Author: Jagharian Tania

THE RA DEFENSE MINISTER GREETED THE PARTICIPANTS OF "RUBEZH 2008"

armradio.am
20.08.2008 16:59

The third and fourth phases of "Rubezh 2008" were started in the
military school after H. Bakhramyan. The RA Minister of Defense Seyran
Ohanyan was present in it. The Press Office of the RA Defense Ministry
informs that he greeted and congratulated the participants of the
military exercises. The Minister noted that the aim of the military
exercises was to unite the forces to answer the possible aggression
of enemies. He also stressed that the first and second phases of the
exercises had military-political meaning. After the solemn ceremony of
the opening there were hearings about the preparing works of closing.

To remind, this year in October military games will be held in which
the general military department will participate.

FINAL STAGES OF "RUBEZH 2008" EXERCISES START

Noyan Tapan

Au g 19, 2008

YEREVAN, AUGUST 19, NOYAN TAPAN. The final – 3rd and 4th stages of
"Rubezh 2008" Exercises began at the training ground after Marshal
H. Bagramian on August 18. In the words of the RA minister of defence
Seyran Ohanian, the purpose of the command post exercises is to repel
with joint forces a possible aggression by an enemy. The minister
underlined that the first and second stages of the exercises were
of army political importance, during which the level of various
departments’ readiness for cooperation was tested.

"The major stages of the exercises are 3rd and 4th stages involving
combat shooting done in accordance with a plan of strategic
importance. The aim of 3rd and 4th stages is the planning and
implementation of defence operations in case of a possible aggression
by an enemy," S. Ohanian said.

Following the the festive ceremony of launching the exercise, a
hearing on preparation for the final stage of the exercises was held,
during which those in charge of the exercises presented the tasks set
to them, the solutions for their implementation, and the measures
of both defensive and offensive character to be taken in case of a
collective aggression by a conditional enemy.

NT was informed by the RA defence ministry that bilateral command
post games of strategic importance with the participation of the main
military inspection are scheduled for October of this year.

WPS AGENCY, RUSSIA
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
August 13, 2008 Wednesday

TIGHTENING THE KNOT OF OIL AND GAS

by Ksana Gavshina, Vladimir Mishin

RUSSIA COULD USE ECONOMIC LEVERAGE AGAINST GEORGIA; It would be
somewhat inaccurate to talk of Russia using energy as a weapon in this
situation – but neither can we say for certain, at this stage, that
Russia won’t cut off supplies. Gazprom hasn’t made any statements as
yet about its plans for transporting fuel across Georgian territory.

There are four major pipeline systems in Georgia: the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline, the
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline, and the North-South gas
pipeline. Russia controls only one of the four: the North-South
pipeline, used to transport Russian gas to Armenia. As of this year,
Georgia has minimized its consumption of Russian gas in favor of
cheaper fuel from Azerbaijan. The other three pipelines transport fuel
from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. And it would be
somewhat inaccurate to talk of Russia using energy as a weapon in this
situation – but neither can we say for certain, at this stage, that
Russia won’t cut off supplies. Gazprom hasn’t made any statements as
yet about its plans for transporting fuel across Georgian
territory. When we approached Gazprom Export yesterday, we were unable
to obtain confirmation that the full volume of gas supplies is
reaching Armenia.

Experts disagree on the likely effectiveness of an embargo. Mikhail
Aleksandrov, head of the Caucasus Department at the CIS Countries
Institute, says that the sanctions Russia lifted in January 2007
should be re-imposed immediately.

This opinion is not shared by Leonid Grigoriev, president of the
Energy and Finance Institute. The Regnum news agency quotes Grigoriev
as saying: "Given the current situation, I see no possibility of
substantial economic sanctions. Georgia simply doesn’t have the kind
of economy that might be affected by sanctions."

