Author: Jalatian Sonya

Can Armenia-Turkey protocols be ratified separately?
A possible soft-exit strategy for rapprochement process
by Hovhannes Nikoghosyan

Published: Tuesday February 23, 2010
icle/2010-02-23-can-armenia-turkey-protocols-be-ra tified-separately&pg=2

Washington – The Armenian-Turkish-Swiss trilateral joint statement
agreed on April 2 and issued on April 22 underscored the commitment by
ruling elites of two nations to normalization of relations by
addressing core issues of misunderstanding.

Despite widespread pessimism over the rapprochement, initialed
protocols were published on September 1, 2009 and the two documents
were signed in Zurich on October 10 2009, with mediation from the
United States.

The protocols have since been sent to parliaments for ratification. In
Armenia they also went through Constitutional Court, which issued a
legal blessing on January 12.

It would seem that all that is needed now is political will to take
the last step in legislatures to ratify the documents. But having gone
all this way, the sides are now discussing exit strategies.

Considering that the Armenian-Turkish process has been driven by a
series of "midnight" decisions, there may well be more such progress
assuming no extraordinary military-political crises occur.

Since the Constitutional Court ruling, Turkey together with her lesser
ally Azerbaijan appear to be diplomatically isolated. Turkish efforts
to link Nagorno Karabakh settlement with the normalization issue have
not been successful. While they recognize the linkage between those
two issues, Armenian officials say that they should be mutually
reinforcing rather than conditioning one another.

In this light, the only counter-argument Turkey can raise in order to
force the United States to back its position is Turkey’s alleged
indispensability as NATO ally in Middle East. (On the other hand, few
remember that Turkish economy is dependent upon World Bank and IMF for
the country’s government to commit any real anti-Western moves.)

Since the beginning of the process parties have been changing their
rhetoric quite often. Turkish side has been harsh by default, but
their deeds not always reflect the actual steps, in a positive sense.

On the contrary, Armenian president Serge Sargsyan’s rhetoric has gone
from positive and optimistic in the beginning, to "if we don’t try we
don’t win"-like justifications more recently. President Sargsyan’s
initiative to amend the legal background for recalling the signature
under the protocols was thought to prepare the exit strategy.

Draft amendments to Armenia’s Law on International Treaties now have
been put on the agenda of the Parliament. A new (draft) Article 38.1
will entitle the president to recall or suspend the signature under
the international treaty practically at any stage of contracting or
ratification.

Nearly simultaneously with the amendments on rescission, the protocols
were also submitted for ratification. Being so close to ratification,
the protocols my remain unratified indefinitely.

Technically, since both president Sargsyan and Turkish leader Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan hold majorities in the parliaments, the
ratification process initially was thought to be functional.

But as Mr. Erdogan suggested he could not guarantee a successful
outcome and, moreover, did not expect one unless there was "progress"
on Karabakh talks.

By contrast, the Armenian president has guaranteed a successful vote
if Turkey agreed to ratify first. Most recently, some of the ruling
party MPs even suggested proceeding with ratification before Turkey,
which showed certain disagreement in the ruling party in Yerevan.

But if it does come to ratification, will the protocols be ratified
together, or one-by-one?

When I put this question to Vigen Sargsyan, Armenian president’s
foreign policy aide who recently spoke at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, argued it was not feasible
to proceed with the one protocol in the absence of another. The
protocols are interlinked and their separate ratification would harm
the essence and substance of the agreements, making it impossible to
make further progress.

All the same, that does not necessarily mean that the protocols could
not be considered separately.

In fact, to this day it has not been explained why there are two
protocols instead of one, single, integrated document about the whole
complex of issues.

The protocol on diplomatic relations speaks about exchanging
diplomatic missions and only "the decision to open the common border",
which has no time limits for implementation and is not formulated in a
legally binding manner.

All the sub-commissions and the border opening with specific
timeframes are embodied in the second protocol on development of
relations.

It may well be that the recent Turkish criticism of the Armenian
Constitutional Court’s decision on January 12, charging Armenia with
undermining the spirit of the protocols may be followed by Ankara
moving to ratify only one of the two protocols.

International law, more specifically the Vienna Convention on the Law
of Treaties (1969), foresees no mechanisms (unless mentioned in the
actual texts of treaties) regarding ratification of the signed
agreements in a timely manner, except for the good faith and political
goodwill of the states. And the protocols themselves do not set out
any order for ratification.

