Author: Emil Lazarian

Poland Must Strive to Make Sure Eastern Europe’s Role Is Appreciated by Nato and EU Strategists
Polish News Bulletin
Sep 07, 2005
The following is a summary of an article, featured in Rzeczpospolita,
by Stanislaw Koziej, retired general and expert on military matters.
Poland’s security has recently come to be perceived, writes Koziej,
almost solely in the context of the fight against terrorism and the
proliferation of the weapons of mass destruction. It would, however,
be a mistake to focus only on this dimension. The events in Ukraine
and Belarus and Russia’s policy towards Poland have made that clear.
We need to keep monitoring the situation in the East.
The area between the Nato and the EU, on the one hand, and Russia,
on the other, is a strategic region of key significance for global
security. In terms of global opportunities and threats, it is the
second most important, after the Middle East, strategic area in the
world. Here lie the possibilities of building a security system
encompassing Europe and North America. But here too the greatest
threats may arise, including the threat of a nuclear war.
That is because of the presence of the third, besides the Nato and
the EU, actor of European security, ie Russia. Analysts have been
labouring to find an answer to the question about the direction in
which events will likely go in Russia. Will it be a constructive and
active strategic partner in the building of a common security system,
or will it focus chiefly on its transformation from an empire into
a free-market democracy? Will those processes be gradual and quiet,
or should we be expecting dramatic, or even bleak scenarios? – Risk
of Chaos
The lack of immediate answers to such questions defines the nature of
the Nato’s and the EU’s strategic needs in this area. The fundamental
question is whether Russia will be a partner or an adversary. Will
it be possible to build common security with it, or will it remain a
source of instability? The Nato and the EU are declaring they want
to have Russia as a partner. That has fundamental significance for
Poland from the point of view of its security interests. But it takes
two to create a partnership.
Yet Russia has continued perceiving the West, and especially the
Nato, as a suspect partner or a potential opponent. Perhaps it
is only tactics; in practice, Russia has participated, on a scale
consistent with its capacities, in peacekeeping missions. Still,
there is no guarantee that Russia’s strategic political course will
not radicalise itself. The Kremlin’s recent moves in domestic policy
and in policy towards Poland offer little cause for optimism.
The second strategic factor in this area is Ukraine. The existence of
a democratic Ukraine, a favourable development of its partnership with
the West, including the prospect of Nato accession, ensure strategic
equilibrium in Eastern Europe and are consistent with Poland’s
strategic interests. Poland should be supporting the development of
that partnership, as well as supporting Ukraine in its path towards
democracy and prosperity.
Another aspect of the strategic situation in Eastern Europe is
Belarus. In itself, it does not represent any significant strategic
problem for either the Nato or the EU, but it may become a serious
problem for Poland. Its natural gravitation towards Russia may
pass through various phases, but that is a matter of the Belarussian
people’s and state’s sovereign decisions. A potential full integration
with Russia would change little in the strategic sense compared with
the present.
The situation could change if Belarus embarked, like Ukraine, on a
course towards full sovereignty. In such a case, the reaction from
Russia would likely be even more vigorous than with Ukraine. But
that prospect seems rather distant today. Strategically, Russia and
Belarus can be treated as one. – Asian Challenge
A separate challenge for the Nato and the EU is posed by the situation
in the Northern Caucasus post-Soviet states bound with the Nato by
the Partnership for Peace: Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, where
ethnic conflicts have continued to smoulder in Abkhasia, Southern
Osetya, and Karabakh. The same may become true for the Central Asian
republics. The peacekeeping missions carried out there by Russia
under the auspices of the CIS have been ineffective.
The CIS has no future. It lacks strength, dynamism, and, above all,
its members’ political will to work effectively together. The countries
stricken by conflicts will not be able to solve those conflicts by
themselves, so pressure will be growing on international organisations,
especially the Nato, to participate actively in solving them. It
will be hard for the Nato to evade this challenge, and this aspect
should be taken into consideration in the debate on the organisation’s
new strategy.
The Eastern European strategic area represents a whole range of
opportunities, challenges, and threats. Those are opportunities and
challenges related to cooperation in expanding the area of common
security, as well as to the need for becoming involved in the solving
of local conflicts. Poland has to strive actively for those issues
to be taken into account on a permanent basis in the Nato’s and the
EU’s strategic concepts and current security policies.