Analysts are also noting Russia’s lack of success with imposing
economic sanctions on Georgia in 2006. Statistics indicate that
Russia’s economic boycott wasn’t as effective as expected. According
to the IMF, the Russian embargo had no substantial impact on the
Georgian economy: Georgia’s GDP growth rate was 8% in 2006. Russian
sanctions reduced that figure to 6-7% in 2007, also raising Georgia’s
balance of payments deficit by $250-300 million. But the negative
consequences of these processes were more than made up for by foreign
aid, according to analysts. A similar assessment of the
Russian-Georgian conflict’s results comes from Kakha Bendukidze,
former Georgian state minister for economic reforms: "Everyone knows
what Georgia lost from the Russian embargo: 1-1.5% of GDP growth, or
$150 million. That isn’t much."

This time, however, Georgia’s financial losses look like being far
more significant. There have already been reports from Tbilisi of
Russian efforts to disable Georgia’s energy arteries. Georgian Prime
Minister Lado Gurgenidze stated that Russian aircraft had struck at
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline on August 9, and the
parallel Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline – Georgia’s two energy
backbones. The Georgian government’s official statement says: "Out of
30 bombs dropped, 28 exploded – several exploded in direct proximity
to the oil pipeline, only five meters away." The statement goes on to
say: "This attack goes beyond bombing one of Georgia’s strategic
facilities – since this pipeline delivers oil to Turkey, Europe, and
the United States, these attacks pose a threat to the strategic
interests of those countries." Note that no independent sources have
confirmed this information as yet.

As well as the pipelines, Georgia’s oil ports – Poti, Batumi, Kulevi –
are being targeted by air-strikes. Due to fighting in those districts,
the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (GNKAR) has suspended crude oil
and petroleum products exports via these terminals and evacuated its
personnel. GNKAR CEO Rovnag Abdullayev said that imports and exports
of oil via Georgian ports were suspended as of August 7, since tankers
couldn’t enter the ports due to bombing. Tanker-loading resumed at
Kulevi yesterday, but GNKAR spokespersons said that the final decision
on continuing or suspending the company’s operations in the region
will be made today: "The tanker-unloading situation at the Georgian
ports of Poti and Batumi remains unclear. This is a force majeure
situation. We expect the situation to be more comprehensible by
Monday, and we shall decide what measures to take for exports of Azeri
petroleum products and crude oil."

Source: Gazeta, August 11, 2008, p. 3

Ekho, Azerbaijan
Aug 13 2008

Russia to help Armenia if Karabakh war resumes

Baku does not rule out that in case of resumption of hostilities in
Nagornyy Karabakh, Russia will assist Armenia which is a member of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization, Azerbaijani military expert
Uzeyir Cafarov has told Russian-language daily Ekho.

Cafarov said that Armenia was indirectly involved in the
Russian-Georgian conflict, as there was no doubt that Russian planes
had taken off from Armenia’s Gyumri military base to bomb Georgian
territory.

In the meantime, pro-government MP Zahid Oruc has said that Armenia’s
position in this conflict has once again demonstrated its dangerous
policy in the region and that everyone should draw a conclusion from
this. The Kremlin has always used the ethnic factor to colonize the
Caucasus, the MP added.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization includes Russia, Armenia,
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

[translated]

La Vanguardia , Spain
Aug 14 2008

Situation in South Ossetia "potentially explosive"

[Editorial by F. de Carreras: "Sorcerer’s Apprentices"]

At dawn last Thursday, Georgian troops launched a brutal and
unexpected land and air attack on Tskhinvali, the capital of South
Ossetia. A few hours later, Russia counterattacked with all its
military might. Shortly afterward Abkhazia went to Ossetia’s defence,
confronting Georgia. The Russian troops easily took control of the
situation in Ossetia. They crossed the border into Georgia and
harassed Gori, the country’s second city, which is very close to
Tbilisi, the capital. In the face of such a forceful reaction, Georgia
declared a ceasefire, but Russia continued its "preventative"
penetration into Georgian territory until it had secured its
rear-guard positions. Shortly before receiving French President
Sarkozy, currently serving as EU president, in Moscow, Russia also
declared a ceasefire through a provisional truce.

Georgia’s unexpected attack on South Ossetia occurred just at the
beginning of the "Olympic peace." On Friday, just hours after the
fighting began, Putin and Bush hardly knew what to say to each other
when they were together in Beijing at the spectacular opening of the
Olympic Games. Nevertheless it is quite improbable that the decision
for Georgia to attack South Ossetia was made independently by the
foolish President Saakashvili, a faithful pawn of Bush’s in the
region.