The second protocol says that both documents "shall enter into force
on the same day, i.e. on the first day of the first month following
the exchanges of instruments of ratification". Armenia’s
Constitutional Court added its interpretation that "either protocol
cannot acquire legal force or take effect without the other".

Nevertheless, theoretically they can be ratified separately, whenever
the parties have enough political will for each, and only when both
are ratified they can enter into force.

Certainly, the Armenian side’s main interest is to have the border
with Turkey open rather than to establish yet another diplomatic
mission. (Even without diplomatic relations, an Armenian diplomat has
been working in Istanbul via the Black Sea Economic Cooperation
organization.)
But the Armenian side might agree to separation of protocols and thus
preservation of the normalization process should Turkey offer firm
guarantees about a reasonable timeframe for border opening, say before
the end of the first term of Sargsyan presidency in February 2013.

Alternatively, should Turkey fail to ratify the protocols, Armenia
might rescind the protocols postponing ratification until after
Turkish general elections due in 2011, and possibly also after the
next Armenian presidential elections.

PRESS RELEASE
Glendale Public Library
222 East Harvard Street
Glendale CA 91205
Tel: 818-548-2030
Web:

Please join us at the Glendale Public Library Auditorium, for the
presentation of

My Dear Brother: Armenians in Turkey 100 Years Ago

Historic postcards documenting the lives of Armenians throughout the
Ottoman Empire in 1900-1910.

At Glendale Public Library Auditorium, 222 East Harvard Street,

On Thursday, March 18, 2010 at 7pm. Admission is free.

For more information please check the attachment.

Thanks,

Elizabeth Grigorian
Armenian Outreach/Glendale Public Library
[email protected]
(818)548-3288

CHIEF PROSECUTOR VOWS TO PROTEST IF PASHINYAN IS NOT PARDONED

/24/aghvan-hovsepyan
05:59 pm | February 24, 2010

Politics

RA Prosecutor General Aghvan Hovsepyan announced today that an amnesty
for Haykakan Zhamanak daily Editor Nikol Pashinyan would be granted
only after the case had gone through the upper instances and a final
verdict had been reached.

"An amnesty is a statutory requirement but not at this stage. Only
when we have a final verdict and sentence of the Appellate Court or the
Cassation Court, shall an amnesty be granted. If it isn’t granted, the
Prosecutor’s Office will dispute the matter," announced Mr. Hovsepyan.

Remind that a Yerevan court had sentenced Nikol Pashinyan to seven
years’ imprisonment. On February 19 Pashinyan’s advocates took the
case to the Court of Appeals.

In reply to A1+ whether the Prosecutor’s Office had taken any measures
to disclose the events of March 1-2, Mr. Hovsepyan said they had done
everything possible to disclose the criminals. "If you take and study
the pretrial cases you will see that large-scale work has been done
in this direction," said the chief prosecutor.

"We seek public support for the full disclose of the events but so
far we have found no response," he added.

ARMENIAN PRESIDENT SERZH SARGSYAN RECEIVES MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC COUNCIL

646/lang/en
2010-02-24

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 24, ARMENPRESS: Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
received today members of the Public Council who presented to the
leader of the country issues connected with the development of
agriculture and internet quality.

The president said that he is aware of the extended discussions in
the Public Council starting from the process of normalization of the
Armenian Turkish relations up to the improvement of the quality of
TV broadcast. "The essential thing is that these issues pass a wide
discussion. This is an important circumstance as many see that there
are issues in the society: but one thing is to see and another suggest
solutions," the president of the country said.

Chairman of the Public Council Vazgen Manukyan noted that the council
wants to be useful for the public, so that a state based on national
values be built, civil society be formed. For reaching it besides
improving of many laws other issues also exist.

"There are issues of protection of human rights, development of
industry and agriculture. People must be able to work and keep family
with their salary," V. Manukyan said, highlighting also issues of
upbringing and those of educational system.

Referring to the development of agriculture, V. Manukyan noted that the
state support is necessary in this issue. "Without it no agriculture
may develop. We must think how to make agriculture effective and how
to keep the village. We suggest creation of rural cooperative farm,"
V. Manukyan said.

Member of the Public Council Khosrov Harutyunyan noted that since
independence extended investments have been made in the agricultural
sphere, the infrastructures have been upgraded, and particularly
the irrigation systems. According to him, not all investments have
registered enough results in respect of organization of effective
agriculture.

Another member of the Public Council Vladimir Movsissyan noted that
there is an issue of not-usage of certain infrastructures because
of which the invested means are not effective. According to him,
as to developed infrastructures they are not available for farmers.

