Author: Emil Lazarian

This has been a historic week in the South Caucasus. For Azerbaijan and Armenia, one chapter in a long and often deadly story has ended. Now both sides must look toward the future.
After intense fighting in the region in the early 1990s, Armenia ended up occupying a sizable area of Azerbaijan, including the Karabakh region, for almost three decades. During this period, Yerevan propped up a separatist government, the so-called “Republic of Artsakh,” led by ethnic Armenians and not recognized by any other country in the world.
During the 2020 Karabakh War, Azerbaijan regained control of most of its territory. The resulting ceasefire agreement left a small section of Karabakh out of the hands of Baku and under the supervision of a Russian peacekeeping force.
On Sept. 19 this year, Azerbaijan launched a military operation to retake the remaining parts of Karabakh. The Russian peacekeepers on the ground sat idly by and did nothing. In less than 24 hours, a ceasefire was agreed and the Armenian forces, and Armenian-backed separatists, laid down their weapons.
For international observers of the South Caucasus, what has happened in the past few weeks in Karabakh should not have come as a surprise. There are a few factors that led to the recent events. Firstly, there is a perception that Russia is weak in the region right now as a result of its quagmire in Ukraine. Azerbaijan was never happy with the presence of Russian troops on its territory in the aftermath of the 2020 Karabakh War, and Baku has been looking for the right time to make a move that might lead to their departure from the region.
Secondly, “presidential elections” for the so-called “Republic of Artsakh” were held by the Armenian separatists in Karabakh this month. Unsurprisingly, Azerbaijan considered these elections to be illegal and needlessly provocative. They were not alone in this. There were also strong statements of condemnation from the Council of Europe, the EU, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and the Organization of Turkic States.
Thirdly, there was the issue of transit links. For countries such as Azerbaijan located in the heart of Eurasia, transport connections to the outside world are key. As part of the agreement that ended the 2020 war, Azerbaijan committed itself to building a new road connecting Armenia with the section of Karabakh under the control of the Russian peacekeepers.
This was accomplished in 2022, a year earlier than was required by the 2020 ceasefire agreement. In return, Armenia pledged to “guarantee the security of transport connections” between Azerbaijan proper and its autonomous Nakhchivan exclave, through Armenia’s Syunik province. This has yet to happen. Understandably, the lack of progress on this promise has frustrated Baku.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, what the world saw play out in Karabakh over the past couple of weeks was the culmination of more than three decades of diplomatic failures. Since the early 1990s, four UN Security Council resolutions were passed calling for the “cessation of all hostilities and the immediate, complete and unconditional withdrawal of the occupying forces” from Azerbaijan. None were ever enforced.
The war in 2020 should have served as a wake-up call for the international community to redouble its efforts to find a long-lasting and durable peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but all efforts failed.

Azerbaijan must now ensure that ethnic Armenians receive all the usual protections afforded to minority groups. 

Luke Coffey

Now that Azerbaijan has restored control over its territory, the hard part begins. Hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis who were forced out of their homes in the 1990s will want to return. Tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians, most of whom will distrust the government in Baku, will need to be integrated into Azerbaijani society.
While there have been many cavalier claims, mainly by commentators in the West, thousands of kilometers away, of genocide and ethnic cleansing taking place in Karabakh, there is so far no evidence that this is taking place. There has been a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians leaving for Armenia but the government of Azerbaijan has made it clear that they can remain if they wish.
Azerbaijan must now ensure that ethnic Armenians who do decide to stay receive all the usual protections afforded to minority groups in dozens of countries around the world, including freedom of religion and the ability to preserve their Armenian language and culture. Considering the diversity that already exists in modern-day Azerbaijan, there is no reason to assume that this would be a problem. But it will take years for trust to be restored.
As with any conflict, there are winners and losers. Azerbaijan is obviously a clear winner. Turkiye, as Azerbaijan’s top ally, is also a winner. Russia and Iran are the losers in the aftermath of the recent fighting.
For Moscow, its influence in the South Caucasus is waning as its problems in Ukraine continue to mount. Tehran, meanwhile, has maintained a cozy relationship with Armenia for years in an attempt to undermine Azerbaijan’s influence in the South Caucasus. This will now be more difficult.
The outcome of the conflict for Armenia is complicated, especially when we consider the long term. On one hand, its armed forces have been devastated and there is a feeling of betrayal by Moscow, its top military and economic ally.
However, it is quite possible that the normalization process and peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan (and someday between Armenia and Turkiye) could create new economic opportunities in the region. Now that the conflict is over, international investors might be willing to channel billions of dollars in direct investment to the region. As residents of the poorest country in the region, the Armenian people need this.
As the Armenians find peace with their neighbors, their reliance on Russia might diminish. This could create an opportunity for Yerevan to move closer to the Euro-Atlantic community. However, this will not happen quickly and will likely require a generational change in Armenian society.
On Oct. 5, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet in the Spanish city of Granada during a summit of the European Political Community. It is too early to speculate what the outcome of this meeting might be. However, let us hope it is the beginning of what will be a process that brings peace, stability and economic prosperity to the South Caucasus.
For too long this region has suffered. The international community should redouble its efforts to get all sides around a table and find a lasting peace.

• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey

• At least 70,000 ethnic Armenians have fled the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh this week.
• Azerbaijan gained full control of the contested area after a surprise military attack last week.
• Now, the line of cars bringing Armenian refugees to Armenia is so long that it's visible from space.

Tens of thousands of refugees have fled the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in the last week, leaving a traffic jam between Azerbaijan and Armenia so long that it's visible from space.

At least 70,000 ethnic Armenians have fled the territory, which was under a separatist rule associated with Armenia, while internationally, the area has been recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan, per The New York Times.

In a military attack last week, Azerbaijan seized control of the entire territory, driving out many of the 120,000 ethnic Armenians and the separatist Armenian administration, causing a mass exodus of families so large that the traffic jam was visible from space.

Satellite imagery from Maxar taken on September 26 showed a long line of cars along the Lachin corridor, as Armenians and troops left Stepanakert, and headed into mainland Armenia in fear of ethnic persecution from Azerbaijan.

The mass outpour of refugees has intensified in recent days, with locals taking their bare essentials with them. The number of refugees is expected to rise significantly in the coming days, the Times reported.

By September 20, the separatist Armenian leader of the territory signed a decree dissolving the local government and asking Armenian troops to disarm, handing over the territory in exchange for safe passage for ethnic Armenians returning to Armenia, according to the Associated Press.

In 1994, after a six-year separatist struggle and the end of the Soviet Union, the territory was largely governed by an ethnic Armenian government backed by Armenia.

Internationally it was recognized as Azerbaijan's territory.

But by 2020, and several wars later, Azerbaijan regained large amounts of the land in a six-week war, where Russia helped negotiate a peace deal that largely fell in Azerbaijan's favor.

As part of the deal, Russia installed 2,000 peacekeepers along the Armenian border with Turkey and Azerbaijan, meant to quell future conflicts. 

But Azerbaijan's recent aggression largely went unchallenged.

Last week, Armenian officials accused Azerbaijan of blowing up an oil depot that killed dozens and restricted peoples' abilities to flee by car, according to the Daily Beast.

But by 2020, and several wars later, Azerbaijan regained large amounts of the land in a six-week war, where Russia helped negotiate a peace deal that largely fell in Azerbaijan's favor.

As part of the deal, Russia installed 2,000 peacekeepers along the Armenian border with Turkey and Azerbaijan, meant to quell future conflicts. 

But Azerbaijan's recent aggression largely went unchallenged.

Last week, Armenian officials accused Azerbaijan of blowing up an oil depot that killed dozens and restricted peoples' abilities to flee by car, according to the Daily Beast.

Tens of thousands of people have fled Nagorno-Karabakh for Armenia after Azerbaijan launched an offensive to take back full control of the breakaway region.

Nagorno-Karabakh lies within Azerbaijan's borders but for decades has operated autonomously with a de facto government of its own.

The short offensive ended in a Russia-brokered ceasefire in which separatist Armenian fighters agreed to surrender and lay down their arms. Azerbaijan says Karabakh Armenians can remain in the region if they accept Azerbaijani citizenship, but many people have preferred to leave their homes.

The landlocked mountainous region is home to 120,000 ethnic Armenians who make up the majority of the population.

Azerbaijan says it will guarantee the rights of those living in the region. But Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and international experts have repeatedly warned of the risk of ethnic cleansing.

The self-declared republic will cease to exist from next year after its president, Samvel Shahramanyan, signed a decree dissolving state institutions.

See all the photos at 

ROME, Sept 30 (Reuters) – Armenia has asked the European Union for assistance to help it deal with refugees arriving from Nagorno-Karabakh since Azerbaijan took back control of the region last week, the office of Italy's prime minister said on Saturday.

Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but is populated mainly by Armenian Christians who set up the self-styled Republic of Artsakh three decades ago after a bloody ethnic conflict as the Soviet Union collapsed.

More than 100,000 refugees have arrived in Armenia since Azerbaijan launched a military operation to retake control of Nagorno-Karabakh, the head of the U.N. refugee agency (UNHCR) said late on Friday.

Armenia has asked the EU for temporary shelters and medical supplies, the Italian prime minister's office said in a statement, adding that Rome working to promote stabilisation in the region.