Although analyses of the attack are not yet clear, everything
indicates that the purpose was to test how Russia would respond to a
provocation in the Caucasus region after having lost its influence in
the Balkans. What was demonstrated is that the Russia of Putin and
Medvedev is not the Russia of Yeltsin. Their current reaction
capability and political intelligence in defence of their own specific
interests is much better. What is most likely is that the attack has
to do with Bush’s latest foreign policy mistake and with the first
positive action by the European Union, an action that was also brave
and autonomous. This was the time for the EU to start asserting itself
in an area where it should be exercising influence.

At any rate, despite the truce, the Caucasus region is potentially
explosive. Let us examine some historical aspects that will help to
understand the situation.

The Ossetians are a Caucasian people, ethnically different from the
Georgians, who have traditionally had good relations with Russia. They
have enjoyed autonomy since the time of the czars. With the
independence of Georgia after the disintegration of the USSR in 1991,
South Ossetia – North Ossetia is part of Russia as an autonomous
province – remained an enclave in Georgian territory. This situation
provoked a military conflict that ended in a precarious agreement by
which South Ossetia became a de facto independent territory of Georgia
under Russia’s protection. The Abkhazians, also located within
Georgian territory but ethnically different from Georgians in addition
to being Muslims, found themselves in a similar position, which helped
widen Russia’s narrow strip of access to the Black Sea which remained
after Ukraine got its independence.

In addition to all this, since 2006, the only pipeline carrying oil
from the deposits near the Caspian Sea north of Iraq and the former
Soviet republics north of Afghanistan that does not pass through
Russia has crossed Georgian territory. For that reason, Georgia has
become an enclave that is strategic for Western control of oil in that
region. At the NATO summit last April, Georgia and Ukraine were
candidates to join the Alliance. Because of pressure from Russia they
were not admitted.

Up to now Russia has not forced the issue of independence for South
Ossetia and Abkhazia, leaving them in an uncertain legal limbo of de
facto independence. Nevertheless, the Russian foreign minister
announced last winter that the recognition of Kosovo as an independent
state would have implications on the situation of South Ossetia and
other territories in the Ca ucasus.

After the military activity of the last few days, some observers have
asked, "Why yes to Kosovo and no to South Ossetia and Abkhazia? The
legal precedents involving several breaches of international law in
the Balkans comprise another factor in the conflict. Also keep in mind
that other countries in the region – Daguestan, Chechnyia, Ingusetia,
Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia – are also notorious centres of
instability. In this sense the Balkans are a minor theme in comparison
to the Caucasus region.

Thus the ingredients of conflict are all present: ethnicity,
religions, nationalism to excite the people; oil and energy policy as
real economic factors; Russia’s outlet to the Black Sea and limits to
the area controlled by NATO as basic geostrategic factors; proximity
to war zones (Afghanistan and Iraq) or of conflict (Iran and the
Middle East ) as centres of military interest. Therefore to play with
war in the Caucasus region is to play with fire. We hope these brief
and tragic days have served as a lesson to certain sorcerer’s
apprentices.

[translated from Spanish]

RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN CONFLICT SCRAMBLES STRATEGIC MAP OF EUROPE
By Judy Dempsey

International Herald Tribune
August 15, 2008
France

BERLIN: The Russian tanks rumbling across parts of Georgia are forcing
a fundamental reassessment of strategic interests across Europe in
a way not considered since the fall of the Berlin Wall in November
1989 and the subsequent collapse of communism

Washington and European capitals had encouraged liberalization in lands
once firmly under the Soviet aegis. Now, they find themselves asking
a question barely posed in the past two decades: How far will or can
Russia go, and what should the response be? The answer will play out
not just in the European Union, but along its new eastern frontier,
in once-obscure places like Moldova and Azerbaijan.