"The irrigation system is quite developed but the water is not
available. The creation of cooperative is very important but it must
not be overestimated, the economy must develop in a diversified way,"
V. Movsissyan said.

Members of the Public Council also presented to S. Sargsyan the issues
connected with the increase of internet tariffs and its quality. V.

Manukyan noted that in Armenia the internet tariff is several times
higher than in neighboring countries, besides we have an issue of
internet availability.

Member of the Council Hovik Musayelyan noted that there are many
achievements in the IT sector. In the previous year the economy had
14.5% reduction but the IT sector had double digit growth. According
to him, the obstacle to the complete development of the sector is
not the tariff but the quality.

"If the quality of internet is bad we cannot normally export our
product. If in Armenia a product corresponding to international
standards is issued and we cannot export it because of bad quality
of internet it is already a serious issue," H. Musayelyan said.

According to him, the Public Council has adopted a decision which
establishes standards of special quality in case of violation of
which fines will be established.

RA Economy Minister Nerses Yeritsyan noted that the state will
implement a clear policy by establishing certain standards of providing
internet services. In that case certain events will be carried out
from the point of view of protection of interests of consumers.

S. Sargsyan considered the presented issues as very important, noting
that with one, two discussions huge progress cannot be expected.

According to him, the voiced suggestions will be taken into
consideration and the responsible of the spheres will display relevant
approach.

BY THE END OF THE YEAR THE PILOT PROGRAM ON CREATION OF FREE TRADE ZONE IN THE "ZVARTNOTS" AIRPORT TO KICK OFF

lang/en
2010-02-23

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 23, ARMENPRESS: By the end of the year the pilot
program on creation of free trade zone in the "Zvartnots" airport will
kick off. Head of the Armenian Economy Ministry’s Industry Department
Hayk Mirzoyan said today at the meeting with the reporters that the
goal of the program is to increase the volume of export of agricultural
products, promote the increase of productivity of agriculture, applying
new technology as well as formation of Armenian agricultural brand.

According to him, currently preparatory works of the program are in
process. In 2009 expert from "Flora Holland" was invited to Armenia
in 2009. Together with the expert business model of the logistic
center of the free trade zone has been worked out. The organizer of
the free trade zone – the manager of "Zvartnots" airport – together
with the expert and with the support Armenian Development Agency is
working out the business program of the logistic center.

H. Mirzoyan said that with the program it is expected to create a
pilot points for gathering of food so that the farmers quickly store
their product and then sell to the exporters. In the territory of
the airport store and packages points will function.

The head of the department said that 3 points of gathering of the
agricultural products will be created in the airport. Currently works
on creating council coordinating the program are in process. H.

Mirzoyan said that all the businessmen who will elaborate activity
in the free economic zones are duty free, customs free as well as
VAT free. Works are also being carried out toward developing a law
abut free economic zone.

KARABAKH ARMY ALWAYS READY TO REBUFF INTERFERENCE, SAYS SAKAHYAN

Yerevan Report
Feb 22 2010
Armenia

YEREVAN (Novosti-Armenia), February 22–"The Karabakh army is always
ready to rebuff any encroachment on state security," said the President
of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic, Bako Sahakyan, on Saturday when he
met with members of the National Assembly.

"We are deeply convinced that the issues currently existing in
the modern world can be solved solely by civilized means – through
negotiations and through direct dialog. The authorities of Azerbaijan
still continue to wage a war-mongering policy, keeping its own people
under constant pressure and threat of a renewed war. These actions are
futile and irrelevant. We have a capable army that is always ready
to rebuff any attacks on the security of our nation and people,"
Sahakian said.

According to him, the heroic people of Artsakh (the Armenian name
for Karabakh), together with all Armenians, managed to transfer the
trials that fell upon them and embarked on building a democratic state.

"For us, this path is constant and irreversible," the President said.

Sahakian also congratulated those present and all the people who on
Saturday celebrated the Day of Revival of Artsakh.

"Each of you bears the symbol of this day and has a personal
contribution to the implementation of the ideas of the national
liberation movement. Many of our friends gave their lives for the
triumph of these ideas," he said.

According to him, February 20, 1988 marked the beginning of their
national revival. "We came to the defense of our natural right to
live freely and independently in our native land, to determine our
own destiny in accordance with universal norms and principles of
international law."

