey vowed measures against France
in 2001 when the French Senate recognized the incidents of 1915 as
“Armenian genocide” perpetrated by Ottoman Turks, but they didn’t
amount to anything. “Turkey is not what it was in 2001,” he noted,
with clear reference to his ruling Justice and Development Party’s
(AK Party) assumption of leadership of Turkish politics in 2003,
which changed the way the country behaved.

Similarly, AK Party Deputy Chairman Omer Celik said on Monday measures
against France would be permanent, not temporary, if the bill passes.

Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag also stated, “It is clear relations
between Turkey and France will not be the same,” Anatolia reported.

Meanwhile, the European Democratic and Social Rally (RDSE) in
the French Senate defined the bill as “dangerous and unnecessary,”
Anatolia reported on Monday. RDSE’s group chairman Jacques Mézard
and member Jean-Michel Baylet held a joint press conference on Monday
and said they would vote “no” on the bill.

The bill sets a punishment of up to one year in prison and a fine
of 45,000 euros for those who deny or “outrageously minimize” the
killings — putting such action on par with denial of the Holocaust.

France formally recognized the 1915 killings as genocide in 2001 but
provided no penalty for anyone who rejected it.

Turkey maintains there was no systematic campaign to kill Armenians
and that many Turks also died during the chaotic disintegration of
the Ottoman Empire.

Turkey has argued the bill would compromise freedom of expression
in France.

“European values are under threat,” Davutoglu said Monday. “If each
parliament takes decisions containing its own views of history and
implements them, a new era of Inquisition will be opened in Europe.”

“Those who voice views that exclude this view of history will be
jailed,” he said. “It would, unfortunately, be a great shame for
France to revive this.”

WHAT WILL GEORGIA FACE IN CASE OF WAR IN IRAN?

by Eka Basilaia

Rezonansi
Jan 19 2012
Georgia

“In fact, in two week’s time, we might be witnessing US military action
against Iran,” expert Igor Korotchenko, a member of the Russian Defence
Ministry Public Council Presidium, predicted. For the second time,
experts of the Russian government specify the date of the attack
on Iran. At the end of 2011, high-ranking officials of the Russian
Foreign Ministry claimed that that they were informed about the date
Israel and the United States were starting an attack.

Georgia to face “extremely difficult” situation

According to Georgian experts, the two-week period is not realistic.

However, everyone expects war to start this year, and as expert in
Caucasus issues Mamuka Areshidze said, it will place Georgia in an
extremely difficult situation. On the one hand, it might become a
logistic base for the attack – airfields and hospitals, which contains
elements of danger. On the other hand, Russia will by all means aim to
demonstrate its strength in the South Caucasus and might even carry
out a land military operation to establish communications with the
Gyumri base [in Armenia].

There has been a smell of gunpowder regarding the situation around
Iran since the very first days of 2012. At the beginning of the year,
several scientists involved in the nuclear programme were killed
in a terrorist attack. According to the Iranian government, their
scientists are being hunted by the Israeli and US special services,
but this will not stop their programme.

Since then, preventive statements between the conflicting sides have
become increasingly sharp. The Iranian side has started speaking
about blocking the Hormuz Strait. Pentagon head Leon Panetta told BBC
that the United States will not agree to blocking the Hormuz Strait,
adding that Washington will be ready to carry out serious forceful
measures against Iran.

The Pentagon head noted once again that in case Iran creates nuclear
weapons, Washington will have to take retaliatory measures. I think
Tehran should know that in case it starts the procedure, it will be
stopped, the high-ranking US official said.

Russia taking measures in view of increasing US military presence
in Gulf

According the Russian expert, the United States is openly increasing
its military potential in the Gulf.

“Soon, another US aircraft carrier is going to enter the Gulf. And
the US aircraft carriers never sail to places alone. They are always
escorted by other vessels including a couple of multifunctional
submarines,” Igor Korotchenko said.

In addition to this, Russia did not rule out its participation in
the conflict in case Israel and the United States launch an attack on
Iran. According to the [Russian] Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper, given
the probability, the General Staff of the Russian Defence Ministry is
working on a plan for the Kavkaz large-scale military drills, which,
unlike those carried out in previous years, is going to be strategic
rather than operational or tactical.