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Billionaire Kerkorian raising stake in GM to 9.5%
After completing stock purchases, his Tracinda Corp. will control 53.8
million shares of the automaker
The Detroit News
Friday, September 2, 2005
By Jeff Green / Bloomberg News
Billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian will spend about $463 million to
raise his stake in General Motors Corp. to 9.53 percent in a bet that GM
can end losses that totaled $1.4 billion so far this year.
Kerkorian’s Tracinda Corp., GM’s third-largest shareholder, said in a
regulatory filing that it will increase its stake in the world’s biggest
automaker from about 7.2 percent with the purchase of 13.1 million
shares in three private transactions. After the purchases, he will
control 53.8 million of the shares.
Kerkorian, who sparked the biggest one-day jump in GM shares in 40 years
when he first disclosed his ownership in May, is stepping up purchases
after he failed to get as many shares as he hoped in a tender offer in
June. He’s buying the stock just as the sales gains sparked by GM’s
offer of employee discounts to all buyers are starting to wane.
“There’s so many problems there, he’s got to think that he’s got an
answer and that he can influence the company or that they’ll just pay
him to go away,” said Brian Bruce, who helps manage $18 billion in
equity, including GM shares, at PanAgora Asset Management in Boston.
“You’re not buying this because you think management has a good handle
on what they’re doing.”
Los Angeles-based Tracinda purchased 5 million shares on Aug. 26 for
$175 million and is scheduled to complete a purchase of 5.14 million
shares today for $183 million, according to the Securities and Exchange
Commission filing. He will buy another 3 million shares Tuesday for $105
million. Tracinda also entered into a $400 million credit facility with
Bank of America Corp.
Kerkorian paid from $35 to $35.71 per share in private transactions,
Tracinda said. Kerkorian, who controlled 22 million GM shares in early
May, originally offered $31 per share to buy an additional 28 million.
That tender offer expired June 7 with only about 40.7 million shares
purchased.
Kerkorian disclosed the new purchases the same day GM said its August
U.S. sales fell 13 percent, ending two straight months of gains driven
by its employee-discount offer.
The investment comes after GM lost $3 billion building cars and trucks
in the first half of this year as it cut production and paid higher
incentive and marketing costs to clear out unsold inventory. Chief
Executive Rick Wagoner this week said the outlook for 2006 is improving
as new models are expected to increase U.S. sales and material and
health-care costs may fall.
Kerkorian a decade ago launched a failed takeover bid for the former
Chrysler Corp. — now part of DaimlerChrysler AG — and won concessions
that included a representative on the Chrysler board. When he disclosed
that he was buying shares in Detroit-based GM, the news pushed up the
automaker’s stock 18 percent.
Kerkorian has said his investment in GM is “passive,” and on that basis,
GM’s board took a neutral stance on his original purchase. GM
spokeswoman Toni Simonetti said that GM does not comment on the actions
of individual shareholders.
Kerkorian will invest $276 million of his own money and borrow about
$187 million from Bank of America. The loans are unsecured. If the loan
balance exceeds $200 million, Kerkorian will be required to pledge the
GM shares as collateral, according to the filing.
The loan’s terms prevent Tracinda from making hostile transactions or
buying in excess of 10 percent of a company without permission of Bank
of America.
Kerkorian remains the third-largest GM shareholder after State Street
Corp. and Capital Research and Management, according to Bloomberg data.
GM’s large investors, including Capital, Brandes Investment Partners LP
and Southeastern Asset Management Inc., increased their holdings in the
first quarter by a combined 64 million shares as the stock hit a 13-year
low.
GM shares fell $1.22 to $32.07 Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange.
Through Wednesday, GM shares had risen 23 percent from the day before
Kerkorian first announced plans to acquire GM stock.