"To our peaceful and fair demands, Azerbaijan replied with a brutal and
bloody war, which caused numerous human casualties and destruction,"
Sahakian said.

Translated from Russian by Yerevan Report

PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE STARTS DISCUSSING THE ARMENIAN-TURKISH PROTOCOLS
Lena Badeyan

"Radiolur"
19.02.2010 17:35

Discussions on the Armenian-Turkish protocols started in the National
Assembly’s Standing Committee on International Relations today. The
protocols will be included on the agenda of the four-day sitting to
start Monday. However, Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee
Armen Rustamyan is going to apply to the Speaker of Parliament,
asking not put the documents on the agenda of the plenary session of
the National Assembly until the Head Committee issues its conclusion.

Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharyan participated in the
sitting of the Foreign Relations Committee to present the initiative
of amending the Law on International Agreements. It was made clear
that the initiative is linked to the Armenian-Turkish protocols.

"The Law on International Agreements pursues a very clear objective.

It aims to provide the state with necessary tools to fdefend its
rights more effectively," Armen Rustamyan said.

DEPENDENCE DAY
By Tom Balmforth

Russia Profile
id=International&articleid=a1266520246
Feb 18 2010

Bagapsh Might Not Really Be a Moscow Puppet, but His Current Isolation
Gives Him Little Choice

On a trip to Moscow on Wednesday Sergey Bagapsh, the president of
the rebel region Abkhazia, inked a raft of deals with his Russian
counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, including one that will establish a joint
military ground force in the breakaway Georgian republic. Georgia
winced and NATO wagged its finger. The ten bilateral deals, apparently
signed to improve Abkhazia’s security, include plans to upgrade an
existing Russian base. Bagapsh also said the breakaway republic hopes
to join the Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia Customs Union.

Days after president Bagapsh was inaugurated for his second term
as president of the breakaway Georgian republic, he embarked on a
three-day visit to Moscow. He was received by Dmitry Medvedev at the
Kremlin yesterday to commemorate 200 years since Abkhazia, on one of
a number of past occasions, was absorbed into the Russian empire.

In the run-up to this historic moment, the leader of the breakaway
republic made some appropriate – and somewhat far-fetched – suggestions
of how to further interweave Russian and Abkhaz futures, for instance
bringing Abkhazia into the Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan Customs Union
(even though neither Minsk nor Astana have recognized Abkhazia as a
sovereign state). Bagapsh also suggested that restrictions might be
lifted to allow Russians to buy up Abkhazia’s prize real estate on the
shores of the Black Sea where the Soviet elite used to go on vacation,
the Kommersant news daily reported.

During the meeting, the leaders signed in a raft of deals
on bilateral cooperation between Russia and the rebel
region, recognized only by Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela and
speck-on-the-map-in-the-middle-of-the-Pacific- Ocean Nauru.

Among other things, the presidents agreed to renovate the existing
Russian military base at Gudauta, 37 kilometers north of Sukhumi,
where 1,700 Russian troops are presently stationed. According to the
deal, the base on the shores of the strategically important Black
Sea will then host a "joint" ground force for the next 49 years. The
accord will be renewed automatically every 15 years from then on,
Itar-Tass reported.

The ten accords were promptly condemned by a disgruntled West. "All
agreements reached between Russia and the regions of Georgia are
invalid," said Carmen Romero, the deputy spokesperson for NATO.

Meanwhile Irakli Tuzhba, a spokesperson for the Abkhazian Foreign
Ministry, insisted that the base and Russian troops are necessary to
provide security.

Alexei Malashenko, a Caucasus expert for Carnegie Moscow Center,
said he wasn’t at all surprised by the news, but that it guarantees
Russia’s future in the country. "This basically is a permanent treaty.

It means that Russia will remain on the territory of Abkhazia as a
military presence," said Malashenko.

There are currently 4,000 Russian military servicemen stationed in
Abkhazia, Tuzhba said, but when asked how this will change with the
establishment of a base and a joint ground force, he declined to
comment. "I think the contingent will be increased if it becomes
necessary, but there is no need at the moment, so the military
contingent is not increasing," he said.

Both Medvedev and Bagapsh were full of warm rhetoric during their press
conference and keen to use weak points in cooperation as building
blocks in their relationship. While for instance admitting that the
$130 million bilateral trade between Abkhazia and Russia is somewhat
paltry, Medvedev said "it is only the beginning, the first phase in
developed trade links and the starting point for further work." In
fact the two leaders hope to sign in a further 22 deals to expand
cooperation, they said. Bagapsh even revealed that Abkhaz railways will
soon come under the full management of the Russian Railways company.