As Mamuka Areshidze put it, “if Georgia becomes involved in the
military operation, irrespective of the kind of involvement, it is sure
to experience extreme difficulties. According to certain assessments,
Georgia is going to be used as a logistical supply base – airfields
and hospitals – and this already contains elements of danger. Although
the result is going to be unpleasant, it is going to be minor compared
with measures Russia might carry out”.

According to him [Areshidze], the Russian war engine is today
half-ready to become involved in the processes taking place in Iran
or at least to demonstrate strength. The efficiency of the strength
is a different issue, but something like this can happen.

Mamuka Areshidze: “Today, [Russia’s] Caspian Fleet is completely
mobilized and aims to defend the Caspian sector controlled at present
by Iran. All the missile ships have been mobilized there. On the other
hand, the only Russian aircraft carrier Kuznetsov has already entered
the Tartus military base in Syria. According to unverified reports,
the aircraft carrier is escorted by several Russian nuclear submarines.

“All this means that the Russian military preparations are under way.

In addition to this, military exercises are getting started. Despite
the fact that Kavkaz 2012 is due in September and the 149th and 153rd
armies stationed on either sides of the Caucasus mountain ridge are
not yet in fighting order, the development of processes requires
that they be in fighting order by September. We should not rule out
that the 2012 exercises are a disguise and both armies are in full
readiness. One thing I know for sure is that an additional contingent
of military men fulfilling unimportant duties has been withdrawn from
the Gyumri base. Apart from this, some of the military men have been
moved to the Iran-Armenia border.

Russia to attempt creating corridor via Georgian territory

“We should not rule out that if a military attack is launched on Iran,
Russia will want to create a corridor between the Gyumri base and
so-called South Ossetia through Borjomi and Javakheti [regions of
Georgia]. The Georgian leadership will not allow Russia to transport
military cargoes via Georgian air or land. Such a scenario is quite
possible.

“Russia is not likely to directly support Iran. But in case of an
attack, Russia will reportedly start consolidating its positions in
the South Caucasus. Russia is not satisfied with its current position
in the South Caucasus. In case the US influence on Iran increases,
Russia will lose South Caucasus, Armenia in first place, which it is
not going to accept.

“It is rather difficult to predict what is going to happen. We are
in the geopolitical centre, but on the information periphery. That is
why I find it difficult to say whether an attack on Iran is going to
start in two weeks or four weeks. However, conclusions of many experts
make it clear that in May, Iran is sure to have nuclear weapons. That
is why, I think that it is highly likely that the attack will start
before May, and it is Israel that will start the operation, not the
United Sates.”

According to him [Areshidze], what matters is that the general,
who was one of the heads of the Iranian nuclear programme was killed.

Several other persons of the same kind were also killed, and all this
happened at an Iranian military base. I do not know whether these
murders will hinder the programme or not”.

Russia “only problem” for Georgia

According to military expert Giorgi Tavdgiridze, “there are no threats
for Georgia coming from Iran. However, there is a danger coming from
the Russian side. There is a danger that Russia will try to get hold
of Georgian communications and get big dividends from the conflict
by bargaining with the United States”.

Giorgi Tavdgiridze: “The only problem is Russia, which is making
statements , threatening that it is not going to stand idle in case
Israel and the United States start any type of operation against Iran.

Russia says so, but does not specify what particular measures it is
going to take or how it is going to support Iran. The only statement
we are aware of is that Russia is planning large-scale military drills
Kavkaz 2012. We have been informed indirectly that Russia is going
to bring its war engine to fighting order and put political pressure
on the West.

“We can presume that in case Russia decides to give Iran not only
verbal support but a real one, too, it will find it necessary to have
land communications with its outpost closest to Iran – the Gyumri
base in Armenia. That is why there is strong likelihood that it will
carry out a military operation to control the Georgian Military Road
[connecting Russia with east Georgia] and the communications between
Russia and Armenia. This is just likely and I doubt that Russia will
dare to give military support to Iran. Russia has no potential to do
so. However, it might become possible, if we do nothing and if the
political situation gets destabilized. In case there is [appropriate]
political background for Russia to embark on an adventure like this,
there is every likelihood that Russia will try to get hold of Georgian
communications, bargain with the United States as equal and get rather
big dividends from the conflict.

[translated from Georgian]