ON ANNIVERSARY OF POSTELECTION VIOLENCE IN ARMENIA, EU PUSHES FOR DIALOGUE
Liz Fuller
EurasiaNet
March 2 2009
NY
One year after the violent crackdown by Armenian police and security
against supporters of defeated presidential candidate and former
President Levon Ter-Petrossian in Yerevan, the political situation
in Armenia remains polarized but, at least on the surface, stable.
Ter-Petrossian’s Armenian National Congress (HAK) has scheduled a
demonstration in Yerevan on March 1 to commemorate the anniversary
of the violence, which caused 10 deaths. But it is not clear whether
he can parlay the support he still enjoys among the electorate into
a new challenge to the entrenched leadership of President Serzh
Sarkisian. In a bid to prevent the March 1 commemoration spiraling
into a new confrontation, EU special envoy Ambassador Peter Semneby
has met separately two times in the past 10 days with both Sarkisian
and Ter-Petrossian.
Outgoing President Robert Kocharian responded to the Yerevan
violence last year by imposing a state of emergency, which was lifted
after three weeks, and partial media censorship. In mid-March, the
parliament amended the law on public gatherings to impose restrictions
on demonstrations.
President-elect Sarkisian, for his part, took a more conciliatory
approach. On February 26, days before the violence, he appealed
to his defeated rivals to cooperate, and even join a coalition
government. Former parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian (Orinats
Yerkir), who according to the official returns placed third after
Ter-Petrossian, and Vahan Hovannisian (Armenian Revolutionary
Federation-Dashnaktsutiun) accepted that offer. Baghdasarian was named
National Security Council secretary, and he and Sarkisian co-authored
an op-ed that appeared in the "Washington Post" on March 17 appealing
to "those who are still promoting instability on the streets to join
us in political dialogue and to help us guide our country towards
prosperity."
Unanswered Questions
Ter-Petrossian, however, has consistently said he will agree to
Sarkisian’s proposed dialogue only when all his supporters arrested in
the wake of the March 1 violence — there are estimated to be more than
100 of them — are released. To date, at least 77 have been tried,
with 40 receiving prison terms and 37 suspended sentences. Seven
others, including three former parliamentarians and former Foreign
Minister Alexander Arzoumanian, are currently on trial on charges of
plotting a coup d’etat.
On May 2, in his first public address since the crackdown two months
earlier, Ter-Petrossian told supporters in Yerevan that while he
does not consider Sarkisian the legitimately elected president,
he is ready to accept his invitation to dialogue provided that the
authorities first comply with the demands contained in a resolution
adopted on April 17 by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of
Europe (PACE). They include conducting an "independent, transparent,
and credible inquiry" into the violence; the release of persons
detained in the wake of those clashes "on seemingly artificial and
politically motivated charges"; and the immediate repeal of the legal
amendments effectively banning opposition rallies.
Those amendments were finally rescinded in June, and Ter-Petrossian
staged a series of rallies in Yerevan and Giumri during the summer and
early fall that attracted thousands of people. But in mid-October,
he unexpectedly announced a moratorium on further protests, saying
that otherwise the opposition could inadvertently become "a tool
in the hands of foreign forces" intent on coercing the Sarkisian
leadership into sweeping unilateral concessions with regard to the
Karabakh conflict.
Meanwhile, little progress has been made in clarifying the events
that culminated in the March 1 violence. In June 2008, Sarkisian
established an ad hoc parliament commission tasked with doing so, that
was supposed to present its findings by mid-October. That deadline
has been extended twice — first until mid-February, ostensibly to
enable the commission to incorporate the conclusions of a separate
five-person fact-finding commission, and then earlier this week,
until mid-September. To date, the commission has established that
three of the deaths were caused by outdated tear-gas canisters fired
into the crowd, but it was unable to identify which of four police
officers armed with such canisters fired them or on whose orders.
Armenian human rights ombudsman Armen Harutiunian has publicly
questioned that failure. "I don’t believe that four officers used
[tear-gas grenades] and three people died, and that it is impossible
to clarify who is to blame," Harutiunian said.
Watching Closely
Speaking last fall to the "Financial Times," Harutiunian was even
more outspoken, accusing the Armenian authorities of resorting to
"the methods of 1937" — an allusion to the Stalin purges — and
of tolerating political opposition "for decoration, to please the
West." The authorities’ tactic of playing for time and assuring human
rights bodies such as the PACE of their sincere intent to comply with
those organizations’ demands but ultimately failing to deliver serves
to substantiate Harutiunian’s argument.
The human rights violations resulting from the postelection crackdown
have been documented and analyzed in depth in reports issued this
week by Human Rights Watch and the U.S. State Department. But they
are paralleled by an equally disturbing trend in foreign policy:
the eclipse of the concept of complementarity or balance that was its
hallmark during Kocharian’s presidency, and a concomitant shift toward
Russia. A recent analysis by the Yerevan-based Civilitas Foundation
makes the point that by soliciting and accepting a $500 million
loan from Russia and simultaneously signing on to the proposed CIS
Collective Security Treaty Organization rapid reaction force, Armenia
"is already perceived to be even deeper in the Russian camp," a trend
that, if not reversed, could result in Armenia no longer being regarded
as a serious player in the Caucasus by either Moscow or Washington.
Ter-Petrossian’s aides have made clear that the planned March 1
rally will take place despite the municipal authorities’ refusal to
grant permission for it within the required time frame. The visits by
Ambassador Semneby to Yerevan over the past week suggest that the EU
is aware of the potential for new bloodshed and seeks at all costs
not only to prevent it, but to bring about a rapprochement between
Ter-Petrossian and the authorities.
"How that anniversary is going to be observed is also going to be
an important indicator for how the political life will continue to
develop in this country," Semneby said.
If Semneby’s efforts prove inconclusive, Ter-Petrossian may be able to
tap rising popular discontent in the coming months as the impact of
the global financial crisis bites increasingly deeply. Independent
parliament deputy Viktor Dallakian noted on February 25 that gas
and energy tariffs are set to rise on April 1, and the government
has proposed legislation raising customs duty on some imported
food products, in order to protect local producers, Noyan Tapan
reported. Dallakian warned that those price hikes could easily trigger
public protests.