At least 100,000 people have now fled the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karbakh – more than four-fifths of the population – since Azerbaijan reclaimed the territory in a lightening offensive, authorities in neighboring Armenia said.

The rapid exodus has prompted the United Nations to send its first mission to the territory in about 30 years.

Stephane Dujarric, the spokesman for the UN Secretary-General, said the UN team on the ground would “identify the humanitarian needs for both people remaining and the people that are on the move.”

Though internationally seen as part of Azerbaijan, the Armenian-majority Nagorno-Karbakh had spent decades under the control of a separatist, de facto government until Azerbaijan’s victory last week. The former breakaway republic will cease to exist as of next year.

Azerbaijan has long been clear about the choice confronting Karabakh Armenians: Stay and accept Azerbaijani citizenship, or leave.

As of Saturday morning, 100,417 people had been “forcibly displaced,” the Armenian prime minister’s spokeswoman, Nazeli Baghdasaryan, told reporters.

Armenian authorities have responded to the outflux of people by asking the International Court of Justice, a judicial arm of the UN, to tell Azerbaijan to withdraw its troops – citing fears of “punitive actions.”

They requested the court order Azerbaijan to “withdraw all military and law-enforcement personnel from all civilian establishments in Nagorno-Karabakh,” while refraining from “taking any actions directly or indirectly” that would have the effect of displacing the remaining ethnic Armenians or preventing those who fled from returning.

Azerbaijan should also allow people to leave the region “without any hindrance” if they wanted to, the Armenian authorities demanded.

Armenia also asked the court to direct Azerbaijan to grant the UN and the Red Cross access to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan should “refrain from taking punitive actions against the current or former political representatives or military personnel of Nagorno-Karabakh,” the Armenian authorities said.

The appeal comes as Azerbaijani state media reported Friday that the security services in the country had detained two former commanders of the self-proclaimed “Republic of Artsakh’s” military.

Loven Mnatsakanyan and Davit Manukyan were intercepted while attempting to cross from Nagorno-Karabakh into Armenia via the Lachin Corridor, the one road connecting the landlocked enclave to Armenia.

Mnatsakanyan, who reportedly served as defense minister from 2015 to 2018, was arrested Friday and taken to the Azebaijani capital of Baku, according to state media. He was accused of illegally entering its territory.

Manukyan, who reportedly served as the former deputy commander of Nagorno-Karbakh’s armed forces, was detained Wednesday, Azerbaijani state media reported.

He was accused of engaging in terrorism, setting up illegal armed groups, illegal possession of a firearm, and illegally entering Azerbaijan, though no evidence was presented to support the claims.

A video published by Azerbaijan’s State Security Service showing Manukyan in Azerbaijani detention could not be independently verified by CNN.

The announcement of the arrests came after the indictment of prominent Nagorno-Karabakh politician and businessman Ruben Vardanyan on multiple charges in Azerbaijan Thursday after being detained while trying to cross into Armenia the day before, according to state media citing the Azerbaijani State Security Service.

A former Minister of State of the self-proclaimed republic, Vardanyan is accused of financing terrorism, participating in the creation and activities of illegal armed groups, and illegally crossing Azerbaijani borders, according to state media. Azerbaijan has not presented evidence to support its claims.

On Thursday, local politician David Babayan, an adviser to Samvel Shahramanyan, the president of the self-styled “Republic of Artsakh,” wrote on Telegram that he would hand himself over to Azerbaijan.

“My failure to appear, or worse, my escape, will cause serious harm to our long-suffering nation, to many people, and I, as an honest person, hard worker, patriot and Christian, cannot allow this,” Babayan wrote.

Armenia has filed a lawsuit against Azerbaijan in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), according to a press release from The Hague published Sept. 29.

The request calls on the court to uphold the rights protected under the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (CERD).

Armenia's suit asks the ICJ to impose new demands on Azerbaijan in addition to reinforcing its obligations under previous orders.

The new demands include the complete withdrawal of military and law enforcement personnel from civilian establishments in Nagorno-Karabakh and the facilitation of humanitarian aid deliveries to ethnic Armenians in the region.

It also calls on Azerbaijan to "refrain from taking any actions directly or indirectly aimed at…displacing the remaining ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh."

On Sept. 19, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive against the ethnically Armenian region of Nagorno-Karabakh. After a day of fighting, authorities in the capital of Stepanakert (Khankendi in Azerbaijani) agreed to accept a ceasefire on Sept. 20 mediated by Russia.

Yerevan denounced the offensive as part of a policy of "ethnic cleansing."

On Oct. 5, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will meet in Spain to hold talks along with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and European Council President Charles Michel.