Already, the United States has changed tack toward Moscow. There
will be no U.S. military action in the Caucasus, but by dispatching
Condoleezza Rice to Georgia and insisting that Russia withdraw,
Washington underlined that the Russians should not move on the capital,
Tbilisi. French leaders, acting on behalf of Europe, had already firmly
told the Russians they could not insist on the ouster of Georgia’s
president, Mikheil Saakashvili, as precondition for a cease-fire.

Farther west in Poland, American negotiators Thursday dropped
resistance to giving the Poles advanced Patriot missiles in exchange
for stationing parts of a missile defense system there. That system,
the Americans insist, is intended to deflect attack from Iran.

The Russian ambassador to NATO, Dmitri Rogozin, was not the only
member of the Russian military and political leadership who saw
things differently. "The fact that this was signed in a period of
a very difficult crisis in the relationship between Russia and the
United States over the situation in Georgia shows that of course the
missile defense system will not be deployed against Iran but against
the strategic potential of Russia," he told Reuters.

The Poles, indeed, had their own security in mind. "Poland wants to be
in alliances where assistance comes in the very first hours of – knock
on wood – any possible conflict," Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.

"The reality is that international relations are changing," said
Pawel Swieboda, director of demosEUROPA, an independent research
organization based in Warsaw. "For the first time since 1991, Russia
has used military force against a sovereign state in the post-Soviet
area. The world will not be the same. A new phenomenon is unfolding
in front or our eyes: a re-emerging power that is willing to use force
to guarantee it interests. The West does not know how to respond."

At stake 20 years ago was whether the Kremlin, then under Mikhail
Gorbachev, would intervene militarily to stop the collapse of
communism. But Gorbachev chose to cut Eastern Europe free as he focused
– in vain – on preventing the collapse of the Soviet Union itself.

Communist bloc lands from the Baltic States in the north to Bulgaria
in the south have since joined the European Union and NATO – a feat,
despite flaws, that in the Western view has made the continent more
secure and democratic.

But Russia never liked the expansion of NATO. In the 1990s, it was
too weak to resist; today, in the Caucasus, Russia is showing off its
power and sending an unmistakable message: Georgia, or much larger
Ukraine, will never be allowed to join NATO.

The implications of Russia’s action reverberate well beyond that,
from the European Union’s muddled relations with its key energy
supplier, Russia, through Armenia and Azerbaijan in the south, to
Ukraine and Moldova.

This region has everything the West and Russia both covet and abhor:
immense reserves of oil and gas, innumerable ethnic splits and
tensions, corrupt and authoritarian regimes, pockets of territory
which have become breeding grounds or safe havens for Islamic
fundamentalists. As a result, the region has become the arena for
competition between the Americans and Europeans on the one hand,
and Russia on the other, over how to bring these countries into their
respective spheres of influence.

The EU – as ever, slow and divided – has offered few concrete
proposals in order to bring the countries of what Russia calls its
"near abroad" – Belarus, Ukraine, the Caucasus and the Caspian –
closer to Europe. Russia insists it should protect ethnic Russians
and Russian citizens in those countries – a point that President
Nicolas Sarkozy of France seemed to concede this week in a Kremlin
appearance alongside President Dmitri Medvedev.

The emergency meeting this week of EU foreign ministers showed just
how divided they were. Analysts say it is because the 27 member states
have not been able to separate their view of Russia from adopting a
clear strategy towards the former Soviet republics on the EU’s new
eastern borders.

"The Georgia crisis shows that Russia is in the process of testing
how far it can go," said Niklas Nilsson of the Central Asia-Caucasus
Institute in Stockholm. "This is part of a much bigger geopolitical
game. It is time for the Europeans to decide what kind of influence
it wants in the former Soviet states. That is the biggest strategic
challenge the EU now faces."

NATO, led by the U.S and several East European countries, has reached
out more actively. At a summit meeting in Bucharest in April, Georgia
and Ukraine failed to get on a concrete path to membership as they
had sought, but did secure a promise of joining eventually.

Georgia and its supporters say that NATO membership would have
protected Georgians from Russian tanks. West European diplomats by
contrast note with relief that Georgia is not in NATO, and thus could
not invoke the Article V of the alliance charter that stipulates that
an attack on one member justifies other alliance nations coming to
its defense.

