Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
Feb 16 2007
Armenia Fears Population Crisis
Government sees drop in population as a threat to national security.
By Naira Melkumian in Yerevan (CRS No. 379 16-Feb-07)
In a bid to curb a steep demographic decline, the Armenian government
has produced a strategy to boost the population – but many have
criticised the move as cosmetic.
`You can observe a negative trend in the reduction in the number of
people of reproductive age, which, alongside the overall ageing of
the nation, may lead us into serious problems in the labour market
and for our plans to secure steady economic growth,’ the deputy
minister of labour and social affairs, Artsvik Minasian, one of the
architects of the new strategy, told IWPR.
The past ten years have seen the country’s official population
dwindle by 500,000 people. According to government statistics,
Armenia currently has around 3.2 million inhabitants.
However, most experts say these figures are exaggerated. The US
government’s CIA Factbook lists the population as being 2,976,372 in
2006, while some say it is even lower than that.
The United Nations Population Fund predicts that if current trends
continue, the population will shrink to 2.33 million by 2050, while
that of Azerbaijan – with which Armenia remains in a state of frozen
conflict over the disputed territory of Nagorny Karabakh – will
exceed 11 million.
`With the Karabakh conflict still unresolved and the real prospect of
renewed fighting with Azerbaijan, the demographic crisis could become
a serious threat to security,’ said Aram Sarkisian, member of
parliament and leader of the opposition Democratic Party.
The main reasons for the decline are a haemorrhage of people through
emigration, plummeting birth rates, an ageing nation, high mortality
and increased incidence of disease among people of reproductive age.
All of which are linked.
Ruben Yeganian, a researcher at Yerevan State University, estimated
emigration numbers at 800,000 since independence, or close to a
quarter of the population.
`The lower birth rates are partly due to the emigration-caused
imbalance of the ratio of sexes at reproductive age,’ said Suzanna
Barseghian, demography expert at the Armenian Centre for National and
Strategic Research.
One result of this is that in the 20-24 age group, there are more
women than men, meaning that many women who would otherwise bear
children, do not.
Work done by researchers at Yerevan State University says that a low
birth rate, far more than increased mortality, is the main factor
inhibiting a natural growth in the population. Armenian parents tend
to have only one or two children.
On average, 36,000 babies are now born in Armenia every year – less
than half of the number of several years ago. In order to encourage
fertility, the government has decided to provide a one-off allowance
of 200,000 drams (around 500 dollars) to mothers giving birth to a
third child. Only socially vulnerable families will qualify for the
grant. The labour ministry says some 3,000 families will receive the
money.
Deputy Minister Artsvik Minasian told IWPR that the government
planned to increase the maternity allowance for all women giving
birth in future, but for the time being state resources were limited.
Armenian mothers currently receive a one-off allowance of 35,000
drams (100 dollars), while needy families get 70,000 (200 dollars)
per child.
As part of the new demographic strategy, the government also says it
aims to provide free medical examinations for women, especially those
in rural areas, to launch employment programmes as an incentive to
bring male migrants back to the country and even to introduce a
course of lectures on demography in universities.
Minasian says he believes the new demographic strategy will help
improve the situation in Armenia by 2009.
However, the plan already has many critics, amongst them Stepan
Safarian, a senior expert at the Armenian Centre for National and
Strategic Research, who called the proposals `cosmetic’.
`What are these 200,000 drams gong to give?’ he asked. `It’s just
one-off help and it won’t change the difficult social conditions, in
which a majority of the population lives.’
Aram Sarkisian said the `the government’s steps looked like more like
a pre-election stunt than a serious concept’.
`We need fundamental changes, we need a special state fund to support
young families,’ he said. `But I don’t think that our government of
ultra-liberals is capable of making this kind of move, which need to
be made by Social Democrats.’
Yerevan resident Anna Harutyunian, 30, said she was not encouraged by
the new government plans. `Look, Russia provides mothers with a
benefit for a second child, here we are offered help only for a third
child and even this is not for all families, but only for the most
needy,’ she said. `I have one child and will think twice before I
decide to give birth to another. You’ve got to put them on their
feet, give them am education.’
Naira Melkumian is a freelance journalist based in Yerevan.