Author: Jagharian Tania

GEORGIAN BASE CLOSURE SHIFTS STRATEGIC BALANCE
Institute for War & Peace Reporting (IWPR)
June 30 2005
The transfer of Russian military hardware from Georgia to Armenia may
alter the balance of forces in the South Caucasus.
By Irakly Aladashvili in Tbilisi and David Petrosian in Yerevan
On May 30, after years of disagreements, Georgia and Russia finally
agreed on a timescale for Moscow to close its two remaining military
bases in Georgia. Moscow and Tbilisi are now negotiating the technical
details of the pullout – and the critical issue of what will become
of the significant numbers of Russian tanks in Georgia.
The Russian bases at Akhalkalaki and Batumi are to close up by the end
of 2008. Russia plans to transfer some of the equipment now stationed
there to its military base in Gyumri in neighbouring Armenia.
Although Georgian officials have hailed the pullout agreement as a
landmark, some observers believe the transfer of more Russian armaments
to Armenia could upset the already fragile balance of forces between
Armenia and Azerbaijan. The neighbours are still involved in a long
conflict over the disputed Nagorny Karabakh territory and lands
adjacent to it.
Peace talks to end the decade-old conflict have dragged on for years.
Recently, Azerbaijan, which lost 14 per cent of its territory to ethnic
Armenian forces in the fighting, has shown increasing impatience with
the situation.
The relocation of military hardware from Russia’s bases in Georgia to
sites in Armenia has been greeted with more concern in Azerbaijan.
President Ilham Aliev says his country will raise defence spending
by 70 per cent as a result. Azerbaijan has often accused Russia of
covertly backing Armenia in the conflict.
“It is true that this hardware is not being handed over to Armenia
but remains at the disposal of the Russian base,” President Aliev
said on June 25 as he addressed graduates at the Azerbaijani Higher
Military School. “However, it will nevertheless be transferred to
Armenian territory – and we have had to take proper steps, which we
did by increasing defence expenditure in the budget.”
According to the Military Staff of the Russian Troops in the
Transcaucasus, at the beginning of 2005, there were 1,700 military
personnel stationed at Batumi. In addition, the base had 31 tanks,
131 armoured fighting vehicles, AFVs, and 211 other vehicles, and 76
large-calibre artillery systems.
The base at Akhalkalaki had 1,800 personnel, 41 tanks, 67 AFVs and
61 other vehicles, and 64 large-calibre artillery pieces.
Three trainloads of weapons and munitions, including chemical and
nuclear warfare protection gear as well as anti-aircraft missiles,
have left the Batumi base for Gyumri since the agreement was signed.
Under the terms of the deal, around 40 per cent of Russian equipment
in Georgia is supposed to be relocated to Gyumri.
Russian defence minister Sergei Ivanov said the relocation did not
mean that Armenia or Russia would exceed international agreements
governing arms restrictions in the Caucasus. And, on an official level
at least, Yerevan says the relocation is a normal measure regulated
by treaty obligations.
Some argue that Armenia needs the boost in weaponry on its territory
that the closure of the Russian bases in Georgia will give it.
One Georgian expert predicted that in the event of a resumption of
hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Georgia would try to
prevent new overland shipments of Russian armaments reaching Armenia
through its territory. “If the armed conflict between Armenia and
Azerbaijan is resumed, it may be assumed that Georgia will try to
maintain complete neutrality and will not allow the Russian military
to deliver additional ammunition to Yerevan,” said the expert, who
did not want to be named.
“However, it will be first and foremost Armenia that will suffer
from Georgia’s neutrality, as it will find itself under an almost
total blockade.”
“Today, the only thing that Yerevan – whose economic potential cannot
be compared with that of Azerbaijan — can think about is replenishment
of the stocks of Russian military equipment and ammunition.”
However, a number of experts in Armenia believe that the relocation
of Russian heavy armaments to Armenia will reduce Yerevan’s security,
not increase it.
Anatoly Tsyganok, a professor at the Academy of Military Sciences,
said, “All the control units for Russian anti-aircraft systems in
this region are currently in Georgia. Moscow reinforced them not
so long ago, in 2003 and 2004, as it considered it possible that
unsanctioned missiles could be launched from the south, perhaps Iran,
aimed at Russia.
“The impending elimination of these units will sharply reduce control
over the entire system. As a result, not only Russia but also Armenia
will encounter new problems.”
Four Russian military bases remained in Georgia in the early 1990s
when the Soviet Union collapsed. In 2001, in pursuance of agreements
reached at an OSCE summit in 1999, Russia gave up the Vaziani base
located near Tbilisi and the Gudauta base in Abkhazia.
Some observers say the two bases that were left lost any real strategic
value for Russia.
“The two bases remaining on Georgian territory were then deprived of
the main component – the airfield in Vaziani,” said Koba Liklikadze,
an observer on military affairs. “As there was no railway line to reach
them, the Batumi and Akhalkalaki bases found themselves blockaded and
encountered problems with the transportation of military contingents,
fuel, and weapons.”
Moscow and Tbilisi had been negotiating on the closure of the Batumi
and Akhalkalaki bases since 1999. The Georgians had maintained that
itn could be done in three to four years, while Moscow initially
demanded 17 and later 11 years.
Talks on closing the bases were significantly stepped up after
President Mikheil Saakashvili and his team came to power in Georgia.
Georgian defence minister Irakly Okruashvili said that the agreement
to close the bases marks the end of 200 years of a Russian military
presence in Georgia.
However, the question is whether Georgia will become a “demilitarised
zone”, as its leadership has said it wants, or join NATO, to which
the government also aspires.
This question particularly worries the almost 100,000-strong Armenian
community in the Samtskhe-Javakheti region, as the Akhalkalaki military
base located there is not just the only source of jobs for the locals,
it is also viewed as a guarantor of security against NATO member
Turkey – located right across the border.
Some Armenian security officials are disappointed with the
Russian-Georgian agreement to liquidate the bases, seeing it as a
capitulation by Moscow.
“Moscow has given in to a weak country [Georgia], failing to protect
any of the diplomatic, economic, and military issues linked to its
national security, as well as the matters relating to its sole ally
in the region, Armenia,” an Armenian expert close to the government
who asked to remain anonymous told IWPR.
Irakly Aladashvili is a military observer for the Kviris Palitra
newspaper in Tbilisi. David Petrosian is a political observer for
the Noyan Tapan news agency in Yerevan