The newly resurgent Russians, buoyed by oil and gas wealth and the
firm leadership of Vladimir Putin, have played their hand with less
hesitation.

Tomas Valasek, the Slovak-born director of foreign policy and defense
at the Center for European Reform in London, says Russia has used the
ethnic and territorial card in order to persuade some NATO countries
that admitting Ukraine or Georgia would prove more dangerous and
unstable than keeping them out. Georgia’s incursion Aug. 7 into South
Ossetia, a territory that fought Georgia from 1990-1992, serves both
these Russian arguments and Moscow’s passionate objections to the
West’s support for an independent Kosovo.

Recognize Kosovo’s break with Serbia, Putin warned last spring,
and Russia will feel entitled to do the same with South Ossetia
and Georgia’s other breakaway enclave, Abkhazia – where Putin needs
stability in order to realize his cherished project of the 2014 Winter
Olympics in nearby Sochi.

Ukraine, bigger than France and traditionally seen by Russians as
integral to their heritage and dominion, has been conspicuously
quiet over the past week. President Viktor Yushchenko flew to
Tbilisi with the presidents of the three Baltic states and Poland
to show support. But he later failed to join them at the side of
President Mikheil Saakashvili. Both Yushchenko and Prime Minister
Yulia Timoshenko have been measured. "They are very concerned about
the Crimea and the energy situation ahead of the winter," said a
spokesman who requested anonymity.

In the case of Crimea, Yushchenko signed a decree that would impose
further controls over access to the port of Sevastopol, where the
Russian Black Sea fleet is based. Russia has insisted it would keep
the fleet there despite a 1997 agreement between Moscow and Kiev to
end the lease in 2017.

Senior Ukrainian officials say that the weak EU response on Georgia
will only embolden Russia to focus even more on Ukraine, where many
inhabitants speak Russian and, particularly in the eastern half,
look to Moscow, not Kiev, for leadership.

"The crisis in Georgia has clear implications for regional security,
and of course Ukraine," said Hryhoriy Nemyria, deputy Prime Minister
of Ukraine who is responsible for European integration. "This crisis
makes crystal clear that the security vacuums that have existed in
the post-Soviet space remain dangerous.

"After Georgia is Ukraine," said Swieboda. "The EU and U.S. cannot
take their eyes off Ukraine now. Russia will do everything possible to
ensure that NATO will not offer Ukraine the chance to start accession
talks in December."

As for Georgia’s eastern neighbor Azerbaijan, energy and ethnic
tensions provide ample fodder for strategic dispute. Georgia and
Azerbaijan are crucial for EU plans to build the Nabucco pipeline
that would bring gas from Central Asia and Azerbaijan via Georgia to
Europe. That would weaken Europe’s dependence on Russia; it is hard
to see investors lining up to bankroll Nabucco if Georgia remains in
military conflict. Azerbaijan also has Caspian oil, which must again
travel west via Georgia.

But it is the unresolved status of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian
enclave in Azerbaijan, which explains why President Ilham Aliyev of
Azerbaijan has been measured in his response to the crisis in Georgia.

After a bloody war in the early 1990s, Nagorno-Karabakh functions as
a part of Armenia, supported by Russia.

"Aliyev has adopted a different style than Saakashvili," said Leila
Alieva, director of the National Committee on Azerbaijan’s Integration
in Europe. "We know that Russia is involved in Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyev
does not want to provoke Russia by trying to change the status quo
of the enclave. If he tried to do so, it could cause a big Russian
reaction."

US REPRESENTATIVES ADMIT INFLUENCE OF ARMENIAN LOBBY ON US-AZERBAIJANI RELATIONSHIPS

Azerbaijan Business Center
13.08.2008 16:03
Azerbaijan

Baku, Fineko/abc.az. International conference "Azerbaijanians &
Americans: How We See Each Other" is taking place in Baku today.

Addressing to the conference Rob Long, a representative of National
Review, said that fact of lobbying of Armenia’s interests in US policy
take place.

"Influence of Armenian lobby is observed in policy of the United
States. The well known amendments serve an example for that,"
Mr. Long said.