TURKEY TO BE OFFERED TO SOLVE PROBLEM OF NORMALIZING ITS
RELATIONS WITH NEIGHBORS DURING FORTHCOMING NEGOTIATIONS ON ITS
ACCESSION TO EU: OSCE ACTING CHAIRMAN
YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 6. ARMINFO. Turkey will be offered to solve the
problem of establishing relations with neighbors, including with
Armenia, during the forthcoming negotiations on its accession to
the European Union. It will make real Armenia’s cooperation with
Azerbaijan, stated the OSCE acting chairman, Slovenia’s Foreign
Minister Dimitrij Rupel during today’s negotiations with Armenia’s
Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan.
As ARMINFO was informed in the governmental press-service, Rupel
supported a viewpoint (based on international experience) according
to which both the establishment of trade and economic relations
with conflict’s parties and the formation of confidence atmosphere
considerably contribute to strengthening of political relations. In
his opinion, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement has become more
realizable within the framework of his present visit’s meetings in
Baku and Yerevan, despite the fact that there are some difficulties
in connection with the forthcoming parliamentary elections in
Azerbaijan. Rupel noted that he is informed with the process of
democratic reforms in Armenia. He estimated positively the process
of constitutional reforms meaning that Armenia tries to make its
legislative structures more corresponding to European standards.

YUNUSOV: KARABAKH CONFLICT SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS MATHEMATICAL PROBLEM
Pan Armenian News
06.09.2005 05:01
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ “There have been many options of Nagorno Karabakh
settlement (“common state,” “stepwise resolution,” “package one,”
etc.), however these are not the core in actual fact. One must
not treat the settlement of the Karabakh conflict as solution of
a mathematical problem,” head of the Department of Conflictology
and Migration of the Institute of Peace and Democracy Arif Yunusov
stated in an interview with PanARMENIAN.Net. In his words, the
fate of two – exactly two and not one – peoples is the point. The
solution should be in a form that, in case of not satisfying, would
not cause a mass negative response of any of the parties. “Why is the
current stage doomed to failure? It is based on the proposal to hold
a referendum. Maybe after certain time has passed, but the holding of
it. Formally, it is a quite democratic proposal. However, our societies
are not democratic and one should clearly understand it. E.g. Azeri
authorities at first tried to conceal the fact of the referendum
itself. When they did not manage it, they tried to pretend as if there
is nothing important here and it is not known what will be taking place
in our region in 10-15 years. Having observed the negative response
to the idea of a referendum, our FM stated there will be no referendum
and it is provocation of certain forces. I.e. this crucially important
issue is concealed from own people,” the Azeri expert noted. On the
other hand, A. Yunusov added, the Karabakh conflict has to do with the
mentality of both peoples. “Materials are often published in Armenia,
saying that authorities make the situation in Azerbaijan tense, while
people “do not with to fight for alien Karabakh.” It is a thoroughly
erroneous opinion.” In his words, “authorities write much about lost
lands in Armenia, however, this does not find a serious response in
the hearts of Azeris, as indeed there is no serious connection with
contemporary Armenia in the Azeri mentality.” “And there is such in
case of Karabakh. The same is true concerning the Armenian identity
regarding Karabakh. Thus, the settlement of the conflict should be
a not traditional one. I do not see a solution of the kind at the
moment. I suppose simultaneous to democratization – a real one, not
a declarative one – the solution of the kind will be found. First of
all, simultaneous to the strengthening of the institutions of local
government bodies (municipalities) and communities. In other words,
we need to get rid of soviet or eastern political system as soon as
possible and transfer to western political system. Then the borders
will stop playing a key role,” A. Yunusov summed up.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ARMENIA APPRECIATES ICRC’S HUMANITARIAN ACTIVITIES
ARKA News Agency, Armenia
Sept 6 2005
YEREVAN, September 6. /ARKA/. RA Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan
held a meeting with the newly appointed Head of the mission of the
International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to Armenia Yves
Arnoldy. Minister Oskanyan appreciated the ICRC’s humanitarian
activities in Armenia. He pointed out that Armenia attaches high
importance to the ICRC’s efforts toward exchange of POWs and search
of the persons that went missing as a result of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. In his turn, Arnoldy pointed out that the programs
of teaching the principles of international humanitarian law in
Armenia’s educational institutions launched by the ICRC office will
be continued. P.T. -0–
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

AZERI FOREIGN MINISTER TO TOUCH ON KARABAKH PROBLEM IN AUSTRIA
Bilik Dunyasi news agency
6 Sep 05
Baku: 6 September: Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov
left for Austria yesterday evening.
Mammadyarov said he will talk about the Nagornyy Karabakh problem
in his address to the OSCE’s permanent council in Vienna on 6
September. He will meet the OSCE secretary-general [Ambassador Marc
Perrin de Brichambaut] and members of the permanent council.
Mammadyarov’s official visit to Austria will commence on 7
September. He will meet Austrian President Heinz Fischer and Foreign
Minister Ursula Plassnik. Mammadyarov is also expected to hold talks
at the UN office in Vienna. He will wrap up his visit on 8 September.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