US TO ALLOCATE MILITARY GRANT TO ARMENIA
A1plus
| 13:53:16 | 30-06-2005 | Politics |
The US House of Representatives decreed Tuesday to allocate $5 million
to Armenia and Azerbaijan as a grant for military purposes in 2006,
day.az reported
To note, the Congressmen did not approve the $4 million military aid
to Uzbekistan explaining the decision by “changeable developments in
the republic.”
Baltic states will receive $5 million each.
According to the information center of the US Department of State
the program of foreign military financing is “a critically important
instrument of the US foreign policy for advancing its interests
throughout the world.”
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Azerbaijan, Armenia Agree on Two More Principles
Baku Today, Azerbaijan
June 28 2005
Two pivotal issues were agreed upon during the Paris meeting of
Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers, Foreign Minister Elmar
Mammadyarov has said. He did not elaborate, saying that the sides
had agreed to keep these issues confidential.
Mammadyarov said that despite progress in talks, the sides have not
agreed upon certain issues yet. “We will certainly discuss these
issues in the future and outline what steps should be taken to
achieve goals.”
Mammadyarov said the talks are underway based on the principles
outlined during the Warsaw meeting of the two countries’ presidents
and the foreign ministers are trying to arrive at a consensus. “After
consensus is reached on all principles, their gist will be reflected
on paper,” he said.
The minister went on to say that he held an informal meeting with his
Armenian counterpart Vardan Oskanian in Brussels last week during an
international event dedicated to the future developments in Iraq. The
parties discussed the most efficient directions to continue the
negotiations and complete the peace process soon, he said.
Commenting on Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov’s statement that
peace talks may yield results in August, Mammadyarov said it is
difficult to cite the exact timing.
“Frankly, I don’t expect the talks to yield results till the end of
August, when Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents will meet in Kazan.”
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

UN discussions on Garabagh conflict ‘will depend on peace talks’
Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
June 28 2005
Baku, June 27, AssA-Irada — Azerbaijan is still to ascertain whether
or not the a draft resolution on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Upper Garabagh
conflict will be put on discussion at the UN General Assembly in
August, Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov has said.
Mammadyarov said the discussions will depend on the process of peace
talks. “If we achieve progress in talks, the situation will certainly
change. In this case, we will re-work the document,” he said.
Azerbaijan achieved putting the issue of illegal settlement of
Armenians in the occupied regions of Azerbaijan on the UN General
Assembly agenda in 2004. The discussions were followed by a visit of
the OSCE fact-finding mission to Upper Garabagh.*

AZG Armenian Daily #117, 25/06/2005
Constitution
DAYS OF TRIAL IN STRASBURG
‘We achieved total-lot results as regards changes’
The most overwrought day in the work of Armenian delegation at the PACE was
perhaps June 23. The delegation managed to avoid 2 dangerous offers that
could be fatal for Armenia once adopted.
On June 23, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe verified the
draft project of a monitoring commission on Armenian constitution. A session
of the monitoring commission discussed 3 proposals concerning the draft put
forward by Turkish and Azeri representatives and one by Dutch deputy Erik
Jurgens. The proposal of Turks and Azeris was hotly discussed during 2 days.
They suggested jotting down in the constitution that Armenia recognizes the
internationally recognized borders of other states. But, as parliament
vice-speaker Tigran Torosian said, “we managed to turn the offer down in a
fierce fighting”. The proposal was voted down by only one prevailing vote of
Matias Jorse, head of Liberal-Democratic block at CE. Upon Jurgens’
proposal, the Assembly called on Armenia to hold a referendum not later than
in November 2005.
“I think that it’s a rather fine draft and may lay serious foundation for a
successful referendum. Of course, we have to work on the draft”.
Discussions of the Venice Commission and the Armenian delegation followed.
“Azeris, having been warned that they will not be empowered in PACE once
elections fail, tried to include suchlike proviso in our draft. But their
attempts crushed down. This was not only the most nervous but also the most
successful day of the Armenian delegation as we managed to neutralize 2
dangerous proposals”, Tigran Torosian said.
By Karine Danielian
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

BAKU Today, Azerbaijan
June 24 2005
PACE committee on Karabakh to meet Thursday
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe committee on
Nagorno Karabakh will meet for the first time on Thursday.
On the first day of the PACE session, Wednesday, PACE approved the
composition of its temporary committee. It comprises parliament
members from Baku and Yerevan, chairs of separate PACE committees,
and the rapporteurs on Azerbaijan and Armenia, a representative of
the Azeri delegation at PACE Asim Mollazada said.
Mollazada, who chairs the organization committee of the Democratic
Reforms Party, will represent the Azerbaijani opposition at the PACE
committee.

VARDAN OSKANIAN: ARMENIA IS WILLING TO DEVELOP ITS RELATIONS WITH
PEACEFUL, UNITED AND DEMOCRATIC IRAQ
YEREVAN, June 24. /ARKA/. Armenia is willing to develop its relations
with peaceful, united and democratic Iraq. According to RA MFA Press
Service, RA Minister of Foreign Affairs Vartan Oskanian stated about
it at the international conference on Iraq in Brussels. “Only 200
miles separate the capitals of our states, and we are most interested
in cooperation”, he said. Oskanian highly appreciated the fact of
holding a conference, adding that it’s very important for Iraqi
people, which must be aware of consistent involvement of the
international community in restoration of Iraq. “This makes sides
interested to apply more efforts to restore the country”, he
said. Oskanian added that even such small countries with moderate
possibilities and symbolic participation like Armenia understand the
value of moral support by interested observers. “Being a Minister of
Foreign Affairs of the country, which undergoes difficult transition
period, I can assure that due to consistent economic support and
long-term investments, the society will begin to believe in prospects
of peace and democracy”, he said.
Speaking about Armenia’s presence in Iraq, he noted that “the country
is rich with natural resources”. According to him, they speak not only
about the resources under ground, but also wealth of the national
diversity. “Ancient and large in number Armenia community of Iraq is a
part of that variety, and we are aware that together with other Iraqi
people they hope to have their input in prospering and peaceful future
of the country”, he said.
Oskanian left for Brussels by the invitation of the US Secretary of
State Condoliza Rice and EU Council Secretary-General Javier
Solana. The conference on Iraq in Brussels was organized at the
initiative of the USA, EU and Iraq. Delegations from 85 countries of
the world and largest international organizations will take part in
it. A.H.-0-

Armenpress
KOCHARIAN MEETS ARMENIAN STUDENTS IN MOSCOW
MOSCOW, JUNE 24, ARMENPRESS: Armenian president Robert Kocharian met
yesterday in Moscow with a group of Armenian students majoring at Russian
universities. Some 5,000 ethnic Armenian students are believed to study at
Moscow-based higher education establishments, 15 percent of them are
Armenian citizens.
The meeting was organized by Armenian embassy in Russia and the
Association of Armenian Students of Moscow State University. The president
had a frank talk with students and answered their questions, focusing on the
Karabakh problem, Turkish-Armenian relations, domestic issues.
In response to a question about the advisability of building an
Iran-Armenia railway, Kocharian said there was no need for it as there is a
railway connecting Armenia with Iran through Azerbaijan’s exclave
Nakhichevan. “As soon as we resolve the dispute with Azerbaijan this road
will resume its operation,’ he said

REQUIEM SOLEMNY PRESIDED BY CATHOLICOS OF ALL ARMENIANS AT SOGHOMON
TEHLERIAN’S GRAVE
FRESNO, JUNE 22, NOYAN TAPAN – ARMENIANS TODAY. As it was already
stated, on June 15, in Sacramento, within the framework of a pastoral
visit to the US Western Deocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church,
Karekin II, Catholicos of All Armenians met with Arnold Schwarzenegger,
the Governor of California, the city authorities, law-makers and
senators of the state, including Senator Chuck Puchigian, of Armenian
origin. Before leaving for Sacramento, on June 14, the Catholicos of
All Armenians visited the California State University of Fresno where
there is an Armenian Studies Department as well. John Welty, the
President of the CSU Fresno Campus mentioned that there are students
of the Armenians origin at the University and it has numerous ties
with Armenia. Welty decorated His Holiness with the highest order of
the University. Then addressing his blessing to professors’ staff and
students of the University, the Catholicos of All Armenians presented
in details the mission of the Armenian Church and the present
achivements, particularly in the sphere of education. His Holiness
Karekin II appriciated services of the University in the issue of
bringing up and education of the youth, expressing his satisfaction
with the continual respect and love towards the Armenian people and
the Armenian Church. On the same day, Archbishops Nerses Pozapalian
and Vache Hovsepian, members of the retinue of the Catholicos of All
Armenians and ones of the elderly churchmen of the Mother See, and
clergymen of the deocese visited the old-aged pensioner’s home of
California. As Noyan Tapan was informed from the Information Center of
the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin, the Catholicos of All Armenians
had a meeting with Roger Monteroy, the Fresno Mayor at the Mayor’s
Office on June 13. His Holiness mentioned that Armenians settled down
in Fresno after the 1898 Hamidian massacres and the 1915 Armenian
Genocide. The Catholicos of All Armenians also expressed his gratitude
to the state authorities of California and expressed a hope that once
the United States will recognize and condemn the Armenian Genocide.
Karekin II, Catholicos of All Armenians visited the Armenian community
school of Fresno where about 100 pupils study. On the same day, in
Fresno, a requiem was presided solemny by the Catholicos of All
Armenians at the grave of Soghomon Tehlerian. At the end of the
requiem, His Holiness preached about justice and Armenians’ invincible
soul, gifting his blessing to united pious Armenians.

A1plus
| 21:31:32 | 22-06-2005 | Politics | PACE SUMMER SESSION 2005 |
THE AZERI PECULIARITY
As always, the Azeri delegation, passing over the discussed matter, referred
to the land problem. Member of the Azeri delegation Rafael Huseynov
mentioned that for the years after membership to the COE Azerbaijan has
proved that it spares no effort to establish democracy in the country and to
honor its obligations and commitments.
Mr. Huseynov spoke about the `peculiarity’ of Azerbaijan. `Azerbaijan is the
only member country of the COE, 20% of the lands of which are occupied’. We
hope that the PACE will take corresponding steps to call aggressor Armenia
to responsibility and will give Azerbaijan the possibility to become member
of COE with all its territory.
Head of the Azeri delegation Samed Seyidov also made speech. He asked
everyone to be tolerant to Azerbaijan and claimed that Azerbaijan takes
steps to solve all the problems.