The conference also involved reps of Los Angeles Times, Newsweek,
The New Republic, Azerbaijani government and NGOs.

TIGRAN SARGSIAN SAYS ARMENIA AGREES TO BE A HUMANITARIAN CORRIDOR FOR TRANSPORTING ASSISTANCE TO TERRITORIES WHICH SUFFERED DURING GEORGIAN-OSSETIAN CONFLICT

ARMENPRESS
Aug 13, 2008

YEREVAN, AUGUST 13, ARMENPRESS: The European Union applied with request
to Armenia asking it to be a humanitarian corridor for transporting
assistance to the territories which suffered from Georgian-Ossetian
conflict. Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsian said today in
briefing that Armenia, of course, agreed to do it.

"Today a large volume of humanitarian assistance is being provided
for which Armenia’s territory is being used," the prime minister
said, adding that Armenia will also discuss issue on providing its
humanitarian assistance to the South Ossetia.

U.S. SOLDIERS IN TBILISI ON STANDBY FOR AID MISSION
By John Vandiver

Stars and Stripes
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
DC

U.S. soldiers stationed in Tbilisi to train the Georgian army
for operations in Iraq are now on standby to provide humanitarian
assistance to displaced civilians affected by five days of fierce
conflict, U.S. European Command said Tuesday.

About 115 soldiers from various units are on hand to provide help,
such as delivery of food, water and medical supplies, EUCOM spokesman
Lt. Cmdr. Corey Barker said.

While Barker declined to state the exact location of the soldiers,
they are in the Tbilisi area. "And they are safe," Barker said.

Meanwhile, 13 U.S. contractors who were part of the training mission,
and were still in Georgia on Monday, have returned to EUCOM’s
headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany.

U.S. forces have been working side-by-side with members of the Georgian
military, helping to prepare its members for operations in Iraq. Such
training exercises have been conducted since 2005, according to Barker.

Though 2,000 Georgian soldiers were serving in Iraq prior to the
fighting that started last week, they have since returned to their
home country. All the troops were flown back on Sunday and Monday
aboard U.S. Air Force C-17s.

Since the conflict over the breakaway province of South Ossetia
erupted into violence on Friday, American civilians have been making
their way out of the country. About 170 people convoyed out and were
bound for the U.S. Embassy in neighboring Armenia.

By Tuesday afternoon, Russia announced that it had halted military
operations, but Georgia says the Russians are still bombing. It was
not immediately clear whether civilians who have fled have started
to return.

According to the United Nations, locals numbering in the tens of
thousands have been uprooted by the fighting.

A humanitarian airlift carrying relief supplies for civilians
affected by the conflict arrived in Georgia on Tuesday morning as
the estimated number of displaced people approached 100,000, the
U.N. refugee agency reported.

It is the first U.N. humanitarian flight to reach Georgia since the
start of the violence. More deliveries are slated in the days ahead,
the U.N. said. About 1,000 U.S. soldiers were recently in Georgia
for the latest training mission, Immediate Response 2008. The troops
were drawn from the Vicenza, Italy-based Southern European Task Force
(Airborne), the Kaiserslautern-based 21st Theater Sustainment Command
along with stateside Marine and Army reservist units.

Immediate Response 2008 ended on Thursday, just one day before the
fighting started. Virtually all of the U.S. military personnel were
out of the country by the time Russian and Georgian forces clashed.

About 115 U.S. soldiers who are still in Georgia will be focused on
delivering incoming U.S. aid, Barker said.

Details about the relief effort, including whether additional
U.S. troops would be participating, were unavailable Tuesday afternoon.

"We’re still whittling [the plan] down," Barker said.

EU’S HUMANITARIAN AID TO GEORGIA THROUGH ARMENIA

Panorama.am
21:12 12/08/2008

The humanitarian aid provided to Georgia by the European Union is
to be transported through Armenian territory, said Gurgen Sargsyan,
the Minister of Transport and Communication in a briefing.

"This is a new process which should be fulfilled based on the agreement
between the sides. The goods will be imported into Georgia though
Armenia and most probably by auto transport," said the Minister.