So is Abkhazia happily slipping from shaky pseudo-independence,
unrecognized by the vast majority of the international community, into
increasing dependence on Russia? Although this appears to be the only
way to interpret the events of Wednesday, it would be misleading to
see Bagapsh as a Moscow puppet, said Sergey Markedonov, an independent
political analyst and expert on the Caucasus. This has been clear,
he said, since Bagapsh won Abkhazia’s presidential elections in 2004,
despite the Kremlin directly backing his rival. But the trouble for
Bagapsh at the moment is that he has no other option, said Markedonov:
"if five or six European countries did support Abkhazia, then maybe
Bagapsh would favor European integration."

"[Abkhazia] is not going to beg anyone to recognize it," Bagapsh said
on Tuesday. So far Russia has kindly undertaken the job of lobbying
for Abkhazia’s "legitimacy." But it was a dubious amount of legitimacy
that was bestowed upon Abkhazia’s sovereignty when Moscow coaxed Nauru,
an island of 11,000 people, into recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia
in return for $50 million (150 million rubles) of humanitarian aid.

These additions are bound to do little to change Abkhazia’s situation,
so does Sukhumi have to continue fully relying on Moscow? Abkhazia
might find an alternative source of support in Ankara. Several analysts
suggest that Turkey may come to recognize Abkhazia’s independence
because of its large Abkhaz diaspora. "Turkey is ready to establish
special relations with Abkhazia. I don’t know if they will recognize
Abkhazia next year, but nonetheless they recognize the special position
of Abkhazia," said Malashenko.

To that extent, NATO members and Georgia are not the only countries
to be wary of Russia expanding its military presence in Abkhazia. "I
think Turkey is disappointed with this," said Malashenko. Turkey has
recently become increasingly influential in the Black Sea region. "The
Kremlin sees Turkey as a big rival as far as all conflicts and problems
in the region are concerned. Traditionally, Russia has played the
role of mediator in the ‘frozen conflict’ of Nagorny Karabakh, but
now Turkey is getting more involved," he said. Whether Turkey’s hand
could drag Abkhazia out of its total dependence on Russia is, however,
still unclear.

SENIOR US OFFICIAL TO HOLD TALKS IN TURKISH CAPITAL

Feb 17 2010
Turkey

Burns is expected to be received by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu on Thursday afternoon.

Undersecretary of the United States Department of State, William Burns,
will hold talks in Turkish capital province of Ankara as part of his
regional tour on Thursday.

Sources said that Burns will proceed to Turkey from Syria.

William Burns will firstly visit the Turkish General Staff and hold
talks with the Undersecretary of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign
Affairs (MFA) Ambassador Feridun Sinirlioglu.

Burns is expected to be received by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu on Thursday afternoon.

During Burns’s talks in Ankara, issues such as Iran’s nuclear program,
a resolution to be brought onto the agenda of the U.S. House of
Representatives on the incidents of 1915 later in March and the
protocols signed by Turkey and Armenia, regional and international
issues pertaining to Turkey and the U.S. will be discussed.

A high volume of talks have been taking place between Turkey and the
U.S. in the past week.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with the U.S.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Doha, Qatar last weekend as
part of the "U.S.-Islamic World Forum".

Ambassador Sinirlioglu held talks in Washington, D.C. recently.

RA NA PANEL TO DEBATE ARMENIAN-TURKISH PROTOCOLS FEB.19

PanARMENIAN.Net
18.02.2010 12:34 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Armenian-Turkish Protocols will be debated in
the committee on external relations of the RA National Assembly on
February 19.

"We offered the parliament speaker to develop a procedure of
preliminary discussions," Armen Rustamyan, chairman of the committee,
said.

He emphasized that the discussions will be maximally transparent.

"According to the NA charter, international agreements are included in
the agenda and then debated during the parliamentary session," he said.

Mr. Rustamyan added that ARF-Dashnaktsutyun can support ratification
of Protocols only in case certain reservations are introduced in them.

The Protocols aimed at normalization of bilateral ties and opening of
the border between Armenia and Turkey were signed in Zurich by Armenian
Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian and his Turkish counterpart Ahmet
Davutoglu on October 10, 2009, after a series of diplomatic talks
held through Swiss mediation.

On January 12, 2010, the Constitutional Court of the Republic of
Armenia found the protocols conformable to the country’s Organic Law.