SITTING OF COUNCIL OF EUROPE SUB-COMMITTEE ON NAGORNO KARABAKH TO TAKE PLACE IN PARIS ON 12 SEPTEMBER
Today, Azerbaijan
Sept 6 2005
The second sitting of Council of Europe sub-committee on Nagorno
Karabakh will take place in Paris on 12 September.
According to the information given to APA by the member of the
sub-committee Asim Mollazade, this sitting is of great importance.
“This committee is charged with the execution of the Resolutions
adopted by the Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe and all
the issues concerning the Nagorno Karabakh problem will be discussed
seriously in this meeting. The administration of the Minsk Group
has also been invited to the meeting; they will inform the committee
members about the talks held in the direction of peaceful regulation
of the conflict”.
Asim Mollazade said that the representatives of the OSCE Minsk Group
members countries have been invited to the meeting too. “The meeting
will focus on serious discussions, we shall try to find an answer
to the question “What will the Council of Europe recommend to the
process of talks?” within one day”.
It must be noted that, the head of the lower committee is member
of British parliament, Lord Russell Johnston. Azerbaijan will be
represented by parliamentarians Samad Seyidov and Asim Mollazade.
Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov will attend the meeting in
Paris too.

OSCE CHAIR OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SOLUTION TO NAGORNYY KARABAKH
STA news agency, Ljubljana
6 Sep 05
Yerevan, 6 September: There is a window of opportunity for Nagornyy
Karabakh, so it would be good if talks continue with a view to a
solution “in the not so distant future”, OSCE chairman Dimitrij Rupel
said as he came out of a meeting with the leader of unrecognized
Nagornyy Karabakh Arkadiy Gukasyan in Yerevan late on Monday
[5 September].
Slovene Foreign Minister Rupel, who began a two-day tour of Azerbaijan
and Armenia to discuss Nagornyy Karabakh on Monday, considers
it feasible for a solution to take into account both territorial
integrity of a country and self-determination of the nations.
“I can see no contradiction here,” said Rupel, who did not rule out
the possibility of finding a solution this year. Yet this would take
“a lot of good will”, especially since Azerbaijan is gearing up for
a general election, he added.
Asked whether Nagornyy Karabakh could be included in the talks, Rupel
said “there is a solid format for debates”. He referred to the Minsk
Group, which is a mediator between the sides in dispute, as well as
talks between the presidents and FMs of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
“Personally, I’m willing to talk to everyone in order to achieve some
result,” Rupel told the press last evening.
In a separate statement to the press, Gukasyan urged for a format
of talks involving all three sides, namely Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Nagornyy Karabakh. “As far as I know, the OSCE wishes the same,
but the situation is deadlocked because of Azerbaijan’s opposition.”
Regardless of what solution comes out of the negotiating process,
the political leader of the unrecognized enclave located in the
southwest of Azerbaijan, stressed that the security of Nagornyy
Karabakh, mainly populated by ethnic Armenians, was the first priority.
After visiting Azerbaijan yesterday, Rupel is continuing his visit in
Armenia on Tuesday, when he is scheduled to meet Armenian President
Robert Kocharyan, FM Vardan Oskanyan, PM Andranik Markaryan and
representatives of NGOs.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

SAXONIA-ANHALT TERRITORY AND ARMENIA TO SIGN AGREEMENT ON COOPERATION
Pan Armenian News
05.09.2005 08:37
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian met
with Minister of Culture of the German Saxonia-Anhalt Territory Yan
Heinrich Olberz, who arrived in Armenia with an official delegation,
RA MFA press service reported. During the meeting the parties
expressed satisfaction with the bilateral cooperation. The RA FM
highly appreciated the programs of exchange of students, teachers,
scientists and schoolchildren. Within the framework of the Cultural
Days held in Yerevan September 3-7 German romance evenings and a week
of German movies will be organized in Yerevan Moscow cinema. Besides,
Magdenburg puppet show will give performance in puppet show after
H. Tumanian. The members of the German delegation will meet with
the Armenian Culture and Youth Affairs Minister Hovik Hoveyan and
Minister of Education Sergo Yeritsyan. At the end of the events the
sides are expected to sign an agreement on cooperation in cultural,
scientific and education sphere.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress